Bryce Moore's Blog, page 260

Coming to a Cover: Vodnik Chapter Twenty-Nine

Aha! Here we have the chapter where the scene from the cover occurs at last. Interestingly enough, this was one of the last scenes I added to the book--if not the last. I added the specific Bigot Gang scenes when I wanted to make the racism conflict more real and immediate to Tomas, as opposed to the general feeling of resentment that the conflict was in the first few passes. And since I added them in chronologically, the scene where he finally whups 'em came last. (Even then, I didn't have this scene right away. Believe it or not, originally there was no "finally whups 'em" scene. Because when you get right down to it, even now, he hasn't beaten them for good. If I ever get to write a sequel, you know that the Bigot Gang is still there--and sporting burns of their own now. I've got to be thinking they're planning some revenge, and they're on to the fact that Tomas is capable of some pretty fishy stuff now. I'd really like to show what they do with those suspicions and that heightened level of resentment . . . )



So anyway. Work on the cover began while the book was still getting edited. The designer, Isaac Stewart, actually did an excellent write up of the process over on Tu's site. Allow me to link to it for your reading pleasure--here and here.



I'm pretty sure I've said it elsewhere, but I'll say it again here: I'm really happy with the way the cover turned out. I think it's pretty interesting that some reviews of the book have praised the cover, and others have really disliked it. Just shows what a difference of taste can do for a review, and how subjective a lot of reviews are in general. (My take on reviews is simple: find a reviewer whose tastes mirror your own as closely as possible. Then listen to him or her. Ignore the others. Rottentomatoes and Metacritic and the like are all fine and good, but what's the use in knowing 95% of reviewers hated a movie if you turn out to love it? I feel like those review aggregators give a false sense of "Being Right." They give their rubber stamp of approval or disapproval, and that can really kill a film. Sometimes I ignore reviews on purpose. That's in film, but I think the same principle carries over to books, as well.)



I was allowed to participate quite a bit in the cover design process, something which not many authors get to do. A lot of the time, you're just told what your cover will look like. You can object and really put up a stink if you loathe it, but even then, it's no guarantee that they'll change it. It helped that I know Isaac very well and trust his judgement impeccably. :-) I think the final result is eye-catching, representative of the book, and looks cool to boot. I hope you do, too.

Movie Review: Brave

Chalk this one up on the "Movies I Probably Don't Need to Review for You, But Am Going to Review Anyway" list. For one thing, you've probably already seen it, and for another, it's Pixar, which almost always means a great movie. Then again, I've been beginning to see people take Pixar for granted, almost passing off each fantastic movie as a "meh," because that's what we've come to expect from Pixar.



Case in point? I waited to watch Brave until it was out on Bluray. It wasn't because I didn't want to see it, but I just . . . never got around to it. And so here we are.



The movie was fantastic for a number of reasons.




It's a film featuring a female lead, where her goal isn't to marry Prince Charming. She wants to be independent, and she follows through on that desire.
It's not predictable. Halfway through, I was loving the movie, but there were a few hints that maybe they were veering off into "You Can See This Coming" territory, as Disney movies have been wont to do over the years. Thankfully, they veered off and avoided the cliche.
The Scottish imagery and themes throughout the movie work very well. That said, I don't know much about Scottish imagery and themes. So . . . it felt Scottish to me, but for all I know, it was playing to stereotypes.
It was genuinely funny. So often, I hear the argument that boys won't watch girls movies. TRC and DC both loved the movie. TRC didn't care it was a girl doing the awesome things, just like DC doesn't care when it's a boy doing the awesome things. It helped, of course, that there was a lot of funny stuff in the whole thing. Who doesn't love funny?
Great mother/daughter storyline. Sort of Lion King-esque. But again, that's me interpreting there. I have no idea how that plays to actual mothers and daughters.
Visually stunning--Pixar manages to keep outdoing itself, time after time.
Great soundtrack. Patrick Doyle did a wonderful job.


Flat out great movie. Am I hyping it too much if I give it 4 stars? That's the funny thing, if this were a non-Pixar movie, I think I'd give it four stars easily. But it's Pixar . . . Is it as fantastic as Up? Wall-E? Toy Story? I'd have to say that yeah, it is.




