Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 68

Jerusalem : Trump Had No Choice

The news that Trump is about to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel should surprise no one. He promised this in his campaign and thus bought himself support from the Jewish lobby, which had fallen out badly with Obama. If it was promised it must be delivered whether you like the policy or not. Because what undermines democracy, much more than foreign hackers, fake news and leaks of every sort and kind, is the now widespread practice of campaign promises which are not delivered because they were not meant to be, cannot be, or were undeliverable from the very beginning. It is this form of political corruption and it is the untrustworthy politician who undermines democracy. Nothing else can, because democracy is too strong.

There will be a lot of protests and perhaps some violence, but actually little will change because Jerusalem has been operating as the Israeli capital for years. It is only the dance of veils, which is the best way to describe so much diplomacy today, that pretends the capital is still Tel Aviv. And this pretense has failed to advance the peace process in this number one hotspot one iota. So it can hardly matter to abandon it.

At one level Trump looks to be on a bit of a roll with things falling into place. He has at last advanced the tax cut legislation to the point when soon he will have something to sign, he has won his travel ban judgement in the Supreme Court and he looks like winning the Senate seat in Alabama, even by a candidate with social and religious attitudes of medieval vintage and morals alleged to involve pedophilia. The evident tension between the White House and the State Department is rumoured to be near resolution with the upcoming departure, on friendly terms, of Rex Tillerson and his replacement with Mike Pompeo. That would help to get more of the ducks of this somewhat wayward administration, in a row. All of this is set down as a political assessment. It is not about whether you approve or oppose any of it.

But there is of course that elephant in the room. The Russia investigation. This is not quite what it seems and much deeper than it looks. It is politically motivated and legally driven. So far  only the outriders have been picked off. But the circle is closing. Sooner or later Trump will have to stand and fight. Then it will be seen that the collusion investigation is a kind of smokescreen. What really matters is the secrets in Deutsche Bank and their links to the Kremlin. It is upon the outcome of that box being opened that Trump’s survival depends.

 

Brexit Chaos: Worse To Come

For the Tories to join with the DUP to prop up their government was to sup with the devil. Now comes the food poisoning of that tainted meal. It is now becoming clear that for nearly half a century the nations of Europe have harmonised huge swathes of domestic, business, educational, environmental, security, human rights, health and safety and employment laws and regulations so that the whole Union works as one seamless country.

What the Ireland crisis, a crisis within the Brexit crisis, reveals is a microcosm of the larger picture. If you try to impose barriers the economic and social cost is potentially catastrophic. If you agree not to, the ideologues rise up, preferring to wreck their country rather than agree to a sensible compromise. And if they had agreed then London, Scotland and Wales would have demanded the same treatment.

Ireland is like the UK. Almost everything we do depends on frictionless borders with Europe, especially food for the table and supply chains for industry. So, just as we can see that to keep Ireland, North and the Republic, at peace and in prosperity, they both have to be in the Customs Union and the Single Market, so it is the case for the UK as a whole. And the price for that will demand a status, for all practical purposes, the same as we have now. Except in future we will have no say on how the whole thing is run and under what rules. So why not stay as we are?

The alternative is to plunge off the cliff with no deal. Only crackpots think that a good idea. There is no majority in Parliament or in any of the nations of the UK for it. So the plain fact is that sooner or later Brexit will be over. How and when that will happen is not yet clear, but happen it will. In the end the British people may be many things but we are not stupid.

Social Mobility: What Is Needed

It is hardly surprising that a spat has broken out between the members of the Social Mobility Commission and the government. It is indeed the case that there is a gap between May’s rhetoric, often lofty and inspirational, and the delivery of her aspirations. On everything. So social mobility will have have to take its place in a lengthening queue in which Brexit, as Alan Milburn points out, has elbowed everything else aside.

This blog has for long railed against the Whitehall mania for solving problems by appointing quangos to find answers. This does not work, costs untold billions and achieves next to nothing. What it does do is let the civil service and its political masters off the hook for issues which are their responsibility and theirs alone. So this Social Mobility Commission drama is of little interest here.

