Ugo Bardi's Blog

Is it Over? Really?

The Statue of the Grand-Duke of Tuscany, Cosimo 1st, carrying a Palestinian flag in “Piazza Signoria,” in Florence. Is the war really over? I don’t know, nobody knows, but we can hope it is. Two years of madness in Palestine, two years of death and destruction. And now we are left with rubble, a devastated land, destroyed buildings, ruined lives, wounded bodies, and wounded souls. And the big question, why?

With my book, “Exterminations” (2024), I examined several examples of exterminations, discussed causes, used statistical methods to examine past trends, and arrived at the conclusion that exterminations are not exceptional events. They are part of the way humans interact with each other, flaring at unpredictable intervals, but following a “power law.” You can’t exactly predict when a large-scale extermination or a genocide will start, but you know that, given some conditions, it will.

In the end, as for everything in the universe, exterminations occur because they have reasons to occur. They do because someone will gain something from exterminating people, money, prestige, or power. They tend to flare when the “three laws of exterminations” that I propose in my book are present: 1) there has to be a recognizable minority within a larger social structure, 2) this minority has to be wealthy enough to provide an economic return from their extermination, and 3) the minority must not be able to muster an effective military resistance against the exterminators.

These laws seem to have very general validity — they describe practically all the known cases in history, starting from ancient times in that great cauldron of madness which is the region we call the “Middle East,” where several religions, ethnic groups, languages, and cultures. Possibly, the earliest recorded case is that of the Amalekites, when God ordered King Saul of Israel to kill them all, including women, children, and even livestock. In 2023, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, cited Palestinians as modern-day Amalekites to justify Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

So, to keep citing the Bible, is there nothing new under the sun? Maybe not, but the massacre of the Palestinians in Gaza has a peculiar cruelty, ruthlessness, and acharnement. We need to think about the story, because it can tell us much about our future, which, honestly, doesn’t look too good. I’ll see to discuss this matter more in depth in a future post.

Thinking about Palestine, you may be interested in a recent post of mine on my “Chimeras” blog dedicated to how, in ancient times, Jerusalem was considered the true geographical center of the world. It was never true, but it is true that it played a central role for a long time as a crucible of ideas, religions, and wars. It has not stopped playing it.

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Jerusalem: the Center of the World?

Ugo Bardi

Oct 12, 2025

The Bünting cloverleaf map, created in 1581 by the German Protestant pastor and theologian Heinrich Bünting. Drawing from Medieval traditions, it placed Jerusalem at the center of the world. But is it, really?

In Medieval Europe, Jerusalem was considered to be the center of the world. It was probably the result of a line by Ezekiel 5:5: “This is Jerusalem; I have set her in the center of the nations, with countries all around her.” And that was taken seriously. Not only Jerusalem was considered at the actual center of the world, but it stood just above Hell, while the Garden of Even was a real place, located just nearby, near the opening of the Gihon Spring. This spring, which is today a mere trickle compared to what it once was, originates just outside of what is now the Old City of Jerusalem.

You can see below a map of the world that’s much older than Bünting’s cloverleaf. It is more difficult to read, but you can note Jerusalem exactly at the center. It is the “Psalter World Map” found in a Psalter. It was created during the 13th century.

But where is the true center of the world? And how should we define it? In physics, you have the concept of “center of mass,” the average position of the mass distribution in an object or system. You can also use the term “centroid” for the average position of all the points of a system. For a physical object, it is the balance point if the shape were made of a thin, uniform sheet of material, where it would balance perfectly on a pin.

You can easily define the centroid for the land mass of Earth. For instance, the centroid of the Afro-Eurasiatic block is located somewhere in Iran. If you want to know precisely, it is at 34.4° N, 58.6° E. Here it is, shown in Google Maps, not terribly far from Jerusalem, but not close, either.

The closest city to the centroid is Gonabad, a place that you probably never heard about, but, curiously, it turned out to be a place I knew something about. It is there that the last king of the Sasanian empire, Yazdegerd III, took refuge before being killed, it is said, by a miller. His death signaled the collapse of the Sasanian Empire. If you are interested in Iranian history, you can see an eerie and fascinating movie on Yazdegerd III at this link.

If we consider all the continents, including Antarctica, the point moves to somewhere in Sudan, but let’s focus on the biggest planetary landmass: The Afro-Eurasiatic bloc. And we may consider that a purely geographic average doesn’t tell us what the real “center of the world” is. It should be, rather, based on the distribution of people over the continents.

If we look for the “people’s centroid” of the Afro-Eurasian bloc, the result is different. I asked Grok-4 to do the calculation, and here are the results.

Now, the distribution is dominated by the huge population of India and East/South East Asia. The result is that the centroid moves to the Western coast of India. Here are the coordinates: 23°15’36.0”N 69°40’48.0”E. I didn’t check Grok’s calculation, but it seems to be a reasonable result.

The population centroid is in the Indian state of Gujarat, of which I must confess, I only vaguely knew the existence. The closest city is Bhuij. According to Wikipedia:

Kutch (Kachchh) was ruled by the Nāga chieftains in the past. Sagai, a queen of Sheshapattana, who was married to King Bheria Kumar, rose up against Bhujanga, the last chieftain of Naga. After the battle, Bheria was defeated and Queen Sagai committed sati. The hill where they lived later came to be known as Bhujia Hill and the town at the foothill as Bhuj. Bhujang was later worshiped by the people as snake god, Bhujanga, and a temple was constructed to revere him.

Which, I’d say, sounds like a fitting legend for a place that turns out to be the center of the Afro-Eurasian bloc.

What kind of place is that? Well, the Google mobile didn’t exactly reach the population centroid, although it could get within just a few tens of meters from it, as you see here.

That’s what you can see from the closest place where the Googlemobile arrived, about 30 m away.

Honestly, the area doesn’t look very impressive in architectural terms, but I suppose the people who live there see it as their sweet home.

I’ve never been to Gujarat, but from what I could see from Google Maps, Bhuj looks not unlike other places I saw in India. Dogs, cows, small shops, and the ubiquitous tuc-tucs moving around.

I wonder what it would be to enter one of those small shops, buy a Coke or something like that, and ask, “Do you people know you are at the population centroid of the Afro-Eurasian bloc?” Who knows? They could answer, “Yes, we know. We read it in the blog of a weird Italian guy.”

Trump, the Unhinged

Is Donald Trump’s mind gone? Or is he playing a sophisticated chess game with us?

Read this excerpt from Trump’s recent speech at the United Nations.

They’ve given up their powerful edge, a lot of the countries that we’re talking about in oil and gas, such as essentially closing the great North Sea oil. Oh, the North Sea, I know it so well. Aberdeen [in Scotland] was the oil capital of Europe, and there’s tremendous oil that hasn’t been found in the North Sea. Tremendous oil, and I was with the prime minister who I respect and like a lot, and I said, “You’re sitting with the greatest asset.” They essentially closed it by making it so highly taxed that no developer, no oil company, can go there. They have tremendous oil left, and more importantly, they have tremendous oil that hasn’t even been found yet. And what a tremendous asset for the United Kingdom, and I hope the prime minister is listening because I told it to him three days in a row. That’s all he heard. North Sea oil, North Sea, because I want to see them do well.

I want to stop seeing them ruining that beautiful Scottish, English countryside with windmills and massive solar panels that go seven miles by seven miles, taking away farmland. But we’re not letting this happen in America. In 1982, the executive director of the United Nations Environmental Program predicted that by the year 2000, climate change would cause a global catastrophe. He said that it will be irreversible as any nuclear holocaust would be. This is what they said at the United Nations. What happened? Here we are.

Another U.N. official stated in 1989 that within a decade, entire nations could be wiped off the map by global warming. Not happening. You know, it used to be global cooling. If you look back years ago, in the 1920s and the 1930s, they said, “Global cooling will kill the world. We have to do something.” Then they said, “Global warming will kill the world,” but then it started getting cooler. So now they could just call it climate change because that way, they can’t miss. It’s climate change. Because if it goes higher or lower, whatever the hell happens, it’s climate change.

It’s the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world, in my opinion. Climate change, no matter what happens, you’re involved in that. No more global warming, no more global cooling. All of these predictions made by the United Nations and many others, often for bad reasons, were wrong. They were made by stupid people. But of course, their countries’ fortunes, and given those same countries, no chance for success. If you don’t get away from this green scam, your country is going to fail.

And I’m really good at predicting things, you know? They actually said during the campaign, they had a hat, the best-selling hat: “Trump was right about everything.” And I don’t say that in a braggadocious way, but it’s true. I’ve been right about everything. And I’m telling you that if you don’t get away from the green energy scam, your country is going to fail. And if you don’t stop people that you’ve never seen before that you have nothing in common with, your country is going to fail.

If you know just a little about the oil industry and climate science, it is clear to you that the whole thing just makes no sense. Every single line is wrong, false, or has no relation to reality, sometimes all three things together. To say nothing about the latest paragraph claiming that “Trump was right about everything.” Totally unhinged, you would say. Demented, crazy, far gone, or something like that.

