Garry Kasparov's Blog, page 19

Garry Kasparov Speaking to the EU-US Delegation | April 27, 2022

My EU colleagues and I were glad to host @Kasparov63 for a deep discussion on Putin’s war. “Chess has known rules & unknown outcomes. Putin doesn’t like rules. He’s not a chess player, he’s a poker player. He hopes to bluff himself into winning with a weak hand. He must fail.” pic.twitter.com/eE7OqqIizz

— Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis (@EUAmbUS) April 27, 2022

Thank you for hosting me, Ambassador. Time for Europe to stop playing any games with Putin! https://t.co/Puw8TucITc

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) April 28, 2022

Great EU-discussion with former World Chess Champion @Kasparov63: “This whole situation has become very black or white – Putin’s aggression has given us moral clarity. And like in a chess championship, there cannot be a draw. Either Putin loses, or the West does. It’s either or.” pic.twitter.com/lMvfZ5QYrW

— Martin Weiss (@martinoweiss) April 27, 2022

Why the West Keeps Folding to Putin | CNN | April 26, 2022

From last night on CNN. Putin will continue to escalate and bluff, because it’s the only way someone with the weaker hand can win. For once, the West must fight instead of fold. https://t.co/RDREzB1kFz

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) April 27, 2022

Media: @Kasparov63 to @wolfblitzer: “It’s a shame for the @UN secretary-general @antonioguterres to visit #Putin in #Russia at a time when Russia is violating every chapter in the #UnitedNations. What’s the point of having this conversation and giving Putin some credibility?” pic.twitter.com/BBCxBGlmML

— Porter Anderson (@Porter_Anderson) April 26, 2022

Opinion: Utah Senate race could hold the key to breaking political polarization | CNN Opinion | April 26, 2022

We must inject moderation & sanity into our political discourse. The only way to handle growing ideological radicalism on either side is to employ creative approaches to build a true centrist coalition. Read @UrielEpshtein & @Kasparov63 in @CNNOpinion https://t.co/NrwgubKH37

— Renew Democracy Initiative (@Renew_Democracy) April 27, 2022

Excellent piece by @Kasparov63 & @UrielEpshtein on countering political extremists in America. They believe – and I agree – that the coalition of patriotic Democrats, Republicans and independents that we’re building in Utah is critical. https://t.co/63ngYey4pE

— Evan McMullin (@EvanMcMullin) April 27, 2022

By Garry Kasparov and Uriel Epshtein

“(CNN) Americans are extremely polarized, and the structure of our elections isn’t helping. In countless states, Democrats or Republicans enjoy such a large majority that the only truly competitive race is each party’s primary.

