Sanjeev Sabhlok's Blog, page 64

Notes on the LA County serological study – IFR

This study, published on 21 April, has a very low IFR. But also very low proportion infected overall – therefore sampling issues remain. I might ignore this study after further examination. BACKGROUND Bhattacharya and Bendavid have also collaborated with Neeraj Sood, a health policy expert at the University of Southern California, to do a similar […]

Notes on the Santa Clara serological study – IFR 0.17%

The study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11... “The raw prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in our sample was 1.5%.” Given the limitations of such tests at such low levels of prevalence, I’m considering ignoring this study. Paper: Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence It’s perfectly plausible (in the 95% CI sense) that the shocking prevalence rates published […]

Notes on the New York serological study – IFR 0.86%

The study: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c... IFR = 0.863% Haven’t had time to review the numerator. If they are not including excess deaths, then the IFR could be higher. BACKGROUND On April 23, Cuomo announced preliminary data from the state’s sero-survey, saying that 13.9% of state residents had tested positive for antibodies. In New York City, it was about 21%. […]

Notes on the Spain serological study – IFR 1.2%

This study suggests a rather high IFR but the sample size is HUGE. It is therefore like to be a valid study. Obviously, more can only be said once the study has been critically analysed. Preliminary results from randomized antibody test in Spain (N=70,000)– About 5% of population infected (10 times official figures)– IFR: 1-1.2%– […]

Notes on Swedish Public Health Authority serological study IFR 0.6%

On 15 May 2020 Lisa Brouwers, head of analysis at the Public Health Authority published this. I’m happy to accept this figure as being reasonably valid. MY NOTES   That's better – more in the range I've been thinking about. Estimates of 0.1% have seemed too low. But that should not change Sweden's strategy – […]

COVID-19 death rate is likely < 1% even in countries with older populations

This is a placeholder post – will write an article in TOI blogs on this matter in a week or two. Studies so far are all over the place – I’ll need to go through them systematically to determine which of them are more reliable and relevant, before arriving at a more formal view for […]

Second and third waves of the virus – some notes

This is a placeholder post. I’m convinced (and have written about in TOI many times now) that there is no way eradicate the virus – particularly within large countries like India or China. We see that even in Wuhan: More alarming are the new cluster of infections in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where cases […]

Official Swedish data show a minor increase in total deaths that’s reverting to normal

When I shared this I got a request for the original source. Sweden's deaths are now starting to track LOWER THAN IN AN AVERAGE YEAR. See also: https://t.co/v4kJlfBzM7 pic.twitter.com/po8Ll5vY3c — Sanjeev Sabhlok, Pope @Church of Reason & Liberty (@sabhlok) May 5, 2020 Here’s the source of this official Swedish data: https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/news-a... This webpage contains a […]

Rejecting Liberal International as a liberal organisation

For some reason I signed up for a newsletter from this organisation. Due to time constraints I rarely get to read what they write but today I found this – and have unsubscribed. This is NOT what liberals look for in public policy. They need strong proof before considering any “action”. These guys are socialists.  […]

My next TOI blog post: Testing and contact tracing can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2

Two parts: Testing and contact tracing can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2 – Part 1 Testing and contact tracing can’t eradicate SARS-CoV-2 – Part 2 If you want the original articles with URLs, write to me.