Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 179
March 17, 2015
Shocking News : May Is Right
The Home Secretary recently warned the country that child abuse was endemic and threaded into every level of society and all across the country, in all classes, from the most exalted to the very lowly and in institutions which are part of the national fabric of education, safety, care and development.
Thus it should come as no surprise, but it does and shocks to the core, that the Metropolitan Police were involved in a blatant cover up on orders of goodness knows whom in the notorious case of Cyril Smith. That he an others were caught red handed, arrested, locked up then set free, while investigating officers were threatened with career slow downs and prosecutions under the Official Secrets Act, is an abuse of absolutely everything lawful for which this nation stands. And while these revelations are historic, this abuse is going on now all around us.
To stop it, to rehabilitate the victims which may include many of the abusers, and to prosecute the perpetrators and especially trusted public servants who broke the law organising cover ups, is a national priority and a social emergency. It is also essential that all the many enquiries are thorough and organised to expose, not to whitewash Hutton style, and report promptly. This is not a moment when Chilcot style timescales should be acceptable either.
March 16, 2015
Scottish Nationalists : In The Limelight
Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish Nationalists, says something and it is headline national news. She is not even standing for the Westminster parliament. Yet everyone knows that her party, defeated in the independence referendum, rides now so high that it it is likely to be the third largest party in the House of Commons after the election in May. Whether their potential leader at Westminster, Alex Salmond, will or will not join a coalition with Labour is all Cameron now talks about and all Milliband tries not to talk about. Yet the talk may be premature.
Although the two main parties are running neck and neck in the polls, when translated to seats all agree that Cameron will have the most. He will therefore have first shot at forming a government. There is no other party which, on these projections, can do as the Lib Dems did in 2010 and give him a majority in a coalition, so it is likely that he will go for a minority administration held together on a wing and a prayer from issue to issue. To get anything through will require a hotch potch deal, so not much big will happen.
The significance of the Scot Nats is that if their potential Westminster strength had remained unchanged, Labour would be, on all the projections from whichever source, the largest party and it would be Milliband leading the government either in coalition or on a deal or some informal pact. Unfortunately for Ed on all these projections even if he joins up with a much enlarged Scot Nat contingent, whatever words are used to describe it, he still will not have a majority. Once again on the projections, and remember projections can be and are sometimes wrong, the only absolute majority combination between two parties is with Tory and Labour together. Like Churchill during the war.
March 15, 2015
Gothic Crime: Kindle 99p Paperback £5.99
An English village slumbers on the Surrey/Sussex borders, but the pastoral exterior hides a number of nightmare secrets. The return of a young man, Philip, after a long absence stirs memories of the horrific murder of his mother and uncle years earlier and of an ancient curse delivered upon the family in Napoleonic times. The villagers’ unease grows as Philip embarks upon an affair with the local farmer’s daughter, and a series of mysterious deaths seem to follow in his wake. Soon their anxiety turns to fear as they feel evil in their midst. Could Philip be in league with the Devil? Set in the 1920s and full of authentic period detail, this is a tale which will haunt readers long after the last page has been turned.
China Bank: UK Is Right.
The US is miffed that the UK has applied for membership of the new Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. There have been sniffy comments about meeting ethical standards and the environment. Coming from the American government there is a ring of sour grapes in all this.
This blog has complained often of the lack of independent thinking at the heart of British foreign policy and railed against misjudgements in the Ukraine and mess ups in the Middle East. But on China Britain is right. America is no longer the only show in town, though it remains by far the biggest show of all. It is not in British interests to hitch its future entirely to the American wagon, nor even the European. With deteriorating relations with Russia (unnecessary), the muddle over the Euro (avoidable) and the rise of China as an economic superpower (inevitable), Britain, as a trading nation, must build independently an international network based on relationships founded on mutual interest. This will be achieved by engagement, not confrontation and joining up, not walking away.
America will have to get used to this and as a true friend it will. Meanwhile the UK foreign office is to be congratulated on one of its few bright moves. There may be a reason for this. It is said the orders came from the Treasury.
March 14, 2015
More Growth Less Borrowing
Politicians do not like to talk about the fragile nature of the UK’s Economic Recovery. Yet it remains rooted in borrowing, asset inflation, housing costs which are out of control and a housing shortage which continues to grow. It is consumption based in a country which no longer makes things for shoppers to buy, so jobs are exported and things are imported. Wages are at near historic lows, requiring subsidy and support from the government, even for those in work. The list goes on and on and you know it well. If you are a politician you never talk about it because you cannot see any other way forward. If you are in the top 10% you have never had it so good. If you are young and unemployed you are close to despair.