In these states, general elections are coronations, not contests — and that’s a problem. Only members of the majority party get a real say in choosing their representative, which excludes a vast portion of the electorate and leads to more radical candidates.Structural reforms like ranked choice voting and open primaries are certainly the best ways to address this, but they can take years to implement and neither party is especially keen on losing its advantage where it exists. The problem is urgent and requires us to think creatively and offer realistic solutions that could be implemented quickly.Enter Utah, where an interesting experiment is playing out that could serve as a model for how a moderate with broad appeal who is normally disadvantaged by partisan primaries can challenge a more radical candidate otherwise bound for victory.The plan goes like this. Republican Sen. Mike Lee is up for reelection in Utah, where he would almost certainly win against a Democrat. Utah Democrats, who have failed to get a US Senate candidate elected since 1970, have declined to nominate a candidate this time around and instead thrown their support behind the politically moderate — and electorally viable — former Republican Evan McMullin, who is now running as an independent.In a lot of ways, McMullin is a traditional conservative. But, he is willing to push back against the pro-Trump, pro-Putin wing of the party, and for a lot of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans, he would be a welcome change from Lee.Of course, this strategy carries risks. The minority party would have to compromise on a number of its policy priorities and could still end up losing. But, as in chess, sometimes you have to take a risk and make a sacrifice in order to create a unique winning combination. And ultimately, winning on even a few priorities is better than losing in the name of ideological purity.There’s a certain irony to the fact that the key to breaking our political duopoly and returning some modicum of sanity to our politics could actually come from heavily blue or red states.In states where elections are even somewhat competitive, it’s unlikely that either party would agree to back down from advancing their own candidate. But in areas where the minority party has next to no chance of winning, they could work with a more moderate candidate or defector from the majority party, rather than waging a quixotic campaign that would offer voters some semblance of ideological and emotional validation without any real-world impact.If this moderate candidate could siphon off 25-30% of the vote from the majority party and win the backing of most of the minority party, this would make the general election genuinely competitive. If there’s anything the last six years have shown us, it’s that the relevant political divide is no longer left vs. right — it’s between those who want to improve upon our existing system and those who want to tear it down for any number of ideological reasons. This opens up a number of interesting pathways for cooperation between independents and moderate members of both parties.Ultimately, structural reform is the only true long-term solution to the radicalism that has emerged from our partisan primaries. Former CEO turned electoral reform advocate Katherine Gehl has put forth a few particularly compelling ideas at the Institute for Political Innovation, including final-five voting, a system that gets rid of closed primaries and allows voters to rank their top five candidates from either party in order of preference. We believe this approach would not only improve upon the existing primary system, but also incentivize elected officials to prioritize governing over grandstanding.In the meantime, creative campaigns like McMullin’s could offer the moderation and broadly appealing candidates our democracy needs. Utah Democrats have clearly recognized the opportunities a cross-partisan coalition could represent.Injecting moderation and sanity into our political discourse is one of the key goals our organization, the Renew Democracy Initiative, was founded to achieve. We believe that the only way to handle growing ideological radicalism on either side is to employ creative approaches to build a true centrist coalition. This is critical to defending the pillars of our democracy and fighting back against further political polarization. If McMullin can prove the efficacy of this strategy in Utah, it could be a way to break our nation’s politicized gridlock.”

Garry Kasparov on Putin’s Intentions | India Economic Conclave 2022 | April 22, 2022

India may try to sit on the fence w Russia, but won’t find it so easy with China. Ideal moment to be a counterweight for democracy & against aggression, to secure and reassure allies for the future. https://t.co/oNVnGz6hnb

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) April 22, 2022

#EXCLUSIVE | “Putin can’t afford to look like a loser…he will use every resource to win the war…”, says @Kasparov63#IndiaEconomicConclave | @Anandmk pic.twitter.com/inf6jyDXEw

— TIMES NOW (@TimesNow) April 24, 2022

Winter is Here, ft. UK Foreign Affairs Chair Tom Tugendhat | RDI | April 22, 2022

This week #WinterisHere hops the pond & welcomes UK Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman @TomTugendhat for a convo w/ @Kasparov63 & @UrielEpshtein to discuss the status quo in Ukraine and the role of the Free World. Spoiler: Germany should be doing more! https://t.co/J9xCSlPNWn

— Renew Democracy Initiative (@Renew_Democracy) April 22, 2022

Speaking to @Kasparov63 and @UrielEpshtein of @Renew_Democracy about Ukraine and Russia .

You can hear our predictions and analysis herehttps://t.co/O0TH4tDePX

— Tom Tugendhat (@TomTugendhat) April 22, 2022

The Seeds of Invasion – Experts on Where it All Began | Kyiv Post | April 21, 2022

My interview with Chess Grandmaster and famed human rights defender @Kasparov63, former Security Service of Ukraine Director @Nalyvai_V, and other experts, as to the origins of Putin’s 2022 invasion of #Ukraine. @KyivPost. Hint: Appeasement never works. https://t.co/eNrdqSngdx

— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) April 21, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can read the original at the Kyiv Post.

By Jason Jay Smart

“Experts hold differing views on Vladimir Putin’s path to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. But they largely agree the West’s lack of action following the 2014 attack contributed to Putin’s decision.

