More GOP Primary Analysis

If you’re not interested in GOP politics, close this now and go read something else or play Candy Crush.

Following Iowa’s GOP Caucuses, I dazzled you with Greenbeanlytics of what had taken place. Last week, the only two remaining candidates, former president Donald Trump and Nikki Haley faced off in New Hampshire. Here are some thoughts of what happened, and what is happening.

Obviously, Donald Trump won. And he won by eleven percentage points in the general voting. However, he only won by three delegates in the way they are allotted. So, taken that way, it wasn’t an overwhelming victory for the former president. I point out again the quasi-incumbent role that Donald Trump is running on. If Joe Biden had performed that poorly people would be saying he was in trouble, and they would be right.

Most people think this race is done. I am not so certain. They say that because of the polls, the opinion polls, in state after state that show Donald Trump having a commanding lead over Nikki Haley. These leads are substantial — from twenty percentage points to fifty in places like Michigan. These numbers should not be ignored. Yet, there is the nagging issue that in the last two contests these polls have been wrong by at least ten points. It is not enough to make-up the difference, but Trump is over-polling and under-performing on election days. According to fivethirtyeight, some polls had Trump up over Haley by 28 points the day before the primary. See what I’m saying? The most recent poll out of South Carolina has Trump ahead by . . . 27%. If Haley can be within five points of Donald Trump or better coming out of South Carolina, it is a whole new ball game. But let me emphasize — Trump is still the safe bet. He should win the nomination (and by should I mean not that I prefer it, because Greenbean is generally apolitical, but he should in the sense all the numbers and all the data tilt his way heavily.)

A lot was made about independents voting in New Hampshire, and swinging mostly for Haley by the tune of 70%. People argued this wasn’t fair or that it meant Republicans chose Trump but Democrats were trying to interfere. But, I don’t read it the same way. New Hampshire voters tend to swing to the election that is most interesting. Take, for example, 2020. In 2020, Donald Trump won the GOP Primary in New Hampshire by getting 85% of the vote –130,000 out of 150,000 votes In that same year, Bernie Sanders got 76,000 votes, Pete Buttigieg got 74,000, Amy Klobuchar got 58,000, Elizabeth Warren got 27,000 and bringing up the rear . . . Joe Biden with 25,000. That is a total of 258,000 votes way more than were cast in the GOP. Why? I suggest it was more interesting. The exact opposite happened this year because Joe Biden has it wrapped up.

Now, this is a good time to point out that none of the winners of New Hampshire or Iowa, or even the top two, went on to win the presidency in 2020. For reasons that can only be speculated on, the media, in cahoots with the political parties, seem determined to end the primary as soon as possible to force a Biden v. Trump contest. Again, I say, safe money is on Trump. He should win because he has dominated the GOP so much for the last eight years. However, it is not a foregone conclusion.

Here is why: A lot can happen in a month. The South Carolina GOP primary is February 24. Haley would be a fool to pull out before then, and I think she’d be a fool to pull out before Super Tuesday. A lot can happen. We are so accustomed to scripted political scenes today — the way conventions and talking points are handed around — but surprises happen. Nature, illness, legal woes, new information, any number of things could occur. So far, former President Trump has remained immune to these, but one feels like at some point, something will budge. I think in the state of South Carolina, we might see a lot of conservative leaning Democrats jump ship to vote for a governor they have already voted for once.

I think we will have an idea after this week, because the Dems are having their primary on Saturday. If turnout for that primary is low, it may mean some are holding their vote to cast it in the GOP. Just like in New Hampshire, you can vote in either one, but obviously you can’t vote in both.

I think this is getting very interesting.

And what would be really interesting is a debate between Trump and Haley. It is not going to happen, because the former POTUS is afraid to debate this year, but boy would it be interesting. For what its worth, I think Trump needs to debate Haley to sharpen his rhetoric before he starts facing off with Joe Biden. It doesn’t serve him to take the safest, easiest road to the nomination.