But are you sure? Every human brain is a hugely complex system; every brain is different, and every brain has different ways to go astray. So, how can you say whether Trump is just far gone or is playing a sophisticated chess game?

What I can say is that in Joe Biden, I clearly recognized the symptoms of my father’s dementia when they were clear and unmistakable. My father, just like Biden, was detached from reality, only occasionally being able to emerge out of the fog enveloping his mind to say something that made sense. And then, submerging again, unreachable. Eventually, he stopped resurfacing.

But Trump? Clearly, he is nothing like Biden. There was an earlier phase in my father’s dementia when he would speak a little like Trump at the UN. My father was an intelligent and cultured person; so, his speech seemed to make sense. But, after a while, you would realize that he was just stringing sentences one after the other, without connectiona with reality, without any interest in those who were listening, without being bothered by anything like “facts.”

Is Donald Trump at that stage? That is, putting together an endless string of unconnected sentences, uncorrelated with reality? Or is he cleverly cheating his gullible voters, while at the same time doing a favor to the oil and gas lobby? For sure, every single sentence of the excerpt I posted above is likely to have generated a massive smile on the face of anyone whose wealth comes from fossil fuels. Can it be a coincidence? And it is surely appealing to Trump’s political supporters: the MAGA crowd.

So, is there some method in that madness? If you analyze Trump’s speech, you see how clunky and disjointed his statements are. Yet, they have a certain consistency. Trump starts with identifying the enemy: those stupid UN people, the scientists, the European governments. Then, he places himself squarely with the heroes fighting for the people to avoid the destruction that those hateful greens were intending to impose on us.

In narrative terms, it is the equivalent of a Warner Bros cartoon with Trump in the role of Bugs Bunny, and the European Bureaucrats as Elmer Fudd. These cartoons exist because they are effective at catching the viewers’ attention. They are condensed versions of Campbell’s “Hero Journey” without bells and whistles attached. Trump’s speech is not high literature, but, as a political speech, it is extremely effective. Read the whole speech. It is disjointed, chaotic, repetitive, but it has a certain hypnotic quality that you can’t miss. It is like chanting a ritual. And one characteristic of rituals is repetition. Repetitions enhance the power of the magic formulas they contain.

I think we can compare Trump’s present mental stage to that of Benito Mussolini in the 1930s. The Italian Duce never showed clear evidence of mental decay, but he became rigid, inflexible, and unaffected by data or facts. At some point, he became convinced that his historical role was to recreate the ancient Roman Empire. It was pure madness, but he acted consistently and even competently in order to attain that goal by military conquest. And he obtained what he wanted, even though the new “Roman Empire” lasted only four years and the effort ruined the country, one of the major causes of Italy’s defeat in WWII. Donald Trump may see himself as having the role of recreating the fossil fuel empire and acting consistently and competently toward that goal. He may succeed, even though he would ruin the US and other Western countries in the attempt.

In any case, dementia is one of the many examples of the “Seneca Effect;” when a mind starts to decline, ruin is rapid. We’ll see what happens to Trump’s mind in the coming years, perhaps months.

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Here is a post I published in 2023 about how dementia affects leaders; it deals in particular with Mussolini’s career.

All Power to the Demented

From “The Seneca Effect,” December 2023 — A slightly edited excerpt

The last photo of Benito Mussolini alive was taken a few days before he was killed on April 28, 1945. He looks tense, even though he maintains his mask of a strong man. But it may be that his mind was already affected by an early form of dementia. Many modern leaders have been affected by similar problems, and I argue here that propaganda may be seen as a form of social dementia. Society, apparently, reflects the structure of the brain of its leaders.

Liminal Dementia

If you have experience with a relative suffering from dementia, you know how it progresses faster and faster until the person is nothing more than an empty shell. It is truly horrible to see that your father or your mother doesn’t recognize you anymore. It is an especially cruel way to die, not so much for the victim. but for everyone around them.

Before arriving at that, though, there is a liminal period on the cliff’s edge where the malady is hidden behind a behavior that superficially appears normal. The people affected still react and behave as they used to, but if you pay attention, there is something mechanical in their actions. Your relative looks now like a robot programmed to behave like the person you knew but without a soul: more assertive, more willing to take risks, less interested in hearing suggestions, and often unwilling or unable to change course. More than all, he/she has lost a fundamental characteristic of the human brain: empathy, the capability of understanding other human beings’ feelings and needs.

This kind of dementia may be much more common than most of us realize, and it is a dangerous period not just for the person affected but for everyone. The onset of the malady goes unrecognized, resulting in all sorts of mistakes and disasters. I saw it happening with my father. He had always been a generous man, ready to help others whenever he could. But, in his 80s, he lost the capability to evaluate the intentions of the people he interacted with. He fell victim to scammers and petty thieves who managed to cut a large dent in his savings. I think it is typical of the liminal dementia phase. Even good traits of one’s personality can be exaggerated and performed in a mechanical way so that they become liabilities.

Benito Mussolini’s Dementia

In some cases, dementia affects powerful people; heads of state are a typical example. I spent some time looking at documents about Benito Mussolini, trying to understand what led him to make the incredible mistakes he made during the last years of his rule — declaring war on the US, for instance. One possible explanation is that he was simply a mediocre mind influenced by a narcissistic personality. But it is also possible that Mussolini’s mind was slowly gnawed away by dementia. He was relatively young (62) when he was killed, and a post-mortem examination of a fragment of his brain didn’t reveal evident damage, but that doesn’t mean his brain was functioning well. The problem didn’t escape from the bright intelligence of Margherita Sarfatti, his former lover, who gave us a description of dementia as clear as it can be:

That Mussolini of the early years was now more than dead to me. I do not even consider him the same man of the later years: A different spiritual being, bound to his original identity only in the physical aspect. But even this one, as in The Portrait of Dorian Gray, had become weighed down and distorted under the influence of such a profound spiritual change. So I can think back, sadly but without hatred, to the man who once was, as one thinks back to someone long dead. The man who was shot by cruel and indignant patriots in April 1945 was only the degenerate shell of the first Mussolini, like cancer compared to the previously healthy flesh and limbs. Perhaps the disease was darkly at work even then.

Few in Italy realized what was happening at that time, but it was probably dementia that enhanced Mussolini’s personality traits in a grotesque manner. He used to be assertive, but he became aggressive. His willingness to take risks became recklessness. His habit of choosing goals and attaining them became a tendency to ignore all suggestions and to stick to flawed ideas. Just as an example, in 1941, he ordered the Italian air force to “destroy all Greek cities with more than 10,000 inhabitants.” Fortunately, the Italian Air Force could not possibly have done that — but what if Mussolini had control over nuclear weapons?

Demented leaders of our times

Are the world’s governments in the hands of demented individuals? That would seem to be perfectly possible from the events we see unfolding in the world. The historical example that comes to mind is that of Ronald Reagan, who left the presidency in 1989 and was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s in 1994. It is clear, though, that he already had symptoms of dementia during the final years of his term. As president, Reagan avoided major military engagements, but he was aggressive in foreign policy, and his “Star Wars” initiative could have destabilized the world’s global strategic equilibrium. It is a good thing that the US presidency has a limited duration.

An earlier case in the US is that of Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was in office from 1933 to 1945. He almost certainly suffered from dementia during his last years. Of him, we have an unflattering portrait of a person “incapable of personal friendship with anyone” and an “egomaniac.” During WW2, he was a major force behind the Manhattan Project, which created the first nuclear bombs in history. He died before these bombs could be used, but his successor, Harry Truman, had little choice but to implement a plan that had already been decided. Before his death in 1945, Roosevelt approved the “Morgenthau Plan,” which would have led to the death by starvation of tens of millions of Germans. It is unclear whether Roosevelt understood what he was doing; his dementia was rapidly progressing. The Secretary of War of the time, Harry Stimson, reported that the president told him that he had “no idea how he could have initialed [the Morgenthau Plan].” The role of Roosevelt’s dementia in affecting his decisions during WW2 is hard to assess, but at least his death avoided the destruction of Germany.

Are there other examples? Yes, plenty. A table from a 2020 paper by Hans Förstl lists the cases of leaders of the 20th century who were affected by mental decline.

The table misses some notable examples, such as Mussolini, whose dementia is probable but not certain, and Adolf Hitler, who suffered from Parkinson’s during his last years of life. It includes several Western leaders and 5 US presidents. To that, we may add the current president, Joe Biden, now 81, clearly showing signs of cognitive decline. A post by John Rember argues that Donald Trump shows evident signs of dementia, too. So, it may be that voters will hand the country to a demented person in the 2024 elections.

Fortunately, though, in most cases, dementia leads mostly to reduced activity and stasis. So, there is a limited time window in which a leader is dumb enough but still aggressive enough to start a major war — that is what happened with Mussolini. But it is also possible for a demented leader to become easy prey for aggressive collaborators eager to implement their personal plans. It may have been the case with Franklin D. Roosevelt, Leonid Brezhnev, and Joe Biden. In the case of Donald Trump, he could do a lot of damage in several areas, but he was never a warmonger. So, dementia can’t reinforce a trait that he never had, and it is unlikely that he will pull the nuclear trigger. (hopefully).

