In Which I Defend My Predictions For 2024 Against The Dark Nostradamus That Is Joe Shaw

This goes to prove there is a first time for everything. Historically, I make my 2024 predictions and then walk away for the year. However, the last several years my good friend and everyone’s favorite ‘Florida Man’ has decided to rebut my predictions. This year, I rebut back. Which, I guess means a re-rebuttal.

You can read Joe’s Blog and refutation of my predictions by clicking here.

I will take these in order.

I predict an expansion of the conflict between Israel and Hamas but Joe goes one step further and predicts WWIII by 2025. I do not see that happening. Somehow Joe connects this to an election of a democrat in 2024 to the presidency because of a softening based on Hamas. Joe has a point in that there is a softening because of Israel’s harsh prosecution of their war on Hamas. However, Americans are mostly clear eyed — criticism of Israel’s tactics does not equate in support for Hamas. Two things can be true at once and I think regardless off enter the Dems or GOP win the White House regional conflict can occur without eschatological WWIII. I think the Ukraine war will end favorably, mostly, toward Zelensky and current Ukrainian government. Joe sees it as falling to Russia as a puppet state. In further re-re-rebuttal, I think Zelensky will be around longer than Putin. Joe laughs at my prediction of the fall of communism in China and instead sees a growing Chinese military presence threatening Taiwan even more. I can see where he would come to this, but I continue to read from various sources of societal paradigm shifts within Chinese culture combined with what looks like increased paranoia by Xi. Three years ago it looked like totalitarianism was on the rise and would overtake democracy, but what we saw might have been the frantic spasms of death in many totalitarian states. I am not quite sure what Joe is saying, but I think he is saying Trump wins the election in 2024. I have a hard time seeing that occurring. I am not a fan of charging Trump with all of these crimes as I fear greatly the politicizing of prosecution. Nevertheless, I just don’t think Trump can win again. Joe and I agree – the Chiefs are out early in the NFL Playoffs. Baltimore does look very good, but I feel like they are the kind of team which might stumble early in the playoffs. The field is wide open.THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES THIS YEAR. THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOFF SERIES THIS YEAR. THE MARINERS WILL WIN A PLAYOF SERIES THIS YEAR. *Jamie clicks his heels three times as he says these words*Joe thinks I am preternaturally optimistic about the idea of immigration reform happening. I feel the cynicism, Joe, but eventually adults will stand up and take over the process of immigration reform. After the election it will happen. It must. Immigration reform is a categorical imperative. I think dems win big in 2024 because of the Dobbs decision. Joe says not so fast. I agree with Joe on the problems inherent in much of the platform of the far left of the Democratic Party but I also think he greatly underestimate the energy of this abortion issue. It is tangible and it terrifies many peoples. I am Pro-life but the crazy insistence that a woman take a tubal pregnancy to term or can’t have a miscarriage fully removed is primeval. It will cost Republicans a lot. Joe thinks I’m off base with the UK rejoining the EU. He believes Greece and Italy will leave. However, I don’t think they will ever leave the EU because they benefit from it so much. I do think immigration in Europe, as here, must be handled differently. I do think that the UK will come back to the EU. I might be off by a year or two, but it will happen.I believe a housing bust is coming, too. But it will be in 2025 or 26. Inflation continues to fall, which might cause a cut in rates, but I don’t think they will.

So, that is my re-rebuttal of his rebuttal on my predictions. Joe went on to make some predictions of his own. I am so proud of him for doing that. I knew he could.

Here are some of my thoughts on his predictions — which are numerous and wonky because Joe is a tech-savant extraordinaire. Here we go.

Joe: Generative AI (LLM and creation) will further embed itself into society the way social media did two decades ago, and we will get to the point where we cannot extricate ourselves … same as with social media. This will have disastrous effects on mental health, creativity, productivity, and interpersonal relationships. Yeah, I know I did a TED talk on how AI taking over can be a good thing … but I totally reverse myself now. 

