Jamie Greening's Blog, page 5

Did Greenbean Make A Mistake?

After all, he is fallible and endearingly human.

I am referring to a specific mistake that I may have made, or did I?

I freely admit I wasn’t thinking this complexly in the moment, although it was premeditated in that I planned to say it. My mistakes often flow from unplanned moments. But this was planned.

Here is the setup: I preached this morning (17 March 2024) from the Gospel of Luke 23:26-31. I am very impressed and stirred in my soul by Jesus’ last sermon here on the way out of Jerusalem in which he turns to the weeping and crying people following him and says, ‘Don’t weep for me weep for yourselves . . .’ and continues on with a warning about the coming hardships upon them. I made a brilliant, if I do say so myself, homiletical pivot at that moment to a very contemporary application.

But that wasn’t the possible moment of mistake.

In highlighting Jesus’ sermon, I was attempting to show how Jesus pulled himself together to audibilize this lengthy, poetic, prophetic, and meaningful sermon and what I was trying to communicate was how hard it would have been for Jesus to even speak, especially to speak loud enough to be heard in this chaotic moment. He had been beaten, he was dehydrated, his face was swollen, and his eyes bloodied. Probably his nose was dislocated. Hold that thought for a moment: a dislocated nose given the beating he’d endured would have been very likely. To quote the great prophet on his visage:

Just as there were many who were astonished at him–so marred was his appearance, beyond human semblance, and his form. beyond that of mortals.

Isaiah 52:14

But none of that was the possible mistake.

What I said in the sermon, and I think I said it twice, was that his ‘jaw was broken.’ The point I was trying to emphasize was the beating he’d taken and the way it would have been hard, painful, almost impossible, for him to even open his mouth at this point let alone speak with any kind of enunciation and projection.

Ah, but here is the thing. Someone in our congregation, a very bright soul, pointed out to me that the Bible is clear on Jesus and his bones. Again, to quote the importance of this to the Passover meal:

They shall leave none of it until morning, nor break a bone of it; according to all the statute of the passover they shall keep it.

Numbers 9:12

Christ is our Passover. It is important his bones not be broken. Again we can quote the Psalms:

He keeps all their bones; not one of them will be broken.

Psalm 34:20

The Fourth Gospel takes it further and draws the line for us by saying it was important his bones were not broken:

These things occurred so that the scripture might be fulfilled, ‘None of his bones shall be broken.’

John 19:36

So, was I wrong when I said that Jesus’ jaw was broken? Of course, this was just me painting the scene, I don’t know anything for definite except he was beaten very badly and I can only imagine the pain he was in (Oh the thought that he bore that pain for me! Thank you, Lord).

When I said his jaw was broken, what I had in my mind was more of a dislocation that is common from being punched and beaten about the head rather than an actual fracture of the jawbone. Now, I am not a medical doctor and the terminology is way beyond my field of expertise, but I think I can be right and still be wrong at the same time on this issue.

First, I was wrong to even use the word break in context with a possible bone of Jesus. It is sloppy and if could go back in time I would avoid that description and use other language to describe the labored breathing, the pain in his face, and the difficult he would have had in speaking. So that is where I was wrong. I completely affirm the biblical teaching and importance that his bones were not broken. To insinuate otherwise is to make mistake.

But, in our common vernacular a broken jaw is often, I think, used to describe a dislocated jaw, like a dislocated nose (see above) where things just aren’t where they are supposed to be. It could be very possible, I think, and still fulfill scriptural promises, that the Lord had a dislocated jaw but his bones were whole.

The point of the broken bones, though, isn’t about the face. It is about the forthcoming action of the Roman soldiers who come to break the bone of Jesus’ legs so he will hurry up and die already. Crucifixion could last days, and they wanted the three executed men good and dead before Sabbath. The breaking of bones hastens that — but the Bible clearly demonstrates Jesus giving up his spirit early, thus none of his bones were broken because he gave his life, no one took it. The prophetic words of the Old Testament are demonstrating that from hundreds of years earlier.

Actually, the real point, is I am in awe of the pain the Lord endured, what love!

2024 Oscar Predictions — Not That I’m Very Good At It

When I say not very good at it, I mean, I don’t tend to just pick the favorites. I tend to pick the ones I think should win or I try to think about the Oscar voters. The favorites are based on media, and the media have different criteria than actual movie people do. Alright, well, here we go with all the major categories, and we will take these in the order as listed on Oscar’s website. I will try to be brief.

Leading Actor — It is a race between Wright and Giamatti, and I am going with Giamatti.

Supporting Actor — Iron Man — and it is not even close.

Lead Actress — This is the most competitive category of the evening. With the exception of Stone, they all deserve it. I want Mulligan to win but not for this, to make up for the fact she should have won for Promise Young Woman. That movie did not get its due. But, I think Gladstone wins this one and I will not be mad.

Supporting Actress — Emily Blunt would be a worthy winner, but I think it goes to Ferrera. That speech!

Animated Feature Film — We always watch all of these, escape this year. The Boy and the Heron and Robot Dreams are unavailable to us in any format or location. So, given that, I think Spiderman wins, although Elemental was very, very good.

Cinematography — The Holdovers should have had a nomination here. The winner is Oppenheimer.

Costume Design — I fatigue of period pieces dominating this category, so I am going with Barbie.

Directing — Jonathan Glazer. Scorsese might pull it out, but I think Glazer deserves it. Zone of Interest was brilliant.

Documentary Feature Film — This is a two film race between Eternal Memory and 20 Days in Mariupol. You should watch both of them. I think Mariupol wins.

Film Editing — Anatomy of a Fall.

International Feature Film — The rule is, if you’re nominated for Best Picture and are in the International Category, you win the International, so that means the Oscar goes to Zone of Interest. However, Society of the Snow is very good and gut wrenching.

