Robert Carter's Blog: http://novelcarter.blogspot.co.uk/, page 6

BRAZIL - ALL A MATTER OF DISTRIBUTION.

It has finally dawned upon me that Carter's Patented Betting System cannot possibly be right in predicting the four semi-finalists as Brazil, Colombia, France, and Germany. This is because. the way the organizers have arranged things, these teams are bound to play one another. Ouch!


If Brazil overcomes Chile and Colombia triumphs over much-reviled Uruguay, the victors will meet in the quarter finals. So too will France and Germany, if they succeed against the two remaining African sides, that is.
Again, it's all a matter of distribution. The way things are going, the amended CPBS indicates:
                   Netherlands                   Colombia                   France                   Belgium
Nonsense again, of course. Brazil have such a gigantic home advantage that they are clearly going to win the tournament, and the other semi-finalists are going to be Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands.

How do I know? I don't. That's just what my hunch says. Not in the Quasimodo sense, I hasten to add. Would I bet a pound on it? Well, maybe 50 pence. 

More Points than a Porcupine?

One wonders why they bother with a points system at all when "Goal Difference" alone would do the trick, and arguably do it better.

Goal difference is a derived statistic: the raw data shows "goals for" and "goals against", and this enables us to list the best (or perhaps luckiest) attacking sides, and likewise to list the most solid defences. For your convenience, let me present the data below:
      BEST 6 ATTACKS        BEST 7 DEFENCES      (goals scored)        (goals conceded)
      10 Netherlands        1 Belgium       9 Colombia           1 Costa Rica       8 France             1 Mexico       7 Switzerland        2 Brazil       7 Germany            2 Colombia       7 Brazil             2 France                            2 Germany
Let me just say this about "luck." Luck is like backround noise. It's random, and the only way statistics can deal with that kind of random is to assume it's evenly distributed and so, on that basis, justifiably ignorable. (Pathetically untrue, of course, but what else can we do?)
At any rate, assuming merit rather than luck, we see the Dutch attack topping the table, having just broken into double figures. I would advise caution here, since half those Dutch goals were scored against one out-of-sorts team -- Spain. No matter that Spain are (still, just about) the World Cup holders, for some inexplicable reason they played like rag dolls in that match. Go figure, as the American side of the family say.
No team managed to keep a so-called "clean sheet." Bizarre image, that, perhaps, if you're thinking beds -- in fact the metaphor refers to score-sheets. A clean sheet is said to be kept when no goal is conceded. So every team has shown it is vulnerable.
The three teams which let in but a single goal are rather unassuming sides not among the pre-tournament hot favourites. Dark horses, maybe?
The label "hot favourite" though, can be applied to at least two teams which let in two goals, i.e Brazil and Germany.
Most interesting, if it is interesting at all, is the fact that several teams appear in both lists. I in no way condone gambling, but Carter's Patented Betting System predicts from the results so far that the four teams that should appear in the semi-finals ought to be:
                   Brazil                   Colombia                   France                   Germany

Remember, folks, you heard it here first!

BRAZIL - IS THERE NO JUSTICE?

The short answer is "no."


