Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 176
April 1, 2015
Growth Without More Borrowing
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government 
borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy!
Election Campaign: Do The Tories Have The Edge?
So far the Tories appear to many commentators to be running the slicker campaign. They have a clear narrative and they are backed by good news stories coming out about the economy, which is at the centre of their campaign. Unfortunately the old fashioned endorsement letter by one hundred business leaders was a dated ploy which is not playing well and fools nobody. It was no doubt intended to counter Labour’s ad in the FT. Labour are mounting a powerful challenge, tougher than many expected, but it is more fragmented and they suffer the disadvantage that good economic news is bad for them. But the interesting thing is that none of this affects the opinion polls, the latest of which continue to be neck and neck.
So what does that mean? Could it be that campaigns have little impact as people pay almost no attention to them because they do not believe anything politicians promise? Could it mean that the digital revolution enables voters to bypass politicians to obtain the information they want on the issues which matter to them? Or could it be that this campaign has already gone on too long and it is now turning people off? Or will something galvanise in the last week and point to a clearer outcome as voters finally focus on their own choices?
We will just have to wait and see. In politics a week is a long time, six weeks is an age and anything can happen.
March 30, 2015
Election: Europe Takes Centre Stage
Labour has chosen to come out positively in favour of continuing membership of the EU. This is a very good thing for the country (it may not be for Labour) because we hear a very one sided argument for leaving, laced with a snake oil cure for everything if we go it alone.
It is not as simple as that. The quit movement have no coherent plan for what comes after. The notion we are going to sign a trading agreement is entirely self defeating (like Alex Salmond’s currency union) because in order to get it, the UK would have to sign up to all the pernickety EU rules, over which it could exercise no control at all. If we stay in but negotiate a better deal, we will then have to recover from all the uncertainty that the threat of leaving has created for UK business and investment.
If the quitters had a bold plan for a free trade area with the US, or a currency union with the dollar, or to lead the reconstruction of the infrastructure of Putin’s Russia or some other big idea, we would be able to judge whether we thought it a runner or plain barmy. But to have no plan except to move out and see what kind of shelter we can find afterwards is plain stupid.
MORE INVESTMENT: LESS BORROWING
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy!
Election: The Campaign Begins
To talk about the beginning of something which has been going on for months already is rather confusing. In actual fact so far only those who are engaged in politics or commentate on them have really been taking much notice. Parliament is dissolved today and this means that there are no longer any MPs. Government continues and ministers remain in office because they are the Queen’s ministers and not parliament’s. They will remain in office until a new government is formed after the election and that may not be right away. With so many parties in contention and with a first past the post electoral system it is literally beyond guessing even for the pollsters. An example of the potential for forecasting error is that the two main opinion polls out yesterday produced mirror opposite results. One gave a four point lead to the Tories another the same lead to Labour.
Nevertheless we can expect more public engagement now that the argument shifts from Westminster to the constituencies where most MPs will be fighting to hold onto their seats. They no longer have access to all the goodies of the Palace of Westminster; the are now civilians out on their own in thrall to their local party organisations and they are much more focused on doorstep issues than grand plans and big pictures. In this multi party election, opinion may not begin to form into a trend until about three weeks before polling day and real election fever will be late arriving; probably in the last week. Given that the parties are neck and neck, both the big two will hope to break free into a convincing lead. That may or may not happen.
So far this blog notes that after the first ‘once removed’ style debate, Milliband probably gained more personally than Cameron and that both parties are annoying voters by being opaque about the numbers. Billions are flying around but the public wants to know which billions and where are they going. So far there is little hard evidence to answer their concerns. There is a growing suspicion that actually nobody knows. Quoting forecasts is one thing, but with the British, whose unpredictable climate makes them forecast savvy, it is not the forecast they are voting for, but the true financial weather for the coming days of their lives.
March 28, 2015
Hitler’s First Lady
This Nazi era drama now has an interesting new cover image. It shows Hitler in his car with Karl Kaufmann, Gauleiter of Hamburg, seated at the back of the car on the left. He was the heroine’s first husband. Read this compelling novel in paperback or Kindle.
NHS 24/7
Cameron is right to say the NHS should be accessible twenty four/seven. But it won’t be unless it has the money and once again the Tories are re-cycling cash already committed to other parts of their manifesto.
This blog has previously posted that hospitals should run on three shifts of eight hours and never close or go into slumber mode. Healthcare is not a daylight activity like farming. One of the main reasons for waiting lists is that the NHS tries to operate business hours for all routine functions, shifting ever more demand into the emergency corridor.
So Cameron has the right idea in the broad sense but no means of paying for it. This blog has previously argued for a complete re-think of the way the NHS is funded. The present system does not work because it provides a finite budget to provide an infinite service. The more patients needing treatment, the more strapped for cash it becomes. It should work the other way; the more patients and procedures, the more money. But to achieve that would require taxation and funding reform that appears beyond the intellectual capacity of the PR smoothies dominating Westminster.
March 26, 2015
BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKSA Shocking Abuse of Parliament
It is reported that the Chancellor, George Osborne, refused to rule out, when questioned at his appearance at the Treasury Select committee, an increase in VAT if the Tories were elected to form the next government, because it had been agreed that Cameron would make the announcement at PMQs in order to wrong foot Milliband.
Ignoring any party loyalties and taking account of the realities of a close fought election campaign, this is an outrage. To refuse to answer a question and to give a reply the ambiguities of which are designed to mislead is the same as a lie. Indeed it is worse because it is a deliberate programme set up to mislead and then gain advantage, rather than an attempt to avoid embarrassment by disclosing the truth. It is a truly appalling example to set to others who come before these important parliamentary committees which are perhaps the most powerful engines of scrutiny in our somewhat limited democracy. Bankers and journalists cannot be expected to set a higher bar for their own veracity than holders of Offices of State.
It is no wonder that politics is falling into disrepute. This childish episode demonstrates that even the most exalted political figures are, beneath the slick veneer, disreputable.
March 25, 2015
HS2 : Build It
One of the greatest problems with England is its nostalgia for what has passed and its reluctance to acknowledge that the future is coming. It is possible to make an accountant’s case for HS2 and it is possible to make an equally good accountant’s case against it. There are environmental arguments which hold water both for and against.
HS2 is more than money. It is a vision. A vision of a modern forward looking Britain building high speed communications and a modern infrastructure to provide economic stimulus in the now and a more certain future in a competitive world for generations to come. Yes, you can mess about lengthening platforms and adding carriages to trains, but this is no more of a solution than putting bigger propellers on piston engined planes in the belief that will enable them to compete with jets. A dedicated high speed line without all the junctions and switches is as different a journey experience as chalk from cheese as everyone who goes by rail to France or rides the high speed commuter line in Kent can testify.
It is timely to remind the House of Lords committee which fails to see the case, that it is precisely this approach which has led to a decline in our industrial capacity and the fashioning of an economy founded on house price inflation, shopping and service jobs, delivering the lowest productivity per capita of any of the advanced nations. We have been completely left out of making lap tops, tablets, smart phones, TVs and almost all consumer electronics; a truly sorry outcome for the cradle of the industrial revolution. And as we all know the thing that gave that legs was the railway. In the modern age the railways have become the most environmentally friendly people carrier and without the very best the British people will be riding backwards. A bit like the House of Lords.
