Garry Kasparov's Blog, page 25

How the Free World Gave Putin the Green Light | New York Daily News | February 25, 2022

On Thursday, Germany invaded Ukraine. So did the Netherlands, Italy, France, UK and every other country that has funded Putin’s war machine for the past decade. Now they must help save Ukraine from the monster they helped create. My op-ed: https://t.co/jhrWomRTqo

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 25, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can see the original at the New York Daily News

By Garry Kasparov

“Early Thursday morning, Germany invaded Ukraine. So did the Netherlands, Italy, France, Great Britain and every other country that has supported Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s war machine for the past decade. The missiles that slammed into Kharkiv, the helicopters attacking an airport near the capital Kyiv, every bullet in every Russian paratrooper’s gun — all were built or bought largely with money from the free world. That same free world now stands in shock that these weapons are being used to do what they were designed to do.

Europe bought Russian gas and oil and welcomed Putin’s oligarch cronies’ looted billions in IPOs, real estate purchases, and political donations legal and illegal. Even after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Crimea, Europe tried to keep business as usual separate from Russia’s assault on European security and the global world order.

On Thursday, Putin repaid them in full for their years of appeasement. After weeks of posturing and dramatic calls for summits and negotiations made headlines around the world, he sent his massed forces into Ukraine on the schedule he set months ago. The preening shuttle diplomacy by France’s Emanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz was revealed to have been a waste of time for everyone but Putin, who used it to ready his forces for the attack.

That time could have been used to arm Ukraine with the weapons it badly needs to fend off Russia’s overwhelming military superiority. It could have been used to level sanctions to demonstrate that this time, for once, the West was serious about deterrence. Instead, Ukraine was treated like a beggar and sanctions were kept in reserve, as a threat Putin had little reason to expect was serious. After all, goes his thinking, if you have the power to stop me and choose not to use it, aren’t you giving me the green light?

It’s not as if Putin tried to hide what he was doing. Spies and satellites weren’t necessary to tease out that Russia was investing record sums in its military capacity and security forces; it was right there in the national budget for years. Russia may be falling apart and falling behind, but there was always plenty of cash for security forces and propaganda, the budget of a dictator.

Putin was so confident of his potential rivals’ obliviousness and cowardice that he brought nearly every mobile element of the Russian military to Ukraine’s border over the course of two months. There were barely any of the usual pretexts about “exercises,” even when Russia took the unusual step of moving a large force into Belarus, where they were poised just a couple hours from Kyiv as the tank drives.[image error]

Of course, this is far from the first time that the world has ignored Putin’s warnings, let alone mine. Five years into his rule in Russia, Putin infamously stated that “the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” Few took it seriously or understood it to mean that Putin would try to reverse that catastrophe should he have the chance. Much the way Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” was considered little more than hateful ranting when it was published in 1925, a clear warning was ignored.

Now a war of conquest has erupted in Europe, the greatest ever threat to the post-World War II order of borders and laws. Tanks are rolling, ballistic missiles are flying and jets are dogfighting above major cities. Putin has followed through on his promise to try to crush Ukraine, which he first invaded in 2014. My Daily News op-ed on Putin at the time was bluntly titled “Stop This Man.” Needless to say, Putin has not been stopped.

Eight years later, Putin and his war machine are much stronger. Instead of being politically isolated and economically cut off, his regime has profited from record gas and oil exports. Most profits are siphoned off into the private accounts that make Putin and his cronies the richest people in the world. Much of the rest has gone into a literal war chest, expanding and improving Russia’s military and internal security forces and filling a reserve fund to help them weather sanctions.

Time has made Putin’s grip on power in Russia stronger as well, with every significant critic dead, jailed or exiled. The last major protests, in 2020 on behalf of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were met by an army of well-equipped riot police. Their shiny new helmets and batons were also paid for by the same European nations whose leaders meekly protested the brutality.

Putin is not invulnerable, nor is his army. Ukraine is fighting hard, and if the initial onslaught is repulsed, and aid arrives in time, Putin could find himself in a difficult position. He will have to either retreat or choose total war against an urban population, which could shock even sleepy NATO into action.

Russians came out to protest this war in the largest numbers since 2020, with more than 1,700 arrests across the country on the first day. Most Russians get their news from state-controlled television, unfortunately, where they are told this is a war of self-defense against the “Nazis” in Ukraine and their masters in America. (Really.) But the longer the war goes on, the more obvious it will be that Putin’s needless war on Ukraine is also part of Putin’s war on Russians.

Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and Putin invokes it regularly, but there is much that can be done to constrain him and save lives now. After years of my warnings and proposals being ignored, and now hearing “You were right, Garry!” all day, I’ll repeat what I said in 2014: Stop telling me I was right and start listening now. My recommendations:

Support Ukraine militarily, immediately. Everything but boots on the ground, meaning every advanced weapon, intelligence and cyber-capabilities. It has to be now. If Ukraine falls, Putin will bleed it dry to compensate for sanctions and dig in, as he has in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Victory in Ukraine is also the only way to avoid doing this all again and again when Putin needs new targets to distract from the disastrous state of Russia.Bankrupt Putin’s war machine by freezing and seizing Russian assets and access to markets. Kick Russia out of SWIFT and other financial networks, and every international institution.Expose and seize the assets of Putin’s cronies and their companies and families in the free world. Take away their visas and send them back to live in the dictatorship they helped build.Recall all ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in diplomacy or communications with a rogue dictatorship making war. Send the message that isolation will be total until all aggression ceases and Ukraine is made whole.Turn off, shut down and send home every element of Putin’s global propaganda machine. Russia Today and other platforms beam lies and hate into millions of homes in the free world, while Putin maintains total control of the media in Russia.Call out Putin’s lackeys in the free world. The lobbyists, the law firms, the former politicians like German ex-chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who chairs two of Putin’s strategically important energy companies. This includes the fifth columnists of all political stripes who side with a dictator for ideology or Russian cash. Why do executives and advertisers tolerate the likes of Tucker Carlson braying Putin propaganda in prime time? Trump and his acolytes in Congress still can’t find a discouraging word for Putin and repeat Russian propaganda blaming NATO and Biden even as Russian bombs fall on Ukraine. I’ve bashed every U.S. president since Reagan over Russia policy, but praising a bloodthirsty dictator to score partisan points is disgusting and un-American.Replace Russian energy exports by increasing production and opening new sources, from fracking to nuclear to renewables. Giving authoritarians so much leverage for extortion is unacceptable. There’s no point in saving the planet if you don’t save the people on it.

Joe Biden’s Cold War background has prepared him better than most of his European peers. His grave tone and announcement of serious sanctions were a welcome start. Most EU leaders, even the ones in the East who grasp the danger Putin represents, are a generation removed from confrontation and conflict. But now they must help Ukraine fight against the monster they helped create.

This is war, a hot war, no longer deterrence, and time is of the essence to get weapons to Ukraine so it can fight the war for freedom that the rest of the world has preferred to pretend isn’t real.

We must acknowledge that there will be sacrifices involved. The price of stopping Putin has gone up since 2008, when he invaded Georgia, and since 2014, when he first invaded Ukraine, but it will only get higher if he isn’t stopped now. Failing to fight will only postpone the inevitable to another time and place.

Defending Ukraine from Putin is the defense of the free world. Defending Ukrainian lives is the defense of Western values. America used to care about such things, I recall from my life in the Soviet Union that Putin misses so much. It’s time to do what is needed and to do what is right. It’s time to fight.

Kasparov is chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.”

Putin Has Been Preparing this War in Plain Sight | MSNBC Morning Joe | February 24, 2022

You can see the original video at MSNBC.

Interview with Masih Alinejad, Part I | February 24, 2022

Part 1 of my interview with @Kasparov63, Russian chess grandmaster and political activist: “Facing Putin, I knew I had to play a different game. When I played chess, I played by the rules. When you face dictators, they bend the rules any time they want.” pic.twitter.com/77RsoFRq0K

— Masih Alinejad (@AlinejadMasih) February 24, 2022

What is Putin’s End Game | Christiane Amanpour, PBS | February 24, 2022

Russian pro-democracy leader and chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov weighs in on the crisis in Ukraine. @WalterIsaacson @Kasparov63https://t.co/MV8RzrLGnP

— Amanpour and Company (@AmanpourCoPBS) February 24, 2022

You can see the original interview on Youtube or at PBS.

 

Putin Controls More Money Than Any Individual in History | MSNBC | February 24, 2022

Putin’s Achilles heel is that he and his mafia keep their money, assets, and families in the free world they say they despise. This helped them spread corruption, but it also gives tremendous leverage–if we’re finally willing to use it. https://t.co/Cu6fPJdCEK

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 24, 2022

Visit Grabien to see my latest appearance on MSNBC.

EXCERPT:

SCARBOROUGH: “Well, let me ask you. What could have been done before this invasion that was not done? You don’t think United States troops could go into Ukraine, do you?”
KASPAROV: “No, I never argued for American tanks, but I always said banks, banks was a key to stop Putin aggression. Every aggressor needs money. He needs resources, and Putin controls more money than any individual in the history of human race. So it’s not late now just to start using this, this weapon effectively. If you want to help Ukraine, you don’t have to send boots on the ground. It’s bankrupt him. And America and the free world are just in power of doing it.”

