Garry Kasparov's Blog, page 22

‘It’s a Desperation’ Kasparov on the Navalny Sentencing | CNN | March 23, 2022

Watch the original video on YouTube.

Why I should have listened to Garry Kasparov about Putin | Financial Times | March 16, 2022

Credit to @gilliantett for writing this — and even more so to ⁦@Kasparov63⁩ for warning us, insistently and often alone, what we were up against in Putin’s Russia. @FT
https://t.co/o3FHa8vv3e

— Eliot A Cohen (@EliotACohen) March 17, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can see the original at the Financial Times.

By Gillian Tett

“A few years ago, the exalted Russian chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov came to dinner at my house in New York. It was a memorably intense evening. As we dug into our desserts, Kasparov regaled the assembled group of American policymakers and financiers with his views on Russia, a country he had fled in 2013 after challenging President Vladimir Putin. Kasparov warned that Putin was becoming increasingly authoritarian, isolated from the west and, as a result, likely to lash out at neighbours such as Ukraine in a dangerous way.

When the rest of the table rowdily dismissed his catastrophising, Kasparov became heated and, as the wine flowed, the conversation grew so animated that I started to worry that guests would walk out. So, despite sharing many of Kasparov’s fears, I decided to keep the peace by changing the subject to chess instead.

It was one of several occasions when I saw Kasparov correctly predict impending disaster only to be rebuffed. When we caught up by phone last week, he recalled that night, lamenting, “I was stunned by the unwillingness of people [in the west] to hear these warnings, because I grew up in the Soviet Union and knew all about the historical events of the 20th century. I knew that you could have stopped Hitler in 1935 and 1936 and 1937 and didn’t. But I had so much outright rejection of what I have been saying.”

Why were westerners so dismissive of Kasparov’s analysis? It is an important question given that many observers have reacted with complete shock to events in Ukraine. Among the biggest culprits have been the western elites with businesses in Russia. “Nobody I knew expected Putin would actually invade!” I was told last weekend by an expatriate former director of a Russian commodities company, who has now resigned. “We are all just in disbelief.”

Kasparov thinks the issue is a tendency to presume that everyone else shares your innate world view. The key here is western ideas of motive and rationality. Western culture is soaked in a capitalist ethos, underpinned by a widespread assumption that the profit motive rules supreme in terms of shaping political calculations, and that it’s “the economy, stupid” that drives decision-making in Russia and elsewhere. The collapse of the USSR reinforced this view, since it seemed that market principles and global business interests had triumphed.

As a consequence, western leaders and business groups generally turned a blind eye when Putin gave speeches that clearly demonstrated his nationalist, expansionist agenda and then annexed Crimea. Worse, they failed to appreciate how isolated Putin had become. Instead, as Russian oligarchs became a fixture of global business, Putin was seen as an extrapolation of this group. The idea that he might be so hell-bent on the destruction of democracy and the expansion of Russia that he would be willing to accept deep economic pain wasn’t taken seriously.

“It’s not like his actions were done in the darkness; it all happened in plain sight,” Kasparov tells me. “But after the end of the cold war there was some kind of allergy for any warnings about repetition of events. There was this assumption that Putin would never destroy business because it seemed irrational for him to do that.”

Given Kasparov’s acuity in predicting current events, I ask what he thinks might happen next. He believes Putin has “already lost” the battle, in the sense that his key objective of swiftly annexing Ukraine has failed. “I don’t think that a Ukrainian leader can accept anything less than the return of land [in Crimea]. This war will end with the Ukrainian flag on Sevastopol.”

But he points out that “what price the Ukrainians will pay for this is unclear”, since it would be foolish to expect Putin to back down quickly merely because of economic pain. The one tool that might force a rapid positive conclusion, he thinks, is Nato backing a “no-fly” zone or getting directly involved. “Putin only respects strength.”

Could a coup be another ending? Kasparov does not expect this right now, but pressure is building. “From history we know that one [of the] most important ingredients [for a coup] is geopolitical military defeat. That would send a powerful message to all layers of Russian society that the big boss has failed, and the mafia boss can afford many things except showing he is weak and lost.”