There is no consensus on the precise pathway and trigger-point for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to again invade Ukraine on Feb. 24. But many experts agree that years of the West avoiding confrontation with the Kremlin played an important role in Moscow’s misconception that the world would stand idly by if Ukraine were attacked again.

In an interview with the Kyiv Post, international chess champion and renowned human rights defender, Garry Kasparov, asserted: “I think [Putin] did what every dictator did before him in history – he grabbed everything he could, then looked around to see what was next.”

Kasparov added: “Putin always wanted to destroy Ukraine, but he didn’t have a plan. Why not? Because he grabbed a piece of land then looked around, smelled the air and took ever-more confident steps.”

Kasparov is firmly of the view that the reluctance of Western leaders to confront Moscow has enabled Putin to revel in an established history of impunity. This in turn became a key driver for Putin’s Ukrainian misadventure.

“He got away with Grozny [in Chechnya], Gori, and Aleppo [in Syria], and he believes the same about Mariupol,” said Kasparov.

Having spent years calling on the West to take stronger and more decisive action against Moscow’s “criminal regime,” Kasparov is now pushing leaders in Europe and the U.S. to learn from their earlier misjudgments of Putin’s nature and to finally take the drastic measures needed to cripple his ability to wage war.

According to Kasparov, “the West, following the occupation of the Donbas and Crimea, erred gravely by not stopping Putin in his tracks but rather allowing the Russian economy to continue prospering.”

Former Lithuanian intelligence chief and diplomat Darius Jurgelevičius views Putin’s move to take Ukraine as part of a more elongated timeline which stems from the West’s failure to react to Putin’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. Jurgelevičius points out that “Putin essentially tested the water by invading Georgia and saw that, despite what the Georgians had expected, the West did not swoop in to save them. Instead, Georgia lost 20 percent of its territory.”

“In August 2008, the West made a critical error in not reproaching Putin and making clear to him that his violations of international law would be met with severe consequences. Instead of punishing Moscow, the West sought to ‘de-escalate’ by doing as little as possible that might further upset Putin,” says Jurgelevičius.

Lessons from history appear not to have been learned, with Jurgelevičius adding that “the West repeated its errors by not reacting with force to Putin’s 2014 invasion and occupation of Ukraine. This not only emboldened Putin but acted as a ‘green light’ to the Kremlin.”

Jurgelevičius warns that this time, the West must not back down and must box Russia’s dictator into a corner from which he cannot attempt another illegal foreign conquest.

Steve Nix, a lawyer who leads the Eurasia division of the International Republican Institute (IRI), says he had believed that Putin was planning to avenge his 2014 losses in Ukraine long before the invasion was launched but that the real signal of Russia’s war-hungry intentions emerged in the Russian dictator’s July 2021 diatribe, formally titled on the Kremlin’s website as “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.”

In this essay, Putin enunciated his view that: “Ukraine does not exist. It does not exist as a state. Thus, it does not deserve to exist as a sovereign independent country. Ukraine is actually, and should be, a part of Russia.”

Nix agrees that the West should have seen the “red flags” before the invasion started and that too many leaders feared “inflaming the situation” or “angering Putin”. In his view, they failed to realize how their passivity would be seen through the Kremlins’ eyes as an unwillingness to confront Russia. This, in turn, convinced Putin that attacking Ukraine would be met with a “slap on the wrist” before being forgotten by world leaders.

News reports immediately following the Feb. 24 invasion, when many countries began levying sanctions against Russia, indicate that Putin was surprised by the West’s resolve – something that his inner-circle had not anticipated. The hypothesis that Putin had not expected such a robust reaction is supported by evidence that Putin and his team did not take preventative actions, such as stockpiling internationally made machine parts and removing assets in foreign banks, in preparation for the West’s crushing sanctions.

