Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 67

Brexit Negotiations: The Path To the Vassal State

After two major government meetings, of the Brexit Cabinet and the full Cabinet, we are back in the old quagmire of GB seeking to negotiate something which  has already been signed away and because the EU will never agree anyway.

To get the Ireland deal we have agreed that if no Brexit deal is fixed, we will synch our regulations to match those of the EU, so that we can have open borders between Ireland and GB and GB and the EU.  We will, in all but name, continue to be Europeans and will remain part of our heritage of the European family.  To get any other deal we will have to remain in the customs union and single market. Anything else will for sure cost us, for decades, much more than the gains promised us by the fraudster Brexiteers.

For ordinary people this is fine, because it will mean that there will be no economic of social disadvantages and life as we know it will carry on. The only difference is that for most practical purposes we will be governed from Brussels, because Whitehall will no longer have a seat at the table which makes the rules, or judges among the courts which enforce them.  Those rules will inform most aspects of daily life. This could be a blessing owing to the appalling quality of our own governments of many years.

But for the political class it is a catastrophe, stripping them of almost all their power. When it becomes clear to everybody that the real choice is between social isolation with economic ruin, or a subject state of a mighty Europe dominated by France and Germany, Brexit will come under attack from all wings and persuasions for differing but valid reasons and it will implode.

As we have said over and over. In the terms in which it was offered, it was never there.

Is The Trump Russia Collusion Investigation Collapsing?

Yes is the answer. It may literally implode or it may fizzle out, but it is over. There are several reasons. The first and foremost is that whatever you think about Trump, the collusion concept was ridiculous, because it would be impossible to prove, was clearly a desperate attempt to derail the Trump Presidency at it most ambitious and, if that failed, to hobble Trump’s declared intention of improving relations with Russia. Recently this Blog said Trump would have to stand and fight. Well he has. But first let us deal with the Democrats.

Aghast at losing against a candidate they took for a fool and a funny, they were determined to get their own back for the perceived conspiracy to expose Hilary’s email problems. So the notion that Trump was too close to Russia and his campaign had somehow plotted something which was illegal took hold. But after spending a lot of tax dollars, all Mueller has to show is a few miscreants whose only crime, if it can be called that by people with time to waste, is to tell lies to investigators.

Paradoxically the Democrats have done rather well in recent elections in New Jersey, Virginia and Alabama, winning all of them. Seeing they are back in the game with real chances of big gains in 2018, they realise they have to start talking about stuff which Americans care about, like jobs, healthcare and taxes. Wasting tax dollars on a pointless investigation will not sit well with voters. It is obvious to everyone that Trump is closer to Russia than previous incumbents. He has been there with his beauty pageant, tried to build a hotel there, and according to well founded rumour, has quite a lot of Russian capital funding his property empire.

Exasperated at the inability to get on with his agenda, Trump has taken a much more proactive position. First Putin astonishes the world by singing Trump’s praises to the rooftops in his annual press conference. Next Trump phones him (they are on first name terms) to thank him for his support and discuss how to deal with Kim Jong Un. Days later Putin phones Trump to thank him for CIA intelligence sharing which thwarted a plot to blow up a St Petersburg church whilst people were inside at a service. A gang of alleged IS style terrorists is arrested in front of news feed cameras recording the whole thing.

In this carefully orchestrated set of exchanges Trump has said to America, yes I am on good terms with Putin, so what? From me you also get tax cuts, jobs, infrastructure development, a booming stock market, immigration controls etc. To spike the Democrats rusting guns he will add some stuff about Russia and China trying to challenge America on the world stage, which will bolster his case for mega spend on the military. Which is what he wants just in case anybody thinks for one teeny moment that America is not First.

Set against all that Mueller’s show is plain silly. Even the Democrats can see that.

Brexit Mandate: What Is It?

A minority of voters, perhaps 20%, voted to leave the EU because they dislike foreigners, they distrust the continent and they wanted to cut adrift from the European family no matter what the cost and disadvantage to Britain. In their eyes to be poor is a price worth paying to be pure.

But they provide no democratic mandate for Brexit. That came from a larger minority who took on board promises of lower immigration leading to more prosperity, jobs and money for public services, as offered with abandon and scarce reference to truth by the Leave campaign. Combined with the haters this hopeful minority became a majority.