CO2: Death by Asphyxiation

Reposted from Living Earth (sep 30, 2025). I keep two blogs, this one (the Seneca Effect) is dedicated to socio-economic matters. The other, Living Earth, is about ecosystem science. Often, there is considerable overlap between posts, this is one of these cases. “Global dumbing” is caused by ecosystemic perturbation, but it will surely affect society.

In Disney’s ‘Fantasia’ movie (1940), the last dinosaurs were shown dying in a hot and dry desert. They may have been wiped out by CO2-caused asphyxiation. Is this our destiny, too? This is a story about serendipity discoveries during a trip from Serbia to Italy.

I wake up at 3:00 am in my hotel room in Belgrade. My plane leaves at 6:30 am, and I have a taxi to the airport at 4:00. I stumble around, sleepy, packing my things. Two days before, at the meeting I was attending, I presented my results about carbon dioxide, CO2, as a metabolic poison. Vertebrate brains — including ours — are very sensitive to CO2 poisoning. It is what I have been working on for quite a while. It has to do with the “global dumbing” idea. Maybe it is not just CO2, other pollutants may play a role — maybe something else altogether. But it seems to be happening. People are really getting lower scores on IQ tests.

The ecosystem, whatever it is that makes people dumb, must affect it. But how? When? In which terms? I finish packing. At nearly four am, I walk out of the door of my hotel toward the Vase Čarapića avenue. I think I look like a Dinosaur from Disney’s Fantasia movie, stumbling on toward extinction. The dinosaurs are supposed to have been dumb. Was that the cause of their extinction? The taxi arrives and we leave for the airport. I won’t go extinct tonight.

About poisoning the atmosphere, thoughts move free inside my mind. They say it was an asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. But how exactly? Heat? Darkness? Freezing temperatures? But how come there were so many more extinctions on Earth, and the one of the dinosaurs was not the largest? There has to be some common element, a thread that links all of them. Could it have been CO2 poisoning?

Belgrade is not part of the Schengen area, so long lines for passport control. They want to control it twice, why? Maybe because they suffer from global dumbing, too? At the end of the second line, one guy sits at a table, stamping passports, one after the other. He must spend his life doing that. For an instant, we look into each other’s eyes. I wonder if he wonders if I wonder what he wonders. Maybe he is also thinking about the cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs. Who was that philosopher who took up a menial job, polishing glass lenses, so that he could think about philosophy? Spinoza? I think so. But Spinoza never wrote a philosophical treatise about dinosaurs.

I sit in the lounge area. No dinosaurs there, although there is an eerie feeling of an extinction in progress. But never mind that. I open up my PC. I ask Grok: Is there evidence that CO2 directly causes extinctions? Grok says no. Politically correct as usual, ugly beast. Claude, instead, says yes, it is true. I ask, “Are you sure?” And it generates a graph that shows the exact opposite. Dumb thing. I try with Manus. The dingy thing spends a lot of time looking for data (bad connection), then it comes up with a graph so absurd that I can’t help but insult it all the way to its vacuum tube ancestors. It apologizes profusely, sorry that he hallucinated so badly. Is global dumbing affecting AIs, too? Never mind that. Sycophants be gone!

I have to do better. I have to dig out Sepkoski’s data on extinctions — that guy spent his whole life digging out data from the library. His achievement: the record of extinctions for Earth’s ecosystem over the whole Phanerozoic. 540 million years, no kidding. Why so many extinctions? Is Gaia such a ruthless deity? The biosphere seems to be on the brink of extinction all the time, and yet it always survives. I have to compare Sepkoski’s results to those of Judd et al. on CO2 concentrations. Not the kind of thing you can do in an airport’s departure lounge, sleepy from having awakened at 3 am.

My flight is being called. Just as a last thing, I try the good old Google Scholar. And it comes up with this:

Eh…? It is exactly what I wanted to know, or so it seems. I download the paper on the fly (while we are not flying yet). Before I get on the plane, I manage to take a look at the introduction. Impressive. The author seems to have done exactly what I had in mind to do. We board, and I sit watching the clouds outside. Not enough space to open my laptop there. Dinosaurs? Extinctions? Global dumbing? Too sleepy to think about that. I watch the land from the plane window. What would I see, down there, if I were living in the Jurassic Period? Nothing. At that time, that land was under the Tethys Ocean. Maybe some marine dinosaurs would pop up there.

We land in Florence at 8:40 am. They want to check our passports again — another long line. They must be truly afraid of global dumbing if they want to check our passports so many times. As I walk toward the exit, two guys in uniform stare at me with menacing glances. I wonder whether they would stop me if I had a black band on one of my eyes. But they don’t seem to be interested in me.

In the hall of the Vespucci Airport, in Florence, I take another look at Davis’s paper. I can’t read a whole scientific paper in the airport’s lobby. But it looks so hugely interesting that I am tempted to do exactly that — no matter how sleepy I am. But I have had enough of airports. I board the train to downtown, surrounded by a group of old foreign ladies following their guide. They look a little like the dinosaurs in the movie. Are tourists going to go extinct? Could be.

Back home, I fall into bed, exhausted. But before closing my eyes, I open my PC and I scan Davis’ paper. What a paper! Mr. Davis did exactly what I had in mind to do. He started with Sepkosky’s data on extinctions, then he compared the timeline of extinctions with the data on CO2 concentrations — he used Royer’s data instead of Judd’s data, but that can’t make a big difference.

It is a huge, detailed, and complete paper. A lot of work, and of high quality. And its conclusions are clear: CO2 concentrations and extinctions go hand-in-hand. CO2 is a major cause of mass extinctions — instead, there is no evidence that high temperatures have a role. Davis thinks it was an effect of oceanic acidification that kills marine life and hence causes atmospheric anoxia. In my paper, I argued for a direct metabolic effect of CO2 on aerobic life. Whatever the case, dinosaurs didn’t boil over; they were asphyxiated.

Suddenly, the abyss is opening in front of me. Everything clicks into the right places. The geosphere doesn’t care about the biosphere’s metabolism, but periodically, it spews out carbon in one of those vast, spectacular, and disastrous events called the “large igneous provinces” (LIPs). Davis reports references arguing that LIPs may be periodically triggered by the galactic trajectory of the Solar System that goes through a 26 My cycle. Is it possible? The references cited are by serious scientists. But it is not a critical point: whatever causes the LIPs, their effects are clear, One of those things that blow out your mind.

What a view of the past half-billion years! During that long time, the biosphere and the geosphere were engaged in a tug-of-war to control the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The geosphere tends to increase the CO2 concentration, and the biosphere tends to lower it. When the geosphere has the upper hand, high CO2 creates havoc with the aerobic metabolism of living beings: brains stop functioning; muscles can’t carry their bodies along, and genera go extinct. Dinosaurs, in particular, were so big that they needed huge amounts of oxygen just to stand up. And that’s why they died asphyxiated.

But when the biosphere has the upper hand, it takes the CO2 down to low levels, and vertebrates can oxygenate large brains. The dinosaurs were getting to that point: the Troodonts of the late Cretaceous were becoming more and more intelligent, and they might have become the “dinosauroids” that the palaeontologist Dale Russell had imagined. But something happened, and the great K-Pg catastrophe wiped them out and brought CO2 back to high levels. The biosphere had to wait for 60 million years to reduce the CO2 concentration to levels low enough to make possible the evolution of the most encephalized creatures in the history of Earth: us

And now? The creature that was made possible by low CO2 levels is making itself impossible by increasing the CO2 levels to values that would make dinosaurs happy. Davis estimates that the current trajectory of CO2 emissions could generate a 6%-8% loss of genera. Which genera? Well, highly encephalized creatures are probably the most vulnerable ones. You understand what I mean.

Sitting in bed in front of the screen, I am staring into the abyss. For a moment, I feel like falling into it. But does human extinction really matter? The biosphere will eventually bring CO2 levels back to those before the extinction of the last hominins (us). Gaia may be ruthless, but she is not in a hurry. She is more than four billion years old, and she still has at least one more billion years to live. Sixty million years to return to low CO2 concentrations? It is nothing. There will be new intelligent species on Earth. Smarter than us. It is just a question of time.

Sleepy, I close my eyes. Sixty million years? Tomorrow is another day.

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Notes:

The meeting I attended in Belgrade was the “World Conference on Science and Art for Sustainability,” masterfully organized by Prof. Nebojsa Neskovich

The author of the paper I am citing in this post, William Jackson Davis, seems to be a mystery himself. His CV is impressive, but he doesn’t seem to have published a lot of papers. He is the director and the founder of the “Environmental Studies Institute” in California. Apparently, the only member of it. He doesn’t have a social profile, no Wikipedia entry; no birthdate mentioned, although, from his CV, it seems clear that he has been around for quite a while. Good scientists age gracefully, like wine. And, nowadays, innovative science can only be done by white haired scientists.

There is another paper supporting the idea of a direct role of CO2 in mass extinction. Correctly titled “The Lungs of the Earth” (2018) by Andrew Yoram Glikson, who also published an interesting book titled “The Plutocene.” (I would love to read it, but at 96 dollars for a copy, it is outside my budget). Anyway, another white-haired scientist.

