Robert Carter's Blog: http://novelcarter.blogspot.co.uk/, page 5

BRAZIL - Costa Rica Sinks!

In the last few days that sinking feeling has been experienced by Costa Rica and three other national sides, but Carter's Improved Betting System just keeps scoring. We have managed yet another 100% success in predicting the outcomes of all four quarter finals. That's twelve matches on the trot now.
         The Survivors
                    F A  GD
     Netherlands   12 4   8     Germany       10 3   7     Brazil        10 4   6     Argentina      8 3   5
CIBS is still predicting an all South American final, but a note of caution has entered the proceedings. Brazil - the worst Brazil side for many a long year - are depressed and already making excuses for probably losing to Germany. They are not quite blaming their star player, Neymar for having developed a bad back. We in Britain know all about that one - bad backs and nebulous bouts of depression have been used as excuses by the work-shy here for decades in order to take advantage of our over-generous benefits system. In Brazil there is no benefits system, and all the sum total of their national wealth appears to be spent on teaching their footballers how to football.
In Neymar's case, nothing is certain since faith healers and witch doctors all over Brazil are beaming in healing rays in a desperate attempt to uncrack his fractured vertebra. It's doubtful, however, if quackery of any kind will permit him to participate in the fun and games about to be had with Germany.
The Germans are doing what they do best, after making cars and beer that is: they are saying nothing and getting on with preparations for victory.
But while Germany lines up a possible lame duck in its sights and Brazil goes into slightly premature mourning, those other South Americans, the Argentinians, are experiencing increased optimism.

The last word goes to the Argentine's next opponents, the wily Dutch. To get them through to this stage, their manager engineered a magnificent nil-nil triumph over Costa Rica after 120-odd minutes of play. When it came to the inevitable shoot-out, the Dutch coach brought on a huge goalkeeper whose particular skill is wafting away penalty strikes. Tim Krul, who plays for Newcastle United, but who can't seem to use his tennis racket-sized hands to save the 'Magpies' from weekly ignominy, proved to be an inspired secret weapon. Perhaps Argentina will bring on a couple of last-minute substitutes with giant feet, or scupper Dutch plans altogether by poking in a late winner sometime during the 89th minute.

"French Wine is Rather Good!"

But it wasn't all mud and blood being in the German army. One of the advantages of invading a country like France was the convenient habit the citizens had of preparing vast numbers of bottles of wine and then hiding them in holes in the ground to keep for later.

Unfortunately for the citizens of Northern France and Belgium in 1914, there would be no later. No sooner had the Germans occupied the place than they began serious enquiries as to where the jolly old wine bottles might be hidden. Naturally, they had a mighty thirst and a celebration to get under way.

The French were caught in two minds. Allowing the hated invader to quaff their nation's sacred vignobles struck them as heretical, not to say deeply offensive. On the other hand, it was easier to fight German soldiers who were star-fish drunk or who were suffering from the sort of hangover that only a cheap Artois Cabernet could inflict.

Brazil - Autopsy: The Last Eight

A thrilling match has seen the USA leave the tournament, but they have gone with heads held high. If only England could have shown half the unstinting determination and energy of the Americans they might have gained some respect. Tim Howard gets my Man of the Match award - a true superhero.



But there is some good news. Carter's Improved Betting System has scored! We have managed a 100% success record. You can't argue with the number cruncher! If we look at the eight teams that are left in the tournament, and rank them according to Goal Difference over all games played, we get the following:
                    F A  GD
     Colombia      11 2   9     Netherlands   12 4   8     France        10 2   8     Germany        9 3   7     Brazil         8 3   5     Argentina      7 3   4     Belgium        6 2   4     Costa Rica     5 2   3
This does not include shoot-out penalties, since these are not part of proper football. What we see is the rise of Colombia to top the table in place of the Netherlands. Dark horses, I think, but now they face the hosts.
Only three continents are represented now:
          Europe         4          South America  3          North America  1
The CIBS is continuing to tell me that the last eight will become a last four comprising: Germany, Netherlands, Argentina and Brazil.