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament who twice headed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), saw the signs of Russia’s nefarious plans for Ukraine more than a decade ago. “I repeatedly warned the Ukrainian leadership of the risk and threats posed by the continued presence of Russian troops and Navy in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea,” says Nalyvaichenko.

He adds: “In 2009, during my first chairmanship of the [SBU], I initiated the termination of Ukraine’s bilateral agreement with the Russian Navy. Prior to that, Ukraine had an agreement to host Russian [military] bases and allowed the [Federal Security Service] to operate within Crimea.”

Moscow’s desire to choke off Ukraine’s access to the sea has been part of Russia’s plans for years, according to retired SBU Major General Vasil Vovk. Citing his interviews from 2021, Vovk notes: “You can be sure we’ll have a real threat in a year or two from Russian troops invading exactly these eight regions – Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Odesa. We will be left without seas.”

However, there are hopes that the world will now pay greater attention to the threat that Moscow poses. Nalyvaichenko sees the U.S. and Europe as a united force in opposing Russia’s aggression, but that more is needed: “It’s high time for the West to be closing the skies over Ukraine so we can defend our country and our people. We are ready to fight Putin and we will win. We have no choice but victory. We can see now that Russia’s plans for Ukraine are nothing short of genocide.”

Putin’s Next Move in Ukraine | The Lead, CNN | April 19, 2022

“He sees Ukraine as an obstacle to his geopolitical agenda.”

Putin critic @Kasparov63 talks to CNN’s @jaketapper about what Putin’s next move in Ukraine may be, and what he sees as Putin’s potential downfall. pic.twitter.com/oCYY0eqEGb

— CNN (@CNN) April 19, 2022

Garry Kasparov Predicts How Putin’s Inner Circle Could Oust Him Over Ukraine | Huffington Post | April 19, 2022

The war in Ukraine is fast and deadly. Ukraine needs every weapon, now. But the battle to bring real peace is in Russia, where for the first time Putin’s cronies & ordinary citizens will finally have to choose between a normal life and Putin. https://t.co/bSbec6ltyJ

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) April 19, 2022

This article is a reprint. You can see the original at the Huffington Post.

By Lee Moran

“Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov on Monday explained what may lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin eventually being ousted by his inner circle in a “palace coup.”

CNN’s Paula Reid asked the longtime Putin critic and political activist if he expected to see more anti-Kremlin sentiment building within Russia as its military invasion of Ukraine continues to falter.

“Eventually, yes,” replied Kasparov, a chess grandmaster for the Soviet Union and Russia.

Kasparov then laid out “the order of moves that cannot be reversed.”

“First, the Russian public and Russian elite, they have to recognize the war is lost,” he said. “The bad news coming from Ukraine will inspire more people to rise because economic hardship will increase.”

“So, military defeat in Ukraine, social-economic revolt and then you will have conditions, the right conditions for a palace coup,” Kasparov predicted. “Because many of Putin’s inner circle will be looking for a scapegoat and it’s always a dictator who should be blamed for all the failures.”

Putin knows losing the war on Ukraine “is not an option for him,” said Kasparov.

“It’s a matter of political survival and in many cases … of physical survival,” he added. “That’s why he has to pretend he is winning the war.”

Longtime Putin critic explains what has to happen for Putin’s inner circle to turn on him | CNN | April 17, 2022

Longtime Putin critic @Kasparov63 tells @PaulaReidCNN what has to happen for Putin’s inner circle to turn against him. Watch here: https://t.co/ILtNb3vpfQ

— CNN (@CNN) April 17, 2022

Watch the original video at CNN.

Putin’s Campaign of Terror in Ukraine | Velshi on MSNBC | April 16, 2022

Russia calls its war on Ukraine a “special military operation” but it’s really “a campaign of terror,” says @Kasparov63. He adds that the world must understand that “as long as Putin stays in power, there will be no peace in Ukraine.” #Velshi pic.twitter.com/B0rC1elmqO

— Velshi on MSNBC (@VelshiMSNBC) April 16, 2022