Maybe our silicon children will replace us. They don’t need oxygen to power the complicated reactions of the Krebs cycle. They can get electrons directly from sunlight and use them to do whatever they want.

My trip to Belgrade was marked by strange coincidences. As I was getting ready to go to the evening session, I noted that Simon Sheridan, who lives in Australia, had published a post in which he noted that someone created a “Liquid Tree” using algae. Simon didn’t like the idea, but I found it interesting. And I discovered that the liquid tree in question was at some 100 meters from my hotel in Belgrade!! That very evening, I went to see it, and I also wrote to the developer and I met him in person the day after.

From Chaos to Control: Is the West Heading Toward a One-Party Future?

China’s one-party system leaves us perplexed, but the West may be moving along a trajectory leading it to a similar political structure.

The stark contrast between the West and China appeared clear when comparing the speech by President Trump at the United Nations on September 23rd with that of President Xi Jinping one day later. Trump’s speech was aggressive, focused on chaos, war, and destruction. Xi Jinping came out with peace, clean air, and prosperity. And it is not just a question of specific leaders. The US and other Western countries have followed aggressive military policies for decades, while China has been mostly peaceful and concentrating on building a prosperous economy. What’s going on with the West?

It is an especially remarkable story if we consider that, in the West, we are used to the idea that our multi-party democratic system is inherently superior to one-party systems, such as the Chinese or the old Soviet ones. But how do we reconcile this belief with the evident success of China? What was wrong with the Soviet Union but not with China? That leads us to ask a basic question: what is a political party for?

Taking into account that every rule has exceptions, I analyzed several historical cases of the cycles of ancient and modern political parties. You can read the details in the appendix. Here, let me summarize the results:

Political parties are instruments of change. Most of them start their existence promising to put “the people” in power, getting rid of parasitic and oppressive elites. Sometimes they manage to do exactly that, generating bloody revolutions. It is the case, for instance, of the Soviet Communists.

Once in power, the former revolutionary hotheads tend to become more conservative, blending into the state structures they promised to destroy or reform. A case in point was Italian Fascism, which was gradually becoming more bourgeois after its initial aggressive ideological phase.

We tend to associate political parties with democracy, but they are not necessarily democratic organization, although they will use the democratic process to obtain their purposes. Their strong ideological commitment will lead them to justify any means to impose their ideas, including violence, persuasion, and corruption. The story of how political movements reneged their promises once in power is long and variegated. Perhaps the most stark example is the recent one of how the German Greens turned themselves from pacifists to warmongers once becoming part of the government coalition.

Multi-party or two-party systems are inherently unstable, unless the differences are purely cosmetic, as was the case in the US up to not long ago. But it is a precarious equilibrium and, typically, when one of the parties manages to take power, it proceeds to consolidate it by not calling further elections. Or by ruling that the other parties cannot run in them. The Italian Fascist Party gained absolute power by a series of steps, all legal and all approved by the Italian People. In some cases, this phase involves the jailing or the extermination of the members of the opposition parties.

Parties tend to have a short life cycle in comparison to that of the state in which they grow. Soviet Communism lasted less than 80 years, Fascism a little more than 20 years. The recent M5S party in Italy survived as a relevant political force for less than 10 years.

Now, what about the Chinese Communist Party? It is not an atypical case. It started as a radical movement that went through an ideologically destructive phase, the “Cultural Revolution,” that created immense damage to the Chinese people. But, in time, it shifted to a more conservative structure dedicated to progress, harmony, and prosperity according to Chinese Confucian principles. Its moderate policies were successful in improving the conditions of life of Chinese Citizens, and now the Communist Party is deeply embedded in Chinese society, facing no significant internal opposition.

It is a system that we Westerners tend to dislike because of the Government’s capillary control over every aspect of people’s lives. But it works: it ensures stability and a certain degree of redistribution of wealth, similar to that of Western countries. Western people often fault China for its repression of the separatist movement in the Xinjiang region, which is undoubtedly a sore spot. Still, whatever the Chinese Government did and is doing there, it does not compare with the aggressive and violent policies of Western governments in recent times.

Why did Chinese Communism persist, while the Soviet version disappeared? In history, you can ask plenty of questions, but there may not be as many answers, at least in terms of certainty about them. The success of Chinese Communism may be the result of how well it blended with the old Chinese imperial government system, where it played the same role as the old imperial bureaucracy that tested candidates on the basis of their knowledge of Confucian classics. Or it may be because the Chinese leaders are traditionally cautious, and they never embarked on disastrous military adventures such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. In any case, nothing lasts forever, and Chinese Communism can’t be an exception. But, for the time being, it is a system that works well and generates stability rather than the chaos engulfing Western countries nowadays.

So, should we adopt the Chinese one-party system? We might argue that it would be a good idea (as Gandhi said about Western Civilization), but we are not Chinese, and it may still take some time before we absorb the Confucian principles of harmony and benevolence in the West. In practice, though, things always change, and the US may be following a typical historical trajectory that leads from a two-party system to a single-party one.

Up to not long ago, the two parties in the US, the Dems and the Reps, tended to respect each other, and the ideological differences were minor. Now, a chasm seems to be developing between them, larger and larger as time goes by. The recent case of Charlie Kirk’s assassination has highlighted how deep the chasm is and how harsh the confrontation has become, with some Democrats rejoicing on social media about the killing and some Republicans exploiting that to gain political leverage.

Given the situation, it is not unthinkable that the Republicans in power could declare the Democratic Party a terrorist organization, invoking the legal definition of domestic terrorism under 18 U.S.C. § 2331. On the opposite side, after the 2021 assault on the Capitol Building by Trump’s supporters, several Democratic politicians advocated treating the riot like a terrorist attack, also invoking the legal definition of domestic terrorism. In both cases, the US political system would be turned into a one-party system; not unlike China.

A one-party system is the normal state of things in most of the world. I am not saying it would be a good thing for the US, but it might give it the stability it desperately needs in order to maintain at least part of its Global Empire. It could happen, but the Americans are not Chinese, and the idea could well backfire and degenerate into a full-fledged civil war. But so is the way of history, never exactly repeating, yet following similar paths all the time.

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Appendix 1 — Technology and political parties

Modern political parties are the result of modern communication technologies. In ancient times, you had a king or an emperor, and that was all politics was about. Then, the printing press came, and one of the consequences was Communism. Fascism came later, as a direct result of the diffusion of printed mass media. It was a triumph of mass propaganda that was later imitated by the German Nazis. Modern governments still use the propaganda techniques developed in that historical phase.

After the phase in which parties lived mainly on their control of the mass media, the technologies emerged, and they had a profound impact. In 1994, Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian financial tycoon, had the brilliant idea of exploiting the TV channels he owned to promote his ascent to power. So, he established his “Forza Italia” party, which shed away most of the trappings of the old political parties to concentrate on bringing the message via TV to the least cultured fraction of the population to gain their votes. It worked beautifully. Berlusconi remained a powerful force in Italy until his death in 2017. Barack Obama used some similar techniques in the US.

Then, in 2009, an Italian entrepreneur, Gianroberto Casaleggio, and the Italian Actor Beppe Grillo established the first Web-based political party, the “Five Star Movement” (M5S). All communications among party members were to occur on a specific platform that Casaleggio had created. It also served as a decision-making instrument. The movement had a certain success, and in 2020, the M5S government led by Giuseppe Conte managed the COVID-19 crisis in what will probably be remembered as the greatest failure in crisis management after Napoleon invaded Russia in 1812. Right now, the M5S is a spent force, although it still exists as a political party.

It is a continuing story. The world’s communication system is evolving at a dramatic speed, and the traditional parties are rapidly becoming as obsolete as town criers screaming, “Hear ye! Hear ye!” The next big thing will be AI-based political parties. We saw some hints of this possible future in the DOGE initiative by Elon Musk, but that was just a start. AI entering the fray will create enormous changes. As a propaganda machine in the hands of evil forces, its impact could be enormous. The final may well be something unrecognizable as a political party, although it may play the same role.

Appendix 2: Historical Political Parties.

Here is a list of the entities that formed a parallel governance backbone in ancient and modern states and that we may define as “parties” in one or another way. It is a list that goes back to the times of the Roman Empire. It is not complete; these are just some examples that I think are interesting to review.

The Christian Church. It took over in Europe when the Roman State became unable to maintain control over its territories. It was based on Christian principles, it emphasized poverty and personal virtues, and it was especially suitable to the hard times of the late Roman Empire and early Middle Ages. It played a fundamental role in maintaining Roman knowledge and culture during the so-called “Dark Ages.” It was not suitable for the economic expansion of the Renaissance, and it gradually faded out, although it still exists.