Makeup and Hair — I want Golda to win, because I liked that movie and the way they captured the early 1970s was glorious. The winner, though, will be Oppenheimer.

Original Score — American Fiction. That is such a delightful album you can put it on and listen to it while cooking or cleaning or reading a book. I would not be mad, though, if John Williams won because — go listen to it — that Indy soundtrack is probably the only one of these that actually sounds like it belongs to a movie.

Original Song — What Was I Made For — Billie Eilish gets her second Oscar.

Best Picture — For a more thorough discussion of this one, click here. The winner is Barbie.

Production Design — I’m gonna go with Killers of the Flower Moon. This is where they will be awarded for the care they took with the subject matter and the historicity of the issue.

Sound — The easy pick would be Oppenheimer but the constant gunshots, shouting, and background chaos of Zone of Interest gives it the award.

Visual — Guardians of the Galaxy Party 3. Not only that, this was also a top five Marvel movie. I am sick of Marvel, and I still loved this one.

Adapted Screenplay — Barbie.

Original Screenplay — Anatomy of a Fall.

And there you have it. If I am 50% right, I will consider it to have been a good night. The only ones that are locks, as far as I am concerned, is Robert Downey, Jr., Billie Eilish, Zone for International Film, and Guardians for Visuals.

Possible Surprises — Nyad. I know very few people watched it and it hasn’t had a lot of hype, but the age and performance of Benning and Foster have a ‘Nomad’ feel, and Oscar could upset the applecart a bit by picking the old timers. Another possible surprise motif would be one film running the table on all the categories, which hasn’t really happened in a while. If that happens, look for it to be Zone of Interest.

We will find out Sunday evening.

Oscar Best Picture 2024: Reviews, Predictions, and Analysis

There are ten films nominated for best picture by the Academy Awards. I can make an argument for seven of them to possibly win.

But before I give you my best guess, let me give a brief review of all ten. I’ll take them in order of their listing (alphabetical) on the Oscar website so you know I’m not playing favorites.

American Fiction
I am dispositioned to love this film from the beginning because the main character is a writer. The set up is that the lead, Monk, is an academic, well-learned man who finds himself prey to the vulgarities of the publishing industry which demands exploitation. I can relate. The turn, though, is that this movie is just as much about family and relationships as anything else. There is a great deal of filthy language in this movie, but Jeffrey Wright is fantastic! If you’re a thoughtful grownup, you’ll like the film even if, I think, they botched the ending.

Anatomy of a Fall
Really, really strong ending, but this movie takes about forty-five minutes before you’re invested. It starts slowly, like a Hyundai on a NASCAR track slow. The strength is the acting and the dynamic screenplay. The way it is filmed seems at time to almost be a documentary.

Barbie
This is the most religious movie I’ve seen in years. Barbie meets her maker, is born again, and discovers her incarnational self. Oh, and there is a lot of social commentary on male/female relationships and gender roles. I enjoyed this movie far more than I dreamed I might. For all the conversation about Margot Robbie snubs, the ones who make the movie for me are America Ferrera and Michael Cera.

The Holdovers
Again, a movie I am predisposition to like from before it ever starts. The triumvirate set up is strong, the growth pattern is also strong, and the performances are superlative. I also love the cinematography here in that the setting is the 1970s and it looks like it was filmed in the 1970s in all the right ways. Does it feel a little cliche at points. Absolutely. Is the ending rather predictable. Yes, of course. Could it be described as a poor man’s Dead Poet’s Society. Most definitely. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a great movie.

Killers of the Flower Moon
The detail and patience in this film is what makes it so great. Time and energy was taken to get the people, the language, the moments, and the narrative right rather than rushing to make it look okay. I appreciate the respect given to the Osage people and their involvement in production. I also love they resisted the urge and ease of making this an FBI movie or law enforcement film. Bravo. And Lily Gladstone! Amazing.

Maestro
To say I was disappointed in this film is an understatement. I had such high expectations for it. It is too long, too melodramatic, and too pretentious. The only bright spot for me is Carey Mulligan, who is truly one of the greats of our time.

Oppenheimer
This movie is beautiful to watch, even with all the destructive powers to behold. The problem is the film loses focus at times and doesn’t know how to portray the central figure – is he a hero or a villain or a tortured soul or all? Emily Blunt carries this movie — and I mean carries this movie particularly the last third. Robert Downey, Jr. was fantastic against type.

Past Lives
The most boring movie I’ve seen in a long time. About half of it is watching people FaceTime each other, like we didn’t get enough of that during the pandemic. Nothing here of note.

Poor Things
I loathe this movie. Hate it. It is grotesque, mean, and just awful. My review is that the movie is really only a mash-up of Frankenstein, The Man with Two Brains, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and what I imagine would have been the fictional movie Rochelle Rochelle from Seinfeld fame. This movie should not be celebrated, it should be shunned not just for lack of real art, but also because of the awful subtext of pedophilia and incest through the entire movie. The gag reflex is real for this butchery. No one should ever watch it. Save yourself. Run. Many have praised Emma Stone, but I’m telling you, her non-sex scenes reminded me of warm up exercises for first year theater students. Seriously. Awful.

Zone of Interest
This movie is so excellently done that no review can really do it justice. It is the opposite end of the string of something like Jojo Rabbit. In Rabbit, the whole bit is a farce, but here we have the farce from history which is the alternate reality that Nazi’s let themselves live in while pretending, in a way, that the holocaust wasn’t happening literally right outside their yard. The juxtaposition of the house and its garden and Auschwitz will stay with me for a long time, as will the infrared of the little girl — almost as much as the girl in red in Schindler’s List, but for different reasons. And then the whiplash ending. Wow. Just wow.

