Turney Duff's Blog, page 5
April 29, 2016
How bad is it on Wall Street? Like no more third home in Hawaii bad
Wall Street used to be brazen about its spending. Traders would spend large amounts of money to attain or maintain a certain social status. It was like “Keeping up with the Paul Tudor Joneses.”
But there’s been a shift happening over the last decade. I did an informal poll of 50 Wall Street professionals and the collective response was that spending habits have changed.
“There’s a lot less peacocking going on these days,” said Rick, a hedge-fund trader. (Peacocking, as in strutting your stuff like a peacock.)
There are several reasons for the change: 1) The average Wall Street bonus fell 9 percent in 2015 to the lowest level in three years, according to an annual report by the New York State Comptroller, 2) Fear of job security, 3) Fear of a downshift in the economy and 4) “Street shame”—the idea that, in an economic downturn when people are suffering, it’s shameful to be openly extravagant.
April 1, 2016
What’s driving Wall Street to the Hamptons? Fear
Phones in tiny real-estate offices on every Main Street in the Hamptons have started to ring. It’s that time of year again: When Wall Street starts vigorously making plans to travel east for the summer.
Last summer was good for Hamptons business owners: A fresh breeze of optimism blew through Wall Street as the economy started to improve and the summer selloff of oil put an exclamation point on all of the fun.
Real-estate agents are “cautiously optimistic” about this summer, even as some predictions suggest a lackluster market and lower bonuses may dim the shine of Hamptons home sales this year.
March 30, 2016
March 8, 2016
Wine on Wall Street
The sommelier opened and presented the bottle. He poured a few drops in front of Tom, the broker picking up the check. Tom sipped it and then closed his eyes. We all watched in anticipation. Tom opened his eyes ad nodded yes. It was a good bottle.
As I took my first sip, the guy to my left leaned in really close.
“You know,” he said. “Only 0.1 percent of the population will ever taste a wine this good.”
“Really,” I said taking my second sip.
“That’s Bordeaux — a $10,000 bottle.”
“What???”
I whipped around to look at Tom and, in the process, my elbow and forearm took out my glass, his glass and the entire bottle. The $10,000 was soaked up by the tablecloth in a matter of seconds.
“I’m so sorry,” I said. “I-ah, um. I’m sorry.”
“It’s okay,” Tom gritted through his teeth. “Seriously, don’t worry about it.”
March 4, 2016
Could Donald Trump have Alzheimer’s?
As someone who’s been affected by Alzheimer’s disease, I know how difficult it is on everyone involved. It’s challenging, takes patience and is demanding. It’s sad watching a loved one lose a sense of reality. The only thing caregivers can do is create the best environment possible and love them. I remember how terrifying it was when my mother got the call that her father had wondered off and was found walking aimlessly on a busy highway because he was lost.
But along the way there were early signs from my grandfather.
And I’m not saying Donald Trump has Alzheimer’s or some other form of dementia, but some of his behavior has been curious over the last year or so. It’s created two basic camps: What’s wrong with this guy and God I love him. And over the course of campaigning he’s demonstrated certain symptoms that closely resemble signs of Alzheimer’s disease.
Trump released a letter stating he will be the ‘healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency. And while other candidates have released letters from their doctors which attest to their mental state, Trump has not. He’ll turn 70 years old on Election Day 2016. Here’s a look at some of the basic symptoms and you can diagnose for yourself:
MEMORY LOSS – There’s plenty of examples, but you need not look any further than the David Duke comments. “So I don’t know. I don’t know—did he endorse me, or what’s going on?” Trump said in a recent CNN interview. “Because I know nothing about David Duke; I know nothing about white supremacists.” But he’s on the record of knowing Mr. Duke in a statement reported by The New York Times in 2000. And he also indicated days before at a press conference and said, “David Duke endorsed me? Okay, all right. I disavow, okay?”
POINTLESS REPITION OF WORDS – If you watch any of the debates or television interviews you’ll notice there’s a constant use of the same words. When asked about policies he has continually discussed poll numbers—repeating the same results over and over again.