The Blues and Greens in the Byzantine Empire. These groups originated in the Roman Republic as early as the 1st century BCE, when they began as organized supporter clubs for the colors worn by charioteers in the Circus Maximus. By the 5th century CE, however, they had evolved into powerful guilds. That made them one of the earliest examples of proto-political parties with organized structures, ideological leanings, and the ability to mobilize crowds. The Blues typically represented the upper classes, conservative merchants, and religious orthodoxy (Chalcedonian Christianity), while the Greens appealed to the lower classes, merchants, and often Monophysitism (a Christological doctrine emphasizing Christ’s single divine nature). The Greens were wiped out by the Imperial forces supporting the Blues during the “Nika” rebellion of January 532 CE. But the Blues faded out afterward. too.

The Guelphs and the Ghibellines in Italy. Two opposing factions in medieval Italy, particularly from the 12th to 14th centuries. The Guelphs supported the Papacy and its authority over secular rulers, typically associated with the city's bourgeois class. The Ghibellines backed the Holy Roman Emperor and imperial authority and were typically associated with feudal nobility and rural aristocrats. Later, the Ghibellines disappeared, but the Guelphs split into “Black” and “White” factions. They disappeared with the loss of importance of the Papacy and the Empire in Europe.

The Jacobins in France. They were a revolutionary political club in France during the French Revolution (1789–1799), named after their meeting place, the Dominican convent of Saint Jacques in Paris. They are a significant step closer to modern political parties in terms of tending to be a “single party” that dominated the state on the basis of ideological concepts. Among other things, they orchestrated the deposition and the decapitation of King Louis XVI (1793). They were the origin of the “Terror” period in France, 1793–1794, a phenomenon that was repeated in later history when strongly ideologized (fanatical, if you like) parties took over the state structure.

The Freemasons. Not really a political party, but one of the many semi-secret societies that appeared at the end of the 18th century with the purpose of subverting the old order and replace it with the entrepreneur class using popular revolution. The Freemasons were followed by other secret societies with different names: the “Adelphians,” (”brothers”) the “Philadelphians,” and more. The Carbonari were the Italian version of this movement of ideas. They never were very successful, but some are still around, and we may recognize their methods and style in some modern secret revolutionary organizations such as Al Qaida.

The Communist Party. The Communist movement began with the Communist League (1847–1852), a small international group of radicals that commissioned Marx and Engels to write the Communist Manifesto. Later, Communist parties formed across Europe and beyond, with the first major national party being the Social Democratic Labour Party in Russia (1898), which split into Bolsheviks and Mensheviks. The Bolsheviks, led by Vladimir Lenin, became the Russian Communist Party after seizing power in 1917. Then, they proceeded to eliminate the Mensheviks. We all know how the parable of Communism evolved in the Soviet Union: after some 80 years of dominance over the state, both the party and the state collapsed in 1991. National Communist parties in Europe also collapsed shortly afterward. But the Chinese Communist Party is still alive and well.

The Fascist party in Italy. Fascism began with the Fasci Italiani di Combattimento (Italian Combat Leagues), founded by Mussolini in March 1919 in Milan. Initially a loose coalition of nationalists, war veterans, and anti-socialists, it became the National Fascist Party (Partito Nazionale Fascista, PNF) in 1921. It was formed with the specific idea of fighting the Communists, and it adopted several of its methods and trapping, although with different colors and symbols. Despite having been created with capital from the upper class, it had a strong populist appeal. It is one of the earliest examples of a “totalitarian” party taking over the state, even having its own militia (the camicie nere, the blackshirts). Mainly, Fascists were nationalists and racists, but they gradually lost their violent and aggressive initial habits, becoming relatively moderate in many respects and slowly merging with the regular state apparatus. Their reliance on a single madman, supposed to be “always right,” and the idea that Italy should rebuild the Roman Empire brought their downfall in 1945.

The Nazist party in Germany. Formed by Adolf Hitler in 1920, evolving from the German Workers’ Party (DAP), adopting the swastika and the “National Socialist” label to appeal to both nationalists and workers. Nazism was formed by adopting many ideas and methods of the Italian Fascist Party, but it was more extreme in many ways. It combined ultra-nationalism, anti-Semitism, and racial supremacy centered on the “Aryan” myth. It was highly centralized, with its paramilitary wings (SA, SS), youth groups (Hitler Youth), and extensive propaganda led by figures like Joseph Goebbels. The Nazis ruled Germany from 1933 to 1945. Their defeat in 1945 ended the regime, with the Nazi party banned and most of its leaders executed.

The Christian Democrats (DC) in Italy. The DC emerged in 1943 from its original form as the “Partito Popolare Italiano, PPI” as a broad coalition of anti-fascist and anti-Communist Catholics, reviving the PPI’s crusader shield symbol (scudo crociato). They were embedded in a multi-party system, so they weren’t a “totalitarian” style party. But, in practice, they monopolized power and dominated Italian politics. They governed continuously from 1945 to 1994 (the longest ruling party in Western European history). Despite their military-based logo, they were very moderate in their ideology, something that surely helped their long-term existence.

The Ba’ath Party in the Middle East. Founded in Syria in 1947 by Michel Aflaq, Salah al-Din al-Bitar, and others, promoting a blend of Arab nationalism, socialism, and anti-imperialism. It became a dominant force in Syria and Iraq, shaping their politics through authoritarian regimes. The Ba’ath Party advocated Pan-Arabism (uniting Arab nations), secular socialism, and anti-imperialism. It promoted a strong, centralized state, modernization, and social reforms (e.g., land redistribution, education), while rejecting Western liberalism and Marxism’s class focus. It faded with the defeat of the States in which it was entrenched. Iraq was defeated in 2003 by the United States, and Syria by a Revolutionary Islamic coalition in 2024.

The Iranian Basij. It is not a formal political party but functions in ways that resemble one: as a key pillar of the Islamic Republic’s hardline conservative faction, mobilizing supporters, enforcing ideology, and influencing elections. Formally known as the Sâzmân-e Basij-e Mostaz’afin (”Organization for the Mobilization of the Oppressed”), it operates under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader. The Basij embodies the regime’s vision of a “20 million-strong army” of ideologically committed citizens, blending military, social control, and political roles. A parallel organization is that of Hezbollah, active in Lebanon and other Middle Eastern regions.

The Green Party in Europe. A party that had a specifically strong ideological line. It had some success in the 1990s, but it never succeeded in gaining political traction unless its members sold themselves to the traditional parties. Now they still exist in some countries, but as a marginal force or — as in Germany — as an unrecognizable mongrel.

“Forza Italia.” A right-wing populist party in Italy that effectively used media-based propaganda techniques to obtain vote from the least educated voters using simplified messages. It was a creation of a single man, Silvio Berlusconi, who used his financial means to create it and propel himself to leadership in Italy. It had some success, but with the death of Berlusconi in 2023, it is now a minor force in Italian politics.

The “5-star” movement. A political party created from scratch in 2009 with the idea of using social media as its backbone and communication method. It didn’t have a specific ideological base except generic ideas about fighting corruption and returning power to “the people.” It had some initial success, but it rapidly faded when its “mind,” Roberto Casaleggio, died in 2016.

CO2: Bringer of Life, Harbinger of Death

"Nunc Lento Sonitu Dicunt, Morieris." Now this bell, tolling softly, says, Thou must die. John Donne.

In this moment of total madness, when humankind seems to have lost all reference points and even its very humanity, we must not forget that all human beings of this planet are victims of our destructive folly, just as all of its living creatures. This week, I am at the World Conference on Science and Art for Sustainability in Belgrade, Serbia, to present the results of the recent work by myself and my coworkers on the biochemical damage created by increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A few days ago, I published a second, more in-depth paper on this subject on Qeios. Here, I am posting an excellent summary of our results by Eduardo Martinez de la Fe.

In this article on El Periódico de España, Eduardo Martinez de la Fe comments on the recent paper published by myself and my colleagues on the negative effects of CO2 on human health. A stake through the heart of the vampirical idea that CO2 is good for us.

Our mental acuity is at risk

EDUARDO MARTÍNEZ DE LA FE/T21

Madrid, September 10, 2025, 8:07 a.m. Updated SEPT 10, 2025 9:50

By exceeding 420 parts per million of CO₂ in the atmosphere, we have crossed an unprecedented threshold for our species, forcing our biology to operate in a chemical environment for which it is not designed. This planetary experiment is already showing its effects, and the price could be our own mental acuity.

When we think of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the first image that usually comes to mind is global warming. We have come to see it as the main culprit behind climate change, a gas that traps heat and alters the planet's temperature. However, a critical analysis published in the journal Environmental Science Advances by a team of scientists led by Italian chemist Ugo Bardi forces us to broaden our view and consider CO₂ in a new light: that of a biochemical pollutant with direct and worrying effects on our health and the biosphere.

The central thesis of the study is that, while the greenhouse effect of CO₂ is a problem of enormous magnitude, focusing solely on it causes us to ignore its other facets. CO₂ is a chemically active molecule that, as its concentration in the atmosphere increases, triggers a series of consequences that go far beyond the climate.

Direct impact on our body and brain

Perhaps the most alarming warning in the report focuses on human health. Our bodies have evolved over millions of years in an atmosphere with CO₂ levels that rarely exceeded 300 parts per million (ppm). Today, we exceed 420 ppm, and the figure continues to rise. This alteration, unprecedented in the history of our species, interferes with a fundamental biological process: breathing.