What did you think about it?

Book Review: Gone Girl

Gone Girl by Gillian Flynn

My rating: 4 of 5 stars



Hmm . . . This was a tough one. I finished it in all of two days, which is a testament to how well the book was plotted. It's the story of a husband and a wife and a marriage gone horribly wrong. (Sounds just peachy, don't it?) That's not normally up my alley . . . but it's a murder mystery, which more than redeems it. I'm all for murder mysteries, especially about horribly gone wrong marriages. And because of that whole "mystery" thing, I don't have to go into details about the plot, either. Yay! So all you need to know: Husband. Wife. Horribly gone wrong.



With me so far?



If I finished the book in two days, why in the world am I only giving it four stars? I mean, here's a book that *demanded* being finished. I gave up a Saturday of my life to this book, and I only have a limited number of Saturdays, ya know. (What a depressing thought.)



The book was very well done, but in the end, it felt . . . gimmicky to me. It felt like one big magician's show, and for a magician's show to get five stars, the reveal had better be jaw-droppingly awesome. In Gone Girl, the reveal starts out awesome, and then it gets derailed by this thing called "reality."



You see, because the book is so heavily based in the present--in modern society--in reality, I have certain expectations about what can or can't happen in the book. And let me be clear: I don't think the ending of this book can happen. I won't spoil it for you or anything, but go read it, then come back here and talk to me about it.



It's a fast read. And I doubt I'll forget the book. (It's also fairly adult, so be prepared for some naughty words here and there in the novel.) But I'd really love to talk about this one, so I'll reserve further discussion for the comments thread, giving it a big ol' SPOILER WARNING. Don't read 'em if you haven't read the book. Got it?



Good.



Now please talk. :-)




View all my reviews

Why I Enjoy High School Football

I've been going to as many of the local high school football games as I can this year, and a lot of people seem to wonder why in the world I do that when they hear about it. When I tell them I was at the game, they stare at me like I've grown some sort of second head. Do I know anyone playing? As if that would explain it--I'm going because I have to go, out of some sick sense of duty and obligation. Kind of like how the samurai in a Kurosawa film are compelled to follow their idiot leaders, even when it's clear those leaders are complete despots. (I know a few of the players, and but that's not really the reason I go.) Or maybe I played football myself in high school, and I'm going to relive the glory days, like an Uncle Rico who just can't turn away. (I played at football games, not in them: tenor and bari sax in the marching band, thank you very much. (And our high school has no marching bad, alas. Though I do wonder if I could convince them to at least have a pep band of some sort . . . ))



So why do I go? For a bunch of reasons.




Fall means football. Something about the smell of rotting leaves and the chill in the air demand that football be consumed, in person if at all possible.
I love watching football. It's a sport I really enjoy--seeing the strategy play out on the field. I'm a big fan of games, though typically just of the board game persuasion. But that doesn't mean I don't enjoy seeing strategy at work in other situations. I can't play football very well, but I can second guess coaching decisions with the best of them.
High school football is college football in embryo. College football is my favorite. I'm not a huge fan of the NFL. It's all too slick and polished. I like my football messy. At the college level, you've got a nice balance between players who know what they're doing (more or less) but aren't yet all superstars. High school is to college as college is to the NFL. It's a bit messier than I'd typically like, but beggars can't be choosers. (And I've seen some kicking games that are better than BYU's this year--not that that would be really hard.)
Football is a social thing for me, too--I like being able to sit and watch games with friends. If the games are close, so much the better. But if they're blow outs, it's still fun to me to be able to sit and talk. I'm a talker--what can I say?
Football means food--Not the best for my diet, but such is life. I also don't get to eat food at every football game I go to, but that's okay, too. A good tail gating party is just a lot of fun.
It's very different from my normal routine. No books, no writing, no researching--not even movies. And it gets me out of the house, if I'm actually going to a game. Believe it or not, I like being outdoors.


Bring all these things together, and you've got a recipe for a happy Bryce. And when your high school happens to have a very good team--which we do this year--it's even better. Mt. Blue is undefeated, and we're heading to States on Saturday. (We haven't won States since 1980. Excitement!)




