Wayne L. Winston's Blog, page 4

How to Play without CP3

Here is what has worked for the Rockets without CP3.

Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Capela        Tucker

Anderson      Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Capela
Gordon        Harden        Mbah_a_Moute  Capela        Tucker
Gordon        Harden        Nene       Mbah_a_Moute  Tucker
Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Mbah_a_Moute  Capela
Ariza         Gordon        Harden        Nene       Tucker

Gordon out :Harden Tucker Anderson Moute and Nene, Capela  or Green

Harden out: Ariza  Gordon and Tucker with 2 of Capela, Moute,  Nene ,Anderson or Green

Final NBA regular season ratings

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
3.07
-5.03
8.10


2
Philadelphia 76ers
4.80
-2.52
7.32


3
Toronto Raptors
4.72
-1.98
6.71


4
Utah Jazz
-1.21
-7.45
6.24


5
Oklahoma City Thunder
4.24
-0.66
4.90


6
San Antonio Spurs
-2.91
-6.50
3.59


7
Portland Trail Blazers
0.16
-3.37
3.53


8
Golden State Warriors
4.82
1.48
3.34


9
Minnesota Timberwolves
3.42
0.24
3.18


10
New Orleans Pelicans
5.73
2.60
3.13


11
Charlotte Hornets
4.80
2.79
2.01


12
Boston Celtics
-3.50
-5.30
1.80


13
Denver Nuggets
4.46
2.99
1.46


14
Indiana Pacers
-3.00
-4.39
1.39


15
Miami Heat
-1.94
-3.13
1.18


16
Los Angeles Clippers
3.94
3.74
0.20


17
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.32
4.38
-0.06


18
Detroit Pistons
-1.77
-1.69
-0.08


19
Los Angeles Lakers
1.86
2.43
-0.57


20
Washington Wizards
0.03
1.00
-0.96


21
Milwaukee Bucks
0.48
1.63
-1.15


22
Dallas Mavericks
-3.65
-0.17
-3.48


23
Brooklyn Nets
-0.17
3.74
-3.91


24
New York Knicks
-1.91
2.72
-4.63


25
Sacramento Kings
-7.54
-2.12
-5.42


26
Orlando Magic
-5.79
-0.19
-5.60


27
Atlanta Hawks
-3.70
2.30
-6.00


28
Memphis Grizzlies
-6.72
1.14
-7.86


29
Chicago Bulls
-2.98
5.24
-8.22


30
Phoenix Suns
-4.05
6.09
-10.14

NBA Ratings April 1 2018

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
5.22
-4.88
10.10


2
Toronto Raptors
6.04
-0.66
6.70


3
Philadelphia 76ers
2.74
-3.06
5.80


4
Utah Jazz
-2.19
-7.09
4.90


5
Golden State Warriors
4.50
0.33
4.17


6
San Antonio Spurs
-3.58
-7.51
3.93


7
Portland Trail Blazers
0.84
-2.93
3.77


8
Oklahoma City Thunder
2.91
-0.83
3.74


9
Boston Celtics
-2.80
-6.26
3.46


10
Minnesota Timberwolves
4.15
0.76
3.39


11
Los Angeles Clippers
5.07
2.25
2.82


12
Miami Heat
-1.82
-3.74
1.91


13
Indiana Pacers
-2.80
-4.49
1.69


14
New Orleans Pelicans
4.53
3.56
0.97


15
Charlotte Hornets
3.14
2.24
0.90


16
Denver Nuggets
4.82
4.24
0.58


17
Washington Wizards
0.92
0.50
0.41


18
Milwaukee Bucks
0.18
0.74
-0.56


19
Cleveland Cavaliers
3.86
4.46
-0.60


20
Los Angeles Lakers
2.47
3.07
-0.60


21
Detroit Pistons
-3.12
-2.51
-0.62


22
Dallas Mavericks
-3.36
-1.15
-2.22


23
New York Knicks
-1.07
3.24
-4.31


24
Brooklyn Nets
-0.46
4.05
-4.52


25
Orlando Magic
-4.38
1.30
-5.68


26
Sacramento Kings
-6.22
0.45
-6.67


27
Atlanta Hawks
-3.85
2.85
-6.70


28
Chicago Bulls
-2.65
4.73
-7.38


29
Memphis Grizzlies
-8.58
-0.53
-8.05


30
Phoenix Suns
-4.50
6.87
-11.37

NBA Ratings March 28

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
5.60
-4.98
10.58


2
Toronto Raptors
5.93
-0.96
6.89


3
Philadelphia 76ers
2.51
-2.80
5.31


4
Utah Jazz
-2.11
-7.21
5.10


5
Portland Trail Blazers
0.90
-3.38
4.29


6
Golden State Warriors
4.65
0.48
4.17


7
San Antonio Spurs
-3.63
-7.63
4.00


