Steve Bull's Blog, page 223

The Age of Exterminations VIII — How to Destroy Western E...

The Age of Exterminations VIII — How to Destroy Western Europe US Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morgenthau Jr., (1891-1967). He was the proposer of the “Morgenthau Plan” that would have turned post-war Germany into a purely agricultural region, exterminating tens of millions of Germans in the process. Initially approved by President Roosevelt, fortunately, the plan was never put into practice. 

After that Germany surrendered, in 1945, the general attitude of the Allies was that the Germans deserved to be punished. One of the results was that the Allies deliberately limited the supply of food to Germany. Among other things, in the book titled The Death and Life of Germany,” (1959) Eugene Davidson reports how the US military authorities explicitly ordered the American servicemen in Germany, and their wives, to destroy the leftovers of their meals. They wanted to be sure that nothing would be left for their German maids and their families.

This attitude of the Allies predated the German defeat. In 1944, Henry Morgenthau Jr., Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, had proposed the plan that would take his name, the “Morgenthau Plan.” The plan called for the complete destruction of Germany’s industrial infrastructure and the transformation of Germany into a purely agricultural society at a medieval technology level. As a consequence, Germany wouldn’t have been able to import food from abroad and that would have resulted in the death of tens of millions of Germans. The Morgenthau Plan was initially approved by President Roosevelt, and it was even publicly diffused in the press. Fortunately for the Germans, it was later abandoned by President Truman, but it remained active as a practical set of guidelines for the allied policies in Germany until 1948. As a result, untold numbers of Germans died as the consequence of starvation…

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Why OpSec Has NEVER Been More Important

Why OpSec Has NEVER Been More Important

If you’ve been in prepper circles for long, you’ve probably heard the term OpSec. It is taken from military jargon and it’s short for Operations Security. In the preparedness and survival world, it generally means not letting other people know that you are prepped, or if they know, they definitely don’t know the specifics of what you have.

Not only do we want to keep the level of our preparedness private, these days, keeping our opinions private might be likewise beneficial from a security perspective. More on that in a moment.

Trigger Warning: There’s no way I can write this article without ticking somebody off. Some readers will feel that I’m siding with the right and others will feel like I’m siding with the left. I’m not because I am not a Democrat or a Republic, nor am I a conservative or a liberal. I’m a critical thinker with diverse opinions that fall into all sorts of categories. Yet others will feel I didn’t go far enough or that there’s some “fact” or conspiracy that I didn’t reveal. I’m not an ice cream cone. I can’t make everyone happy. Also, there may be some swearing.

What is OpSec?

Here’s a definition for those who aren’t familiar with the concept.

Operations security (OPSEC) is a process that identifies critical information to determine if friendly actions can be observed by enemy intelligence, determines if information obtained by adversaries could be interpreted to be useful to them, and then executes selected measures that eliminate or reduce adversary exploitation of friendly critical information.

In a more general sense, OPSEC is the process of protecting individual pieces of data that could be grouped together to give the bigger picture (called aggregation). OPSEC is the protection of critical information deemed mission-essential from military commanders, senior leaders, management or other decision-making bodies…

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THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes

THE WOLF STREET REPORT: Tech Bust Takes Next Step: Layoffs & Hiring Freezes

Dotcom Bust 2 has begun. Only bigger (you can also download the WOLF STREET REPORT wherever you get your podcasts).

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IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil Crunch

IEA: Current Energy Crisis Is “Much Bigger” Than 1970s Oil CrunchIEA Chief Birol: The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s.Back in the 1970s, the crisis was just about oil.Birol: The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel.[image error]

The world faces a “much bigger” energy crisis than the one of the 1970s, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, told German daily Der Spiegel in an interview published on Tuesday.

“Back then it was just about oil,” Birol told the news outlet. “Now we have an oil crisis, a gas crisis and an electricity crisis simultaneously,” said the head of the international agency created after the 1970s shock of the Arab oil embargo.

The energy crisis started in the autumn of last year, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine made it much worse as the markets fear disruption to energy supply out of Russia, while Western governments are imposing increasingly restrictive sanctions on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

The EU agreed late on Monday to ban most of the imports of Russian oil, leaving pipeline supply exempted from the embargo, for now. This will further tighten already tight crude and product markets.

The world, especially Europe, could face a summer of shortages of gasoline, fuel, and jet fuel, the IEA’s Birol told Der Spiegel.

Fuel demand is set to rise as the main holiday season in Europe and the United States begins, Birol added.

Upended crude oil flows add to reduced global refinery capacity resulting in low inventories of products, including in the United States.

