Steve Bull's Blog, page 197
August 27, 2022
August 26, 2022
Riding the Zeitgeist: A theory of change
‘What I say today everybody will say tomorrow, though they will not remember who put it into their heads. Indeed they will be right for I never remember who puts things into my head : it is the Zeitgeist‘ George Bernard Shaw
The word ‘zeitgeist’, originating with philosopher Hegel, is the descriptor for the spirit of a time. In 2019, a zeitgeist coalesced around the urgent need for climate action, and climate change became an acceptable and predominant point of conversation. There were many influencing factors – Greta Thunberg, Extinction Rebellion, international convention upon international convention, science upon science – but no singular reason for why, in 2019, just about everyone started talking climate. Unconsciously and sub-consciously, this zeitgeist had taken shape through liminal osmosis.
This same zeitgeist now propels big business and governments into ‘climate action’. With support from large sections of the climate-environment movement, techno-fixes that boost GDP and aim to maintain business as usual, are being rolled out under the guise of a ‘renewables’ transition. This ‘spirit of our times’ is a fraught fusion of progress and climate action, failing to recognise that one is the cause for the other.
Zeitgeists, by nature, are ethereal, multifarious, and ill-disciplined creatures, not easily tamed, nor dominated. The current ‘climate action’ zeitgeist, and its fractured nature, is not a fait accompli, but a malleable phenomenon prone to influence and change. As ‘progress’ cannot be sustained and ‘green hyper-growth’ will only destroy the Earth faster than business as usual, the spirt of our times is amenable to shifting – to becoming one less fanciful, and more closely matching reality.
Current zeitgeists now defining the beginning of the 21st century are in hot contention, not least because the era of progress has ended, and the #GreatDescent, well and truly begun…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
China’s Water Crisis Could Trigger Global Catastrophe
China’s water crisis is nothing new, but it’s gotten worse – and is now on the ‘brink of catastrophe‘ and could trigger a global catastrophe, according to Foreign Affairs.
Dried-up riverbed of Jialing river, a Yangtze tributary, China, August 2022Thomas Peter / Reuters
Given the country’s overriding importance to the global economy, potential water-driven disruptions beginning in China would rapidly reverberate through food, energy, and materials markets around the world and create economic and political turbulence for years to come. -Foreign Affairs
For starters, there’s no substitute for water – which is essential for food production, electricity generation and sustaining all life on earth.
In China, which consumes ten billion barrels of water per day (approximately 700x its daily oil consumption), decades of economic and population growth have pushed northern China’s water system to unsustainable levels.
According to the report, the per-capita water supply around the North China Plain at the end of 2020 was nearly 50% below the UN’s definition of acute water scarcity at 253 cubic meters. Other major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, are at similar (or lower) levels.
For comparison, Egypt had per-capita freshwater resources of 570 cubic meters, and has nowhere near as large of a manufacturing base as China.
Not fit for human consumption
Also worrisome, is that 19% of China’s surface water is not fit for human consumption according to China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment. Roughly 7% was deemed unfit for any use at all.
Groundwater was worse – with around 30% considered unfit for consumption, and 16% unfit for any use.
In order to utilize this water, Beijing will need to make major investments in treatment infrastructure, which will require a significant increase in electricity usage in order to power the equipment.
Working against progress is China’s farming and industrial industries, which dump contaminants into the country’s groundwater – potentially setting the stage for decades of additional impairments.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Six months into Ukraine’s collapse, the world has changed forever
Photo Credit: The CradleSix months after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) by Russia in Ukraine, the geopolitical tectonic plates of the 21st century have been dislocated at astonishing speed and depth – with immense historical repercussions already at hand.To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, this is the way the (new) world begins, not with a whimper but a bang.
The cold-blooded assassination of Darya Dugina – terrorism at the gates of Moscow – may have fatefully coincided with the six-month intersection point, but will do nothing to change the dynamics of the current, work-in-progress, historical shift.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) appeared to have cracked the case in a little over 24 hours, designating the perpetrator as a neo-Nazi Azov operative instrumentalized by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) – itself a mere tool of the CIA/MI6 combo that de facto rules Kiev.
The Azov operative is just a patsy. The FSB will never reveal in public the intel it has amassed on those that issued the orders, and how they will be dealt with.