SLEEPLESSNESS – Judging from his Twitter rants it appears that some nights he doesn’t sleep.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump
EASILY AGITATED – One of the symptoms is becoming easily upset. Donald has always portrayed a thick skin, but in recent debates he’s felt treated unfairly from Meghan Kelly. Or the other candidates pointing out inconsistencies in his comments are met with a barrage of insults.
BEHAVIOR – This may include all politicians, but common symptom for frontotemporal dementia (FTD) is a lack of self-awareness. They show behavior that is rigid, bizarre and socially inappropriate like or defending his penis size on CNN.
HERDITARY – Donald Trump’s father Fred Trump suffered from Alzheimer’s disease for six years. He became sick with pneumonia before his death in 1999. Those who have a parent with Alzheimer’s are more likely to develop the disease.
All he really has to do is take a MMSE/Folstein Test and release the results.
The bad news: I might be sued by Trump today.
The good news: He won’t remember it tomorrow.
February 26, 2016
Does Insider Trading still Exist? 1000%
“Insider trading used to be so easy,” a hedge-fund trader of 15 years said. “The days of getting a wink of an upgrade, a nod of an eminent takeover or a fast call to front-run sizable order flow are a thing of the past. These days you have to be much more sophisticated.”
I called around to some trader friends to find out how the landscape of insider trading has changed since I was on Wall Street. The overwhelming consensus was that a lot has changed.
One source told me that Steve Cohen’s Point72 is leading the way to ensure that the sell side doesn’t put them in jeopardy. They’ve instructed all research coverage to not call them until a report has been officially published. And other hedge funds are following suit. This never used to be the case. While I was at the Galleon Group, we’d inculcate the idea that if a research report had already been published, even 30 seconds ago, it was considered old news. We didn’t want that call.
February 23, 2016
Podcast with James Altucher
I’m such a fan of @jaltucher so it was a big honor to be on his podcast – http://www.jamesaltucher.com/2016/02/...
Where Wall Street takes their Mistress
Hey, Turney. I need a spot for tonight,” Paul said.
I knew the dude, but not well. He was a senior broker and I was a sales assistant. It was the late 90s and I was “The Guy.” There’s one in every office on Wall Street. He’s the person who can tell you where to go for any occasion. He can get you a table and bypass the hassle.
January 28, 2016
Is the market going to zero?
If you’re wondering if it’s safe to put some new money to work in the stock market, the first question you have to ask is: How much fear is already priced in?
I put that question to several hedge-fund managers, traders, sales traders, analysts and day traders I know.
The collective sentiment could be summed up in two words: cautiously optimistic.
This, personally, scares me. Most finance professionals seem to think there was some capitulation (a feeling of maximum pessimism where people can’t take it anymore and panic sell) last week, which usually signals the end of the pain trade. But I’m not sure we saw enough of it.
So, I asked: What are you afraid of?
“It’s all performance anxiety,” one hedge-fund manager said. “We’re not worried about another 2008.”
That thought echoed through each and every call I made within the industry.
January 21, 2016
Will the Markets get Trump’d
Trying to predict who will be the next president is a sport on Wall Street. Hedge funds and banks spend enormous amounts of money, time and resources on trying to get an edge on who will win. The 2016 president election will dramatically change the asset allocation and exposure of everyone’s portfolio.
A few elections ago, when I was working on Galleon Group’s trading desk, we spent all summer devising a game plan for each of the candidates: George W. Bush and Al Gore. We thought Bush would be great for health-care and defense stocks but Gore would be better for all other sectors. So we planned accordingly, even up to the recount in Florida.
In normal election years, it’s much easier to quantify which candidates will be good for the market versus the ones that will weigh heavily on it. Typically it’s like predicting the outcome of a bowling ball and a feather put on both sides of the scale — one will go up and the other down. But this is anything but a typical election year. There is … the Trump factor.