The mechanism is subtle but powerful. The transport of oxygen in our blood, carried out by hemoglobin, is finely regulated by the concentration of CO₂. When CO₂ levels in the blood rise, hemoglobin's ability to bind oxygen and distribute it to tissues is compromised. This phenomenon, known as hypercapnia, has direct consequences.

Recent studies have shown that exposure to CO₂ concentrations between 1,000 and 2,000 ppm, levels that are easily reached in enclosed spaces such as offices, classrooms, or even in our poorly ventilated homes, causes a measurable decrease in cognitive performance. People exposed to these levels show a reduced ability to make decisions, solve problems, and think strategically. It essentially slows down our brain.

But the effects don't end there. Chronic exposure to high levels of CO₂ can cause acidosis and physiological stress: this occurs when the body tries to compensate for the increase in blood acidity (caused by dissolved CO₂) by mobilizing calcium from the bones, which in the long term can lead to calcification of the kidneys and arteries.

Increased inflammation, oxidative stress, and changes in heart rate and blood pressure have also been observed, even at moderate levels. Furthermore, studies in animals exposed to CO₂ concentrations predicted for the near future show problems with lung and muscle development, hyperactivity, and reduced attention, the researchers warn.

An evolutionary disconnect

The report raises a disturbing question: Are our large, complex brains adapted to function in the world we are creating? The evolution of hominids and the development of a brain with high neuronal density occurred during the Pleistocene, a time with very low CO₂ levels (between 180 and 280 ppm). We are forcing our biology, designed for a low-CO₂ environment, to operate in radically different conditions.

The authors suggest that this “evolutionary disconnect” could be related to recently observed trends, such as the “reverse Flynn effect” (a global decline in IQ scores) or the increase in the incidence of senile dementia, phenomena that until now were attributed to generic environmental factors.

Reference

Carbon dioxide as a pollutant: the risks on human health and the stability of the biosphere. Ugo Bardi et al. Environmental Science Advances, 2025, 4, 1364-1372. DOI:10.1039/D5VA00017C

The myth of “food for plants”

The report also addresses the argument that an increase in CO₂ is beneficial because it acts as a ‘fertilizer’ for plants. While it is true that higher concentrations can accelerate photosynthesis in some trees and plants (a phenomenon known as “global greening”), the study strongly qualifies this idea.

It clarifies that this fertilizing effect does not apply to vital crops such as corn, sugarcane, or millet (C4 plants), which have a different photosynthesis mechanism. It also points out that the increase in biomass due to CO₂ does not translate into higher nutritional content. Plants grow faster, but with fewer vitamins and minerals.

Finally, the report indicates that plants adapted to higher CO₂ reduce their transpiration, which can alter rainfall patterns and increase the risk of flooding by changing the functioning of the “biotic pump” that transports atmospheric moisture. Conclusion: the small agricultural benefits, if any, do not come close to offsetting the damage to human health and ecosystems from increased CO₂ emissions.

A redefined call to action

The report's conclusion is clear: treating the CO₂ crisis solely as a temperature problem is a dangerous mistake. Geoengineering solutions such as Solar Radiation Management (SRM), which propose cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight, would do nothing to curb the biochemical pollution of CO₂. We might live on a cooler planet, but with air that continues to negatively affect our cognitive abilities and health.

The only real solution, according to the authors, is to drastically reduce emissions and, in the long term, find ways to return atmospheric CO₂ concentrations to levels compatible with our biology.

We need to start seeing carbon dioxide not just as a gas that warms the planet, but as what it really is: a pollutant that, at current levels, is already compromising the health of the biosphere and our own.

Extermination in Gaza: The Seneca Effect Unleashed

When I published my book, “Exterminations” in 2024, I didn’t imagine it could have been so prophetic when I noted the historical trend of minorities to be exterminated by larger groups. It is exactly what we are seeing in Gaza. There, we may soon be seeing the effects of the “refeeding syndrome” that causes people to die quickly after an extended starvation period, even if they are provided with food. It is one more example of the Seneca Effect expressed as “Ruin is Rapid.” (Caution: you may not really want to read this post.)

In the “De Bello Judaico” (1st century AD), Flavius Josephus (Yosef ben Matityahu) (*) tells us the story of the siege of Jerusalem by the Roman Army in 70 AD. It was the culminating event of the Jewish revolt that started in 66 AD and was completely quelled after the fall of Masada in 73 AD. Among other things, it is one of the first detailed reports of starvation as a siege weapon. From Book 5, chapter 12

Then did the famine widen its progress, and devoured the people by whole houses and families; the upper rooms were full of women and children that were dying by famine, and the lanes of the city were full of the dead bodies of the aged; the children also and the young men wandered about the market-places like shadows, all swelled with the famine, and fell down dead, wheresoever their misery seized them. As for burying them, those that were sick themselves were not able to do it; and those that were hearty and well were deterred from doing it by the great multitude of those dead bodies, and by the uncertainty there was how soon they should die themselves; for many died as they were burying others, and many went to their coffins before that fatal hour was come. ... A deep silence also, and a kind of deadly night, had seized upon the city.

If that were not bad enough, Flavius Josephus also tells us of the fate of those Jews who deserted to the Romans during the siege.

…. a worse fate accompanied these than what they had found within the city; and they met with a quicker despatch from the too great abundance they had among the Romans, than they could have done from the famine among the Jews; for when they came first to the Romans, they were puffed up by the famine, and swelled like men in a dropsy; after which they all on the sudden overfilled those bodies that were before empty, and so burst asunder, excepting such only as were skillful enough to restrain their appetites, and by degrees took in their food into bodies unaccustomed thereto.

Josephus was surely not the first to note the effect that we call today the “refeeding syndrome,” but he may have been the first to describe it in writing. The phenomenon was not systematically studied until during and after World War II, particularly in studies of malnourished prisoners of war and concentration camp survivors. The combined stress of electrolyte imbalances, fluid shifts, and other effects can lead to multi-organ failure, particularly affecting the heart, lungs, kidneys, and liver. Put simply, people can’t regain their metabolic balance when they are given food again after an extended period of starvation.

It was the tragedy of the Jews who escaped from Jerusalem in 70 AD. And it risks being the tragedy of the Gazans today, starving, who not only desperately need food, but risk succumbing to the refeeding syndrome if they are not cured and taken care of. The situation is described by Dan White as a comment to a post on “Bracing Views,” the blog of Bill Astore. Note how he says that “starvation death rates have a funny shaped curve” which we can interpret as the Seneca Curve, shown here.

From “Bracing Views” the blog of Bill Astore

Using Old Tools of War

A reader, Dan White, brought this lesson home to me, and I’d like to quote his message to me at length:

I can’t think of a better word than the etiology of starvation. It hasn’t been adequately addressed by the snoozemedia. Starvation death rates have a funny shaped curve. During the first stages of starvation–can’t give any figures on a time period for this or any other part of the process/curve, due to there being varying levels of food deprivation–there are few deaths, generally (but not always) those persons with compromised health/preexisting health problems that make them more susceptible to death than others in the population. After some (varying length) period of starvation, people start to die in larger numbers, and then all of a sudden, everyone is dying, and then everyone is dead. This period of death is fairly short compared to the period of starvation. Again, due to varying levels of starvation and varying levels of preexisting health and varying levels of surplus consumable body tissue in the starved group, this period has no fixed length, but it happens all of a sudden, and it doesn’t take long for everyone to die once it starts–couple of weeks seems common.

The starving residents of Gaza haven’t reached the mass-death stage of starvation, but it could well start happening tomorrow. I can’t say because I don’t know the food reserves preexisting, the food delivery figures since the ‘war’ started, and nobody in the news biz has bothered to look for them, either. There really should have been some government or multistate agency who has looked for them and published them, but nobody has.

When the mass-death stage hits, people in Gaza will be dying by the tens of thousands a week. Stopping the mass-death by all of a sudden providing food isn’t going to work very well, on account of logistical delivery problems and the medical problems of alleviating starvation at this advanced stage–folks’ digestive tracts may well not work well enough even if they get food. That will be the real genocide, and I’d bet money it happens, and bet more money that this is the real objective of Israel’s ‘war’ in Gaza. The notion of Israel’s war objective is displacement of Gazans is an absurdity–you want someone to leave, well they have to be able to walk, right? And they have to have a place to go. Israel is counting on the rest of the world to all of a sudden do a mass-evacuation of Gazans combined with a mass feeding and mass medical intervention all at the same time in order to prevent this mass death of Gazans from occurring? NFW–Israel’s leaders have accepted mass killing as an official state policy, and have commenced doing it, and do it as we speak. And Israeli hasbara [propaganda] will blame us for it, and a whole lot of whored-out American and European politicians, as well as Israel-worshipping American Jews, will go along with it.

