Sanjeev Sabhlok's Blog, page 63

URGENT: Herd immunity for COVID-19 could be as low as 15%

ADDENDUM After reviewing comments here, I’ve tentatively concluded: There are two reasons to explain the resistance: (a) social distancing leading to low viral load, so the virus doesn’t reach transmissible levels, and (b) innate immunity. The key point, as Vernon Smith has pointed out, is that “the claim is that the 80% “resistance” accounts for […]

My next TOI blog post: The effect of innate immunity, cross-reactivity, trained immunity and vitamin D on Covid-19

This.

Notes on innate immunity, particularly in relation to coronaviruses

This is preparatory material for a TOI blog post I plan to write to address Tim Colbourn’s question. The idea here is to understand the concept of innate immunity further and to work out whether Sunetra Gupta is right. My last tweet first: This article suggests innate immunity can work excessively (cytokine storm) – which […]

If Sunetra Gupta is right, then Sweden, UK and Spain are close to herd immunity

Sunetra Gupta of Oxford emphases the issue of significant innate immunity and immunity from common cold. Since Unherd has issued a copyright strike against SBP’s youtube channel I’m not sharing on Youtube (as I’d normally do), but have shared the relevant extract on social media. Depending on your preferred medium, you can click on either […]

Update: Sweden’s pandemic has probably (a little) more distance to go

  Email I just sent out to a group of interested persons: === Hi all Just thought I’d update since I’d earlier considered Anders Tegnell’s view (that Sweden will achieve herd immunity by end-May) to be broadly in the ballpark, but it now turns out that he was somewhat over-optimistic. Initial serological studies in Stockholm […]

This is the worst interference with personal liberty in our history – Lord Sumption

Melroy Fernandes sent me this, and I’m posting it as is, for it contains valuable info. Thanks, Melroy. ======= Here’s some more of Sumption for our con-sumption. Length: abt. 8mins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86P7E... Lord Sumption discusses Coronavirus lockdown on BBCR4 PM with Evan Davis •May 12, 2020 “This is the worst interference with personal liberty in our […]

Six reasons why there won’t be an economic depression

The virus may have caused the recession but only governments can convert this calamity into a depression. Fortunately, I am able to predict that most governments will not reimpose strong lockdowns even if there is a spike in cases. Serological studies confirm that this virus is not a Spanish flu. Its IFR is far lower […]

Serological studies I’m ignoring: Chelsea, Dutch, Danish, Iran etc.

These studies don’t meet the most basic tests Chelsea Nearly a third of 200 blood samples taken in Chelsea show exposure to coronavirus IFR 0.71% We did extensive internal validation at MGH of this assay before we used it in the field. We've tested 377 negative controls – only 2 false positives. Neg ctrls included […]

Notes on the German (Heinsberg) serological study – IFR 0.37%

The study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.11... IFR 0.37% FATAL CRITIQUE “the study sampled entire households. That can lead to overestimating infections, because people living together often infect each other” [Source]. To me that’s a serious shortcoming. “Streeck and his colleagues claimed the commercial antibody test they used has “more than 99% specificity,” but a Danish group found the test […]

Notes on the Miami-Dade serological study – IFR upto 0.31%

“Taking the fatality number for 21 days after the median testing date, the IFR is 0.17% to 0.31%. This is likely an overestimation as most people use a 14 day delay.” [Source]   Miami-Dade has tens of thousands of missed coronavirus infections, UM survey finds The study, spurred by Miami-Dade County officials, will be an ongoing […]