Refinery capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic.

The Failure of Imagination — Part 1

The Failure of Imagination — Part 1Image credit: Gerd Altmann via Pixabay

Up until a warm sunny afternoon in May 2019 I had what I would call a rather ordinary concept of the future. I was 37 back then with two little devils — masquerading as my sons — a wife and decent job. I didn’t give too much thought to the fate of this civilization, but when I did, I thought that by the time I grow old I would still be living under the same government structure, behind the same borders, would have a car (most probably with a petrol engine), and the usual digital gimmickry— all under the same climate, or maximum a couple of tenths of centigrade warmer than today. In other words: everything would be just like it were in 2019.

Knowing what I know today  about this civilization’s trajectory, its resources, overshoot, the climate, the state of our ecosystem and the many other predicaments, I had to realize that the future will be a whole lot different than the present or the recent past.

I had to realize that I was a victim of a failed collective imagination.

The current state of affairs starts to remind more and more scholars to the terminal stage of empires long lost. One of the recurring themes in such ages is the ‘failure of imagination’, not only on the side of the elites, but in the case of commoners too. This civilization too, just like the ones preceding it, seems to have lost the capability to imagine any other future for itself other than the continuation of the present, only ‘greener’. The future we are sold would be only slightly different, but certainly better and a whole lot more sustainable than the past (sic!). The alternatives vary around ‘much more’ and ‘helluva lot more’ technology, capitalism and growth.

Less is not an option.

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GLOBAL BANKS PRIVATELY PREPARE FOR‘Dangerous Levels’ of Imminent Civil Unrest in Western Homelands

GLOBAL BANKS PRIVATELY PREPARE FOR‘Dangerous Levels’ of Imminent Civil Unrest in Western HomelandsPortland Protests. Photo: Alamy

Nafeez Ahmed reports on financial institutions preparing for social breakdown as a result of energy and food shocks

Global banks and investment firms are bracing themselves for an “unprecedented” upsurge in civil unrest in the US, UK and Europe as energy and food price spikes are set to drive costs of living to astronomical levels, Byline Times can exclusively reveal.

The information comes from the head of a ‘financial institutions group’ – which provides expertise and advisory services to other banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions – at one of the largest investment firms in the US.

The senior investment executive, who spoke to Byline Times on condition of anonymity because the information he revealed is considered highly sensitive, said that contingency planners at top financial institutions believe “dangerous levels” of social breakdown in the West are now all but inevitable, and imminent. An outbreak of civil unrest is expected to occur anytime this year, but most likely in the coming months as the impact of the cost of living crisis begins to saturate the lives of “everyone”.

Well-to-do middle classes will find it hard to afford staple foods and pay bills. So we are anticipating dangerous levels of civil unrest that could spiral into an unprecedented social crisis

The executive works at a leading Wall Street firm which is considered a systemically important financial institution by the US Financial Stability Board. These are institutions whose functioning is considered critical to the US economy, and whose failure could trigger a financial crisis.

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Six Million Britons Could Face Power Rationing If Russia Cuts Supplies

Six Million Britons Could Face Power Rationing If Russia Cuts Supplies 

Millions of UK households could face a treacherous winter riddled with power blackouts if Russian natural gas supplies to Europe stop, according to The Times, citing a government report.

Officials from Whitehall have drawn up a “reasonable” worst-case scenario, outlining widespread natgas shortages are possible if Russia continues to tighten the supplies to Europe.

A Whitehall source said:

 “As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for every single extreme scenario, however unlikely.

“Britain is well prepared for any supply disruptions. Unlike EU countries, our North Sea gas reserves are being pumped out at full pelt, Norwegian rigs are directly connected into the UK, and we have the second-largest LNG import infrastructure in Europe – whereas Germany has none.”

The model assumes UK natgas imports from Norway could be slashed by half. Then it assumes no imports of natgas from interconnectors in the Netherlands and Belgium, due to protectionist measures. This would cause authorities to shutter UK natgas power plants and energy-intensive industrial facilities to keep natgas flowing to households.

Reducing natgas power generating capacity on the grid would trigger rolling blackouts for six million homes. Rationing of power would be during peak weekdays between 0700-1000 to 1600-2100.

The UK has vowed to phase out Russian fossil fuels and simultaneously extend the lifespan of Somerset nuclear power plant Hinkley Point B for 18 months despite decommissioning plans at the aging facility and extending the life at coal-fired power plants despite the greenifying of the economy (this will outrage climate alarmist Greta Thunberg).