What is of interest is the issue. Social mobility has become the outcome of celebrity rather than effort, because too few are able to access the opportunities their parents and grandparents enjoyed in the post war era, when real improvement came about at all levels with opportunities for life enhancing progress, whichever party was in power. That was down to one thing. The money was made available for the job. Of course it was a lot less money in cash terms than today but health, education, training and career options were right there for the asking and properly funded. So was affordable housing.

However many commissions are appointed, brimming with however many brilliant minds and worthy ambitions, nothing can happen until somebody sorts out the economy, stricken by chronic austerity and mounting Brexit chaos.

Trump’s Twitter Storm

It was a massive act of poor judgment for Trump to retweet the fake videos of the far right group Britain First. First and foremost this organisation is one of which no country in its right mind could be proud. So much has been said of it that this blog has nothing more to add. But most of all because this organisation is British, not American, and this kind of comment is fine if the President wants to encourage hate and division in his own country, but bang out of order by every diplomatic rule in the book, for him to encourage it in ours. There is universal outrage and condemnation all across the country and from all political parties.

Trump is supposed to be Britain’s closest ally. Yet his vanity is so pricked by May’s restrained criticism of him for his blunder that he compounds it with an impertinent follow up Tweet offering her gratuitous advice of how to lead her country. May has again repeated her criticism, whilst reminding everyone that there is more to America than Trump. This is the problem.

After a refreshingly different beginning his presidency is turning out to be plain awful. Most Americans agree. His approval ratings are lower than ever. This is not because of his tweets, although they do not help. It is because he looks like a windbag and self publicist in love with himself who cannot deliver. Time will tell us whether that harsh assessment is right or not. Time, with this type of person, never fails to deliver its verdict.

We watch and wait.

 

Trump’s Twitter Blunder

As readers know this Blog predicted a Trump win and has refrained from the wholesale condemnation of this presidency by commentators from the liberal left, with which it usually identifies. When I think he is on the right track I support him. But this time he has entirely left the rails of acceptability. Of course it is deeply shocking that he admires the extremist propaganda of a political organisation widely regarded as repugnant by the vast majority of our country.

But what is wholly absurd is the idea that he should engage overtly in the domestic politics of an ally. Or put another way if Theresa May, in her capacity of UK Prime Minister, were to re-tweet inflammatory messages from leftist organisations in the US opposed to Trump, the White House, with justification, would be outraged.

It is these sort of impetuous blunders that do more to undermine the Trump presidency than any issues of policy. Which makes them all the more inexplicable.

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Brexit Papers: Demand Full Disclosure

There is a big row going on between the government and parliament about the proper disclosure of apparently embarrassing information revealed in a process of assessing the impact of Brexit on 50 sectors of the economy. Embarrassing because it reveals just how damaging this foolhardy adventure will prove to be to the lives of ordinary people. There is another interpretation for the lack of output; there is none because no proper survey was carried out.

Everywhere outside Whitehall it is becoming quite clear that the promoters of Brexit had little idea of the detailed consequences of their ambition nor the vast legal and administrative headache which would result. That in turn leads to costs they had never imagined. What this proves is that we are caught in a national emergency in which it is no longer a matter of in or out, but of survival without having to go through an economic trauma greater than that suffered through cost of fighting WWII. That poses the question, asked with increasing frequency both here and in the EU, do we have to do this?

Defenders of this folly claim there is a mandate from the British people which must be fulfilled. That is nonsense. Had the facts been fairly put to the electorate by both sides, but in particular by Leave with its wild claims and promises, there is absolutely no doubt that while a sizable minority would have stayed with Brexit, the majority would have gone for Remain. The mandate is entirely blown. What is required now is common sense upholding the national interest. That means asking for the infamous Article 50 letter to be returned. Then all of the EU, including the UK, can relax and get on with its collective day.

A Happy Couple

My father was a staunch supporter of King Edward VIII and Mrs. Simpson. He believed an American Queen would be the best thing that could happen to GB in the troubled 1930s. But it was not to be because she was divorced. So had my father been alive today (he would be 124) he would have rejoiced at today’s news that Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are to marry. All those prejudices of the past are cast aside and the happy couple will be the cutting edge of the Royal modernisation, which is constantly in force, but which under the influence of Princes William and Harry is gathering greater momentum. This Blog joins the whole country in wishing them every happiness. Even famous republicans are joining in.

 

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