So I wanted to take a minute to congratulate the team on a great season, and to wish them the best of luck Saturday. I'll be making the trek down to watch. Go Cougars! (PS--it also helps that the high school team has the right mascot. Now if only our colors were blue and white instead of blue and yellow . . . )

Bryce-azon Returns! For All Your Shopping Wants

[image error] Halloween is over, folks. And that means Thanksgiving is about to get mowed over by the holiday juggernaut that is The Holidays. It also means that you're going to have to be buying presents for just about everyone you've ever met in your entire life.



That's where Bryce-azon steps in, as faithful readers will remember.



First off, let me just say that if you're going to shop for Christmas presents (or any other sort of present), consider avoiding chain stores and buy something from a local artisan or local store. Keep your money in your community, instead of shipping it off to some suit in an office somewhere.



But I know you. You're like my students--the ones I always tell to "Start your research early." They never do, and you're probably not going to shop local, no matter what I say.



Well then . . .



If you must shop Amazon, at least do it the right way. Give me some of the proceeds! :-) Amazon has this thing where if you shill for them, they give you 4-6% of what they make off the people you sent their way. For you, this is easy. Anytime you want to buy something from Amazon, come here to my blog and click the Bryce-azon picture up above there. (Beautiful, isn't it?) Then, shop as normal. Search for whatever you want. Put it in your cart. Pay for it, and rest easy, knowing that you essentially gave me a Christmas present at the same time you were getting Christmas presents for someone else. (Note: I also accept Hanukkah presents, Festivus presents, birthday presents, get well soon gifts, graduation presents--I am no respecter of presents. I take 'em all!)



And if you're hard up on ideas for presents, allow me to make a small suggestion:






Note: This will not be the last time I remind you to BUY MY BOOK this holiday season. Because it's the gift that keeps on giving, people. Nothing says "I love you" like a book with a kid with his arm on fire. Trust me. Your wife/husband/son/daughter/grandchild/secretary/teacher/niece/dentist/_______ will love it.



Anyway--happy shopping, peoples! Tis the season to be greedy. :-) After all, we ain't gonna get out of this recession by *saving* our money.

Working with Suspension of Disbelief: Vodnik Chapter Twenty-Eight

I spent a lot of time in this book trying to make it as realistic as possible. That might sound like a strange way to talk about a book where vodniks and vilas exist, but what I mean is that I did a fair bit of research to make sure everything that *could* be realistic, was. For example, I wanted to describe the hospital correctly. The geography of Trencin had to be true to life. In this chapter, Tomas's father researches how to find a grave in Slovakia. The results he gets are actually the results you would get.



While I do think a lot of this attention to detail paid off in the long run by making the book as a whole feel more tangible, I wonder now and then if being too concerned with this can be a bad thing. Allow me to explain.



I'm a big Mythbusters fan. I enjoy watching the show, and some of my favorite episodes are the ones where they put movie scenes to the test. Could Hellboy really punch a car to stop it? Can you stealthily climb through air-conditioning vents to break into a room? That kind of thing. And it should come as no huge surprise that most of the time, Hollywood gets it wrong. And yes, part of me is disappointed by this trend, but a larger part of me just doesn't care.



So you can't stealthily crawl through vents. So what? When I watched Mission: Impossible, and they do that--and I knew they *couldn't* do that--did it spoil the movie for me? Nope. Still enjoyed it. Still kept watching. Still had a good time.



Willing suspension of disbelief is a powerful thing. As long as you stay within the bounds of the non-ridiculous, audiences are ready and able to buy a whole lot of things that wouldn't necessarily really happen. That's something I have a hard time remembering. So when Hellboy punches that car and it flips over his head and comes to a smashing stop, I don't watch it and say, "Yeah right." I watch it and say "Cool." I've already bought into the fact that it's possible there's a huge demon wandering the streets of the city. Am I really going to freak out because the laws of physics aren't followed to a tee?



Yes and no, I think.



On the one hand, if something happens that clearly violates the laws of physics, then I'm going to have serious issues. If somebody magically jumps 100 feet in the air--and there isn't an in-world explanation for how that happened--then that's trouble.