Just one more on footie ... BRAZIL: CIBS is the Winner!

BRAZIL - CIBS is the Winner
You remember HAL 9000, right? The infallible computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey?
Well, I'd just like to say that Carter's Improved Betting System remains 100% correct after six of the eight Last 16 matches. It only remains for Argentina to sweep past the Swiss, and for Belgium to oust the U.S. The last match in the round is the most interesting, and I'm unselfishly hoping that the CIBS will emerge only 87.5% correct.

Fingers crossed for Jurgen and the lads.

But one more on footie ... Brazil World Cup Predictions

BRAZIL - WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS



BRAZIL - WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS
According to Carter's Improved Betting System – you see, unlike some of the footballers out there in Brazil, I do not let the grass grow under my feet - the last sixteen teams will become the last eight teams according to the following schedule:
       *           Brazil beats Chile                 Colombia beats Uruguay                   France beats Nigeria                  Germany beats Algeria       *      Netherlands beats Mexico       *       Costa Rica beats Greece                Argentina beats Switzerland                  Belgium beats USA
As I write this, three matches have been played and the System has been vindicated 100% (Successful predictions are marked with an asterisk (*). All three have been, like the battle of Waterloo, damned close-run things, with two of the games decided on arcade shoot-outs and the Dutch win down to tremendous perseverance and one of the latest bona fide penalty kicks ever awarded. If only England played in orange ...
Unfortunately, the System says that Belgium are going to eliminate the USA, which surely cannot be right. But there you have it. Just watch and laugh gleefully as the System now proceeds to crash and burn.
My computer (which is German-made) tells me that the last eight will become a last four comprising: Germany, Netherlands, Argentina and Brazil. The latter two will meet in the final, and Brazil will be the victors.
Ha! All I can say is, if it comes to that then it will be a matter of little consequence and only passing interest.
Just remember, I am absolutely not responsible for any gambling stakes you may choose to hazard using the System, but if you win a million or more I hope you remember me fondly.

The Germans Love their Children Too

A touching photo of German infantrymen about to head off to war. Noble Readers will have noticed the chicken head-dress theme extended here to include the female of the species, along with a rather more worrying trend to dress babies as sailors. Soldiers, however are invariably hatted and helmeted as soldiers. Even the soldier's back-pack has one. No wonder Germany won the"Best-Equipped Army of 1914" award.
Right! No more on chickens and millinery, I promise.

More Emperors, More Chickens

To show that the Germans had absolutely no monopoly in ridiculous apparel back in the day, I present for your delectation a photograph of King Edward VII at his mother’s funeral. (And yes, the air pollution in Victorian London was very bad in those days.)

As you can see, the king, who was also styled an emperor, having recently become head of state of the entire British Empire, is following the mode for emperors and wearing a head-dress liberally smothered in chicken feathers.
Actually, I can't say for certain that the feathers in question were plucked from that particular species of fowl, but let's assume so.
So, Wilhelm II with large bird on his head, and Edward VII with a mop of chicken feathers. Heaven knows what psycho-sexual implications this curious fashion holds, but it does remind me irresistibly of the joke that used to circulate at school: what's the difference between "kinky" and "perverted"?
Answer: kinky is when you use a feather, perverted is when you use the whole damned chicken.


The Deadly Playground, 1914 is out now.  Why not click on this link and get yourself a copy? http://smarturl.it/DPAmazon

Man with Chicken on Head Longs to be Taken Seriously

Noble Readers should be warned that men who dress like this are likely to be trouble. While other men might be content to sport simple spikes on their helmets, Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany – for it is he - decided he would benefit from a nine-inch tall gilded eagle.


