Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 123

The UK : A Crisis Begins

The United Kingdom is now entering the most critical period of uncertainty and crisis management since the end of the Second World War. Yes there have been problems before, but they have always been at a level which did not throw into doubt where the country was trying to go, how it was going to pay its way, with whom and on what terms it was going to trade and above all, of what would the United Kingdom in future consist?

We now, on Referendum  plus .75 of a day, have a lame duck caretaker government with a shattered prime minister, a cumbersome electoral process for the ill-starred and sundered Tory party to elect a new leader to form a new government creating great political uncertainty, shares and the pound in turmoil, warnings of a ratings downgrade, pressure on the banks and the very likely prospect that Scotland will break away to independence in order to remain in the EU, with the further prospect that Northern Ireland may well leave the UK to unite with the Republic of Ireland.

Meanwhile business investment is all but grinding to a halt, since such is the confusion, no rational manager can determine what the future holds and where the opportunities might beckon. That in turn will trigger a downturn in a country not yet out of the clutches of the aftermath of the 2008 crash. And all of this self inflicted so that we can ‘take back control’, ‘set ourselves free’, and become ‘independent again’.

I beg your pardon?

Brexit Win :The Morning After

There were some who said if Brexit won nothing much would happen the next day.

Well so far the pound has had a record plunge, shares opened by falling off a cliff, the Bank of England had to issue a statement of reassurance, then the Governor had to appear in person to outline emergency measures had been put in place to prop up the banks if once again they run into trouble as their shares fell by as much as 30% and the Prime Minister has resigned.

And it is not yet 9.30 am.

Actually it looks like quite a day. One to remember perhaps?

 

 

Brexit Thoughts Fourteen : A Walk With Pride

This is my final post before the vote. As regular readers will know I am unmoved by economic arguments either one way or the other, or immigration fears and passions. I would vote Remain even if it cost me, because to me and my family the Union of independent states in Europe is the greatest political achievement since the fall of the Roman Empire, and the bloodletting of centuries costing the lives of millions is at an end. At an end not because of the force of an imperial gun, but because all the people in all the states are free to mingle, work and live side by side as neighbours and friends. Nobody is thirsting for a fight because at last they have drunk from the cup of fellowship and peace. The scourge of conscription into mass armies and slaughter across the countryside and through the cities, is over. To me that trumps everything else anyone can say and to put it in jeopardy or to walk from it, is to nullify the sacrifice of all those whose blood led us to a dream none thought possible.

You must vote Leave if you want to and I wish you well. What saddens me is that after twenty-five years of planning, your champions have been unable to offer a single clear view of where that will lead you and what sacrifice you will have to make to reach the land you have been promised. Could that be because they do not know? Could it be they dare not tell? Could it be that promised land is not there at all? You must be the judge of that.

As I walk into the polling station tomorrow I shall carry in my pocket my passport. My passport which designates me a Citizen of Europe. I shall walk with pride.

Turn Left To Power: Buy Now

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out. Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution which can propel Labour back to government in 2020.

Check it out now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

Germany Warns NATO Against Sabre Rattling

This very interesting development has been more or less eclipsed by recent events connected to our EU referendum, but it is worth commenting on, not least because the theme coincides with the position I have promoted publicly for the last seven years.

The German foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier chided NATO for war mongering because of its latest  exercise in Poland. He asserts that needling Russia with military exercises on its border is counter productive, inflames tensions and does nothing to secure regional security. He is quite right. When the Soviet Union collapsed its counter to NATO, the Warsaw Pact, was  dismantled. The West’s refusal to do the same to NATO and at the same time not to invite Russia to become a full member was a throwback to Versailles in 1919, and a far cry from the enlightened treatment of West Germany after 1945.

History teaches many lessons but it is history. We understood that the emerging Germany was not that of Hitler and needed a different approach to bring it into an alliance focused on peace not war. We did not, and still do not, see that modern Russia, which now enjoys some degree of democracy for the first time in its history, is not that of Stalin. This is in part because Russia likes strong leaders at all times and found themselves Putin, whereas the West prefers to shuffle a pack of political nonentities to lead them and only now and again come up with a Churchill, a Roosevelt, a Thatcher or a De Gaulle.  Britain had a go with Blair but he is now very damaged goods, suggesting strong leaders are a bad idea. So Putin is made out to be an ogre when he is no such thing (though neither is he an angel) and Western foreign and diplomatic policy is blundering through its greatest period of failures in modern times.

It is interesting that Germany, yes Germany, has decided to blow the whistle. Watch this space.

A Road Map for Labour: Download or Papaerback

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out. Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution which can propel Labour back to government in 2020.

Check it out now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

Brexit Thoughts 13: Political Dangers Ahead

As the campaign resumes following the dreadful murder of Jo Cox by someone calling themselves Death to Traitors Freedom for Britain, there is  evidence that the surge in the polls enjoyed recently by Leave is ebbing. According to experts who follow referenda around the world, this is normal. Often, but not always, people flirt with change, then shrink from it. Nevertheless the result either way looks close and difficult to call. So it could still be a Brexit win.

