Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 153
August 25, 2015
Printing Money: How It’s Done
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99
Global Debt
The problems in China which are causing so much anxiety in the markets are on the face of it about an economic slowdown in the world’s fastest growing economy which has powered global expansion since not long after the end of the Cold War. It is indeed the case that China has built its strength on becoming the workshop to the world, pouring out vast amounts of goods dirt cheap for consumption by the developed economies. China has been the engine which has driven global expansion and could be said to be the engine of what has become known as globalisation. It had been expected that China would start to evolve the next stage of its economic development, home consumption, to alleviate local poverty, expand the middle class and increase living standards for its vast multitudes. Here lay rich opportunities for Western business. Suddenly all that is on hold.
Equally suddenly the global outlook becomes uncertain. Markets take fright. The situation is made much worse by the fact that the Chinese authorities escaped the effects of 2007 by funding first a property boom and then a share boom with debt. That has caused assets to inflate way above their true worth and they now have to fall back to whatever that level is. It will be less than the money borrowed to inflate them. That means losses to the lenders and a chain reaction we all know so well. What is not clear to anyone is just now is how much this is a problem for China and how much will spill across the world. Emerging markets are already slowing.
There is a deeper problem. Too much of globalisation has been powered by debt and too little by real money measuring real wealth. Put in a nutshell the world economy has too much debt and too little money. Watch this space.
August 24, 2015
Book Of The Hour! Get It Now
Set in the mid nineteen nineties, this fast moving 
thriller lifts the curtain on sex, sleaze and corruption in high places as the long reign of the government totters to an end, following the ousting of the iconic Margaret Thatcher. The novel catches the mood of those times with a host of fictional characters who engage in political intrigue, sex, money laundering and murder, pursued by an Irish investigative journalist and his girlfriend, the daughter of a cabinet minister found dead in a hotel room after bondage sex.
How To Print Money
An idea to stimulate economic growth without further government borrowing. Written in plain English and very easy to follow, this is the only really fresh approach out there to the intractable problems of the UK economy, and it is just beginning to be noticed in important places. Buy! Download only .99p Paperback £2.99
China Slowdown
The Chinese authorities are fighting hard on every front to try and counter the effects of an economic slowdown which is thought by many to be deeper than official statistics reveal. Nevertheless what is now happening has wide implications for the rest of the world, most of which will suffer aftershocks.
It is a serious business when the fastest growing economy in the world slows up, even if it carries on growing at enviable levels. This is because the whole balance of globalisation has to a large extent focussed on the ever growing size of China’s contribution, to the point where it has been factored in and taken for granted. Markets are now in full retreat everywhere and oil has dropped to record lows for recent times. The FTSE 100 has fallen a thousand points from its peak. The situation is complicated by the large element of borrowing which has fuelled global stock prices, which if recovery is not rapid and sustained, will lead to knock on losses throughout the global system.
Given the situation now unfolding, the declaration by the CBI that the UK economy is likely to grow faster than expected, might be a touch hasty. We shall have to see. Cheaper oil is good, but a slowdown in China, mayhem in emerging markets and muddle in the eurozone are headwinds to say the very least. One perverse advantage of being unable to grow our exports may be that we have relatively less to lose.
August 23, 2015
Labour Economics
It is interesting that some forty economists are backing Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to economic solutions for the UK. It seems to this blog that one of the many reasons that New Labour has lost votes election by election since 1997 is that it has never had a clear cut economic policy which was significantly different to the Thatcherite agenda of the Tories. That was was an advantage at the turn of the century when the Tories had ceased to be a credible option and New Labour was able to slip on the mantle of the natural party of government. However when the Tories finally came through their very slow recovery process, their supporters flocked back to them with relief.
Labour then suffered from the fact that it had lost the votes of more than four million of its natural supporters. It cannot win until they return. It will not be possible to get them back until an advanced, modern, credible anti-austerity economic platform is developed. The only candidate even to try is Jeremy Corbyn. None of the others can answer a straight economic question, without resorting to sound bites which reveal their ignorance of the subject is almost total.
August 22, 2015
BROWSE MY BOOKS WITH THESE LINKSGreek Saga Ongoing
Prime Minister Tsipras has called a snap election to reinforce his country’s acceptance of the best terms it can get from a discredited eurozone. Once again the Greeks are being asked to vote; the problem from which these remarkable people suffer is that they vote for one thing but get another. This has happened to them twice this year already. Tsipras knows this. He is a politician with integrity and he feels he must renew his mandate, especially as the left wing of his party has broken off to form a new grouping.
Opinion is divided over whether these latest terms, accepted under duress by a parliament knowing that to refuse meant economic chaos. Some believe that this is the deal which will set Greece on the road to recovery. Others see another crisis looming down the road. It is absolutely certain that nothing will work unless the euro group, ie Germany, agrees to significant and substantial debt relief on a scale much greater than anything on the agenda at the moment. The IMF believes this and is pressing its point hard.Christine Lagarde has emerged as a friend of the Greek people. A friend in need is a friend indeed, as the saying goes.
August 21, 2015
Labour’s Leadership Election
I suspect that this will be the last event to be organized by the remnants of New Labour, whose claim to organise a government is undermined by their inability to organise themselves. On the lunchtime news I heard clips of those who claimed there was ‘large scale infiltration’ of those hostile to the party in its new list of those entitled to vote. Other genuine supporters had received emails declining their vote. It was an inspired idea to throw the election open to anybody willing to pay three pounds or whatever and in doing so all but fools would know that there will be both tactical and hostile voting, as in any democratic process which is open and free. This is quite different to fraud which involves goldfish voting or multiple votes cast by the same person.
There are now more people with full membership, affiliation, or registered supporters of Labour than all the rest of the political parties in the UK put together. Over 600,000 are entitled to vote apparently. There are fewer than 140,000 in the Tory party and if a handful of sillies amongst them think it would be fun to vote for Corbyn to scupper Labour’s chances at the next general election, let them. They could end up in the very same place as the Tory grandees in 1945 who laughed at the notion that the country could possibly choose the mild mannered near invisible Attlee over the larger than life war hero, Churchill. As for the Oxbridge New Labour gang; they fear not just losing the vote, but losing the party as well. The people are preparing to take it back.
August 19, 2015
Interest Rates
The Bank of England’s predictions about the rise of interest rates have been wrong, or consistently revised, over at least three years. Some economists believe they should have risen from their base emergency level as soon as the recovery began. I support that view. A small rise would have had no practical effect on the recovery but it would have reactivated interest rates as a tool of economic management. They have been out of use for so long nobody has experience of what the effect will be when they reappear. The notion that it will be just as before may be a rash assumption.
In the modern world of floating currencies and global markets, interest rates have two primary functions. One is to influence currency movement up or down and the other is to reduce inflation by curbing demand. Unfortunately the UK is now in a situation where the currency is too high to allow significant export growth and any rise in interest rates to curb the coming increase in inflation will push sterling higher. It is also not certain by any means that a rise would curb any building inflation. It may actually stoke it because the cost of money suddenly becomes an issue in pricing. So things may not be as settled as they seem. It could be that a lever untouched for many years, when finally pulled, produces an unforeseen outcome. At least for a while.