Here’s How to Checkmate Putin | The Jerusalem Post | February 23, 2022

Ok, after years of warnings were ignored and hearing “Garry, you were right!” all damn day today, I’ll repeat what I said in 2014: Stop telling me I was right and listen to what I’m saying now. My recommendations follow: 1/5

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 24, 2022

Chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov, who is a veteran expert on the psyche of Russian President Vladimir Putin, delivered on Thursday a series of messages detailing how to isolate and ultimately defeat Putin.@BenWeinthal reports:https://t.co/lwgOtvxEpe

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) February 24, 2022

By Benjamin Weinthal

“Widely considered history’s all-time greatest chess player, Garry Kasparov, who is a veteran expert on the psyche of Russian President Vladimir Putin, delivered on Thursday a series of messages detailing how to isolate and ultimately defeat Putin on Twitter.

Kasparov’s commentary comes in response to Putin’s military invasion of Ukraine.

Kasparov wrote: “Since I answered so many of the questions I’m getting today on Putin and Ukraine, and more, in my book Winter Is Coming, I’m pinning it. I hoped it would be history by now, but thanks to Putin and free world apathy, it’s still a current event.

“Support Ukraine militarily, immediately, everything but boots on the ground. All weapons, intel, cyber. Bankrupt Putin’s war machine. Freeze & seize Russia’s finances & those of him and his gang. Kick Russia out of every intl & financial institution. PACE, Interpol, etc.,” he continued.

He added that the international community should “Recall all ambassadors from Russia. There is no point in talking. The new unified message is ‘stop or be isolated completely.’ -Ban all elements of Putin’s global propaganda machine. Turn them off, shut them down, send them home. Stop helping the dictator spread lies & hate.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a video address announcing the start of the military operation in eastern Ukraine, in Moscow, Russia, in a still image taken from video footage released February 24, 2022. (credit: Russian Pool/Reuters TV via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS)

Kasparov wrote further that there is a need to “Expose and act against Putin’s lackeys in the free world. If [Gerhard] Schröder and his ilk continue to work for Putin, bring charges. Ask the owners & advertisers of networks platforming Putin propagandists like [Tucker] Carlson why they allow it.”

Lastly, he wrote that the global community must “Russian oil & gas. Pressure OPEC, increase production, reopen Keystone. You can’t save the planet if you don’t save the people on it. -Acknowledge there will be costs, sacrifices. We waited too long, the price is high, but it will only get higher. It’s time to fight.”

He tweeted the five messages to his over-699,600 followers on Twitter. The tweets went viral straight away.

Kasparov also wrote: “Since I answered so many of the questions I’m getting today on Putin and Ukraine, and more, in my book Winter Is Coming, I’m pinning it. I hoped it would be history by now, but thanks to Putin and free world apathy, it’s still current events.”

The chess Grandmaster authored “Winter Is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must Be Stopped” in 2015, a year after Putin illegally seized Crimea from Ukraine.

Kasparov said on Wednesday that “Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014 ended any reasonable doubts as to his nature and threat. Any attempts to negotiate with Putin since then were corruption, cowardice, and cynicism. He should have been isolated instantly. Instead, here we are.”

Kasparov, a Russian dissident and human rights advocate,  has been one of the lone voices warning Western leaders over the decades not to appease Putin. He said on Thursday that “Western leaders rarely listened to Russian opposition leaders, and rarely acted when they did listen to us. Is it too much to ask for them to listen to Ukrainian leaders now?.”

When asked by one person on Twitter if Russians will revolt against Putin, Kasparov answered: “There is always a chance. Dictatorships are hard but brittle. If the blitzkrieg fails and Putin is faced with too many casualties to hide and more information gets through, the 1000s protesting today could become a million. But after 21 years it is hard.

“I wonder what the American tech giants could do to help get the truth to the Russian people. Most get news from state TV, unfortunately, but Apple, Facebook, Google, and the rest still have considerable reach. But courage, usually none.”

The chess grandmaster took Germany to task for its alleged appeasement of Putin: “Germany still refusing to send weapons to Ukraine after funding Putin’s war machine for years, or even to remove Russia from SWIFT. Neutrality between good and evil sides with evil, always.””