Analysis of Winners and Themes
Let’s do themes first, because that is not long or drawn out this year for it is simple: the theme is the creative and brilliant genius. American Fiction, Anatomy, Holdovers, and Past Lives all feature writers or aspirational writers. Oppenheimer and Barbie are about creators of another sort but none the less brilliant creation is on display. So too, is Maestro and even the abysmal Poor Things. Zone of Interest, in its own focuses on the creative power of destruction. The central figure, Höss, is portrayed as brilliant in the banality of his evil.

Now, for winners. The three that can’t win are Maestro, Poor Things, and Past Lives. Those are out. Most people say Oppenheimer is the favorite, but I don’t think so. I have hard time imagining hippy dippy Hollywood giving the Oscar to a movie about the inventor of the atomic bomb. Something in their gut goes against it, I think. I believe the true front runner is Barbie. I say better than 40% chance on Barbie. I know that Gerwig didn’t get a nomination for director and Robbie got snubbed, but this feels like an Argo kind of year in which the complete movie wins rather than superlative pieces and parts.

Anatomy, American Fiction, and Zone of Interest have a punchers chance. Of those three, I think Zone of Interest is the most likely candidate for an upset. Holder’s only has a Hail Marry kind of chance for winning best picture, yet, if it wins, I will not be anger or upset. However, if Poor Things wins, I will be more angry than I was about the abomination of Birdman.

Be on the look out as I will have a fuller list of predictions and thoughts tomorrow. For now, if you only have time to watch one or two movies before the Oscars and you haven’t seen them all, watch Barbie and Zone of Interest because of their important cultural and historical context. After that, I’d go with American Fiction and The Holdovers, if you have a little more time.

Joe Shaw and Greenbean Walk Into A . . .

Primary.

Or a trap.

Or a primary trap.

If you must know, the Kool-Aid I drank last night was cherry red. Mrs. Greenbean enjoyed the orange.

I asked my friend, Joe Shaw, to respond to the same five questions I am addressing here. I’ve cut-n-pasted his reply below for easy reading, but you should go read his introduction — it is so much better than mine. Click here to be amazed!

Essentially, we are engage in a post-mortem of the Super-Tuesday from yesterday. Joe is a super-smart, highly analytical man with high integrity. And he is funny and clever. A wonderful set of characteristics. So here we go.

How big of a night was it for MAGA?

            HUGE! The crushing defeat of Nikki Haley, by 80-20 margins in many of the states indicates the entirety of the GOP is MAGA – the assimilation is complete. Any resistance to the unique brand of populism and confidence that goes with MAGA has either been beaten into submission or quietly left out the back door. Where it goes from now I don’t know, but I think we can safely now stop calling it the GOP and just call it MAGA. 

            In Texas, where I live, this MAGA victory was even more pronounced. Ken Paxton and Greg Abott, MAGA Men, effectively purged, and I mean purged, in the primary process all Republicans who opposed them. It was a bloodletting, politically speaking that included by the house GOP, forced the speaker into a runoff, and took out three judges, that’s right, judges!

            MAGA should pop the champagne today and toast their wins and celebrate the comlete destruction of their republican enemies. 

Joe Shaw says:

I guess that depends on what you mean by MAGA. For some, MAGA is synonymous with white supremacy, racism, sexism, and all the other bad -isms you can imagine. For others, MAGA is simply “the Trump faction of the Republican Party.” For others, still, it’s something like “an American, nationalistic approach to conservatism, currently spearheaded by Donald Trump. 

There are almost as many definitions for MAGA as there are for genders now, except that people don’t ask what your MAGA pronouns are when you speak it. They just make decisions about your moral turpitude based on THEIR interpretation about what MAGA means, and respond accordingly. Much like the Fashion industry, current TikTok trends, and anything Kanye West has tweeted in the last year or so, it’s all very confusing and likely has no basis in Reality. 

So, when I think about whether this was a Big Win for MAGA, I have to think about what it means for Trump in this election, what it means for the Republican Party and conservatism overall. 

For Trump, this was an obvious huge win. It was a big, massive, but, but it was an expected, massive win. The only place Nikki Haley won was Vermont, which is not exactly a Republican stronghold. You have to be somewhere left of Stalin to carry that state in the general election, so there’s a good chance this was more “Socialists Behaving Badly,” than an actual groundswell for a Trump alternative. 

For the Republican Party, it means they’ve clearly and decisively selected Trump as the standard bearer, but I don’t think it means they’ve solidified Trumpism as the prevailing party philosophy. I haven’t seen a lot of articles from Republicans or conservatives discussing what Trump’s policies mean for America post-election and into the future. It’s mainly just “Trump can beat Biden! Yay Trump!” And I think this stems from a pre-2016 election mantra I heard often. “We need to elect Trump so we can keep Hillary out of office and define who will be on the SCOTUS bench,” people said. No one was saying “Trump’s economic and foreign affairs acumen is sublime.” Whatever happens from here on out, this is Trump’s last rodeo. The Republican Party specifically and Conservatism in general need to work out their respective identities. Trump is many things, but he is not an ideological leader. The Republicans haven’t had that since Reagan, and it’s not been morning in America for a long time.  

At present, the Republican Party is whatever Trump says it is. Once Trump is gone, they will need to figure out who they are again. 

What is the future of Nikki Haley?

            I originally believed she would stay in, but I also originally believed she would hold firm at about 40% of the GOP vote. Her defeat was so thorough I think she needs to say thanks, so long, farewell, and bow out. Even if something did come up legally or medically with Trump, the delegates are all MAGA and they would never choose Haley in a brokered convention. 

            The question is, does she leave with a warning as in, ‘I think you’ve made a grave mistake’ or does she leave with an endorsement. I personally can’t see her endorsing someone she spoken about so harshly, however, I present to you Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio as evidence politicians have no spines. 

            I suspect her political career is over.

Joe Shaw says:

First off: props to Haley for sticking around so long. She had the only true and possible path to victory out of any of the candidates. If the Republicans are going to start figuring out who they are post-Trump, they need a diverse set of ideologies to choose from. Haley was that for this election cycle. Unfortunately for Haley, all she succeeded in was proving that, in response to the question of whatever the Republicans will become, “Not Nikki Haley” seems to be the first and easiest answer. 