The Whitehall source added: “Given the EU’s historical dependence on Putin’s gas, the winter could be very hard for countries on the continent.”

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BofA: Sharp Decline In Russian Exports Could Send Oil Above $150

BofA: Sharp Decline In Russian Exports Could Send Oil Above $150Analysts: Asian buyers are unlikely to be able to absorb all the Russian oil unwanted in the West.There is a distinct possibility of a sharp drop in Russian oil exports.BofA: A sharp contraction in Russian oil exports could push Brent well past $150/bbl.[image error]

Brent Crude prices could jump to well above $150 per barrel if Russia’s oil exports fall off a cliff in the coming months, according to Bank of America.

“With our $120/bbl Brent target now in sight, we believe that a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports could …. push Brent well past $150/bbl,” analysts at Bank of America (BofA) Global Research wrote in a research note on Friday carried by Reuters.

In a base-case scenario, Bank of America expects Brent Crude prices to average $104.48 a barrel this year and $100 a barrel in 2023.

Early on Friday, Brent Crude was trading at over $117 per barrel, the highest in two months, amid tight fuel supplies globally and bullish prospects of demand with the U.S. driving season beginning with the Memorial Day holiday weekend and Shanghai in China set for gradual reopening from June 1st.

There is a distinct possibility of a sharp drop in Russian oil exports as the EU continues to seek consensus and persuade Hungary to drop its opposition to a Russian oil embargo. Reports have it that some EU member states are inclined to accept a temporary exemption of Russian pipeline supply to central Europe via the Druzhba pipeline from the embargo as a bargaining chip to convince Hungary to agree to a ban on imports of Russian seaborne oil.

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Brent crude rises above $120 a barrel as UK fuel prices hit record highs

Brent crude rises above $120 a barrel as UK fuel prices hit record highs

Price increases on global oil markets and at UK forecourts add to concerns about rising inflation and its impact

Diesel prices in the UK hit a record 182.7p a litre on Saturday, taking the cost of filling up a 55-litre diesel car above £100 for the first time. Photograph: salarko/Alamy

The global oil price has risen above $120 (£94.90) a barrel as record high petrol and diesel prices in the UK add to concerns about the inflationary pressure that families and businesses are facing.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose on Monday to $120 a barrel for the first time since late March, lifted by the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Shanghai and Beijing, a move that could lead to higher demand for energy from China.

The possibility of a European ban on Russian oil imports also pushed up crude prices. European leaders have met to discuss next package of EU sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts said rising oil prices could stir further inflation fears as the world economy absorbed the impact of the war. A sustained rise may also fuel higher profits for energy firms, coming after the UK government announced a £5bn windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas producers to help fund financial support for households struggling with the cost of living.

Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at the financial trading firm OANDA, said: “Markets pricing in peak virus in Beijing and Shanghai are behind the rally in oil prices today, with a China reopening likely leading to increased oil consumption.

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Households Worldwide Wrecked By Soaring Gas Prices

Households Worldwide Wrecked By Soaring Gas Prices 

Soaring commodity prices have been financially devastating for households, devoting larger and larger shares of disposable income to pay for energy.

For instance, at nine California filling stations, the price of regular gas is higher than the federal minimum wage. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy said several gas stations in Los Angeles and San Francisco metro areas had recorded pump prices over the federal minimum wage ($7.25). One station in Los Angeles is now $7.83.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research told CBS News that record-high fuel costs are denting workers’ paychecks. He estimated that the typical US household would spend upwards of $4,800 on gasoline this year, a $2,000 increase over last year. That financial burden is piling up for the working poor and households worldwide.

Bloomberg reports Brazilians are spending a whopping 33% of the monthly minimum wage to fill up a 14.5-gallon fuel tank. The figure is 24% in Mexico, 18% in Argentina, 17% in Chile, and 13% in Colombia.

The US isn’t as bad, only 6%, though notice purchasing power of Americans has drastically fallen in the last two years. In April 2020, one hour of work bought over 17 gallows of Regular gasoline at the pump. Today, an hour of work will only buy 7 gallons of gas in America…

High fuel costs are rapidly eating away at Brazilian wages, causing President Jair Bolsonaro’s popularity to sour. The president has supported legislation to lower taxes and fired three chiefs of the state-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA because of high fuel costs.

In Europe, natural gas and electricity bills are expected to jump from 3.5% to 4.5% of household disposable income. The share of an energy bill that households have to pay continues to increase as Europe’s transition from Russian fossil fuels is bumpy, filled with shortages and elevated prices. This figure doesn’t even include petrol prices at the pump.

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