Garry Kasparov Interview with Pamela Brown | CNN Newsroom | February 19, 2022

“He {Putin} is betting that nothing will happen when he attacks…Why should he think otherwise?” Garry Kasparpov @Kasparov63 shares his thoughts tonight with @PamelaBrownCNN in this interview on #CNN: https://t.co/OjZ6xXUEs8

— WendyCNN (@Wendy_CNN) February 20, 2022

After warning so many White House admins blundering with Putin, I don’t care if they listen to me as long as they are listening to reason. If you make the same mistake twice you are either a fool or it’s not a mistake at all, it’s collusion & corruption. https://t.co/H4tAsyDvzS

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 20, 2022

Garry Kasparov: Putin is a Merchant of Doubt | The Bulwark | February 16, 2022

I’m afraid people will respond more to the school board part than about Putin’s invasion of Europe… https://t.co/nkFG3W2ei0

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 16, 2022

You can listen to this podcast at the Bulwark.

“With Biden in the White House, Putin thought this was the time to deliver the final blow to NATO. But he has been surprised by the West’s response to Ukraine. His game isn’t chess, it’s poker — and he may have overplayed his hand. Garry Kasparov joins Charlie Sykes on today’s podcast.”

The Rise of the Nazis Documentary | BBC | February 14, 2022

Hitler’s unmatched evil has long obscured Stalin’s machinations, from his partnership with Hitler and role in starting WWII to this more revisionist element. But the case is strong. Watch it here: https://t.co/Vy4FiRb5xq https://t.co/Rgd4gcx1UM

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 15, 2022

See the documentary at the BBC

The Dictator’s Gambit: What Putin is After on Ukraine | New York Daily News | February 12, 2022

My op-ed today on Putin’s war on Ukraine, how we got here, and a reminder to focus on the lives of the 44 million Ukrainians under attack for nothing more than Putin’s malevolence. https://t.co/aCJavMZCO0 https://t.co/dieDeKY94u

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) February 12, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can see the original at the New York Daily News.

By Garry Kasparov

“There is much in the news today about the “Ukraine crisis,” and while I’m glad to see that this major threat to the world order is finally worthy of attention, the naming gets it wrong. Ukraine doesn’t have a civil war, an insurgency or a separatist movement. Ukraine’s crisis is also Europe’s and America’s and now the world’s. It is a Russia crisis, or, more accurately, a Vladimir Putin crisis.

The United States and the rest of the world must get this right, because you cannot treat a disease if you start from the wrong diagnosis. You end up only treating the symptoms as they worsen, a downward spiral of reaction while the patient declines. What we need instead is a cure, a vaccine if you will.

President Biden and his predecessors have varied in rhetoric on Putin, but have had a pathetically similar track record when it comes to action, or inaction. Instead of addressing the bear in the room, Putin’s rogue mafia state, U.S. presidents and their peers in Europe prefer to fend off the worsening symptoms year after year.

Since I have been warning about the danger of allowing Putin’s cancer to spread for two decades, allow me a few “I told you sos” before getting to his latest appearance in the headlines. It was obvious to me that Putin would turn his aggression abroad as soon as he finished destroying Russian democracy and civil society. It’s the path of every dictator who runs out of scapegoats inside the country to blame for declining freedom and standard of living.

Putin’s invasions of neighboring Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 were attacks on their nascent democracies, which he correctly saw as bad examples for the people of Russia. From assassinations in Europe with nuclear isotopes and nerve agents to election interference backing Brexit, Trump and extremist candidates across Europe, Putin has not stuck with his supposed ex-Soviet sphere of influence. This is what I meant when I wrote in 2007 that “Putin is our problem to solve, yes, but if he is unopposed, he will soon be a regional problem and then everyone’s problem.”

That was back when the leaders of the free world were still happy to pose in photos with “President Putin,” a few years before acknowledging he no longer deserved that democratic title. After rewarding his invasion of Georgia with Obama’s reset in 2008, it took another six long years and his attack on Ukraine and illegal annexation of Crimea to rouse the world to the fact he had become “Dictator Putin” and that there was no turning back.

Then came Trump, whose envy of and admiration for authoritarians was possibly his only sincere and consistent sentiment. Biden’s victory was supposed to herald a return to more traditional American foreign policy values after four years of Trump trying to drag the U.S. down to the amoral quid pro quo level of autocratic regimes.

Instead, Biden repeated his former boss Obama’s attempts to unilaterally declare peace with the man Biden accurately called “a killer” in March 2021. Instead of forceful deterrence, he elevated Putin with an early in-person summit, never explaining what exactly the U.S. needed from Russia other than to stop its campaign of aggression. Then the Biden administration came out on Putin’s side in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal between Russia and Germany, a lifeline for Putin and an energy garotte around Europe’s neck.