If there can be unity between her supporters and Trump’s supporters, Trump might gain some ground with moderates, but I don’t see him going that way. One of the biggest criticisms of Trump I’ve seen from conservatives is that he wasn’t strong enough in response to Fauci with COVID and with members of his administration that undermined his efforts. To reach toward the middle with a selection fo Haley for VP would be to make that same mistake, at least in the eyes of his most rabid supporters. 

I expect Haley to drop out of the race and become an answer to some of the more obscure questions in Trivial Pursuit 2025 edition

Is Joe Biden in trouble? 

            I actually tack differently on this. I think Joe Biden is in the best possible position he can be in. I present to you North Carolina. Obama carried it in 2008, but barely. Trump won it, narrowly, in 2020. I think we all can agree that there is more energy in the Republican primary this year than the Democratic primary, yet, in North Carolina, voter turnout was almost identical – 670,000 votes or so cast in both primaries. I think that tells me North Carolina is in play, and, if, only 5-8% of Haley’s voters are never Trumpers, then that is enough to move North Carolina blue.

            Much is made of Michigan’s ‘protest’ vote. I am selling that, completely. It is a protest in-house, so to speak, but I think Biden is in a strong position in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. The real battlegrounds are Arizona and Georgia, but if Biden carries the blue wall of the upper-Midwest and Carolina, he doesn’t need Arizona and Georgia. 

            I know what you’re saying – Biden has problems. Of course he does, every incumbent does. However, my argument is that given the tone of the nation, All Biden has to do is have a heart-beat and he can probably beat Trump. As evidence of this, I present the senate race in Pennsylvania where Fetterman, who was very very ill, still won statewide over a MAGA candidate. Biden will likely carry Pennsylvania again. 

Joe Shaw says:

TLDR: Yes. Very much so. 

Longer: Joe Biden is in trouble, but it’s trouble of his own making. The economy. The border. Foreign affairs snafus. That creeping feeling that he’s in decline. He has a lot to answer for this time around. Both candidates do, but Joe’s questions are more pressing. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

Will either make it to November?

            If I were a betting man, I would wager that at least one of them, I don’t know which one, will actually not make it to November. Biden has a look in his eyes that I’ve seen many times from people facing cognitive and medical situations. I’m looking forward to watching the State of the Union tomorrow night just to analyze that aspect of his wellbeing. Former President Trump is not much better. To me, he looks a little like someone who is having congestive heart failure. He’s always been puffy, but his color and puffiness seems a little more pronounced now. We may have a situation where it is literally ‘lasts man standing’. 

Joe Shaw says:

For the longest time, I’ve been expecting Joe Biden to drop out. When Jon Stewart came back to the Daily Show and, right out of the gate, attacked Biden due to his age and declining mental faculties, I thought, “Well, now that Jon Steward has said it, it’s cool to say it, and all the Democratic news outlets will start pushing for him to step down.” 

That largely hasn’t happened. Jon Stewart isn’t young and hip anymore (he’s 60), and the news outlets have, instead, chosen to focus on Trump’s alleged decline. So who knows? 

I could see someone convincing Biden to step down. His declining state is clearly the most egregious, but I don’t see that happening. Absent Obama finding a loophole and running for a third term, I don’t see anyone in the Democrat Party with enough OOMPH to seriously challenge Trump in the general. 

Trump is in it for the long haul. No one will tear him out of that role. He’d have to have a heart attack and actually die from it and, even then, I think he’d find a way to run. 

What about the Veep Situation?

            I think Biden is locked in with Harris, although there is likely some buyers remorse there. She has underperformed and underwhelmed. I had higher expectations from her. I don’t know how he could move away from her and not alienate some key constituencies. 

            Trump, however, that is fun to think about. Elise Stefanik wants it really, really, really badly. I think she would be a bad choice for him, but she does have that Dick Cheney bulldog mentality that Trump probably likes. Ramaswamy wants it badly too, but I think the MAGA people are nice to him but don’t really believe him. He doesn’t need DeSantis. 

            Need is interesting. In 2016, he needed Pence to validate him with evangelicals. He doesn’t need that any more as evangelicals mostly think of Trump as an anointed King David figure and already speak of him in messianic terms. Who does Trump need? 

            I have a wildcard theory: he may go after Arizona specifically and choose Kari Lake or . . . wait for it . . .Krysten Sinema. The margins are so close there that Sinema may actually move the needle his way. 

            I can see Tucker Carlson on the ticket as well. No one has been more loyal – in fact, any of those hosts over at FOXNEWS might show up as Veep. Trump loves a good television show, and that really is what we have now – MAGA so dominates the Republican party, it is not about what he needs or others want, it is all about what Donald Trump wants. It is totally his show. 

Joe Shaw says:

Biden sticks with Kamala. IF there’s going to be a change, it will be at the top. 

Trump, I think, will go with someone like Kristi Noem or Tim Scott. Personally, I’d like to see him pick J.D. Vance. But only because JD Vance is from Ohio. I’m from Ohio and I like it when hometown folks do well. 

________________

Thanks for reading everyone. Remember, we can disagree, but we are still friends, family, and Americans. If we are going to recover the ability to talk about hard issues together we’re going to have to remember to not demonize everyone who has different kinds of thoughts.  

Twas The Night Before Super Tuesday . . .

These things are always more fun when both sides are contested. That hasn’t happened since 2016. This year the contest is quite boring. Nevertheless, popcorn and Kool-Aid will be enjoyed as I watch the results come in tomorrow night from around the nation.

Tomorrow afternoon, I vote, because Texas is a Super Tuesday state.

These are the things I’m looking at and thinking about. I’ve put it into three categories.

