Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 155
August 10, 2015
Labour’s Election Drama
This is a minefield into which a wiser Blog would not venture. Commenting on political elections based on reported figures and polls went so badly wrong at the general election that a period of reflection seems in order. The problem is we may be in the midst of a contest of historic proportions which may (or may not) signal a seismic shift in the political weather leading eventually to changes as dramatic of those inaugurated by Attlee and Thatcher. Whatever the outcome of Labour’s poll in the end, it is now the fact that the race is dominated by Corbyn. Everything he says his commented on and reported and everywhere he goes he is greeted with acclaim. What the other candidates say or think is ignored, unless they comment on Corbyn. For any soundbite his name has to be in it.
This is leading some MPs, who sit under the pink shade of New Labour, to become so alarmed as to demand that the contest be halted. This is absurd. It suggests a disconnect between the parliamentary party and the people. This blog has long asserted that Labour has drifted too far from its roots and its spectacular loss in May was because the working class, far from voting for the Tories who received their lowest winning total on post war record, either did not vote or voted UKIP in England and SNP in Scotland.
The panic surrounds the surge of 150,000 new Labour members or supporters who have so far registered to vote. The Stop the Vote campaign asserts that loads of Tories are joining up to back Corbyn to make Labour unelectable in 2020. Maybe a handful of nutters are. But these figures reveal a surge greater than the total current membership of the Conservative Party. It suggests that what is actually happening is that very large numbers of people who feel deserted and let down by New Labour and who have walked away from the party, are now returning at the prospect of a leader who understands them, is one of them and who will fight their corner. ie Corbyn.
The notion that you can stop a political contest because you fear you might lose shows a political clique that has indeed lost the plot.
August 9, 2015
Printing Money: What It Means
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99
Labour And Clause Four
Jeremy Corbyn is right to throw into the political debate the role of the state in the economy; in particular public utilities which are monopolies. The Tories fundamentally believe the state is a bad idea in anything beyond law enforcement and the armed forces. Everything has been privatised that conceivably could be. While an argument can be made for enterprises like British Airways and BP to be privatised, because they are businesses in competition with many others in their field, the same cannot be said for gas, electricity, water, railways, roads and other monopoly public services.
To control privately owned monopolies, regulators had to be appointed. The result is a vast portfolio of regulations and regulators, hugely increasing costs to consumers, to which have to be added returns for shareholders and the costs of re-investment to sustain the infrastructure, much of which is out of date. To all this inefficiency can be added the contracted out basic services such as prisons and refuse collection. These so called business are paid their income out of local and national taxation and are not really in the private sector at all, because they have no revenue other than from taxpayers.
The combination of private monopolies, the quango state and taxation funded enterprise has created one of the most costly an inefficient economic models ever. This is why the government is constantly having to borrow. It must surely be right to have a good look at all this and become much more honest about the function of the state and its potential to reduce costs and do things a better way, while leaving genuine competitive business unhindered. However, turning the clock back to a copy and paste of Clause Four will fall short of the need. A new modern interpretation is called for. Corbyn could deliver that.
August 8, 2015
Weekend Cheer
British Sport, which appeared to go into the doldrums somewhat after the triumph of the 2012 Olympics, seems to be bouncing back. Loads of golds in the swimming championships, the Tour de France, the bronze for the Women footballers, and now the Ashes won in spectacular style. Could this auger well for Rio, where the competition will be tough? Certainly confidence is building. And England in the Football World Cup? Well who can tell. Anything would be better than last time.
August 7, 2015
Migrant Shame
The UNHCR describes the situation on three small Greek islands on which tens of thousands of migrant refugees have landed as chaos. Greece, its economy on the brink, has no resources to cope and has appealed for EU help. So far none has been forthcoming. This is appalling. According to the UN most of the migrants are from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. These are all states in varying forms of dysfunction as a consequence of western military interventions, either political or military. Britain has been in the forefront of all of it. We are still members of the EU and the policy failures over the migrant issue are as much our fault as anybody elses. Time for some leadership from Cameron. The how and why these people got there is now irrelevant. They are there and they need help. Time to give it.
Interest Rates: A Warning
This blog has always been firmly of the view that interest rates should have started to rise slowly long ago. Leaving them at a dysfunctional emergency low of .25% for years and long after the acute emergency which led to their reduction to the lowest level in history, has been a mistake. It means that interest rates have been factored out of the financial package, both as a lever of control for the authorities and a means of income for savers. This has led to investment in both shares and property pushing asset values to levels which will require correction; a process of excess valuation stoked by quantitative easing and government ‘help to buy’ interventions. Unfortunately these corrections when they come always end in tears.
There is now another issue. Interest rates have been off the radar for so long, nobody is sure how the whole system will react when they start to move. It may not be a gentle process. Private sector pay, for long stagnant, is now growing at 3.5% pa. It would be folly to suppose that interest rates can stay far behind for long. The Bank of England’s assertion that 2.5% is the maximum to expect and then only slowly could turn out to be too optimistic. At the moment inflation is held in check by falling oil and commodity prices because of falling demand in China. But allowing this benefit to be used as an excuse to hold down interest rates below a functional level could be expensive in the long run.
August 6, 2015
Bank Of England Statistics
From today the BoE is going to publish its monthly interest rate decision at the same time as the minutes of the meeting at which the decision is taken. Once a quarter when it publishes its Inflation Report, it will do so on the same day as the other two. Many have welcomed this. Some have said this approach amounts to information overload. That is absurd. All three are connected and a part of the same core issues. It is not possible to comment coherently about one, without knowing about the others. No wonder some economists talk in riddles.
August 5, 2015
Printing Money: An Easy Explanation
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99
