Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 173
April 21, 2015
Major Speech Row
That really was an awful speech. Scotland is a separate country with a separate heritage and social values, which are more inclusive and left wing than further south. Scotland is the home of the original Labour party, whose first MP was Scottish. In the last hundred years five prime ministers have been of Scottish origin. Six if you include Cameron. Scotland has always played an important role in UK politics, but the Tory party has never really been a driving force in Scotland. Its high water mark was in 1955, when 36 MPs and 50% of the votes. Over the following years the numbers shrank until a wipeout in 1997. Since then just one seat. One of the drivers of the independence argument was the fact that Scots were governed by a party for which almost nobody any longer voted.
This nasty rhetoric about ‘clear and present danger’ is ludicrous and will put off many inclusive Conservatives who can think for themselves. Moreover the biggest threat to the Union comes from a majority in England voting to leave the EU. If that happened Scotland for sure would vote to leave the UK and apply to join the EU. What has Sir John Major to say about that?
Demonizing The SNP: A Major Intervention
This blog has a lot of respect for John Major. Described by Denis Thatcher as a ‘ghastly’ Prime Minister, his wife’s choice as her successor undoubtedly disappointed her. But he had a very difficult hand to play which included Black Wednesday, loads of negative equity and a Tory party split so badly down the EU faultline that he had to withdraw the whip from a gang of rebellious backbenchers and resign himself as Tory leader. He was only re-elected because he did a deal with Heseltine to share power. He then led the Tories into the biggest defeat in their history from which they have still not recovered. So he carries baggage for sure.
His intervention today with yet more frighteners about the SNP is a mistake. The endless Tory barrage about the dangers of the SNP is not only misconstrued but is also undermining the Union itself. Why should the Scots want to stay in a Union which constantly insults them? The threat to a Tory victory, which seems ever more remote, comes not from Nicola Sturgeon (the more seats she takes from Labour north of the border, the better for the Tories overall) but from UKIP and to some extent the Lib Dems in Conservative/Labour marginals. Much more attention should be paid to that theatre of operations rather than obsessing about Scotland.
Meanwhile Sturgeon is now acclaimed as the star and because of all the publicity she receives on Tory airtime, her party may well end up calling the tune. The problem for the Tories is that huge numbers of UK voters think that would be a very good thing.
April 20, 2015
Election 2015: Sturgeon Is The Star
No matter whether you are pro or anti SNP, or whether you love her or hate her, in a somewhat long winded and lacklustre election campaign Nicola Sturgeon is the outstanding star who has come to dominate beyond any other party leader. This is especially remarkable since she herself is not standing for election to Westminster. Cameron and Milliband have to spend more time talking about her party than any of their other opponents. In Milliband’s case this makes sense because he faces a massacre, if the polls are right, on May 7th, north of the border. That will preclude a Labour majority government. But there is more. It is this. Sturgeon has a whole lot of admirers among Labour candidates for Westminster south of the border, who will lean on Milliband to listen to her. And she won’t even be there.
Her man in Westminster could very well be Alex Salmond. No wonder the Westminster establishment is in a tizz. But then again, think on this. There are loads of English voters who privately think that is a very good prospect. And a good deal less divisive and crude than Farage. Cameron needs to stop and think before he speaks. Constantly going on about the risk of SNP influence could backfire even more spectacularly than the disaster of the programme to ridicule Milliband.
April 17, 2015
Romantic Mystery from Tor Raven
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The narrow, ordered life of a gentle but almost reclusive artist, Jane Block, is disturbed when a bequest, intended for her dead mother, passes to her. Mystery surrounds the nature of the inheritance and Jane is led on a sinister trail to secrets of the past, forcing her to confront her own fears and inhibitions. She finds herself caught in a frightening quest to unravel a mysterious cover-up from World War Two, and in so doing finds intrigue, love and betrayal.
Election 2015: Where Are We Now?
To answer that we need to look beneath the surface. The clues are to be found with two women. Christine Lagarde of the IMF and Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP. Christine Lagarde’s intervention yesterday to endorse the economic plan followed by the Coalition and offer a helping hand to Osborne in the process will delight the Tories who will spin it everywhere, but it will not affect the outcome. This is because those voters who worry about the IMF’s opinions are going to vote Tory anyway and the rest either don’t even know what the organisation does or do not care what it says, or both.
The clash between Nicola Sturgeon and Ed Milliband was the highlight of last night’s debate and each gained the point they needed to make. In terms of snap polls Ed came out just ahead of Nicola. Ed gave an uncompromising performance rebuffing Nicola’s overtures to join up an anti Cameron coalition and in doing so destroyed the notion that he would be in the pocket of the SNP. Ridiculing (and insulting) Milliband was the central nasty theme of the Tory campaign put together by their Australian guru. It offended the British sense of fair play and ensured that Ed was seen as the underdog. Brits love underdogs. Ed’s stock is rising fast with every new poll. He is also a much tougher opponent than anyone expected and has energised the Labour campaign.