But a fear of looking weak could also cause Putin to lash out. Thus, argues Kasparov, one of the biggest questions now is “whether Russian officials would actually carry out the orders” if Putin tried to conduct a nuclear strike. He doubts it. “The moment one Russian warship fires a tactical nuclear missile, Nato will respond, and there is unlikely to be the same fanaticism for Putin as there was in Germany with Hitler. I don’t believe that we have kamikaze Russian pilots.”

Is this reassuring? Not necessarily: a stalemate threatens yet more suffering and destruction in Ukraine. Either way, as the tragedy unfolds, it is a powerful rebuke to the west on the perils of blinkered thinking and assuming that everyone looks at the world through the prism of a balance sheet. The next time an unpopular idea sparks a row at my dinner table, I will let it run. Sometimes, there are more important things at stake than being polite.

Follow Gillian on Twitter @gilliantett and email her at gillian.tett@ft.com

Follow @FTMag on Twitter to find out about our latest stories first”

АНТИВОЕННЫЙ КОМИТЕТ РОССИИ | Anti-War Committee of Russia | March 15, 2022

Putin’s war on Ukraine will either be the catalyst that revives the spirit & credibility of NATO or the end of the global order. As the Korean War shaped NATO after its birth under Harry Truman’s vision of containing Communism, this is democracy vs authoritarianism. 1/13

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 15, 2022

Some of #Russia‘s most recognizable public figures of the opposition have formed an Anti-war Committee.

The founders include @vkaramurza, Gary Kasparov @Kasparov63, economist Sergei Guriev @sguriev, journalist Yulia Latynina, etc. https://t.co/G02n2uD6sY

— Ilya Nuzov (@ilya_nuzov) March 15, 2022

You can read the original statement at the website of the Anti-War Committee of Russia.

“24 февраля 2022 года российское руководство во главе с Владимиром Путиным развязало агрессивную войну против Украины. В глазах всего мира это военное преступление совершено от лица всей страны, всех россиян.

Будучи гражданами Российской Федерации, мы против своей воли оказались ответственными за нарушение международного права, военное вторжение и массовую гибель людей. Чудовищность совершенного преступления не оставляет возможности промолчать или ограничиться пассивным несогласием.

Антивоенный комитет России создан для того, чтобы противостоять этой кровопролитной войне — вырабатывать общую позицию, помогать людям координировать свои усилия, решать огромное количество проблем, которые возникли из-за путинской агрессии.

Мы убеждены в абсолютной ценности человеческой жизни, в незыблемости прав и свобод личности. Режим Путина — угроза этим ценностям. Наша задача — обьединить все силы для сопротивления ей.

Эту войну начали не россияне, а обезумевший диктатор. И наш гражданский долг — сделать всё, чтобы её остановить.”

 

And a relevant article from Radio Free Europe.

“A group of well-known, exiled Russian public figures have created an Anti-War Committee to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin and other officials responsible after they unleashed a “fratricidal war” against Ukraine last week.

Former tycoon and opposition politician Mikhail Khodorkovsky announced the creation of the group, which also includes, among others, ex-world chess champion Garry Kasparov, opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza, exiled former lawmaker Dmitry Gudkov, and leading economist Sergei Guriyev.

In a statement late on February 27, the group called on the world community to “take a principal position towards violators of the international law,” adding that every person involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last week must be held responsible for their actions.

“Direct participants of the invasion, such as the generals and political leadership of Russia who outlined the plan of the invasion, must be recognized as war criminals and face punishment for their deeds,” the statement says.

The statement also says that “there is a clear difference between Russians, who have been dragged against their will into Putin’s adventurous policies, and those who willingly assist Putin’s regime in the ongoing fratricidal war.”

“Being Russian citizens…we bear moral responsibility for failing to prevent the war, for allowing the treacherous attack of the Russian troops on a neighboring country,” the statement says.

“The Anti-War Committee calls on all real patriots of Russia to consolidate against the aggressive dictatorship of Vladimir Putin despite any kind of political disputes, ideological differences, and personal sympathies or antipathies,” the statement adds.

Protests against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been held in Russian towns and cities since the first day of the attack, February 24. Almost 6,000 demonstrators have been detained since then.”

