Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 66

Trump Visit Off: The Real Reason?

With the unique dynamics of the Trump presidency we will never know. Certainly there is much to criticise about the decision to build a fortress style new U.S. embassy off the beaten track south of the Thames at Nine Elms. The money and the location should both have been a no no at every level, so on those grounds no wonder Trump does not want to cut the ribbon. Even the lure of lunch with the Queen, a special honour for a working rather than State Visit, was evidently not enough.

But then again the UK is Washington’s closest ally. But is it? Trump is by far the most unpopular President, in the UK, to occupy the White House since anyone here took an interest in who the American president actually was. There would undoubtedly be hostile demonstrations which would be widely reported across world media, especially social media. The two countries are at odds over Climate Change, Jerusalem and Iran. The UK has sided with the EU against the US on all three. Then there was the outcry over the re-tweet and the double slap down from May. Only yesterday the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Britain and the EU met with their Iranian counterpart to reaffirm their support for the Iran nuclear deal and urging Trump to do the same. At the press conference afterwards Boris Johnson not only backed the deal, but challenged the US to come up with a better and acceptable alternative if it did not like it. This is a new kind of special relationship. One in which the UK is willing to oppose the US, not just once, but three times on the trot. And not just in private, but in the glare of publicity on the world stage.

Clearly this cannot be satisfactory and there are fences to mend. When the repair process will start depends on Trump. In an election year when much depends on the outcome of the mid-terms in November, Trump will do nothing to give Democrats ammunition to advance in the polls. In his hypersensitive image consciousness, angry crowds waving placards ‘Trump Go Home’ would not be good. In truth I doubt the average American voter would care tuppence or see the clips. The State Visit remains on the agenda for sometime, but sometime is not yet.

Trump v Bannon: A New West Wing Drama

It is no exaggeration to say that the world is now gripped with a new twist in the story of Donald Trump, as a consequence of alleged disclosures upcoming in a new book by Michael Wolff. A big public row has broken out between Steve Bannon and his former boss, the details of which are wall to wall on international media and do not need to be repeated here.

I have no means of knowing how much of the book is true and how much is rubbish. Maybe all one or the other, but more likely a mix. I have never subscribed to the idea of collusion with Russia, nor do I think meeting with them can be treason, unless there is something medieval about the US Constitution which I have missed. But I have all along said that there is a strong possibility of Russian capital funding parts of the Trump empire. This is not illegal but it might not sit well with the American public in the present climate. However, a new thought has emerged based upon comments from several sources. Russia has been subject to sanctions since the Crimea returned to the Russian Federation, a miscalculation by the Western promoters of the overthrow of the Russia leaning Kiev government in 2014.

If money laundering to circumvent those sanctions was used to get funding from its Russian source to its destination in a Trump corporation and that is proved, the Trump presidency will end quite suddenly. If not all the latest drama is but another Twitter storm.

GB 2018: Where Exactly Are We?

We are in a country in which when it snows everything stops, the NHS goes into a crisis if people fall ill, we vote for Brexit without knowing what it involves, we tell public servants they can only have a 1% pay rise but we put up season tickets on the trains by over 3%, we have never had so many people employed, but they earn less than they did ten years ago, our new warships either leak at sea or suffer catastrophic power failures in combat mode, the list goes on and on.

But there is change coming. Because never before have so many people under forty come together in common purpose to bring about a new and different society, in which people work together for the common good, things function in all weather, illness is treated in timely fashion, housing is plentiful and affordable, the rich no longer prosper by milking the poor, this list goes on and on, too, and then on even longer.

That is why this Blog is optimistic for the future of our United Kingdom in 2018. The night of austerity, greed and me first is over. The dawn of better times is breaking. We must watch for signs of light upon the horizon. Among the first may be the flash of the divided Tory government, split from top to bottom on Brexit and austerity,  breaking up.

 

A Happy New Year To All Readers

This blog returns from  the holiday break with a few thoughts for 2018.

North Korea  Kim Jon Un has declared in his New Year message that his country now has intercontinental nuclear armed missiles which can strike anywhere in the US. He also says that he will never use them to attack in a first strike, they are there to deter. He offers negotiations from a position of strength, with improved relations with South Korea, including a possible N.K Team appearance at the Winter Olympics. Whether he has jumped forward from reality to claim something which has not yet quite happened is not important. He is very close and by the time the rest of the world, led by the US, has huffed and puffed, he will have all the systems ready to go.

This means that the US will have to sit down and talk to a nuclear capable country which is not going to give up what it sees as a guarantee that it will not be subject to a surprise attack. North Korea is not Iran, which was working towards nuclear capability. It is threshold, or actually, capable now. The conversation will be about a permanent peace on the Korean peninsular, demilitarization, force reductions, US pull back, human rights, ending sanctions, you name it, the list will be long. But giving up its deterrent capability will not be on it.

How America got to this point is an interesting subject for discussion. But it matters not, because we are where we are. Had America spent less time lecturing and more time thinking, where we are might be a better place.

Brexit  Whatever may be said by politicians, spinners and wishful thinkers, this project is now in trouble. There is a complete disconnect between what the government says it will achieve, what the Leave campaign promised and what the EU will agree to. GB thinks the economic self interest will finally trump political considerations and the EU will concede key issues in GB’s favour. This is tripe. The EU puts politics above everything, its unity is paramount, nothing will be allowed to threaten the current and future stability and unity of the EU and if that means the loss of all trade with GB so be it. It has agreed its terms and only at the margin will they be varied.  Just like Phase One.