Nicola had a big success too. She has given the SNP a role outside Scotland as the cheerleader for an end to austerity in the UK as a whole. She is backed by most Labour voters in that role and has given substance to the idea of an anti austerity majority in the Commons. This would include Plaid Cymru and the DUP as well as the LIB Dems who are gaining ground with their opposition to the Tory cuts programme and the halt in UKIP’s rise. Farage did not shine in the debate last night.
And the dynamic which is beginning to emerge in this peculiar election is that there is a majority in the country that is against more dogmatic austerity. Nicola’s performances in three debates have helped to bring that about. If tactical voting is used in its favour on May 7th, the Tories will lose. The maths is against them now. Their only hope is the effect of the minor parties splitting the anti austerity vote in a first past the post electoral system. That is now their only hope and it may not be in vain.
April 16, 2015
Good Books
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You will find good page turning thrillers, some with an historical background drawn from the Nazi era.
Downloads and handy paperbacks.
Election 2015: Spanners In The Works?
Today we learn that the IMF is not entirely happy with the projections offered by the OBR and the Tory campaign for the future economic recovery. We must remember that this is an argument about assumptions and future projections of the results which would follow, if the assumptions were right and the projections accurate. Voters are nowadays a good deal more cautious than politicians in believing these things. Nevertheless this is a timely reminder that too much of the economic pie on offer, from all parties in this election, is in the sky and too little is actually real. Reality will dawn after the election and we must all brace ourselves that it may be very different from inducements to vote on offer now.
Meanwhile the the former head of the NHS has told the BBC that there are serious financial deficits soon to reveal themselves in the accounts of various different entities within the organisation, mainly hospitals, and that politicians are being far from straightforward about the need to review the scale of NHS funding needs in a realistic way. He pointed out that we spend less on health than France or Germany and although they are both insured systems, the insurance is compulsory, so it is equivalent to a tax. He is right. Our ‘free’ NHS takes two thirds of all income tax receipts and if care in the community is added the figure is higher still. The problem, under the UK funding model, is an infinite service has to operate within a finite budget. This is becoming increasingly impossible as demand and complexities of treatment rise at a much faster pace than the willingness to pay for them. Ask politicians to talk more about that if you get the chance.
April 15, 2015
Boost Growth Without Borrowing: And Rebalance The Economy.
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government 
borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy!
Election 2015: Oh Dear!
There are, as every voter knows, many serious issues concerning the strength, nature and shape of the economy and the social knock on effects that they bring. On Monday Labour presented a sober manifesto aimed at those in society, which are the majority, who have yet to feel the benefits of economic recovery. Milliband gave perhaps his strongest performance yet in its presentation and earned praise from commentators. Once again there was a lack of financial detail, a common failing on all sides in an election taking on the shape of an auction, but clear undertakings for fiscal responsibility. It should play well on the doorstep, but the finances will be well and truly picked over by commentators and opponents.
Today it is the turn of the Lib Dems to present their plans, which are, like Labour, sober and not too ambitious. They are more detailed financially than the two big parties and aimed not to become the government, which lib Dems know they cannot, but more to promote themselves as the voice of reason among jostling extremes in any coalition or similar deal.
The shocker has been the offering of the Tories which must rank as one of the most irresponsible attempts to entice votes with promises which cannot be kept, or if they are, will bring about calamity. Anybody who has made a study of how we went from a major industrial power to one where over 70% of the economy is consumption, mostly of imports, and where total debt per household is among the highest in the world, where house price inflation has enslaved huge swathes of the population to working all hours to meet mortgage payments, knows that it began with the right to purchase council homes. Not only has the financial sector come to dominate the economy and suck resources away from everything else from manufacturing to healthcare, but there is now a chronic housing shortage and lack of actual building on anything like the scale needed.
To now demand of housing associations that they succumb to a directive which they oppose, to sell at substantial discount social housing and thus defeat the whole purpose of their origins, just to satisfy the Tory fetish for home ownership which they believe favours them, without regard to whether it is sensible, the right time or affordable, is grossly irresponsible and deeply cynical. The housing associations will be entitled to receive the shortfall in value from the government for which any Tory government will not have the money. The problem is explained away in a convoluted muddle of forcing local authorities to sell their more expensive properties when they become vacant, which is half baked and against the national interest. Of course it will promote loads more borrowing to fatten the already grossly obese finance industry.
This blog is impartial so vote Tory if you want to. But you will live to regret it if your vote helps them to win. Especially if you are a home owner with a mortgage. Remember negative equity? Well it will be back with Cameron. But first the feel good binge of a boom. Enjoy that while you can because what comes after will be dark days indeed.