That could be very messy, which is why markets are worried. In the UK a referendum has no constitutional authority and the result is only advisory to parliament. Parliament must pass legislation to put the outcome into effect if it is Leave. The snag is there is a significant cross party majority among MPs for Remain. If the result were close, say 49.5 Remain, 50.5 Leave, parliament may not endorse it. In any event there is likely to be a political crisis threatening Cameron and his Chancellor, Osborne. If there is a big majority in the country for Leave and parliament decides to accept the verdict, the Cameron government would almost certainly fall and be replaced with Leave ministers who might not themselves survive a vote of confidence.

The negotiations to disentangle from Europe and negotiate a new trade deal could take two years, possibly four and the worst estimate is fifteen, because all business regulations, emission controls, criminal codes etc are EU wide. Just walking away and pushing through Parliament new legislation in contravention of EU treaties would expose the potential for massive legal challenges at political, corporate and personal levels. Of course this is GB and it might all sort itself out smoothly over a cup of tea, but the potential for both political and financial chaos is very real. It is that which is spooking the markets. They are geared for that sort of thing in the likes of Greece and even Italy, but not GB. Even the Fed is concerned.

Remember this is all happening in a country with no codified constitution, where absolute sovereignty rests with parliament. Technically that is ceded from the monarch, but in this case that is irrelevant. Essentially parliament is the constitution and can change it as it goes. But for once nobody is sure where it is going or what will happen. Cameron was wrong to call this referendum to try and head off UKIP as well as to appease his right wing. It has been hugely damaging to the social and political equilibrium and unless he wins big, not only will his leadership be challenged, probably successfully, but he will go down in history as a name to remember for all the wrong reasons.

And then there is Scotland. There is a real possibility that Scotland, which is legally a separate country in a voluntary Union with England, will vote Remain.  This could lead to legal challenges as to what Scotland’s status actually was, if it wanted to stay in the EU. It could also deal the separatists the card they have been waiting for. So whatever government is trying to survive in London would have to try and hold the Union together and negotiate an exit from the EU as well as new trade deals across the world. But who would sign without knowing the longevity of the entity to which they were being asked to commit? If anyone supposes that markets will like all that, they need to think again. A vote for Leave may be a vote afterwards regretted. Patriotism is noble and leads to worthy things but nationalism has a dark heart and most often ends in disaster.

 

Labour’s Road To Power: Download and Paperback

Turn Left To Power is an explosive dissertation in book form offering a fundamental redirection for Labour’s return to power, with bold ideas for a new economic and social settlement, including economic and taxation reform, restoration of responsibility in government and a renewal of democracy. Full of detailed information, hard facts and the results of thorough research and deep thinking, the narrative will grip you like a thriller and open your eyes to a brighter, fairer future in a mere 25000 words. The ideas are relevant whether Brexit goes In or Out.

Malcolm Blair-Robinson, writer and blogger,  has been a keen political observer for more than sixty years. Born a Tory, he became a founder member of the SDP, before gradually migrating left. In 2014 he published his idea of Dynamic Quantitative Easing which aroused interest in high places and this forms a core element of this powerful and compact analysis of Labour’s opportunity to regain power.  Frank and at a times brutal, Turn Left To Power offers a collection of fundamental reforms which amount to a political revolution. He is dismayed by the unfairness of the current economic model and is driven by the hope of a better future for the rising generation.

Get your copy now. Paperback £4.99   Kindle £1.99     AMAZON UK

US State Department Luminaries: Wrong Headed

A bunch of State Department officials have signed a declaration claiming that Obama should bomb Assad targets in Syria, because without that the Dictator will never negotiate. There are several flaws in this unwise proposed intervention.

First of all it is clear that military interventions in the middle east have done more harm than good, with the failed states of Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan as the outcome. Next the defeat of Assad would lead to a collapse of the Syrian state also, with a brutal civil war among the so called victors on the ground, which contain some of the the most radical of the Islamic groups and bitter enemies of the West. A takeover by IS would follow in short order. Russia might directly or by proxy down US planes. Things would get a lot worse than anything thus far and that says something.

With people like this at the heart of the US power base in Washington, the choice of President becomes more critical than might appear out on the campaign trail. The experienced Clinton begins to look more attractive the the gung-ho Trump.

A Shocking Political Murder: A Time To Pause

It was until yesterday unthinkable in this country that one of the brightest of our young political stars, a passionate, eloquent campaigning politician, but also a devoted Mum of two young children and a loving wife, who was already earmarked for future high office and leadership, could be shot to death in her constituency by an unhinged loner shouting  ‘Put Britain First’.

But it has happened. We unite to share the grief of this family in their unimaginable pain; we unite to condemn a crime few can comprehend; we unite to celebrate a very remarkable life cut short and we must unite to later ask the question of ourselves, what have we done to our country that such a thing can be?

But for now it is time to pause and reflect. Posts on this blog will resume when that has happened.