But if it's explained, then we're good to go. Sneaking around AC vents makes sense. They're a Way In, and since I don't have a lot of experience with them, I buy that they theoretically could be used in that manner. Knowing that they can't (via Mythbusters) doesn't automatically invalidate the approach. Because--hey, what do I know? Maybe the Mythbusters suck at AC vent crawling. Maybe it's a skill you can perfect with practice. Maybe there's a whole level of zen thing with AC vent crawling. Who knows?



A big trick to writing well is knowing what you can get away with and what you can't. In linguistics, this is referred to as "play." Think of it like the amount of give a steering wheel has. You can jiggle it back and forth a bit without causing the car to veer off course. That's the play. Suspension of disbelief has some play to it, too. Work within those confines, and you're golden. Step outside them . . . and you're in trouble.



Looking back on it, maybe I didn't need to be so so focused on everything being just perfect in Vodnik. What are the odds of anyone realizing that the time table is off on the trip into town or down to Bratislava? Slim to none. And would it be book-breaking if they did notice? Probably not. Then again, I still managed to pull it all off and keep it (more or less) reality-based, so what was the harm?



This is something I'm still learning as I go along. Test readers are vital to figuring this out. You might think as an author that you pulled off some epic feat of plot gymnastics, only to have your readers pull the emergency brake on you and call foul. What works in my head might not work on paper. Trial and error--all that fun stuff.



Anyway. That's what this chapter reminded me of this week. Thanks for reading!

Media Review Roundup: Phantom of the Opera, Blackbeard's Ghost, Amadeus, Matilda, The Big Year, Headhunters, Once Upon a Time, and the Original Knight Rider Pilot

Eight--count 'em, EIGHT--reviews for you today. I'm kind of behind the times, and I'm in between television series, more or less--which means more time for movies! A few highly recommended titles on this list. So let's get right to it:



Phantom of the Opera--we're talking the 25th anniversary concert here, not the film adaptation. I enjoyed it, but not nearly as much as the Les Mis version like this, and certainly not as much as the filmed stage productions of musicals like Into the Woods or Sweeney Todd. This one . . . I liked mainly for nostalgia. I'm going to say it, and I'm sticking by it--it's not that good of a musical. The music is nice enough, but the plot? The plot is a festering pile of dog's vomit. I know a lot of it makes more sense if you know the backstory behind the Phantom and everything, but you shouldn't have to bring outside knowledge in with you to make something make sense. The characters are all over the place, the plot takes inexplicable turns. Very underwhelmed by that. 3 stars for nostalgia. 2 stars if I'm being honest. (Okay. Maybe 2.5)



Blackbeard's Ghost--This one was a walk down memory lane. Many times I watch a movie I watched as a kid, only to be severely disappointed in it. Not this time. I'd say this time, I enjoyed the film even more than I did when I was little. This is classic Disney, about a guy who finds himself haunted by the title character. And the guy happens to be the new track coach at a small university with a crummy track program. Hilarity ensues. What made this even better for me was that this time, Blackbeard's Ghost wasn't just some funny portly fellow. It was Peter Ustinov! He really hams it up, and I loved it. No, the movie won't win any major awards, but it's a great classic Disney live-action, and is exactly what it should be. Three stars. (Directed by Robert Stevenson, who also did such greats as Bedknobs and Broomsticks, Mary Poppins, That Darn Cat!, The Love Bug, The Absent Minded Professor, and Darby O'Gill. Those were the good old days . . .)



Amadeus--Winner of best picture and 7 other Oscars, and yet I'd never gotten around to watching it, mainly because it's around three hours, and that's an awful lot of movie. But this movie is spectacular. Very well acted throughout, beautifully filmed and directed. The music is fantastic, the scene design equally so. Really, there's nothing not to like about this film. Period piece drama at its finest--just don't expect it to be too slavish to what actually happened to Mozart. Four stars. (Warning--the actual film is PG. The streaming version on Netflix is the Director's Cut, which is R for a single scene you can see coming a mile away. Easily skipped if you'd like to self-edit.)



Matilda--I'd actually compare this one to Blackbeard's Ghost. It's a modern take on that genre, directed by Danny DeVito. Denisa and I watched it with the kids, who adored it. Based on the Roald Dahl book--what's not to adore? It's like the kids' version of Carrie. :-) I'd seen it before, but wanted to share it with my kids now, and it went just like I thought it would. Really fun. Three stars.



