Wiblin, Probability, and Nuclear War

Here’s a guest post from the noble Rob Wiblin of 80,000 Hours.  Posted with Rob’s permission.

I’ve periodically read commenters online say that with random unprecedented events (e.g. a total nuclear war) one can’t give meaningful Bayesian probabilities and therefore the probability of e.g. a nuclear war over the next 100 years is 50/50.

Tabarrok got this from many people in response to his series of blog posts on the likelihood of nuclear war. It’s hard to believe these people are serious, but ...