Along with the epaulettes, sashes, cavalry boots, sabre and curiously enlarged tassel, Wilhelm looks quite the part. But what you don't see in the picture is the sad, fact that blighted Wilhelm's whole life and outlook - that magnificently uniformed left arm of his was deformed.
Nowadays, right minded folk would overlook such a bodily imperfection. We would reprove our children for remarking cruelly on physical differences among their school pals. But in Wilhelm's time - and, more importantly, in Wilhelm's mind - possession of a malformed arm was an unforgiveable weakness.
Imperial tailors were tasked with the mission of hiding the problem in plain sight. The Emperor's new clothes must act as camouflage, so that resurgent Germany could not be mocked through its leader. Wilhelm must be presented to the world as faultless, virile, strong!
Noble Readers, I have to tell you now, they went too far.


The Deadly Playground, 1914 is out now.  Why not click on this link and get yourself a copy? http://smarturl.it/DPAmazon

BRAZIL - THE PLAYER WHO ATE HIMSELF

What's to be done with Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz?


"Who he?" you may well ask - if you're a hermit, that is.
The answer is: nobody really, just a soccer player. He  happens to be very good at scoring goals, and so is presently retained by Liverpool Football Club as one of their most prestigious and best-paid representatives. The problem is, he likes to bite other players.
Yes, I did say "bite" - when things get on top of him periodically he sinks his fangs into whomsoever happens to be close to him at that moment. He's done this several times, most recently in a 2014 World Cup game aganst Italy, when he fastened onto the shoulder of defender, Giorgio Chiellini.
Frighteningly, Senor Luis is blessed with immense incisors, two gleaming tombstones, sharp-edged and capable of cutting through rhino skin. He employs them to devastating effect, mostly to cut short his otherwise promising career.
Of course, one can't help thinking that if he did this sort of thing in the local park he'd be locked up in chokey for it. That he did so on television, in front of millions of schoolchildren, has persuaded FIFA, the sport's cowardly, corrupt and increasingly ludicrous governing body, to allow him to keep his liberty. Good call, eh?
Having embarrassed Liverpool and Uruguay, Suárez is now likely to be offered the chance to embarrass noble Barcelona F.C. Certain commentators are suggesting that in that case the deadly weapons should either be filed-down, or he be obliged in future to wear a muzzle of some sort.
The last word on this unseemly charade must go to those other Merseysiders, the supporters of Everton Football Club, who are renowned for having a way with words. They habitually refer to Liverpool's nibbling dribbler as "the buck-toothed cannibal."

So it goes.

BRAZIL - OR TO PUT IT ANOTHER WAY

We are used to thinking of football in national terms, but what if we looked at continents instead?


The 32 teams at the Brazil World Cup represent countries from around the world, and qualifying games are organized to reflect that. This means that the nations currently vying away in Brazil are not actually the best 32 teams in the world. So which of the seven continents is best represented?
                   Continent       Teams
                   EUROPE           13                   SOUTH AMERICA     6                   AFRICA            5                   NORTH AMERICA     4                   ASIA              3                   AUSTRALASIA       1                   ANTARCTICA        0
Here, I've included Russia as European, since most of its football takes place west of the Urals. Also, in the New World, I've designated anywhere north of Panama as North American.
It's not surprising that Europe tops the list, after all football began in England, which is still nominally a part of Europe. South America is in second place, unsurprisingly since all of Latin America is football crazy.
So ... now that we're down to the last 16, how do these figures change?
              Continent        32  16
              EUROPE           13   6              SOUTH AMERICA     6   5              NORTH AMERICA     4   3              AFRICA            5   2              AUSTRALASIA       1   0              ASIA              3   0              ANTARCTICA        0   0
Or to put it another way, ranking the resilience of each continent by looking at what percentage of its teams have exited:
              Continent        32  16  %lost
              ANTARCTICA        0   0     0              SOUTH AMERICA     6   5    17              NORTH AMERICA     4   3    25              EUROPE           13   6    54              AFRICA            5   2    60              ASIA              3   0   100              AUSTRALASIA       1   0   100
So it's "G'day sport and Sayonara!" to Asia and Australasia, but a resounding, "Go Antarctica! You'll never walk alone!"

And now you know how statistics can be used to prove just about any point you care to, and not only in football. By the way, if there's a police authority or health department that would like me to "massage the message", my fee for statistical work remains a trivial £500 a day.