Category One: The GOP. Nikki Haley needs a surprise win somewhere big, say a California or a Texas (doubtful) or Colorado and she needs some states where she can get close to Donald Trump. The odds of this happening are slim, but not as slim as I think others believe. So far, former President Trump is underperforming all the polls on election days. He wins, yes, as one running as an incumbent should, but the margins are not blowouts and the percentage is never as much as the polling suggests it should be. That tells me there might be upsets. Say she takes the three northeastern states – Maine, Vermont, and Massachusetts and then pops off a Colorado or California. Then, things get very, very, very interesting.

If I were betting, though, I’d still bet on Trump to take the vast majority of delegates tomorrow and win the nomination.

Staying in Category One, Haley will not drop out because she is seeing what I am seeing and others are seeing: Former President Trump is not well. He doesn’t look good, and he sounds even worse. I thought that Biden’s age would be an issue (and it is is, more on that later) but NOW both Biden and Trump seem to be suffering lower capacity. If Trump is unable to finish the race, which is a possibility, she wants to be the last one standing. I really do think that is her primary stratagem right now.

Category Two: The Dems. The Media made a huge deal over the weekend with the ‘uncommitted vote’ in Michigan. That was a giant nothing burger. Biden is in the driver’s seat because he can raise money and not worry about any kind of opposition. These are mere formalities. What you will want to watch is turnout. If Democratic turnout is high even when there is no excitement, that might dispel the notion of ‘low enthusiasm’ among voters for Biden.

No challenger is also beneficial to him because of his age. He doesn’t have to keep up a grueling schedule of campaigning or debates. If he did, I’m not certain he’d make it.

Category Three: What I”m Watching and what I’m Thinking: The senate race in California is fascinating. It is a top two race, and the Republican, Steve Garvey, seems to be giving the usually reliable Democratic state a run for their money. I don’t think we will know who wins that one until the next day, but it should be interesting.

I’m also watching the North Carolina Gubernatorial GOP primary. The leading candidate for the GOP has apparently made holocaust denying claims in the past and has some wild views on things. I don’t usually think of North Carolina as that kind of state but I’ll be watching to see how it plays out.

In addition to this, I am thinking 1) Maybe a constitutional amendment limiting the electable age of a president t 75 would be a good idea. 2) If Haley wins nothing tomorrow, then we will have he longest general election ever and I’m not certain that is good. 3) I still feel, despite all evidence, there is a reasonable chance that neither Biden or Trump will be taking the oath of office on 20 January 2025. 4) I really wish there would be a debate between Trump and Haley. I just can’t believe the GOP isn’t making them. It is a disservice to the nation. 5) The State of the Union on Thursday should be . . . interesting but that might be another blog topic.

The Super Bowl — Greenbean’s Takes

Let’s relax a moment and do some culture-vulture while we pick over last night’s exciting Super Bowl. Congrats to the Kansas City Chiefs and Texas Tech Red Raider Patrick Mahomes (that shout out is for my little sprout, who is an alum). My team wasn’t in it, so I had absolutely no care as to who won or lost. But here are some highly questionable opinions you may or may not share.

It was a good football game, which is what is important. Either team could have won given the bounce of a ball or missed tackle here or there. That is the way it should be in the championship.Someone needs to see if Tom Brady DNA was used to maybe, somehow, clone Patrick Mahomes. He has such Brady rip-your-heart-out vibes. Usher isn’t really my vibe, but the roller-skates were impressive. Very impressive. The man is 45 years old. Forty. Five. The best commercial — Ney-Bah. The worst commercial — Whatever that was with Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, Jennifer Lopez, and Tom Brady. The Jesus commercials — He Gets Us — those are very controversial today and opinion is all over the spectrum. Let me tell you a story: I have four photographs that hang on my wall in my study at the church building. One of them is of Charles Haddon Spurgeon, who was once called the prince of preachers. Spurgeon was famous for starting controversies just to keep things interesting. Controversy isn’t always bad. Maybe those Jesus Commercials worked far better than anyone thinks.Did anyone else notice a bunch of extra looking referees with black shirts carrying duffle bags? I’ve never seen that before in my life and I have yet to see any kind of explanation. Weird. At least I thought it was weird.Jim Nantz sounded tired and Tony Romo needs a little coaching. He is still mostly good, but he needs a little coaching on when to be quiet. I am very happy for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, and I hope they live a long happy life together. However, I really don’t think I like that Kelce guy. He seems way too intense for me. Way. The worst decision I’ve seen in a Super Bowl since Pete Carroll decided to not give the ball to Marshawn Lynch was Shanahan choosing to take the ball first in overtime and then, somehow, thinking Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t go down the field and get a touchdown. All of North America knew that was going to happen. Come on Shannahan, Mahomes is like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl. A coach’s job is to put the players in a position to win the game, and he put his in a position to lose it, which is what they did.

More GOP Primary Analysis

If you’re not interested in GOP politics, close this now and go read something else or play Candy Crush.

Following Iowa’s GOP Caucuses, I dazzled you with Greenbeanlytics of what had taken place. Last week, the only two remaining candidates, former president Donald Trump and Nikki Haley faced off in New Hampshire. Here are some thoughts of what happened, and what is happening.

Obviously, Donald Trump won. And he won by eleven percentage points in the general voting. However, he only won by three delegates in the way they are allotted. So, taken that way, it wasn’t an overwhelming victory for the former president. I point out again the quasi-incumbent role that Donald Trump is running on. If Joe Biden had performed that poorly people would be saying he was in trouble, and they would be right.