When the truth dawns and the terms are clear, hard Brexit will simply not be acceptable to the majority in parliament or to voters in the country. A soft Brexit would leave the UK subject to all the rules and enjoying all the benefits much as now, but without a seat at the ruling table. So we will abandon the project and stay. Either way the outcome is the same.

Populism and Democracy

There has been leaned comment about the wave of populism and the future of democracy in the run up to the close of the somewhat tumultuous political story of 2017. This blog does not see a threat to democracy, but it does see the demise of career politicians who promise, mislead and fail to deliver. People are now connected to each other in a way unimagined before. They share news from source and debate among themselves desired outcomes. They do not depend on the media or the political machines for any of it. They know what they want. They will vote for politicians who claim they can deliver and they will stay on their backs until they do. It is a different sort of democracy, but very much better.

Snow and Ice? Get a Grip!

Just breaking into holiday time off to say that if this country thinks it is going to charge through Brexit into a big new world as a powerhouse nation, we cannot go on having a national transport collapse every time it snows or freezes. We have to get past this terrible failure to invest, plan , prepare and rehearse, so that when the moment comes, people are not left sleeping on the floors of airports or trapped in their cars with very little information about what is going on.

Authorities at every level, public and private, must take on board the fact that if we behave like a third world country in the face of weather most other developed countries would take in their stride, we will become one.

Christmas Break

To all our readers a very Happy Christmas and success in 2018.

This Blog will be taking a break from today and will not fully resume regular postings until the New Year. During the holiday period some server maintenance has to be undertaken, so should you be unlucky enough to experience access problems, please be patient. They will be temporary.

Catalonia: What Next?

The election seems to have resolved nothing and it is much too early to draw any conclusions. But a few observations might be helpful.

Unlike the referendum, which was illegal and supported by less than half the electorate, the general election was official and the turnout well over 80%. This gives the poll strong democratic legitimacy. Unfortunately the result was not clear cut, although in many ways clear. The anti-independence party is the largest, but far short of a majority. The pro independence parties have a majority, but are not united in their approach to eventual independence. It is clear that the Puigdemont policy of calling a referendum and then declaring independence was a disaster. But so was the Spanish government’s response to it. Yet it is also clear that because of political pressures, neither had much option but to act as they did.

What is needed now are cool heads and common sense. Madrid has to accept that Catalonia’s aspirations cannot be brushed aside or silenced by repressive interpretation of the Spanish constitution, but the Catalans must take on board that for independence to work, it has to be legitimate and internationally recognised. That will require the backing of Spain as a whole.

So there much work to be done and many yawning gaps to bridge.

Trump’s Strategic Doctrine

Unusually for a commentator who leans Left, I find much to support in Trump’s new strategic view. I oppose his social conservatism, his vanity leading to spitefulness and I have doubts about trickle down economics. Certainly America needed to do something about business taxes, but bar charts of Federal government deficits over the last thirty years reveal they are mostly larger when Republicans are in the White House. So I am cautious here, but if he gets his infrastructure plans through Congress then things will really take off.

But it is on the strategic role of the US that I see something I can really buy into. For far too long and especially since the end of the Cold War, far too much of the world has done extravagant or stupid things in the belief that America will get it out of trouble either financially or with its military. This has been a bad period for America and the world at large and has seen a decline in the authority and effectiveness of the West.

Trump’s recognition that there are now three powers competing for influence across the world, America  Russia and China, shows a refreshing new realism. The assertion that America’s influence depends upon its strength as an economic power and its homeland prosperity rather than its military, which is there to defend not to bully, is a vast improvement. America does not seek to  impose its way of life on others, but it will set an example which others may will want to follow.

Above all Trump believes that every judgment must be made upon the foundation of America First. But he also expects both Russia and China to put their interests first. When necessary he will push back, but where common interest demands cooperation he will be a willing partner. This is a simple doctrine which makes sense, not just to strategists, but to ordinary people too. No wonder Putin and Xi Jinping get on with him. Western leaders will have to start to look after themselves. The EU, the second largest economy in the world, only just behind the US, and the largest single market, especially so.

Economy: Re-Boot Now!

For the first time since the 2008 crash the three great economic superpowers, America, China and Japan are all growing fast. Asian markets and the EU are picking up too. The UK is bumping along the bottom, way below the leaders and the EU. Paradoxically this is why we joined the Common market as it then was. We were called the Sick Man of Europe. Are we headed back to square one?

The answer is yes unless we do something about it. Although our growth is now faltering, manufacturing is expanding at its fastest pace in thirty years, due to the low pound. So there is a spark. We have now to stoke the fire with a massive reboot of the economic base with an infrastructure and affordable rental housing spend of at least £435 billion, plus start up investment in new technologies, R&D and home manufacturing of goods and food.

We cannot just stand by humming a merry tune while we wait to see whether we get hard, soft or no Brexit. We have to act to insulate ourselves from the negatives of all, ready to seize the opportunities of any. The only question is borrow  or print? Regular readers will know my answer. New readers may like the find out more by clicking on the attached link.

Another Cabinet Scalp

On a human level a career wreck is never pretty, but it was obvious from the very beginning that the double accusations of inappropriate touching of a highly respected female journalist and porn on the office computer, made it inevitable that Damien Green would have to go sooner or later. He should have insisted on sooner. May begged for later and lost. Par for her course. But with much bigger stuff pulling her in every direction, Green will soon be forgotten.

Like Fallon.

Who?