The Big Year--This movie was really poorly marketed. To believe all the commercials, you'd be seeing a slapstick comedy starring Steve Martin, Jack Black, and Owen Wilson. Slapstick this ain't. It's more along the lines of A League of Their Own. Heartwarming Comedy, if that's a genre. The three stars all play birding enthusiasts in a competition to see the most number of different species of bird in one year. Not sure I can totally give an objective review of it, since I went in expecting slapstick, and it took me a bit to figure out what sort of film I was watching. Still, it was fun enough. Predictable, but entertaining. Two and a half or three stars. Not on streaming.



Headhunters--A Norwegian film about a guy who's an employment specialist by day (connects people with jobs) and an art thief by night. And everything's going great until he steals a painting from the wrong guy. Meaning, an ex-military guy who's extremely violent. Pretty brutal movie. Well-done, but quite disturbing. Very violent, but has quite a good plot (and one of the most dreadful hiding places in the film that I've ever had the misfortune of seeing.) Not for the faint of heart, but I'd give it 3 stars, probably.



Once Upon a Time--Denisa and I are actually current with this show, watching each new episode as they come out online the day after. I'd have to say it's really finding its legs, as far as I'm concerned. Yes, the characterization still leaves me sighing now and then, but it's turning into a Disney fairytale version of Lost, and for that . . . it does a good job. We definitely both give it a thumbs up. Check it out, if you haven't already.



Original Knight Rider Pilot--Just for fun, we watched the original Knight Rider pilot--the one with David Hasselhoff. I adored this show when I was a kid. A talking sports car that could do awesome tricks? What's not to like? And the show is very high on the cheese-factor, it turns out. Watching the Hoff do his thing . . . very funny. Don't think I'll stick with the whole series, though. :-) TRC might like to start watching them, and if he does, then I might watch along with him now and then.

Free Wine? At a Bryce Event? Believe It or Not!

You. Yes you! Want to come out to what might be the only time wine is served at one of my book events? That's right, people. Free wine! You can have mine. I won't be drinking it--I'll be the one eating all the free cheese and oh-so-alluring "refreshments." (What could they be? Meatballs? Crackers? Beanie Weenies? The suspense is killing me!)



But in any case, next week, my university is throwing a shindig for all the peoples who published books at the university the past year. They're inviting the "UMF Community and Friends." That means you. If you're reading this, you're invited.



The basics? Tuesday November 13th from 4:00-6:00pm at the Emery Community Arts Center. Come on out, say hello, and meet a slew of cool university-type peoples. Hope to see you there!



Here's the exact announcement:






UMF’s Book Authors for 2011 and 2012



Drew Barton et al., The Changing Nature of the Maine Woods (University Press of New England, 2012)
Kristen Case, American Pragmatism and Poetic Practice (Camden House, 2011)
Libby G. Cohen and Loraine Spenciner, Assessment of Children and Youth with Special Needs (4th edition, Pearson, 2011)

Elizabeth Cooke and Jon Oplinger, The Wicked Small People of Whiskey Bridge (iUniverse 2011)
Amy Fried and Jim Melcher, Tea Party Talk -- the Governors (CreateSpace, 2012)

Bryce Moore, Vodnik (Tu, 2012)
Patricia O'Donnell, Necessary Places (Cadent, 2012)
Jennifer Reid, Religion, Writing, and Colonial Resistance (Davies Group, 2011)
Patricia H. Williams, ed.,  Annual Editions: The Family,  (39th edition, McGrawHill/Dushkin, 2012)

Luann Yetter, Portland's Past: Stories from the City by the Sea (History Press, 2011)

Shana Youngdahl, History, Advice & Other Half-Truths (Stephen F. Austin University Press, 2012) 

Tuesday, November 13, 2012, 4:00-6:00 p.m.

Emery Community Arts Center

Program to begin at 4:30 p.m.

