Bryan Caplan's Blog, page 17

Housing Deregulation: Reverse Musical Chairs

One of the main problems with selling housing deregulation is the perception that new construction “only benefits the rich.”  Rich developers of course, but also rich home-buyers.  It’s easy to see where casual observers get this idea.  New housing is usually nice housing, because over time technology improves and capital depreciates.  Since richer people are more willing to pay the upcharge for nicer housing, the future residents of new construction are usually well-to-do.

So what do casual obs...

SDB and Me: An Autobiographical Exploration

Now here’s the story of how Social Desirability Bias has haunted my life.

The two earliest centers of Social Desirability Bias in my life were Beckford Elementary and Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic church.  In school, they told us an endless stream of absurdities – things like, “We’re all going to be great at X!,” “We all take great pride in our school!,” “No one works harder than our teachers,” and so on.  I don’t think it bothered me at first.  But even in kindergarten, I couldn’t help but notic...

I’m Teaching at the 2021 John Locke Summer School

I never worked harder than I did in the summer of 2016 at the John Locke Institute‘s summer seminars in France.  One day I gave nine hour-long lectures, and had several more hours interacting with students throughout the day.  But it was great fun; the students were full of curiosity and enthusiasm, and candor ran high.  And the reason I gave so many lectures was that every class was very small – often just five students.

This year, COVID policy permitting, I’m rejoining the John Locke Institute...

Write Your SDB Autobiography

The most neglected psychological phenomenon in the world has a name, and that name is Social Desirability Bias.  Long story short: When the truth is ugly, people lie – and get angry at those who refuse to play along.  When the dosage gets high enough, lies and anger morph into self-righteous absurdity.  SDB illuminates a wide range of issues: diction, demagoguery, public goods theory, intelligence research, the rhetoric of freedom, abortion, vegetarianism, self-help, and much more.

A while back,...

The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism Book Club Round-Up

Thanks to everyone who participated in the Orwell Book Club.  Here’s the full chronology.

Announcement

Update

Part 1

Commentary on Part 1

Part 2

Commentary on Part 2

Part 3

Commentary on Part 3

Part 4

Commentary on Part 4

Part 5

Commentary on Part 5

Part 6

Commentary on Part 6

Final Thoughts

Postscript

The post The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism Book Club Round-Up appeared first on Econlib.

Wiblin, Probability, and Nuclear War

Here’s a guest post from the noble Rob Wiblin of 80,000 Hours.  Posted with Rob’s permission.

I’ve periodically read commenters online say that with random unprecedented events (e.g. a total nuclear war) one can’t give meaningful Bayesian probabilities and therefore the probability of e.g. a nuclear war over the next 100 years is 50/50.

Tabarrok got this from many people in response to his series of blog posts on the likelihood of nuclear war. It’s hard to believe these people are serious, but ...

Skipping Steps: A Homeschooling Dialogue

A true homeschooling conversation between me and my son, lightly edited.  He’s eleven and I’m teaching him algebra.

Father: Sorry, you got another problem wrong.  Do you know why?

Son: [aggravated silence]

Father: Because you skipped steps!

Son: [further silence]

Father: Is it ever OK to skip steps?

Son: No.

Father: Wrong!  It is OK to skip steps… when you are a master.

Son: And I’m not a master.

Father: You are not yet a master.  Do you know how you become a master?

Son: No.

Father: By followin...

COVID vs. SIVH

The Self-Interest Voter Hypothesis, or SIVH, claims that individuals’ political views are closely based on their objective self-interest.  Despite its popularity, the evidence is strongly against it.  If the SIVH were true, for example, income would be an excellent predictor of party identification.  In reality, the correlation between the two is near-zero.  People don’t vote for the party that gives them a better balance sheet; they vote for the party that speaks to their ideals.

Still, you may...

Fear Me Not! I Got My COVID Vaccine.

Last Monday, I got my COVID vaccine; the full effects should be kicking in soon.  How should I change my behavior?  How should anyone?

One popular answer is: Not at all.  Why not?  The top reason I’ve heard is: Because even those of us who have been vaccinated can’t be absolutely sure we won’t be infected – or spread infection to others.  Some use the same reasoning to argue that people who have recovered from COVID shouldn’t change their behavior either.  As immunologist Alexander Sette puts it...

Postscript: Orwell for Socialism

[Scroll to the end for a couple final reactions to comments .]

In a reflective moment, George Orwell wrote, “Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand it.”  Yet if you actually read his oeuvre, you’ll find a striking disparity: Orwell’s anti-totalitarian writing is massive, but his pro-socialist writing is wafer thin.  As far as I know, the closest thing Orwell produces...