Yet it does not have to be like this. There is another way. Dynamic Quantitative Easing. It is only 2500 words in easy read format. To turn this original paper into a booklet, the January 2015 posts of this blog have been added. This bold new idea for economic growth will empower you with a greater understanding of what is happening in our economy and how we can change things for the better.
Download or Paperback from .99p
Polls: Where Do They Point?
The averages weighted and adjusted to a variety of methodologies point to the Tories being the largest party and Labour a close second. But, and here is the problem, neither party will have enough to form a coalition with another single party, notwithstanding that the party leaders are ruling out coalitions in an orgy of wishful thinking. Tory and Lib Dems together fall short, as do Labour and Scot Nats. So at least three parties would be needed. Labour, Scot Nat and Lib Dem is one possibility. The Tories have more of a problem because there is not a third party with potentially enough seats to bridge the gap, so Cameron would have to scoop up all sorts to get a majority. Labour would find it easier.
But it gets even more complicated than it appears, which says something. Cameron as leader of the largest party will be given first shot. He may decide to offer a minority government and hope to operate issue by issue or on a confidence and supply deal with all the minor players. However a sure footed Milliband might be able to get enough support to defeat him on the first Queens Speech, opening the way for a Milliband try. Even if he then succeeds, the Tories may have a majority of English votes, sufficient to block Labour on all sorts of domestic legislation. Whatever words you use to describe such uncertainty and muddle if it happens, traditional strong British government cannot be among them.
And that is the point. We are approaching pay back time for the complete folly of rejecting the AV voting system which would have taken care of all of this at the count and delivered a clear outcome. That would have been the one for which the most people had voted, even if not all the votes were first choice. Now, if we get a stable government at all and that is by no means certain, it will likely be one most people have voted against. You can use any word you like to describe that, as long as it is not democracy.
March 11, 2015
How To Cut Public Borrowing And Boost Growth
Politicians do not like to talk about the fragile nature of the UK’s Economic Recovery. Yet it remains rooted in borrowing, asset inflation, housing costs which are out of control and a housing shortage which continues to grow. It is consumption based in a country which no longer makes things for shoppers to buy, so jobs are exported and things are imported. Wages are at near historic lows, requiring subsidy and support from the government, even for those in work. The list goes on and on and you know it well. If you are a politician you never talk about it because you cannot see any other way forward. If you are in the top 10% you have never had it so good. If you are young and unemployed you are close to despair.
Yet it does not have to be like this. There is another way. Dynamic Quantitative Easing. It is only 2500 words in easy read format. To turn this original paper into a booklet, the January 2015 posts of this blog have been added. This bold new idea for economic growth will empower you with a greater understanding of what is happening in our economy and how we can change things for the better.
Download or Paperback from .99p
Lord Grade: Playing Politics?
This blog does not agree with Lord Grade’s opinion that broadcasters are playing politics if they leave an empty chair when Cameron fails to turns up to one or all of the TV debates. This blog does admire Lord Grade’s long history and experience in all facets of broadcasting and recognises the dynasty from which he comes, which has done so much to develop the entertainment industry in our country. We are less familiar with him in his role as a Tory peer, which seems to be at least part of the motivation for his intervention.
These debates are not actually the property of either broadcasters or politicians. In a democracy they are the property of the voters, who cannot be denied the opportunity of seeing party leaders compete with each other because one of them does not like the format. Or to put it brutally would like to scupper the whole idea. The Cameron camp believe the debates last time cost the Tories an outright majority. It is possible they are right. There was a chance that the Lib Dems would lose a good many of the seats they had harvested during the New labour era when the Tories made themselves unelectable, but because Clegg did so well in the TV show, they lost a few but not as many as they might have.
The advantage, if it can be called that, in an unwritten constitution is that it works on precedent. If it happened before it must be done again. Broadcasters and politicians and those who live in the bubble of Westminster, which definition includes Lord Grade whichever hat he wears, have a view of everything from within. They lose sight of the view from without, which is why their activities turn people off. But millions tuned into the leader debates last time and it would be literally a constitutional outrage for a repeat of that opportunity to be now denied. No prime minister, or indeed anyone, should have a veto on how it is organised. It is incumbent on all the leaders to behave like grown ups if they want us to take them seriously and as for Lord Grade? It is time to put a sock in it. Where have I heard that before?
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