Wine, cheese, refreshments
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Dear Republicans and Democrats

You see that picture right there? That's Milo and Otis. A cat and a dog. Best friends, even though the world tells them they should be enemies. Let's for a moment replace "cat" and "dog" with "Republican" and "Democrat." (I don't much care which is which. Democrats can be cats or dogs. Same with Republicans. No fighting!) Got it? Now, watch the preview for Milo and Otis, and replace those words. Got it? Here it is:







Here's the thing. We're all on this adventure together. We can fight and bicker and argue and eventually get eaten by a bear, or we can get along, have our disagreements and differences, but still get where we're going in one piece.



The election has come and gone. (And it more or less like I expected it to. Closer than both sides were thinking, but not close enough to give us all weeks of recounts. Thank goodness!) This is the part where we all move on.



In lots of ways, we should all look to board gaming as a way to handle what comes next. You play a really close game, and you get really invested in winning. Tempers are lost. Dice are thrown. But in the end, somebody wins, and somebody loses. Looking at my Twitter and Facebook feed, you'd figure a whole lot of people in this nation have never actually been taught how to win or lose gracefully. For the help of you who haven't learned this, let me give a few pointers:




Don't gloat if you're the winner. Don't call the other side names. You won. There's no need to rub it in. The other side is well aware of the fact that they lost, and one day, they'll be on the winning side again. There's a good chance they'll want to treat you the way you're treating them right now. Remember that.
Don't sulk if you're the loser. It's okay to feel bad, and you don't have to feel good for the guy who won, but sitting there pouting isn't going to get anything done.
Don't blame the rules. The rules are established ahead of time, back before the game starts. They're there so we all know exactly how this will be played. Both sides know them (or should, at least). Live with the results.
Don't threaten to take your game and leave and never come back. One, because the other side would probably love that. Two, because that's just silly and petty.
Finally, don't--DON'T--decide to be That Guy. You know the one I'm talking about. The one who loses, and so decides he's going to screw over everyone else playing the game as best he can. He doesn't care if the entire game gets ruined. He will have his revenge! Because that guy? He's kind of a tool, and nobody likes him. So don't do that.


The country is not going down in burning flames because Obama was reelected. It's also not going to suddenly start erupting in rainbows and cupcakes, either. It's going to be like it's been. Divided. To get anything done, people are going to have to start compromising. You got that? Compromise!




Guess what? Democrats aren't a bunch of socialist, weed-smoking, gay, baby-killers. And Republicans aren't a bunch of misogynistic, racist, rich, god-fearing nut jobs. I'm deeply troubled by the rhetoric that gets lobbed both ways in this idiotic sibling rivalry. The more we all listen to it and believe it, the more divided we become. The more divided we become, the less gets done. The less gets done, the more trouble we're in as a whole.




Milo and Otis, people. Milo and Otis! America's a great country. This can be a grand adventure. Start enjoying the ride and working together.




And that's hopefully the last political post I have to write for quite some time.
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Who I'm Voting For, Why, and What to Watch for Tonight

And here we are. After campaigns that went on for what has felt like forever, the day to vote has finally arrived. And I've made up my mind at last--which I'm sure is what you've all been waiting for so that you know who you're supposed to vote for, too. I don't agree with either candidate across the board--or even mostly across the board. I feel like both have good parts to their platform, and I don't think the country is going to Hell--regardless of who wins. People who vote for Romney aren't stupid or ignorant, and people who vote for Obama aren't, either. (Please, folks. Tone down your rhetoric. Just because someone votes for someone other than you doesn't disqualify them as a rational being. And neither candidate is the anti-Christ. You can quote me on that.)



So who am I voting for? In the end, the biggest decider for me was . . . myself. (Vain, I know.) I went back and looked at my blog post four years ago. For those of you who don't want to click through, here's the relevant quotes:

In the end, I ended up voting for Obama. I'll admit that even up to the point in time when I was about to mark my choice, I still wasn't convinced. The man's a little too bright and sunshiny when it comes to the promises he's making to America, and I really wonder what he'll actually be able to get done in office. 

And then there's this one:

The more the country can start taking interest in and caring about the political process, the better. I don't care who wins--so long as in four years, the country's in a better place than it is today. I think Obama gives us the best chance of getting there, but as long as that's where we end up, hooray.