One Ilya Ponomaryov, an anti-Kremlin minor character granted Ukrainian citizenship, boasted he was in contact with the outfit that prepared the hit on the Dugin family. No one took him seriously.
What is manifestly serious, however, is how oligarchy-connected organized crime factions in Russia would have a motive to eliminate Alexander Dugin, the Christian Orthodox nationalist philosopher who, according to them, may have influenced the Kremlin’s pivot to Asia (he didn’t).
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
European Natural Gas Prices Are 6 Times Higher Than Last Year, And This Is Sparking Widespread Civil Unrest All Over Europe
This is going to be a bitterly cold winter for a whole lot of people. In particular, things are likely to get really uncomfortable in Europe. Soaring energy prices and concern about potential shortages are causing anxiety all over the continent, and widespread protests have already started to take place. The cost of living has become extremely painful for those on the bottom of the economic food chain, and people want their governments to do something. Of course this is what always happens when nations embrace socialism. There is an expectation that those in charge will solve any and every problem, but this time around the limitations of the socialists running Europe will become very clear.
Thanks to the war in Ukraine and a number of other factors, the price of natural gas in Europe is now approximately six times higher than it was last year…
European natural gas prices are taking a breather amid further signs that soaring energy costs are crippling economic output, heaping pressure on politicians to resolve the crisis with winter just a few months away.
Benchmark futures retreated after settling at a record high on Monday. Prices are still about six times higher than they were at this time last year, with the panic spreading across nations ahead of peak winter demand.
Needless to say, many in Europe are being completely stunned by the size of their energy bills, and a massive backlash has been brewing.
In fact, we are already starting to see very large protests in a number of different countries…
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 25, 2022
Ukrainian Nuclear Plant Was Cut From Power Grid For 1st Time In History
Things have gone from bad to worse at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with the looming scenario of much of Ukraine facing a giant blackout.
“The last two working reactors at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were disconnected from Ukraine’s electricity grid on Thursday after nearby fires damaged overhead power lines, Ukraine’s state nuclear company Energoatom said,” Reuters reports, further giving subsequent confirmation that the whole power plant has been disconnected from the power grid Thursday for the first time in its history.
The connectivity monitoring group NetBlocks is also confirming a major disruption to all communications at the plant following Ukrainian state enterprise Energoatom announcing its been completely disconnected from the power grid.
Via ReutersReportedly the disconnection was due to fires as nearby ash pits, which Energoatom in its statement blamed on Russian forces: “The actions of the invaders caused a complete disconnection of the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) from the power grid – the first in the history of the plant,” it wrote.
But in follow-up, the Russian-installed regional governor announced that “at the moment, the power supply to all cities and districts of the Zaporizhzhia region has been restored” following the disruptions, suggesting that there was a major temporary power outage across the region. It appears the power supply disruption was temporary:
IAEA SAYS UKRAINE TOLD IT THAT ZAPORIZHZHIA AT LEAST TWICE LOST CONNECTION TO THE POWER LINE DURING THE DAY BUT THAT IT WAS CURRENTLY UP AGAIN
According to further statements being reported by CNN:
In a separate statement, Ukraine’s State Inspection of Nuclear Regulation, which cited the nuclear operator Energoatom, said a power line from the plant was disconnected due to hostilities in the area.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
August 24, 2022
Water Worries and Drought Tolerant Plants
Image by authorWater Worries and Drought Tolerant PlantsA Summer Update from Shipka
This summer has been incredibly hot and dry, and even some of the older and more established trees have looked under strain. With increasing periods of hot and dry weather and pressure on both the mains water supply and our perennial source from the river, designing our gardens to be as resilient as possible seems the best way forward. During this post, we’ll be looking at the challenges we’ve faced this season with our usual water supply and take a look at some useful drought tolerant plants that have faired well in dry and hot conditions.
Our project is located in the town of Shipka on the foothills of the Balkan mountains in central Bulgaria. As such our gardens have a gradient that means we can benefit from a gravity-fed perennial water source, a local mountain stream. The stream water can be diverted into purpose-built cement channels that run down the sides of many of the streets and under roads, making this water accessible for many households. It can also be diverted into the fields. It’s an incredible system although somewhat neglected. All of our gardens were designed to take advantage of this resource. In the image below you can see the main path of the stream through the mountain, and then the diversion created. The highlighted plot here is one of our gardens, Phronesis. There is approximately a 3m drop from the north to the south of the plot and the slope is more or less even from east to west.