I cannot disagree with any of this, although I am not sure this is an actual prediction because we already in the midst of such malaise. I think your first prediction is actually more of a description.

Joe: Open AI will work with Microsoft to develop the first Artificial General intelligence systems. That’s when things get really fun/dangerous. 

Or, alternately, could it get better? I think most of us would say that AI has had some negative impacts (like terrifying fake videos) but it is also helpful in medicine, travel, and the always important predictive text.

Joe: No matter who wins the election in November, there will be riots all over the country. No matter who loses, they will use said riots as an example of how bad the winning team was for America. Things will continue down the same, dark path.

I disagree in tone here. I think the worst is behind us. I really do feel the fever has broken. The left and the right have failed us, and there will be a middle road–not a third party, but a candidate or a movement within one of the existing parties that will bring a unity. I really do think this.  

Joe: The Cincinnati Reds will not make the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers will break the record for most wins/highest winning percentage in a season, then lose to the Mets in the NLDS, who will eventually win the World Series over the Trashtros. 

Wouldn’t it be fun if the Reds and Mariners met in the World Series?

Joe: The Cincinnati Bengals will dominate the AFC until Joe Burrow gets injured again in early December. 

Burrow will rebound and will take the Bengals back to the Super Bowl in 2025.

Joe: A large hurricane will cause billions in damage for either The Florida Gulf coast or the Houston area. 

Again, my friend, this is more of a description than a prediction because it kinda happens every year.

Joe: Pope Francis will pass, and the college of cardinals will elect someone from a little-known diocese where the cardinals are more pastoral in nature and close to the poor and marginalized. There will be a resulting resurgence of faith among Catholics in 2025, following a trend of intra-denominational unity among various sects of Christianity in the next few years.

I can definitely see this happening. Francis passing might not be all that natural, though (think, The Godfather III). I would welcome it as I feel denominations in general need a good euthanizing.

Joe: Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will break up. Taylor will write an entire album about their relationship. NFL viewership will drop by 30%. 

I almost predicted that they get married, but didn’t. I think they will marry in a small wedding in Connecticut.

Joe: Threads will overtake X/Twitter as the primary text-based social media. TikTok will continue to destroy our minds and our children’s minds.

Again, description not prediction.  

Joe: Google begins to fade as the search engine is increasingly unable to detect ai-generated content and therefore becomes useless. This has been a trend since GPT-4 came out. 

You seem really focused on the AI and tech stuff, almost like it is your specialty or something.

Joe: AI-powered content farms, producing endless pages of excrement will push out legacy media and even digital media guardians in competition for ad and click dollars, resulting in significant job losses in these sectors. 

This may be the immediate future, but long term will solve these problems because people will demand quality and human interaction.

Joe: Elon Musk becomes a social pariah as the DOJ files suit against X/Twitter for not upholding standards for security and consent review. 

I do think Elon is dangerous, but does he have enough money, influence, and government contracts to keep him from tumbling? I can’t decide if he is a Benjamin Franklin figure or a Howard Hughes. I do know he has spent a lot of money in my backyard of central Texas.

Joe: The severe decrease in customer-focused services during and post-COVID by literally everyone except Chick- Fil-A will leave several industries ripe for disruption in 2024, resulting in many up-and-comer business in many industries winning because they simply do things in a way that doesn’t completely suck.

I am not as optimistic as you are about Jesus Chicken, but I do agree that customer service will be a catch-word amongst entrepreneurs because it is practically extinct.  

Joe: There will be a boom in Alternative housing, starting in 2024. Skyrocketing home purchases and rent costs will drive many to pursue options like tiny homes, off-grid living, and communal spaces like converted malls and office buildings.

I kind of predicted this in 2021, so plagiarism much? Click here.

Joe: Starbucks will invest in retail spaces in larger cities to open coffee restaurants that double as co-working spaces for remote and hybrid workers. 

That’s actually not a bad idea.

Joe: Jamie will do another prediction post at the end of the year, and I will respond with my nonsense ideas. 

Anything less would be disappointing, but again, this is a description and not a prediction.