Bryan Caplan's Blog, page 5

The Default of Fear

Wikipedia’s article on gender bias on Wikipedia is fascinating at the meta-level.   It starts with basic facts:

In a 2018 survey covering 12 language versions of Wikipedia and some other Wikimedia Foundation projects, 90% of contributors reported their gender as male, 8.8% as female, and 1% as other. Among contributors to the English Wikipedia, 13.6% identified as female and 1.7% as other.[5] Other studies since 2011, mostly focused on the English Wikipedia, have estimated the percentage of f...

Covid Migration: Why the Asymmetry?

During Covid, the U.S. reverted to our old tradition of federalism – and then embraced gubernatorial dictatorship.  As  result of this strange and shocking institutional revolution, the U.S. witnessed a dramatic rise in policy variance.  Some parts of the U.S., like Florida and Texas, returned to near-normalcy in a matter of months.  Others, like California and New York, became and remain soft police states.

We’ve now spent the better part of two years arguing about which states have the best po...

U-Shaped Deterrence

“The death penalty deters murder.”  A classic right-wing idea.  So classic, in fact, that it’s tempting to think that the idea of deterrence itself is right-wing.

Yet on reflection, that’s absurd. 

The left strongly believes in deterrence for discrimination.  If you said, “Let’s cap discrimination damages at $1000,” they would predict a massive increase in discrimination.  

The left strongly believes in deterrence for pollution.  If you said, “We should let first-time pollution lawbreakers of...

A Package of Populist Deregulation

The best deregulation lacks popular appeal.  Deregulation of immigration is unpopular.  Deregulation of housing is unpopular.  Deregulation of labor markets is unpopular.

But when the stars align, specific forms of deregulation become potentially popular.  All you need is close the deal is some brash populists to enthusiastically tell the masses what they’re ready to enthusiastically hear.

Despite the rising fashion of “national conservatism” among the right, I suspect that the stars for America...

The Two-Front War on Techtopia

I may have a perfect betting record, but six years ago I made a big generalization that almost instantly blew up in my face.

In my youth, I saw Industrial Organization as the heart of our secular religion.  My history textbooks loudly and repeatedly decried “monopoly”; teachers, peers, and parents echoed their complaints.  Since the late-90s, however, such complaints have faded from public discourse.  The reason isn’t that plausible examples of monopolies have vanished.  If anything, firms that ...

Politics is Cruelty

In his magisterial Making Comics, Scott McCloud provides a profound exploration of human emotions.  Anatomically speaking, there really are exactly six primary emotions: anger, disgust, fear, joy, sadness, and surprise.  McCloud even lists all of the facial muscles involved, but his visuals speak a thousand words each.

The six primary emotions, like the six primary colors, can all be combined.  You can combine joy and fear to get “desperation.”  You can combine joy and sadness to get “faint hop...

My Upside of Covid

Covid has killed millions, and trampled the freedom of billions.  For me, the main horror has been the paranoid reaction to the disease, rather than the disease itself.  Much of the social life I built for myself before Covid evaporated during 2020.  But since this is Thanksgiving Week, I’m reflecting on all the ways that my life has improved since Covid.  And the list is not short.   Necessity is the mother of invention – and never before have I felt such an urgent need to reinvent my life.

Her...

“I Have Not Assumed Libertarianism”

Like The Problem of Political Authority, Huemer’s Justice before the Law begins with common-sense moral premises, yet reaches radical libertarian conclusions.  A tall order?  Indeed, but he delivers.  The key passage:

One might be tempted to object that my critique of allegedly unjust laws presupposes a controversial, libertarian political ideology. For I have seemingly assumed that the only legitimate function of law is to protect individual rights, an assumption rejected by other ideologies. O...

The Toughest Generation?

There should be a science of discontent. People need hard times and oppression to develop psychic muscles.

— Frank Herbert, Dune

 

Haidt and Lukianoff’s The Coddling of the American Mind famously argues that coddling is bad for kids.  As Haidt states elsewhere:

Children’s social and emotional abilities are as antifragile as their immune systems. If we overprotect kids and keep them “safe” from unpleasant social situations and negative emotions, we deprive them of the challenges and opportunities...

Climate Shock Bet: Reply to Reeves

Here’s my point-by-point reply to Daniel Reeves.  He’s in blockquotes; I’m not.

Daniel gets the last word if he wants it!

Bryan seems to start by acknowledging that 6 degrees of warming (we’re approaching 1 degree so far, for those just tuning in) would be devastating and that a 10% chance of that by the end of the century warrants mitigation efforts. He even acknowledges that — warming being proportional to cumulative historical emissions — we can’t afford to wait.

Not really.  My actual view...