Most people think this race is done. I am not so certain. They say that because of the polls, the opinion polls, in state after state that show Donald Trump having a commanding lead over Nikki Haley. These leads are substantial — from twenty percentage points to fifty in places like Michigan. These numbers should not be ignored. Yet, there is the nagging issue that in the last two contests these polls have been wrong by at least ten points. It is not enough to make-up the difference, but Trump is over-polling and under-performing on election days. According to fivethirtyeight, some polls had Trump up over Haley by 28 points the day before the primary. See what I’m saying? The most recent poll out of South Carolina has Trump ahead by . . . 27%. If Haley can be within five points of Donald Trump or better coming out of South Carolina, it is a whole new ball game. But let me emphasize — Trump is still the safe bet. He should win the nomination (and by should I mean not that I prefer it, because Greenbean is generally apolitical, but he should in the sense all the numbers and all the data tilt his way heavily.)

A lot was made about independents voting in New Hampshire, and swinging mostly for Haley by the tune of 70%. People argued this wasn’t fair or that it meant Republicans chose Trump but Democrats were trying to interfere. But, I don’t read it the same way. New Hampshire voters tend to swing to the election that is most interesting. Take, for example, 2020. In 2020, Donald Trump won the GOP Primary in New Hampshire by getting 85% of the vote –130,000 out of 150,000 votes In that same year, Bernie Sanders got 76,000 votes, Pete Buttigieg got 74,000, Amy Klobuchar got 58,000, Elizabeth Warren got 27,000 and bringing up the rear . . . Joe Biden with 25,000. That is a total of 258,000 votes way more than were cast in the GOP. Why? I suggest it was more interesting. The exact opposite happened this year because Joe Biden has it wrapped up.

Now, this is a good time to point out that none of the winners of New Hampshire or Iowa, or even the top two, went on to win the presidency in 2020. For reasons that can only be speculated on, the media, in cahoots with the political parties, seem determined to end the primary as soon as possible to force a Biden v. Trump contest. Again, I say, safe money is on Trump. He should win because he has dominated the GOP so much for the last eight years. However, it is not a foregone conclusion.

Here is why: A lot can happen in a month. The South Carolina GOP primary is February 24. Haley would be a fool to pull out before then, and I think she’d be a fool to pull out before Super Tuesday. A lot can happen. We are so accustomed to scripted political scenes today — the way conventions and talking points are handed around — but surprises happen. Nature, illness, legal woes, new information, any number of things could occur. So far, former President Trump has remained immune to these, but one feels like at some point, something will budge. I think in the state of South Carolina, we might see a lot of conservative leaning Democrats jump ship to vote for a governor they have already voted for once.

I think we will have an idea after this week, because the Dems are having their primary on Saturday. If turnout for that primary is low, it may mean some are holding their vote to cast it in the GOP. Just like in New Hampshire, you can vote in either one, but obviously you can’t vote in both.

I think this is getting very interesting.

And what would be really interesting is a debate between Trump and Haley. It is not going to happen, because the former POTUS is afraid to debate this year, but boy would it be interesting. For what its worth, I think Trump needs to debate Haley to sharpen his rhetoric before he starts facing off with Joe Biden. It doesn’t serve him to take the safest, easiest road to the nomination.

Iowa Caucuses — Some Thoughts

I did not watch last night’s caucus returns. Mrs. Greenbean and I watched Paddington and Paddington 2. Turns out, that was much more enjoyable. I just love that little bear. Also, history tells me the television coverage of the Iowa Caucus is just a camera shot of a high school gym with cold people standing around. Not riveting. The commentators are usually nonsensical, not because the are nonsensical by nature (though some are) but they are forced to fill airtime but here is no news. No one really knew anything at 8PM last night.

And to be honest, we still don’t. Such is the nature of the process. But here are some thoughts — and as I share these please remember this is not cheerleading for any one candidate or side. Greenbean does not play favorites and he generally distrusts all politicians. However, I do enjoy the horserace and the analysis.

1. It was a good night for Donald Trump. The problem for him on this good night is that it was expected. The pressure was really for him to slam dunk it, and slam dunk it he did. Anything less than that would have been viewed as total failure.

2. However, it was a better night for Joe Biden. Most of the country expects a 2020 redux, and if that is the case, Biden not having to compete was beneficial in terms of time, money, and energy. Not having to compete in primaries and caucuses is one of the reasons why incumbents usually have the edge in November — they don’t suffer from all those shots fired by their own team.

3. But imagine — and this is a very random thought — imagine if Biden had been primaried by three or four competitors last night and he received about half the vote, or just over the half the vote? People would be screaming what terrible shape he is in and that his campaign is in trouble. As they should. The catch — and this is where it is problematic for the former president — the catch is Donald Trump is a ‘de facto’ incumbent running in the Republican field. We don’t have a lot of data in the modern world for this, but there is no comparison for someone like him running who has already served a four year term and run twice before. Ergo, the media should, and if they had any credibility they would, be asking themselves this question: how is it he only got about half the Republican votes in one of the reddest of the reddest states? Again, my argument is that in many ways we have two ‘incumbent’ POTUS candidates here, and now imagine if Biden had only gotten about 51% of the vote in say, a very blue state like Washington or Massachusetts. That’s the problem if you’re a Trump fan and it is a very real problem. About half of the voters last night said, ‘We’d like someone else, please.’

4. Before we get to that someone else, let’s talk about raw numbers. Iowa was in the middle of a blizzard, so that has an impact, but only about 102,000 people voted last night. That is the same number roughly that will fill the football stadium in Austin. For comparison, about 187,000 people voted in 2016, the last time the GOP caucused in Iowa and Ted Cruz won that one. But go back to that 102,000 people. If my information is correct, that represents only about 14% of registered Republicans in the state of Iowa. I know it was a blizzard, but man, that is not a lot of excitement. The Dems got 176,000 in 2020 for their caucus, which was won by Pete Buttigieg, but just barely, over Bernie Sanders. Again, this year is weird, but you know what Cruz, Buttigieg, and Sanders all have in common? None of them became president. And actually, none of them really got that close.

5. So what I saying — the Media is making too much of this, and when they do make a lot of it, it is usually the wrong focus. I am not saying Donald Trump will not win the nomination or will not necessarily win back the White House. What I am saying is that Donald Trump’s win in Iowa doesn’t mean a whole lot.