One trouble with a points system is that it doesn't really reflect the essence of football, which is, in a Brazil nut-shell: "try to score more goals than you let in." So I've helpfully adjusted the table presented in the last blog to show rankings based on "goal difference." I have marked the teams staying in the tournament with an asterisk (*).
TEAMS ORDERED BY GOAL DIFFERENCE
                   F A diff.                  F A diff.
*   Netherlands   10 3   7     Ecuador        3 3   0*   Colombia       9 2   7     Croatia        6 6   0*   France         8 2   6     Bosnia Herz    4 4   0*   Germany        7 2   5     Russia         2 3  -1*   Brazil         7 2   5     Italy          2 3  -1*   Belgium        4 1   3     Ivory Coast    4 5  -1*   Argentina      6 3   3     England        2 4  -2*   Mexico         4 1   3   * Greece         2 4  -2*   Costa Rica     4 1   3     Iran           1 4  -3*   Chile          5 3   2     South Korea    3 6  -3*   Switzerland    7 6   1     Spain          4 7  -3*   Algeria        6 5   1     Portugal       4 7  -3    Ghana          4 6   1     Japan          2 6  -4*   Uruguay        4 4   0     Australia      3 9  -6*   USA            4 4   0     Honduras       1 8  -7*   Nigeria        3 3   0     Cameroon       1 9  -8
As you can see, there are two strange anomalies, one far stranger than the other. The Ghanaians fail to progress, despite managing a positive goal difference. Heartbreak, indeed, for them. But look at Greece! They did precisely what dismal England did, letting in four goals while scoring only two of their own -- @and yet they went through.
Oh, Referee! You cannot be serious!
It's all down to the win-draw-lose points system. Greece did one of each and so got four points out of it. England lost two and drew one -- so only one point, I'm afraid. It was goal @distribution the Greeks won at. Grrrr.

I just hope, when this tiresome farce is all over, that the Germans see fit to double Greek income tax. That'll teach 'em.

BRAZIL - THE AUTOPSY REPORTS

I apologise right up front for raising the business of sport. Many Noble Readers, I'm sure, find all that running and jumping and corruption a distinct turn-off, but some of us retain a strange fascination for the world of footballery to make it worth some comment.
So ... in the spirit of fun, and inclining somewhat away from sport per se and rather more towards statistics, here, spread mercifully over half a dozen ground-breakingly original blogs, are my two low-denomination coins on the subject of the 2014 World Cup. I have assumed no prior knowledge of the activity.
The initial stage of the tournament is now over. The 32 teams, have played three games each in 8 mini-leagues, and 16 of these teams are now eliminated. There have been tears, both of joy and sadness, and in one or two cases, relief.
Alas, my own dear England are one of the teams destined now to fly home in disgrace (they were truly appalling, but then we all knew they were going to be that before they hobbled off to take part.) Australia, too, despite the sort of mighty and heroic sporting efforts one associates with the Lucky Country, have also suffered  footballing ignominy. Well, you can't be tops at everything.
Can you tell I was brought up in Sydney? Really?
Well, so ... how did everyone else do? The table below shows the teams set out in order of points gained. The points system awards three for a win, one for a draw and none at all for losing:
            TEAMS ORDERED BY POINTS
       9  Netherlands       4  Portugal       9  Colombia          4  Ecuador       9  Belgium       9  Argentina         3  Spain                            3  Ivory Coast       7  France            3  Italy       7  Germany           3  Croatia       7  Brazil            3  Bosnia Herzegovina       7  Mexico       7  Costa Rica        2  Russia
       6  Chile             1  Japan       6  Switzerland       1  South Korea       6  Uruguay           1  Iran                            1  England       4  Greece            1  Ghana       4  Algeria       4  USA               0  Cameroon       4  Nigeria           0  Honduras                            0  Australia
Why have I split the table into two halves?
Easy. The teams on the left won one of the top two slots of each group (and therefore stay in the tournament,) while those on the right ended up in the bottom two slots in each group (and therefore must go home.) Note that Russia, who will host the next World Cup, got only two points (twice as many as England but only half as many as the USA) and so are out too. I blame their manager, Fabio Someone-or-other, who is no doubt being lined up to manage a salt mine in the Crimea even as I write this.
The teams of most interest here are those which gained four points, four of which, like the USA (Yay!)  are staying, but two others - Portugal and Ecuador, are not.
Why?
Well, because when there is a tie in the rankings, the team with the better goal difference gets precedence. In Group G, which was the United States' group, Portugal tied with USA on four points, but whereas the US scored four goals and let in four others and so ended up with a goal difference of zero, Portugal scored four, but let in seven. Ergo, it's hasta la vista Portugal and all systems go Uncle Sam.
Ecuador is the biggest heartbreaker though. Despite performing exactly as well as Nigeria, who go through, the Ecuadorians get their marching orders.
Is there no justice?