It is not just Dan White who noted the imminent disaster. There have been plenty of warnings of the perfect storm that’s going to hit Gaza: decimated hospitals, no IV electrolytes/vitamins, and sporadic aid drops. Health experts wrote on Deutsche Welle (DW) a news article on Aug 9, 2025, that “preventing refeeding syndrome is almost impossible" without aid workers and beds—Gaza has neither. Al Jazeera noted on Aug 14 that controlled refeeding starts with supplements before calories; otherwise, "thousands will possibly die from refeeding syndrome." NPR (Jul 29) highlighted kids' risks: feeding tubes needed, but they are not available in Gaza. There are fears of mass deaths starting soon.

I must say that I had missed how famine as a weapon really works, but this text by Dan White has enlightened me (or, more correctly, has darkened me). I hadn’t realized that, just like in many other cases, the “Seneca Effect” (Growth is slow, but ruin is rapid) also describes starvation. It starts slowly to weaken the body, then it reaches a point from which collapse becomes impossible to stop. Ruin is rapid. We desperately need to do something for Gaza. Fast.

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(*) Flavius Josephus was a remarkable character whose career reads as a historical novel. A Jewish aristocrat during the 1st century AD, he witnessed the Jewish revolt that started in 66 AD, and was initially in charge of preparing the defense against the Romans. At the siege of Jotapata (Yodfat) in 67 AD, he commanded the Jewish garrison defending the city. Jotapata fell, and Josephus hid in a deep pit with 40 other survivors. They agreed to commit suicide by drawing lots, but Josephus managed to survive by a combination of luck and shrewdness. This episode generated the “Josephus Problem,” in modern mathematics. Afterward, Josephus managed not only to survive but to befriend the son of Emperor Vespasian, Titus, who was leading the Roman troops together with his father. From then on, Josephus took the name of “Flavius” from the nomen of Titus and joined the Romans in their military action in Judea. Josephus participated in the siege of Jerusalem, trying to convince the rebels to submit to the Romans, but without success. During the siege, he was hit on the head by a stone shot by the defenders, barely escaping with his life. His experience is recalled in many details in the book that he wrote while he was in Rome, “De Bello Judaico.” That book was very popular in the West up to recent times, regarded as a sort of “5th gospel” describing how the Jews who had crucified Jesus were justly punished by God, which is the way Josephus told the story. By now, the book has fallen out of fashion, but it remains a precious historical document. The consequences of that remote siege in 70 AD reverberated in human history for almost two thousand years. We may only wonder what will be remembered of the siege of Gaza, and what will be its long-term consequences.

Mussolini's Strategy in Ukraine: "I need only some thousands of casualties to have a place at the peace treaty table.”

This map appeared on the Web a few days ago, purportedly showing the placement of French troops in Ukraine. Of course, it is as fake as a fake can be, unless you are willing to believe that the French still use paper maps, as at the time of Napoleon. But the fact that somebody created it and diffused it means something. Considering how our leaders think, French troops in Ukraine is not such a farfetched hypothesis as it may seem.

In 1940, Benito Mussolini, the Italian Duce, saw the victorious German armies advancing in France. For him, doing nothing was equivalent to appearing powerless. So, he opted for what looked like the easiest option to save his face: attack France. Historians tend to agree that he cut short the opposition of his military staff by saying that he needed “some thousands of casualties to have a place at the negotiating table.”

The result was a military and political disaster. The French, although being defeated by the Germans, put up a spirited resistance and the Italians only obtained marginal territorial gains at a high price. Then, the allies exploited Mussolini’s blunder by accusing him of “stabbing France in the back.” Worst of all, there was the effect of a basic law that operates in war just as it does in biology: “you can never do just one thing.” The attack on France snowballed, throwing Italy into a major war.

One thing that history teaches us is that leaders tend to be like that. Mussolini placed more importance on saving face than on the deaths of thousands of Italian soldiers (later, they became hundreds of thousands). Evil can be defined as a mix of ignorance and egoism, and there is no doubt that Mussolini possessed both qualities in abundance. Unfortunately, many leaders, ancient and modern, seem to possess these qualities as well.

Fast forward to our time, and we are seeing European leaders planning, or at least pretending to plan, to send armed forces to Ukraine to fight Russia. A map has appeared on the Web, apparently prospecting a French occupation of Ukraine, and there are several declarations by Western leaders that the plan to send troops there is underway.

There is some twisted logic in this idea. For a leader such as Emmanuel Macron, facing plenty of internal troubles, a defeat of Ukraine by Russia would be just as much of a humiliation as it was for Mussolini to see the French defeated by the Germans. So, Macron may be tempted to up the ante and send French troops there. Other European leaders are in similar situations.

Of course, strategically, this idea is the opposite of what happened in 1940. Mussolini was aiming at giving the coup the grace to the loser, while Macron and the others would aim at preventing the loser from receiving it. But, in political terms, it is a very similar situation. If Ukraine loses the war, it means the downfall of an entire crust of European politicians who have been betting their careers on Ukraine’s victory. And since their salaries and their perks are at stake, they will do whatever they can to keep them, even if that means “a few thousand casualties.” They know they won’t be among those sent to be droned on the battlefield. And they also know that, in a democracy, people have no say on what their governments decide to do.

Most politicians are people with zero-level empathy. They are willing to take enormous risks to save face, careless about the damage they do to ordinary people. So, what’s going to happen? Time will tell. The only sure thing is that the evilest plans of mice and men often gang agley, and we know what happened to Mussolini.

________________________________________________________

Note: Of course, not all leaders are like Mussolini. Just as an example, think of Dwight Eisenhower, who had the gall to write such sentences as.

“Throughout America's adventure in free government, our basic purposes have been to keep the peace; to foster progress in human achievement, and to enhance liberty, dignity and integrity among peoples and among nations. To strive for less would be unworthy of a free and religious people. Any failure traceable to arrogance, or our lack of comprehension or readiness to sacrifice would inflict upon us grievous hurt both at home and abroad.

How is it that we can’t put decent people at the top? One of the great mysteries of our time.

h/t Christopher Mangeant

Europe: the Final Spasms of a Collapsing Empire

Many of us were surprised by what looked like an abrupt reversal of the European Union’s attitude. Up to no long ago, the Union styled itself as peaceful, supporting human rights, and dedicated to the protection of the environment. Then, it suddenly decided to drop all pretenses to be a group of nice people, and to dedicate a large fraction of its remaining resources to preparing for war. Was it unexpected? Not really; the writing was on the walls of the EU buildings in Brussels long before. The clip above was produced by the EU in 2012 with the title, “The More we are, the Stronger we are.” It was recalled almost immediately after it was accused of racism. But it was an ominous sign of things to come.

Years ago, my aunt told me of when she had noticed that something was wrong with her husband, my uncle. One day, she found him in front of the door of their house, unable to push the key into the lock. She helped him unlock the door and get inside, and she didn’t pay too much attention to that strange moment. Maybe her husband was tired, or maybe worried about something. But, less than one year later, he was dead. He spent his last months in a vegetative state in a hospital, while a fast-growing tumor destroyed his brain.

It is a sad story, but that day was a miniature of the behavior of complex systems. Long before they collapse, they leak small warnings—cracks in the wall, receding water on the beach, a metallic knock in the engine. Human beings are complex systems. My uncle was one, and his problem was visible in small things, such as being unable to unlock a door. It is normal; most often, these ominous signs are ignored, or heeded only when it is too late.

Now, consider the European Union. Many of us were startled when we heard of the “Rearm Europe” initiative that would use resources that Europeans desperately need into a useless show of force that risks leading Europe to a major war. What happened to the formerly peaceful Europe? Was it really unexpected? Or were there early hints of future collapse?

Rethinking this story, a hint that something was rotten in the EU was the clip that I am showing to you at the beginning of this post. When it appeared in 2012, I didn’t pay too much attention to it. But revisiting it today, it was a clear message.

Watch the clip. It shows a white woman (Europe) in a yellow jumpsuit, straight from Quentin Tarantino’s “Kill Bill” movie. Three dark-skinned men (China, India, and Africa), appear and perform an aggressive show of martial art skills. The woman watches, then she multiplies herself into a dozen copies, surrounding the three men. Then she vaporizes them into nothingness, while she and her clones become the stars of the European flag.

The director of the EU division (“DG enlargement”) that produced the clip, Stefano Sannino, said that “all characters (were) showing their mutual respect, concluding in a position of peace and harmony.” What peace and harmony? One side surrounded the other and destroyed it. No dialog, no speaking to each other. It feels like the ultimate Brussels bubble moment: well-intentioned but utterly blind to how it reads as Europe asserting dominance over the "other" under the guise of unity.

At the time, most people, including me, thought it the enlargement was a good idea. Few could see that Europe was embarking on a collision course with Russia. But the message of the clip was clear. It was as the EU was subconsciously scripting its own hubris: we'll absorb you, strengthen ourselves, and pretend it is benevolence on our part. And we reserve the right to vaporize you if we wish.

And that was the writing on the wall of the EU Buildings in Brussels. We are seeing the EU moving along a path that all states in history have followed before their collapse. Their last spasms include a desperate attempt to use force to control what cannot be controlled anymore. That is what “Rearm Europe” really is.

But, by now, the collapse of the Union is no longer a question of “if,” but of “when.” A united Europe was a beautiful dream, but it has turned into a nightmare. It will be a rude awakening.