Now May has to deliver not to a mandate of Brexit at any cost, but Brexit which makes life better for all. Nothing less will do, because to fail would be to shatter all semblance of trust in politicians. Or she has to come clean, declare it impossible and call the whole thing off. But the days of rhetoric and fluffy articles in the Sunday papers, not one but two, while her Foreign Secretary writes the opposite in a third, are well and truly over. She says she will get on with the job. Agree. As defined above. If she cannot get on with that it is time to get out.

Funding A Just Society: This Can Wait No Longer

Austerity began in 2010 to achieve certain well defined goals within a certain time frame. All of these were missed. Yet austerity carried on. And on. And on.

Whilst the political class is debauching on Brexit, much of which is a fantasy of its own making, a new economic reality is seeping into every nook and cranny of national life. There is just not enough money in the system to pay for anything to be done properly. No matter whether you look at education, health, social care, mental health, housing, power generation, prisons, the justice system, the police, on it goes with a list so long it never ends. To this we can now add defence.

We have two giant aircraft carriers, already described by Putin as easy targets to destroy, not an idle claim by any familiar with Russia’s new smart defence capability. These vessels will have no planes for years because we could not afford them and will not be guarded by enough combat resources on the high seas because the assets designed to protect them have malfunctions in their systems.

The British active and functional fleet is now so small that it is little better than a regatta, the army is smaller than that deployed by the Confederates at Gettysburg and much smaller than the Union force at that epic engagement.There is confusion in Whitehall as to whether we need to concentrate on the defence of these islands making an attack upon us too tough a nut to crack, or whether we should be projecting some global power ambitions, which not only are unrealistic but which have little public backing and to fund which government coffers are empty.

This combination of real and pressing financial issues in all these spheres and more cannot be resolved without a major economic reboot. Austerity can be effective for up to two years, but after that it becomes a malignant cancer from which only the celebrity class and the greedy can escape. The recent budget was little more than tinkering at the margins, enough to avert an obvious crisis, but not enough to bring relief. Until this government stops rowing about Brexit and applies its mind to something which will not go away, it has no long term future. Neither has Brexit.

Can May Do A Corbyn?

Hardly more than days ago May was near the bottom of a slippery slope down which she had been sliding since her calamitous election debacle. A divided cabinet with leadership contenders following their own agenda in defiance of hers. On issues of policy her hands were tied by Brexiteer zealots and, via the DUP, Protestant ideologues. Finally there was the agreement which collapsed just as everyone was ready to sign. Oh Dear.

But then the plane dash in the small hours to a dawn breakfast and triumph nobody believed possible. Wow what a cliffhanger, if not over the cliff. But the drama was not over. Next came a government defeat. But was it?  Now that the Commons has to approve the terms, hard Brexit is belly up, because there is nothing like a majority in favour of such a barmy course. So a jaunty May returned to Brussels and appeared at dinner to warm applause. They had seen for months a loser. Now she came back a fighter. One who could lead and might win. So Europe backs her.

Now for the question I started with. Can she do a Corbyn? Yes, but only if she is willing to take on the wreckers in her party, the hard Brexiteers, and crush them out of sight. Then the country could indeed rise up and sing ‘Oh Theresa May’.

But until those misguided hard Brexit Tories, a noisy minority with less power than they think, who believe the chaos they are creating is better than a sane future as part of the European family, are faced down and sidelined, May will be at risk.

 

May’s Defeat

Coming on top of her perceived success the week before, the misjudgments by Tory Party managers which led to last night’s game changer, are par for the course of this ill starred administration. It will take some of the shine off May as she appears in Brussels today, as will the ill judged comments of the Brexit Secretary earlier, that the agreement she signed held no legal force and could, and might, be abandoned.

This is all symptomatic of the truth now dawning that Brexit, in the terms in which it was offered and for which a mandate is claimed, was never available and cannot be delivered. It underscores the fact that any form of hard Brexit would never get through Parliament and that in a true democracy voters should be given a second chance and have the right to change their minds. In truth it would save endless argument, time and worry, which is already blighting people’s lives and damaging the economy, to ask for the Article 50 letter to be returned, so that we can get on with a future which is real, available and good for everyone.

Republican Defeat: Relief In Washington

I do not agree with those commentators who assert that the defeat of Roy Moore is a setback for Trump. Had that man been elected it would have been a disaster for the Republican party and the Presidency. At the same time had Trump not endorsed Moore, activists in Alabama would have blamed their defeat on the President. As it is the blow is down to them and their ridiculous candidate and that is the end of it.