So What About This Serbia Anyway?

Interesting. Serbia is a country in the Balkan region of south-eastern Europe, a region that had been overrun by the Ottoman Turks during the Sixteenth Century and slowly relinquished in succeeding centuries. 
In the Nineteenth Century, Serbia emerged as a sovereign state. The Treaty of Berlin (1878), the one which gave Austria-Hungary its mandate to administer Bosnia, also proposed an independent principality of Serbia. This land-locked country with its capital at Belgrade would then become a kingdom in 1882, ruled by Milan I.

King Milan enjoyed close relations with Austria-Hungary and was happy to acknowledge the borders defined by the treaty. Milan abdicated suddenly in 1889, but he would not die until 1901. His young son, Alexander, became king. He was under his mother's regentship, until the age of sixteen, at which point he wrestled himself free, having decided he was old enough to take control.  

Now, it is never a good idea for a country to have a head of state who is sixteen years of age. Most sixteen year-olds think they know everything, when the truth is they don't usually know enough. In the case of sixteen year-old kings, this creates a situation in which a circle of power-hungry "advisors" cluster around the child and battle it out for influence and power.In 1894, Alexander abolished the constitution. Soon afterwards, he dragged his father out of private life and installed him as Commander-in-Chief of Serbia's army. Then, in 1900, he decided he was going to marry, Draga, one of his mother's ladies-in-waiting, a woman twelve years his senior -- a very unpopular move.  Alexander's mother was not particularly amused either, so he banished her. More dismay was generated by Alexander, who made it clear that he was prepared to name his wife's brother as heir presumptive.
Unfortunately for the royal couple, an army coup in May 1903 led by one Dragutin Dimitrijevic, succeeded.
The head of the palace guard was forced to show the revolutionaries a large mirror behind which there existed a secret chamber. With the kind of overkill indicative of extreme disapproval, the assailants shot Alexander some thirty times. Draga, presumably out of some chivalric impulse, was shot only a mere eighteen times. The bodies were then mutilated with swords, disemboweled and defenestrated onto a convenient dung heap.
Having got rid of the previous lot, Dimitrijevic installed a new outfit. Henceforth, King Peter I would rule. His rule would be pro-Russian and anti-Austrian, and Serbia would become a right royal regional troublemaker.

I suppose, Noble Readers, that in light of previous blogs, you can probably see where all this was heading.

The Deadly Playground, 1914 is out now.  Why not click on this link and get yourself a copy? http://smarturl.it/DPAmazon

Reprisals against Serbs for Franz Ferdinand's Life

This street scene shows the disorder in Sarajevo following the killing of Austria's heir apparent.  Serb-owned businesses were attacked, blameless people assaulted, wrongs not quite righted.

But while Bosnian Serbs were being hounded in Sarajevo, other attempts were being made in high places to gain satisfaction. Austria-Hungary gave Serbia 48 hours to comply with a demand to, among other things, cease all inflammatory anti-Austrian rhetoric, to halt secret gun-running, to sack the most hawkish members of its military and to arrest those responsible for the assassination.
In reply, the Serbs (who had been lumbered with a very anti-Austrian government in the coup of 1903) dissembled in a way calculated to infuriate the Austrians. They waved a telegram of support from the Russia czar, and immediately mobilized their army.  Austria-Hungary's own mobilization followed soon after and they declared war on Serbia.
A secret treaty signed more than twenty years before provided that France and Russia would mobilize if any member of the Triple Alliance (i.e. Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy) did so.
So France and Russia mobilized. Russia's mobilization set off full Austro-Hungarian and German mobilizations.  Soon all the Great Powers were at one another's throats. All except Italy, which was still trying to decide which side to go with.

The Deadly Playground, 1914 is out now.  Why not click on this link and get yourself a copy? http://smarturl.it/DPAmazon

Another Day, Another Photograph ...