Biden is supposedly more concerned about China, an actual superpower competitor, but Putin has proved again he will stamp about until he receives the attention he craves. Now he is preparing a blow that has forced Europe and the U.S. to cease their policy of “We don’t talk about Vladimir.” He has amassed a huge invasion force on all sides of Ukraine, a sovereign democratic nation, geographically the largest country in Europe (discounting Russia), parts of which have been occupied by Russia since it first invaded in 2014.

Ukraine also contains 44 million Ukrainians, who are often forgotten during all these talks, exactly as Putin intends. He wants to be seen as the big boss making threats and deals, while Ukraine, which he doesn’t even acknowledge as an independent country, is little more than a buffer, a poker chip on the geopolitical table.

That Russia has to resort to brute force to buy a place at the table indicates how far the country has fallen under Putin’s misrule. Russia has become a gas station with nukes, with record numbers of the young and educated population running for the exits. Its disastrous COVID-19 response, arguably the worst in the world — yes, even worse than America’s — has crushed the population from the other demographic end thanks to an understandable lack of trust in the government and a lack of concern for human life by the regime.

(It’s no small irony that Putin’s disinformation army spreads anti-vaccine propaganda in the U.S. and all over the world to stir up strife while being unable to convince Russians to get vaccinated.)

Putin’s threat isn’t just to Ukraine, although he still has his defenders abroad. He has even succeeded in uniting Tucker Carlson and Bernie Sanders, who both want Russia’s fictional security concerns to be addressed.

Instead of negotiating over what Putin wants, the free world must unite and fight hard to make sure he doesn’t get anything he wants. Do not wait to retaliate for his next invasion; go after him and his oligarch mafia hard now to show him that this time he won’t be able to evade, weaken and wait out sanctions.

Reduce Putin’s leverage by substituting the energy he uses for blackmail. Kick Putin’s mafia state out of the international institutions it uses and abuses to spread corruption. Seize the hundreds of billions in assets he and his cronies hide in the West and kick out the oligarchs and their families. They use their looted money to buy friends and influence in the West, but it also gives these havens, especially the United Kingdom, tremendous leverage — should they have the courage to use it.

Putin, always the gambler and bluffer, is betting they don’t. He’s been right so many times in the past, after all. This isn’t to say Putin is some master strategist. He’s no chess player, as I’m qualified to say with confidence. He reads people, not the board, and he won’t move until he’s sure he will be able to claim victory thanks to his feckless opponents folding their superior hands. Putin relies on Europe and the U.S., despite their overwhelming military, financial and legal advantages, continuing their policy of “do nothing until you can say there’s nothing you can do.”

That’s why Putin is still occupying Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, not to mention parts of Georgia. Instead of acting quickly to defend his victims, the West dithered and blathered until they could say it was impossible to change things on the ground. Putin uses force first, then switches to calls for diplomacy and negotiation to solidify his gains. You could call it “a piece, then peace,” a tactic of 20th-century dictators.

But eventually the dictator goes too far. His finely tuned animal instincts of self-preservation and danger become blunted by too much success and he oversteps, leading to catastrophe. You never know when that moment may come, which is why the concept of deterrence during the Cold War was based on standing up to every small advance, so that little conflicts did not turn into big wars. And it worked.

More Russian forces are arriving from all sides every day. Putin has even brandished the unthinkable specter of nuclear weapons, the ultimate ploy to convince everyone he’s mad, and to just give him whatever he wants. His success with these tactics is how we got to this perilous point.

But Putin is a KGB man, a bully and a spy who traffics in shadows and doubt, not open war. As he has in Syria, Moldova and so many other places, he wants influence and chaos, not an open conflict he may lose. For as he well knows, that is how dictatorships fall, by looking fallible, vulnerable.

If Putin plays it safe, he will look for deniability, to claim victory without risk to his power and status. The modern hybrid war model his Russia invented will expand, with cyber-attacks, disinformation, and the weaponization of refugees and energy supplies. Belarus may lose the little independence it had while eyes are elsewhere. That will also allow cowardly Western leaders to claim that their tough talk did the job while Ukraine still suffers under debilitating occupation. They will all declare victory from well-appointed tables and at well-attended press conferences, while the real losers are those living under Putin’s violence and repression.

Meanwhile, Russian gas and oil will continue to flow out and the rivers of cash will continue to swirl, filling the pockets of Putin’s oligarchs, their corrupt enablers in the West, and loading the guns of Russia’s security and military forces so they’ll be better prepared next time. And there will be a next time, and a next, until Putin goes too far — or until the world decides he has gone far enough.

Ukraine has already suffered a high price and anything is possible in the coming days. The only thing we can be sure of is that if we fail to stand up to Putin now, the price will keep going up.

Kasparov is chairman of the Renew Democracy Initiative.”