6. Now, the someone elses. Christie is gone. Hutchinson is gone. Ramaswamy is gone. Now it really is just a three person race. DeSantis has very little organization in New Hampshire or South Caroline. He has about a week to build one. The problem with South Carolina is . . . that is Nikki Haley’s backyard. Early polls in New Hampshire show show Haley in second and within striking distance (especially with Christie out, who had his highest poll numbers in New Hampshire and it is hard to imagine a Christie voter moving back to Trump). If Haley is a strong second — within five points or so, look for DeSantis to receive the knockout blow in South Carolina. Then we have a two person race for the rest of the country, which, could be very, very, very interesting.

5. Let’s talk about Haley for a moment. Some of the reports I’ve read today indicate a belief, especially among Trump fans, that many of her votes were actually Democrats who had nothing better to do than meddle in the GOP caucus. This is nothing new — people accused Republicans of the same four years ago. I don’t think there is much to that because turnout wasn’t that high, and there were no other issues on the ballot. You might have some of that if bonds, council elections, state constitutional issues or such were on the ballot, but very, very, very few real people would go out in bad weather and vote for someone they really don’t care about. I’m not saying it didn’t happen, what I am saying is there is no way it happened to the degree that it had any kind of an impact upon the results. I mean, for that matter, some Dems may have crossed over to vote for Trump because they believe Biden will beat him easily rather than against Haley, who, right now, has a bigger edge head to head against Biden than anyone.

6. Now, this is when I put in a plug. What we have here is about 7% of a tiny state exercising an outsized influence on a nation of 330 million people. And what would it look like if Biden were on the ballot right now? Here is a proposal for election reform that would make it all so much better. Have the individual primaries and caucuses, but work it all as a top two vote getter among all the candidates. So Biden, Trump, Haley, DeSantis — all are out there right now competing. Then, when the primaries are over, the top two then go head to head regardless of party. I actually think if that happened, then you’d get something like a Haley vs. Trump November or maybe eight years ago (2016) there would the been a Clinton vs. Sanders in November. The system we have now gives us the same retreaded binary option every four years, and most people realize this is a sick process. We need open primaries, and we need them very soon.

New Hampshire is next week. And I am sure I will ideas about that as well.

In Which I Defend My Predictions For 2024 Against The Dark Nostradamus That Is Joe Shaw

This goes to prove there is a first time for everything. Historically, I make my 2024 predictions and then walk away for the year. However, the last several years my good friend and everyone’s favorite ‘Florida Man’ has decided to rebut my predictions. This year, I rebut back. Which, I guess means a re-rebuttal.

You can read Joe’s Blog and refutation of my predictions by clicking here.

I will take these in order.

I predict an expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas but Joe goes one step further and predicts WWIII by 2025. I do not see that happening. Somehow Joe connects this to an election of a democrat in 2024 to the presidency because of a softening based on Hamas. Joe has a point in that there is a softening because of Israel’s harsh prosecution of their war on Hamas. However, Americans are mostly clear eyed — criticism of Israel’s tactics does not equate in support for Hamas. Two things can be true at once and I think regardless off enter the Dems or GOP win the White House regional conflict can occur without eschatological WWIII. I think the Ukraine war will end favorably, mostly, toward Zelensky and current Ukrainian government. Joe sees it as falling to Russia as a puppet state. In further re-re-rebuttal, I think Zelensky will be around longer than Putin. Joe laughs at my prediction of the fall of communism in China and instead sees a growing Chinese military presence threatening Taiwan even more. I can see where he would come to this, but I continue to read from various sources of societal paradigm shifts within Chinese culture combined with what looks like increased paranoia by Xi. Three years ago it looked like totalitarianism was on the rise and would overtake democracy, but what we saw might have been the frantic spasms of death in many totalitarian states. I am not quite sure what Joe is saying, but I think he is saying Trump wins the election in 2024. I have a hard time seeing that occurring. I am not a fan of charging Trump with all of these crimes as I fear greatly the politicizing of prosecution. Nevertheless, I just don’t think Trump can win again. Joe and I agree – the Chiefs are out early in the NFL Playoffs. Baltimore does look very good, but I feel like they are the kind of team which might stumble early in the playoffs. The field is wide open.THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES THIS YEAR. THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES THIS YEAR. THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOF SERIES THIS YEAR. *Jamie clicks his heels three times as he says these words*Joe thinks I am preternaturally optimistic about the idea of immigration reform happening. I feel the cynicism, Joe, but eventually adults will stand up and take over the process of immigration reform. After the election it will happen. It must. Immigration reform is a categorical imperative. I think dems win big in 2024 because of the Dobbs decision. Joe says not so fast. I agree with Joe on the problems inherent in much of the platform of the far left of the Democratic Party but I also think he greatly underestimate the energy of this abortion issue. It is tangible and it terrifies many peoples. I am Pro-life but the crazy insistence that a woman take a tubal pregnancy to term or can’t have a miscarriage fully removed is primeval. It will cost Republicans a lot. Joe thinks I’m off base with the UK rejoining the EU. He believes Greece and Italy will leave. However, I don’t think they will ever leave the EU because they benefit from it so much. I do think immigration in Europe, as here, must be handled differently. I do think that the UK will come back to the EU. I might be off by a year or two, but it will happen.I believe a housing bust is coming, too. But it will be in 2025 or 26. Inflation continues to fall, which might cause a cut in rates, but I don’t think they will.

So, that is my re-rebuttal of his rebuttal on my predictions. Joe went on to make some predictions of his own. I am so proud of him for doing that. I knew he could.

Here are some of my thoughts on his predictions — which are numerous and wonky because Joe is a tech-savant extraordinaire. Here we go.