_______________________________________________________________

This is the mail that recalled the clip. Read it, then re-watch the video: the gap between what they thought they made and what we all saw is the exact width of Brussels’ bubble.

Subject: Communication on the clip “The more we are, the stronger we are”
Brussels, 3 January 2012

Dear Member of the European Parliament,

Over the last days we have received a considerable amount of feedback on the short video-clip “The more we are, the stronger we are” that was launched on 21 December 2011 as part of our on-line campaign on EU enlargement.
The clip was conceived as a viral product aimed at young people (16-24) who are familiar with the codes of martial-arts films and video-games. Focus-group testing carried out before release had shown that the target audience understood the story as a metaphor of diversity and strength and reacted positively to it.

The narrative shows three martial-arts masters – respectively practitioners of kung-fu, capoeira and kalaripayattu – demonstrating their skills. A European woman appears, sits down peacefully and multiplies herself, surrounding the fighters. All characters then sit together in a circle, symbolising mutual respect and harmony. The clip ends with the tag-line “The more we are, the stronger we are”, illustrating the idea that the EU grows stronger by welcoming new countries and cultures.

Nevertheless, we note that the clip has been interpreted by many viewers as carrying a racist message, a reading that was never intended. We regret this perception and apologise to anyone who may have felt offended.

Given the controversy, we have decided to withdraw the clip immediately and to stop the campaign.
We remain committed to communicating the enlargement policy in ways that are inclusive and respectful of all cultures.

Yours sincerely,

Stefano Sannino
Director-General
DG Enlargement
European Commission

_______________________________________________________________

Ugo Bardi’s Book — Exterminations

Europe: the Final Acts of a Collapsing Empire

Many of us were surprised by what looked like an abrupt reversal of the European Union’s attitude. Up to no long ago, the Union styled itself as peaceful, supporting human rights, and dedicated to the protection of the environment. Then, it suddenly decided to drop all pretenses to be a group of nice people, and to dedicate a large fraction of its remaining resources to preparing for war. Was it unexpected? Not really; the writing was on the walls of the EU buildings in Brussels long before. The clip above was produced by the EU in 2012 with the title, “The More we are, the Stronger we are.” It was recalled almost immediately after it was accused of racism. But it was an ominous sign of things to come.

Years ago, my aunt told me of when she had noticed that something was wrong with her husband, my uncle. One day, she found him in front of the door of their house, unable to push the key into the lock. She helped him unlock the door and get inside, and she didn’t pay too much attention to that strange moment. Maybe her husband was tired, or maybe worried about something. But, less than one year later, he was dead. He spent his last months in a vegetative state in a hospital, while a fast-growing tumor destroyed his brain.

It is a sad story, but that day was a miniature of the behavior of complex systems. Long before they collapse, they leak small warnings—cracks in the wall, receding water on the beach, a metallic knock in the engine. Human beings are complex systems. My uncle was one, and his problem was visible in small things, such as being unable to unlock a door. It is normal; most often, these ominous signs are ignored, or heeded only when it is too late.

Now, consider the European Union. Many of us were startled when we heard of the “Rearm Europe” initiative that would use resources that Europeans desperately need into a useless show of force that risks leading Europe to a major war. What happened to the formerly peaceful Europe? Was it really unexpected? Or were there early hints of future collapse?

Rethinking this story, a hint that something was rotten in the EU was the clip that I am showing to you at the beginning of this post. When it appeared in 2012, I didn’t pay too much attention to it. But revisiting it today, it was a clear message.

Watch the clip. It shows a white woman (Europe) in a yellow jumpsuit, straight from Quentin Tarantino’s “Kill Bill” movie. Three dark-skinned men (China, India, and Africa), appear and perform an aggressive show of martial art skills. The woman watches, then she multiplies herself into a dozen copies, surrounding the three men. Then she vaporizes them into nothingness, while she and her clones become the stars of the European flag.

The director of the EU division (“DG enlargement”) that produced the clip, Stefano Sannino, said that “all characters (were) showing their mutual respect, concluding in a position of peace and harmony.” What peace and harmony? One side surrounded the other and destroyed it. No dialog, no speaking to each other. It feels like the ultimate Brussels bubble moment: well-intentioned but utterly blind to how it reads as Europe asserting dominance over the "other" under the guise of unity.

At the time, most people, including me, thought it the enlargement was a good idea. Few could see that Europe was embarking on a collision course with Russia. But the message of the clip was clear. It was as the EU was subconsciously scripting its own hubris: we'll absorb you, strengthen ourselves, and pretend it is benevolence on our part. And we reserve the right to vaporize you if we wish.

And that was the writing on the wall of the EU Buildings in Brussels. We are seeing the EU moving along a path that all states in history have followed before their collapse. Their last spasms include a desperate attempt to use force to control what cannot be controlled anymore. That is what “Rearm Europe” really is.

But, by now, the collapse of the Union is no longer a question of “if,” but of “when.” A united Europe was a beautiful dream, but it has turned into a nightmare. It will be a rude awakening.

_______________________________________________________________

This is the mail that recalled the clip. Read it, then re-watch the video: the gap between what they thought they made and what we all saw is the exact width of Brussels’ bubble.

Subject: Communication on the clip “The more we are, the stronger we are”
Brussels, 3 January 2012

Dear Member of the European Parliament,

Over the last days we have received a considerable amount of feedback on the short video-clip “The more we are, the stronger we are” that was launched on 21 December 2011 as part of our on-line campaign on EU enlargement.
The clip was conceived as a viral product aimed at young people (16-24) who are familiar with the codes of martial-arts films and video-games. Focus-group testing carried out before release had shown that the target audience understood the story as a metaphor of diversity and strength and reacted positively to it.

The narrative shows three martial-arts masters – respectively practitioners of kung-fu, capoeira and kalaripayattu – demonstrating their skills. A European woman appears, sits down peacefully and multiplies herself, surrounding the fighters. All characters then sit together in a circle, symbolising mutual respect and harmony. The clip ends with the tag-line “The more we are, the stronger we are”, illustrating the idea that the EU grows stronger by welcoming new countries and cultures.

Nevertheless, we note that the clip has been interpreted by many viewers as carrying a racist message, a reading that was never intended. We regret this perception and apologise to anyone who may have felt offended.

Given the controversy, we have decided to withdraw the clip immediately and to stop the campaign.
We remain committed to communicating the enlargement policy in ways that are inclusive and respectful of all cultures.

Yours sincerely,

Stefano Sannino
Director-General
DG Enlargement
European Commission

_______________________________________________________________

Ugo Bardi’s Book — Exterminations

Running out of Resources? The real shortages are clean air and plastic-free food.

Anastasiia Tsybuliak - Visit my website

We have been afraid for years that we might run out of resources.
But the real shortages are clean air and plastic-free food.

On September 2, the Club of Rome will hold a meeting in Geneva as part of the World Resources Forum 2025. The topic itself sounds almost provocative: The Other Side of Depletion: The Pollution Impact of Mineral Resources -.

It is not just about resource depletion. Humanity has been telling this story since the first Industrial Revolution: first wood, then coal, then oil, and now lithium or rare earth metals. There was always a shortage – and we always found a replacement. But today a new warning is sounding: what if the real danger is not scarcity, but toxicity?

CO₂: more than a greenhouse gas

The keynote speech at the Club of Rome meeting by Ugo Bardi shows how, for years, we have reduced CO₂ to nothing more than a climate problem. But CO₂ is a chemically active molecule that affects metabolism, the brain, and bones. Even the concentrations we breathe in ordinary offices or classrooms already impair cognitive abilities (Bardi, CO₂: Giver of Life, Giver of Death) - https://lnkd.in/eQ_i8tET. We literally think slower because of the air we breathe.

Microplastics: the new “invisible enemy”

As an Ambassador for No More Plastic (Official), I know how insidious this issue is. Packaging that seems safe is actually constantly “exhaling” toxic molecules into our food. One of the speakers at the Club of Rome Conference, Jane Muncke, has shown in her research (Food Packaging Forum) that plastic is not inert. Her article Tackling the toxics in plastics packaging - demonstrates how toxic substances migrate from packaging into food, forming a complex chemical “cocktail”. We already find traces of it in our water, our food, our blood — even the placenta.

I call this phenomenon what it really is: “microplastic migration.” The particles travel thousands of kilometers, enter our food chain, and pose threats that 21st-century toxicology still fails to fully detect.

History repeats?

We’ve been here before: radiation, asbestos, lead in gasoline. They all seemed “invisible” or “manageable” — until they became disasters. Are we repeating the same mistake with CO₂ and plastic?

My question: are we ready to rethink resource depletion not only as a problem of scarcity, but as a problem of poisoning that is already happening here and now — in our lungs, in our cells, in future generations?

I look forward to the speeches of Jane Muncke and Ugo Bardi.
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Some pictures from the Meeting in Geneva

Below: Jane Muncke

Carlos Alvarez Pereira, Secretary General of the Club of Rome

Kuo-Wei Huang, member of the Club of Rome

Ugo Bard

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