Image by authorThe mountain stream can be diverted into the site from the north…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Why No Politician Is Willing to Tell Us the Real Energy Story
No politician wants to tell us the real story of fossil fuel depletion. The real story is that we are already running short of oil, coal and natural gas because the direct and indirect costs of extraction are reaching a point where the selling price of food and other basic necessities needs to be unacceptably high to make the overall economic system work. At the same time, wind and solar and other “clean energy” sources are nowhere nearly able to substitute for the quantity of fossil fuels being lost.
This unfortunate energy story is essentially a physics problem. Energy per capita and, in fact, resources per capita, must stay high enough for an economy’s growing population. When this does not happen, history shows that civilizations tend to collapse.
Figure 1. World fossil fuel energy consumption per capita, based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.Politicians cannot possibly admit that today’s world economy is headed for collapse, in a way similar to that of prior civilizations. Instead, they need to provide the illusion that they are in charge. The self-organizing system somehow leads politicians to put forward reasons why the changes ahead might be desirable (to avert climate change), or at least temporary (because of sanctions against Russia).
In this post, I will try to try to explain at least a few of the issues involved.
[1] Citizens around the world can sense that something is very wrong. It looks like the economy may be headed for a serious recession in the near term.
Figure 2. Index of consumer sentiment and news heard of company changes as reported by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, based on preliminary indications for August 2022.…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
Cheap Places to Get Quality Preps
By the author of The Ultimate Guide to Frugal Living and the online course Build a Better Pantry on a BudgetIf you’re like most folks, getting a good deal on your preps is of the utmost importance right now. With the economy collapsing around our ears, many of us are working to make ends meet and don’t have a lot left over for prepping.
So where can you get preps without spending a fortune? Keep in mind that shopping for preps specifically or in kits is probably the most expensive way to buy. But if you can assemble your prepping kits and essential tools from individual purchases, you can probably spend far less.
This list contains some ideas that may work for you. Some of them are ideas taken straight from the comments section, so shout-out to our awesome readers! Do your due diligence with any of these sources and make sure not to buy something there that might be less expensive elsewhere. Just because it says it’s a sale doesn’t mean it’s a bargain.
Surplus and liquidation stores
There are many different kinds of surplus and liquidation stores, and if you are lucky enough to live or work near one, make it a regular stop when you’re out and about. The thing about surplus stores is that they get new inventory all the time, and you just never know what you’ll find.
Military surplus stores can be a great place to get sturdy gear that will hold up to the workout you put it through. Don’t stop with just army surplus stores, though.
There are some chain stores that often have incredible deals.
Big LotsOlliesOcean State Job LotsMardensLiquidation WorldDiscount groceriesHarbor Freight…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
The Fed Can’t Stop Supply-Side Inflation
The Fed and other central banks have zero control of supply-driven inflation, period.
America’s financial punditry is bewitched by four fatal fantasies:
1. Inflation is demand-driven. If the Federal Reserve (or other central banks) reduce demand with monetary tools like raising interest rates, inflation will cool.
2. Substitution of high-cost goods with lower-cost goods reduces inflation, and substitution is infinite: there’s always cheaper chicken if beef gets too pricey.
3. Higher prices will lead suppliers to increase production, which will increase supply and reduce prices.
4. The Federal Reserve has control of all these inflation-reducing dynamics via interest rates and its balance sheet (buying or selling various durations of Treasury bonds).
All of these are fantasies, fantasies that are fatal because they’re flat-out false. The Fed has no control over supply-driven inflation, which is what we have now. Consider eggs. The price has skyrocketed not because consumers suddenly ramped up demand that is now outstripping supply, but because essential inputs to supply such as feed and energy have soared in price and constraints that have nothing to do with interest rates such as the spread of bird viruses.
These essential inputs are going up in cost due to factors completely unrelated to interest rates or monetary policy. Drought and weather extremes are constraining the supply of animal feed stocks, and energy prices are being driven by geopolitical forces completely outside central bank control.
Infinite substitution is also false. What’s the substitute for eggs? Silkworm goo squeezed into plastic eggs? Well, not yet… there are no substitutes for eggs. And with the soaring input costs of producing chickens, chicken is no longer that cheap.
…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…