Yeah. Well. Hmm. That hasn't happened. The country's definitely taken interest in this election. But I don't think we're in a better place than we were four years ago. The best argument someone could make to me is that we've finally made it back to the same place where we were four years ago.



I voted for Obama because I believed him. I thought he'd cut through party lines. I thought he'd help the county recover. I thought he'd bring change.



I don't feel like he has. Yes, you can argue that it wasn't all his fault. That the Republicans are equally to blame. But in the end, he's the guy with the big boy pants on.



I won't be voting for him today. I'm going with Mitt. It's not strictly an anti-Obama vote, as I said before. But in a tie, I go with Somebody Different.



Now that that's out in the air, let me talk about how I think today will play out. You've got yourself 3 scenarios that I see all more or less possible. On the one hand, the polls have all seemed to be breaking Obama's way in the past few days. We could see him getting wins in places Romney had been looking semi-bright: Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio(!), Iowa, etc. Then again, many Republicans claim that the polls have been skewed in Obama's favor. If that's the case, we might see Romney winning those states, and even other states like Pennsylvania (long shot). Or it'll be a mix of the two, and it'll be a long--very long--evening, which many many states being too close to call until late at night. (Please lete there be no-day-after-election-day lawsuits. Please!)



So how to tell what's happening as it's happening? I'm no political expert, but this is what I'll be looking for:




Virginia polls close at 7pm. If you see Obama with a W here, Romney is in trouble with a capital T. Not necessarily because there's no other path to a win for him, but because I'd look at it as a sign of the election in general. The more we see Romney underperforming, the less good it looks for him. Now if we see a W for Romney instead, it depends on how soon that W is posted. The sooner it's up, the better it looks for Romney. This promises to be a close state. Very close. I don't think we'll see it called until late in the evening. Obama is up in final polling in the state by 1.3. Deviations from that one way or another will be a good measuring stick for each candidate.
At 7:30, North Carolina and Ohio polls close. I don't think anyone needs me to remind them how important Ohio is to the election. Obama's up by 3 points in final polling. Romney's up by 1.9 in North Carolina. Again, if any of these states get called fairly quickly, I'd say the night is over. You can go to bed. But I doubt they will be.
8pm brings us Florida (the final polls in the panhandle close) (Romney up 0.7), New Hampshire (Obama up 2.6), and Pennsylvania (Obama up 4.6). If Pennsylvania's looking tight, that's a really good sign for Romney. None of these states should be easy calls.
9pm brings Colorado (Obama 1.9), Wisconsin (Obama 4.3), and Michigan (Obama 4.7) to a close. By this point in the evening, I think we'll have some sign of whether or not either extreme scenario was right--whether Obama's heading toward a significant win or Romney is. I personally expect it to be very tight still, with both sides acknowledging it was closer than they'd hoped it would be.
10pm--Iowa (Obama 2.6) and Nevada (Obama 3.6) close. If it's still a nail biter by now, I don't see these bring any clarification to the race. This is late enough that I expect some of the earlier states to have been called one way or another. Virginia, North Carolina--something. Those states will hopefully give some clarity to what should happen later. Who knows?


Just taking a look at the polls, it should be clear why the Obama camp feels confident. Of the 12 states I listed here to watch closely, he's up in 9 of them. If the polls are right, the election is a done deal. Then again, if the polls are all skewed the way Republicans are hoping/claiming, then . . . that will be a big deal.




Either way, somebody's going to have some 'splaining to do Wednesday morning if the vote stays true to the polls or slant heavily toward Romney. If it goes toward Romney, then the claims about the Obama "Mainstream Media" bias will have some significant merit. If it goes toward Obama, then those claims look pretty darned hollow.




I do find it ironic that Republicans are using polls to argue against polls. They say that voter identification by Rasmussen and Gallup has Republicans up by anywhere from 5 to 11 points, whereas the polls have them down by the same margins. But of course the only way they know any of those numbers at all is due to polling. Seems to me they're cherry-picking which poll numbers they want to believe. But then again, that's why we vote and don't decide elections based on polls.




Anyway. That's all for today's post. I'll be glued to the tube all night, It should be fascinating drama, to say the least. Whoever you're voting for, please do actually go out and VOTE. It makes a huge difference.
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