‘The West is at War with Russia’ | Garry Kasparov | Times Radio | March 14, 2022

You can watch the full interview on YouTube https://t.co/u5TD9I2GKc

— Times Radio (@TimesRadio) March 14, 2022

See the original interview on YouTube.

‘The West is at war with Russia’ | Garry Kasparov | Times Radio | March 14, 2022

You can watch the full interview on YouTube https://t.co/u5TD9I2GKc

— Times Radio (@TimesRadio) March 14, 2022

See the original interview on YouTube.

Russia Strikes Closer to NATO Member’s Border | AC360, CNN | March 13, 2022

Media: @Kasparov63 to @AC360: “There’s no way to avoid this confrontation. It’s not *if* @NATO confronts #Putin in the skies over #Ukraine or nearby or on the ground. It’s when. Better to start now and do it on our terms. There will be no way out if he attacks #NATO countries.” pic.twitter.com/3XeRGl3DMl

— Porter Anderson (@Porter_Anderson) March 14, 2022

“Ukrainians have plenty of courage, but not enough weapons. NATO has plenty of weapons, but not enough courage.”—@Kasparov63 nails it, right through the heart. https://t.co/l3gVmEFnyb

— Paula Chertok (@PaulaChertok) March 15, 2022

You can listen to the full interview at CNN Audio.

Appearance on CNN Newsroom | CNN | March 12, 2022

Media: @Kasparov63 to @biannagolodryga: “#Putin *is* at war with @NATO. Maybe @JoeBiden doesn’t know that. Maybe #European leaders pretend it’s not the case. But Putin is demonstrating to the world that he can kill civilians on an industrial scale and see no real consequences.” pic.twitter.com/3eUaSTS2q9

— Porter Anderson (@Porter_Anderson) March 12, 2022

Kasparov: Putin’s War is a ‘Campaign of Terror’ | MSNBC | March 12, 2022

“NATO has been built to defend democracy,” says @kasparov63. “What’s happening in Ukraine now, it’s not just a Ukrainian invasion anymore. I think that Putin is demonstrating that he can do whatever he wants…it’s a campaign of terror.” #Velshi https://t.co/p3v8l8jZl3

— Velshi on MSNBC (@VelshiMSNBC) March 12, 2022

You can see the original video at MSNBC.

Briefing with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister | RDI | March 12, 2022

Starting in 45 minutes. I hope you will join, and I hope the world will listen. https://t.co/NMk09Pfi0d https://t.co/o7RpLd4YL3

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) March 12, 2022

Visit the Renew Democracy Initiative to view the full recording.

“As Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine continues, RDI is ensuring that Americans and the global public understand that Putin’s actions are an assault on democracy itself. We are combating Russian propaganda, and offering support on spreading this message far and wide: that Ukraine is a sovereign democracy and the international community must hold Putin and his Russian oligarchs accountable for their war crimes.”

Winter is Here, Episode 2 | RDI | March 11, 2022

Is Putin playing poker or chess? Listen to Ep 2 of our podcast Winter is Here with chess grandmaster Garry @Kasparov63 and former poker world champion @AnnieDuke! https://t.co/aWO8iZTCAh

— Renew Democracy Initiative (@Renew_Democracy) March 11, 2022

You can listen to the podcast at the Renew Democracy Initiative.

“On this episode of Winter is Here, we welcome former poker world champion and decision scientist Annie Duke. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has all of us wondering how you can make good decisions when the stakes are astronomical. We dive into the psychology of decision making with lessons that apply as much to daily life as to geopolitics. And with a poker world champion and chess grandmaster on the podcast, we had to ask—is Putin playing poker or chess?

Also released today is this week’s Democracy Brief on the unlikely coalition forming to blame the United States for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Read the full piece here.

Last, we want to offer you a final reminder to sign up for our Briefing with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba happening live Tomorrow at 11am ET! Foreign Minister Kuleba will almost certainly be joined by soldiers who can offer testimony directly from the frontlines. Also on the panel will be Garry Kasparov, Alexander Vindman, Céline Boustani, and Uriel Epshtein. Please sign up here for this truly unique opportunity.”