However the loss of the Senate seat itself may prove a bigger setback than at first it appears.  Coming on top of the losses in New Jersey and Virginia and the poll ratings which consistently show most Americans against Trump, even if his base remains steady, the perception can grow that Trump is a loser. That would be difficult for Trump to handle. He does not do losing. And it will embolden the Democrats in the 2018 races for the House and Senate, both of which are within their reach on a high turnout in urban and suburban America. Much depends on the tax reforms producing more good jobs. If that fails Trump is done for.

Jerusalem: Has Trump Miscalculated?

Before the well trailed announcement based on his campaign promise to recognise Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, there were hints and briefings from his administration that although there would be some noise there would also be support. People might now ask where?

The US is isolated to a minority of one on the Security Council, not even ever faithful GB is in line with it, and all governments across the Arab world, including the most faithful American allies, have lined up to condemn. It is of course a breach of international law and in violation of various UN resolutions. America is powerful enough militarily to cope with all this, but not powerful enough geo-politically to do so in the long term.

Therefore we await the masterstroke. Having shaken up the box, so to speak, comes the announcement of a really striking peace plan that stops the noise and gets people talking with real hopes of a Camp David style outcome. At least we assume this must surely be so.

Is it?

May: Triumph or Humiliation?

Well, that depends how you look at it. It was an achievement  with few equals if you consider that she not only had to satisfy a Brussels machine unwilling or indeed unable to give much away, her own Cabinet which is split in every direction and her own party which is split on the fundamentals of Brexit, but also her weird BFFs, the Ulster Unionists, who have always carried principles shared by few others and an ideology entirely their own, to extraordinary lengths. So to get all of those discordant voices to sing the same note, on the same day at the same hour (a rather early one) was certainly a triumph.

But if, as will become clear when the text of the document is studied at leisure, you notice that the terms she signed up to were the same, almost, as the ones she was offered on the first day  of Stage One and, moreover, if you also grasp that the Ireland deal commits the whole UK to the same rules and regulations as the EU single market and customs union whatever nomme de plume of Brexit is finally signed up to, you will see it as a humiliation for the beleaguered May and a whopping custard pie moment for the hard Brexiteers.

And if, like this Blog, you oppose the Brexit folly in all its forms hook, line and sinker, you will pour yourself a drink and enjoy a purr of satisfaction. For this deal is the softest kind of Brexit, which is an absorbing word play for politicians, but for everybody else the same as no Brexit at all.

And when the moment comes and patience runs out, it will all be reversed at the stroke of rational pen.We will be back where we belong at the centre of the European family, of which we are and always have been, an integral and worthy part.

 

Brexit Chaos: Is the Government Imploding?

It might be. What is certain is that it is not governing. It is in two fights; for its own survival and for the survival of Brexit. Let us look at each, starting with Brexit.

Outside the government there is now a general consensus in the UK as a whole, in parliament and in the EU as a whole, that the only way to avoid serious economic damage to both the UK and the EU from Brexit, is that membership of the customs union and the single market continue. This includes the continuing integrity of the United Kingdom. Because any attempt to offer a separate status to NI which did not cover the rest of the UK would, as we saw through the deadlock of negotiations on Monday last, be unacceptable to the DUP, which props up the government. It would also provoke a demand for the same from Scotland, Wales and London.

Conversely any attempt by May to offer exactly that equivalence, or whatever word you want to use, of regulation between all parts of the UK and the EU, would provoke outright hostility from hard Brexiteers and Cabinet resignations. In other words May is cornered. There are three immediate prospects. The first is a fudge sufficient to enable negotiations about trade to begin and hold the May government together, but, like all fudges, this will simply defer the day of reckoning. The second is the collapse of the negotiations, leading to a policy of a hard Brexit. Both of those will eventually lead to the collapse of the May government anyway and with that, of Brexit itself.

Nobody bothered to think through or investigate the feasibility of Britain’s exit from the unification of every strand of national life within the EU. Of course it could be done but the costs and complexities are way beyond anything anybody is willing to pay or undertake. Brexit, in the terms upon which people were offered it in the referendum and by a narrow majority backed, was never in reality there.  Had the real thing been offered it would have been overwhelmingly rejected. So the trumpeted mandate for Brexit was, in truth, a con. Eventually cons are caught out. Truth, one way or another, has an enduring capacity to win through.