Bryan Caplan's Blog, page 4

A Discriminating Exception

Last month, I put the following on my list of potentially popular deregulations:

Create an ironclad free speech limitation on discrimination law, which explicitly includes both (a) political speech, and (b) jokes.  Along the lines of, “Expression of political opinions or jokes by co-workers, managers, or owners are Constitutionally protected free speech and can never be treated as evidence of discrimination or a hostile workplace environment.”

“Potentially” is of course the key word.  I’m ...

Escalation and Obedience

Airports and airlines, governed by federal law, never relaxed their mask mandate, even for the fully vaccinated.  Yet if you actually fly nowadays, you’ll notice plenty of scofflaws on the ground and in the sky.

Which raises a big question: What exactly is the punishment for failing to wear a mask?

Until you board the plane, the punishment is simply: An authority orders you to put on your mask.  Once they’re out of sight, you can safely remove your mask until another authority orders you to put ...

Overcoming Bias Is the Mother of Science

“Science is prediction.”  Not quite true, but still deeply insightful.  Especially when you remember that “Science is prediction” doesn’t mean a prediction that you whisper to yourself.  “Science is prediction” means a public prediction.  You have to shout it from the rooftops, in advance.

When Einstein publicly predicted a specific anomaly in the deflection of light during a solar eclipse – and turned out to be exactly right – it was awesome.  Einstein loudly said exactly what was going to happ...

Radical Libertarian Economics in Search of a Title

What’s a good book title for a hard-line Caplanian defense of laissez-faire, centering around the following theses?

1. Textbook complaints about free markets – externalities, monopoly, imperfect information – are overblown in theory, and even more overblown in practice.

2. Real-world markets deliver most of the textbook benefits of perfect competition, PLUS additional big benefits that aren’t in standard models.

3. Real-world government policies are only marginally connected to the textbook co...

Should You Trust the Local Left?

Glenn Youngkin, Virginia’s new governor-elect plans to end the state-level mask mandate, but will not impose a mandate ban on localities:

After his inaugural ceremony on Jan. 15, Youngkin said he will not mandate masks and vaccines but–unlike some Republican governors–he will not attempt to block localities from implementing their own requirements.

“Localities are going to have to make decisions the way the law works and that is going to be up to individual decisions but, again, from the governo...

Measuring Overreaction

Scott Sumner is happy to admit that we’ve overreacted to Covid, but presents the overreaction as relatively mild:

Pundits often criticize the US government for overreacting to Covid, especially the excessive mandates for masks, vaccines, etc. I share their concern. But I also wonder where some of these people have been. On a list of regulatory overreaction, these mandates don’t even make my “top 100”. For decades, overreaction to tiny safety risks has been getting worse, with no end in sight....

Ideological Turing Test Makes the House of Lords

Seriously, via my John Locke Institute Summer School colleague Lord Dan Hannan:

Over the summer I participated in teaching in a school, appropriately called the John Locke Institute. Rather like what the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Birmingham was describing in his home city, it tries to teach young people the idea of what the administrators of the course call “generous listening”. It is a lovely phrase. Generous listening means not waiting, patiently or impatiently, for the other perso...

Freiman’s Asymmetries

Some wisdom from Chris Freiman, reposted with his permission.

Somewhat related to my recent piece on motivated reasoning about deterrence.

I’ve noticed a bunch of suspiciously convenient asymmetries in influence lately. That is, people tend to believe that they are influential when that would produce the results they want and believe that they aren’t influential when influence would produce results they don’t want. Two examples:

1) People think the example they set by voting or eating vegan wil...

Privatize Archaeology!

When I was touring Mexico last year, my family stayed at a virtually vacant hotel on a vast estate.  The hospitable staff, with little to do thanks to Covid, gave us a grand tour of the grounds.  Along the way, they pointed out a bunch of minor Mayan artifacts.  And in hushed tones, they asked us not to alert the authorities.  If the government of Mexico knew they had artifacts, they might be legally seized.  Or worse.

Nor is Mexico especially harsh.  Around the world, governments claim ownershi...

Mac Donald on Wikipedia’s Gender Bias

Heather Mac Donald’s 2011 piece on Wikipedia’s gender bias only makes Wikipedia as an afterthought.  But it should have been the heart of the article.  Highlights:

Most observers blame media gender imbalances on “gatekeeper biases,” but the actual bias goes the other way:

The idea that these gender imbalances represent gatekeeper bias was demonstrably false even before the Wiki reality check. Any female writer or speaker who is not painfully aware of the many instances in which she has been incl...