Last week they were lying in bed together. Now Franz Ferdinand and his wife are lying in state.  Candles burn,  haloed in light. The figure of Christ crucified seems to offer a blessing. He needs to: history is now set on a track that will send millions to their graves.


In Vienna, the aged emperor, Franz Josef, is consulting advisors about how to avenge the death of his son. Five hundred miles down the Danube, in Serbia, they are preparing for the inevitable backlash. The Serbs are not as worried as they might be - they have Russia as a guarantor: if Austria mounts a punitive expedition against Serbia, Russia will come to their aid.
Franz Josef's advisors have an answer to this upping of the ante. If Serbia has a big brother, then so does Austria. A letter must be sent to Germany.

All that remains is ... a little hole in a road?

Let's freeze time again: a Sarajevo policeman has placed a board over a little hole in the road, and his foot is firmly placed on the board. The message to onlookers milling around nearby is, "Move along, now. There's nothing to see."
But there is something to see.
That hole has been made minutes before by a bomb thrown at Archduke Franz Ferdinand's car by a man with a cause. The bomb-thrower has links to a terrorist group called the "Black Hand." The organization is opposed to the inclusion of certain south Slavic provinces in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. It wants Bosnia-Herzegovina to become part of a greater Slavic state. It wants "freedom" for Bosnian Serbs! Arcane stuff.
Perhaps, but this sort of consideration is usually enough to inflame the passions of foolish young idealists who are convinced that the "oppression" of some group or other must end now. Others in the group are, of course, simply misfits with violent urges who are looking to commit barbarous acts under a cloak of political respectability. All are street-level members prepared, for whatever reason, to do the bidding of their leaders. There are half a dozen members of the Black Hand in Sarajevo. Enough to cause a war? Well, maybe. Noble Readers will observe how a hundred years passes and nothing changes except the labels? Well, there it is ...
As for the Austrian archduke and his wife, they are on an official visit. Figureheads must be seen to be figureheads. And so the show must go on. 
The bomb is not very powerful. And it is poorly aimed.  No one in the archduke's car is killed, or even injured, and the official visit does go on. Flustered by the attempt on the archduke's life, his advisors alter the route, but the driver becomes confused and misses his junction. He tries to turn the car around, and that provides a second killing opportunity.

This time the would-be killer has in his pocket a Belgian-made FN Model 1910 automatic pistol, designed by the American gunsmith, John Browning. The magazine holds six rounds. Only two of them will be necessary to spark the deadliest war to date.

Ferdinand and Sophie

As we have already seen, discussion of the accuracy of newspaper reports is nothing new. Wise readers know that editors, then and now, seek to shape news reports in a way that is palatable to both their readership and their proprietor. In so doing, they are apt therefore to deviate somewhat from the strict truth.
But surely the camera cannot lie - can it?
Misplaced trust, I'm afraid. Cameras do nothing but lie. Yet still, a photograph freezes a moment in time, and thus some photographs are able to become remarkably poignant in the light of subsequent events. In that poignancy lies their power.
This photograph shows the Archduke Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, at Sarajevo railway station. Had things turned out differently, this picture may well have ended up gracing the society pages of Vienna's most widely-circulated newspaper along with the caption - "Imperial Heir Visits Troubled Province."
But nobody could have known when the shutter was pressed that the imperial heir and his wife would both have bled to death within the hour.

Artists' Impressions?

Noble Readers who troubled to read my last blog will have seen the way artists were early drawn into the Great War. I find period posters curiously fascinating, but they are not the only way in which the artists of 1914 were engaged.
In Edwardian times, when photography was a much more involved art than it is today, equipment was often so bulky as to preclude all but the staged portrait. And if the still picture was hard to obtain, how much more difficult was the movie clip? This being the case, newspaper editors often commissioned graphic artists to depict current affairs.

When the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife were assassinated in Sarajevo, one artist took the opportunity not only to depict but also to dramatize the event in what appears at this remove to be ludicrous way. Realism was not, it seems, the artist’s strong suit.