Joe: Generative AI (LLM and creation) will further embed itself into society the way social media did two decades ago, and we will get to the point where we cannot extricate ourselves … same as with social media. This will have disastrous effects on mental health, creativity, productivity, and interpersonal relationships. Yeah, I know I did a TED talk on how AI taking over can be a good thing … but I totally reverse myself now. 

I cannot disagree with any of this, although I am not sure this is an actual prediction because we already in the midst of such malaise. I think your first prediction is actually more of a description.

Joe: Open AI will work with Microsoft to develop the first Artificial General intelligence systems. That’s when things get really fun/dangerous. 

Or, alternately, could it get better? I think most of us would say that AI has had some negative impacts (like terrifying fake videos) but it is also helpful in medicine, travel, and the always important predictive text.

Joe: No matter who wins the election in November, there will be riots all over the country. No matter who loses, they will use said riots as an example of how bad the winning team was for America. Things will continue down the same, dark path.

I disagree in tone here. I think the worst is behind us. I really do feel the fever has broken. The left and the right have failed us, and there will be a middle road–not a third party, but a candidate or a movement within one of the existing parties that will bring a unity. I really do think this.  

Joe: The Cincinnati Reds will not make the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers will break the record for most wins/highest winning percentage in a season, then lose to the Mets in the NLDS, who will eventually win the World Series over the Trashtros. 

Wouldn’t it be fun if the Reds and Mariners met in the World Series?

Joe: The Cincinnati Bengals will dominate the AFC until Joe Burrow gets injured again in early December. 

Burrow will rebound and will take the Bengals back to the Super Bowl in 2025.

Joe: A large hurricane will cause billions in damage for either The Florida Gulf coast or the Houston area. 

Again, my friend, this is more of a description than a prediction because it kinda happens every year.

Joe: Pope Francis will pass, and the college of cardinals will elect someone from a little-known diocese where the cardinals are more pastoral in nature and close to the poor and marginalized. There will be a resulting resurgence of faith among Catholics in 2025, following a trend of intra-denominational unity among various sects of Christianity in the next few years.

I can definitely see this happening. Francis passing might not be all that natural, though (think, The Godfather III). I would welcome it as I feel denominations in general need a good euthanizing.

Joe: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will break up. Taylor will write an entire album about their relationship. NFL viewership will drop by 30%. 

I almost predicted that they get married, but didn’t. I think they will marry in a small wedding in Connecticut.

Joe: Threads will overtake X/Twitter as the primary text-based social media. TikTok will continue to destroy our minds and our children’s minds.

Again, description not prediction.  

Joe: Google begins to fade as the search engine is increasingly unable to detect ai-generated content and therefore becomes useless. This has been a trend since GPT-4 came out. 

You seem really focused on the AI and tech stuff, almost like it is your specialty or something.

Joe: AI-powered content farms, producing endless pages of excrement will push out legacy media and even digital media guardians in competition for ad and click dollars, resulting in significant job losses in these sectors. 

This may be the immediate future, but long term will solve these problems because people will demand quality and human interaction.

Joe: Elon Musk becomes a social pariah as the DOJ files suit against X/Twitter for not upholding standards for security and consent review. 

I do think Elon is dangerous, but does he have enough money, influence, and government contracts to keep him from tumbling? I can’t decide if he is a Benjamin Franklin figure or a Howard Hughes. I do know he has spent a lot of money in my backyard of central Texas.

Joe: The severe decrease in customer-focused services during and post-COVID by literally everyone except Chick- Fil-A will leave several industries ripe for disruption in 2024, resulting in many up-and-comer business in many industries winning because they simply do things in a way that doesn’t completely suck.

I am not as optimistic as you are about Jesus Chicken, but I do agree that customer service will be a catch-word amongst entrepreneurs because it is practically extinct.  

Joe: There will be a boom in Alternative housing, starting in 2024. Skyrocketing home purchases and rent costs will drive many to pursue options like tiny homes, off-grid living, and communal spaces like converted malls and office buildings.

I kind of predicted this in 2021, so plagiarism much? Click here.

Joe: Starbucks will invest in retail spaces in larger cities to open coffee restaurants that double as co-working spaces for remote and hybrid workers. 

That’s actually not a bad idea.

Joe: Jamie will do another prediction post at the end of the year, and I will respond with my nonsense ideas. 

Anything less would be disappointing, but again, this is a description and not a prediction.

Predictions for 2024

Last year I didn’t do very well at all. Out of ten, only one was accurate. However, I was close to right on a couple of others, but not right enough to get credit. Will last years epic failure deter me from making predictions for 2024? Absolutely not.

Now, here is the disclaimer — I am not a prophet nor the son of a prophet; I have no clairvoyance; there is no crystal ball; Greenbean has no inside mystical information. No, none of that. I am simply looking at the winds, the trends, and the data and making some very very doubtful guesses. As always, these are not things I necessarily want to happen, but I think will happen. Please don’t ascribe any wishful thinking or agenda to these.

Here goes my ten predictions for 2024.

The war between Israel and Hamas will expand into open war between Iran and Israel, which will increase support for Israel in the United States and the West. War in Ukraine will end in the first half of the year as Ukraine cedes claims to the Donbas region and the territories taken by Russia in Crimea in 2014 while Russian agrees to withdraw troops and promises to not hinder or oppose Ukraine’s full entry into NATO, thereby protecting the rest of the nation from further incursions. There will be an overthrow of the Communist rule in China. Contrary to the way it looks now, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will win a second presidency in 2024. The San Francisco 49ers will play the Miami Dolphins in the Super Bowl.The Seattle Mariners will win a playoff series.In the lame duck session a real, meaningful immigration and border reform bill will finally pass. Fueled by energy from the Dobbs decision, Democrats will win both the House and the Senate. The United Kingdom will petition to rejoin the E.U.Even though inflation is coming down, The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high.

Okay folks. That’s it. Those are my predictions for 2024.