8
Oklahoma City Thunder
2.46
-0.92
3.39


9
Boston Celtics
-3.09
-6.16
3.07


10
Minnesota Timberwolves
3.68
1.15
2.53


11
Los Angeles Clippers
4.97
2.64
2.34


12
Miami Heat
-1.56
-3.83
2.27


13
Indiana Pacers
-2.92
-4.82
1.90


14
Charlotte Hornets
3.42
2.32
1.10


15
Denver Nuggets
4.69
3.83
0.86


16
New Orleans Pelicans
4.45
3.75
0.70


17
Washington Wizards
1.01
0.52
0.49


18
Detroit Pistons
-3.16
-2.81
-0.34


19
Milwaukee Bucks
0.05
0.46
-0.41


20
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.08
4.73
-0.64


21
Los Angeles Lakers
2.25
2.97
-0.72


22
Dallas Mavericks
-2.95
-0.99
-1.96


23
New York Knicks
-1.39
3.00
-4.39


24
Orlando Magic
-3.33
1.23
-4.56


25
Brooklyn Nets
-0.56
4.16
-4.72


26
Atlanta Hawks
-3.58
2.39
-5.96


27
Sacramento Kings
-6.27
0.33
-6.59


28
Memphis Grizzlies
-9.15
-0.67
-8.47


29
Chicago Bulls
-2.68
5.88
-8.56


30
Phoenix Suns
-4.30
7.35
-11.65

NBA Ratings March 24

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
5.62
-4.38
9.99


2
Toronto Raptors
6.35
-1.33
7.68


3
Golden State Warriors
6.09
0.55
5.54


4
San Antonio Spurs
-3.99
-8.62
4.62


5
Philadelphia 76ers
1.77
-2.82
4.60


6
Utah Jazz
-2.46
-6.85
4.39


7
Portland Trail Blazers
0.78
-3.28
4.06


8
Oklahoma City Thunder
2.37
-1.22
3.59


9
Minnesota Timberwolves
4.11
0.53
3.58


10
Boston Celtics
-2.98
-6.01
3.03


11
Miami Heat
-1.49
-3.26
1.78


12
Los Angeles Clippers
4.84
3.12
1.72


13
Indiana Pacers
-3.08
-4.21
1.13


14
Denver Nuggets
4.60
3.49
1.11


15
New Orleans Pelicans
5.01
3.92
1.10


16
Charlotte Hornets
2.68
1.82
0.86


17
Washington Wizards
0.89
0.36
0.53


18
Cleveland Cavaliers
4.66
5.05
-0.38


19
Milwaukee Bucks
0.05
0.60
-0.55


20
Los Angeles Lakers
2.29
2.88
-0.59


21
Detroit Pistons
-3.69
-2.86
-0.83


22
Dallas Mavericks
-2.79
-0.81
-1.98


23
Orlando Magic
-3.22
1.24
-4.46


24
Brooklyn Nets
-0.73
3.80
-4.53


25
New York Knicks
-2.15
2.57
-4.72


26
Atlanta Hawks
-3.81
2.15
-5.96


27
Sacramento Kings
-6.14
0.10
-6.24


28
Chicago Bulls
-2.27
5.64
-7.91


29
Memphis Grizzlies
-9.09
0.10
-9.19


30
Phoenix Suns
-4.21
7.73
-11.94

Elite 8 odds

Team
3
4
5
6
>=4
>=5
6


Villanova
26.66%
31.66%
8.58%
33.10%
73.34%
41.68%
33.10%


DUKE
37.82%
27.98%
8.22%
25.98%
62.18%
34.20%
25.98%


MICH
37.98%
17.68%
29.48%
14.86%
62.02%
44.34%
14.86%


KANSAS
62.18%
22.26%
4.86%
10.70%
37.82%
15.56%
10.70%


FSU
62.02%
13.74%
18.64%
5.60%
37.98%
24.24%
5.60%


TEX TECH
73.34%
18.10%
3.62%
4.94%
26.66%
8.56%
4.94%


K STATE
37.68%
39.76%
18.82%
3.74%
62.32%
22.56%
3.74%


LOYOLA
62.32%
28.82%
7.78%
1.08%
37.68%
8.86%
1.08%

NBA Ratings March 20

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
5.93
-4.42
10.35


2
Toronto Raptors
6.68
-1.67
8.36


3
Golden State Warriors
6.67
0.97
5.70


4
Utah Jazz
-3.57
-8.51
4.93


5
San Antonio Spurs
-4.66
-9.29
4.63


6
Portland Trail Blazers
0.72
-3.63
4.35


7
Philadelphia 76ers
1.07
-2.96
4.03


8
Oklahoma City Thunder
2.68
-0.93
3.61


9
Minnesota Timberwolves
4.11
0.74
3.38


10
Boston Celtics
-3.13
-5.80
2.66


11
Los Angeles Clippers
4.47
2.53
1.94


12
Miami Heat
-1.67
-2.94
1.27


13
Indiana Pacers
-2.46
-3.56
1.09


14
New Orleans Pelicans
5.17
4.19
0.98


15
Washington Wizards
1.65
0.80
0.85


16
Denver Nuggets
4.28
4.35
-0.07


17
Milwaukee Bucks
-0.59
-0.04
-0.55


18
Los Angeles Lakers
1.75
2.43
-0.69


19
Charlotte Hornets
1.69
2.66
-0.97


20
Cleveland Cavaliers
3.99
5.05
-1.06


21
Dallas Mavericks
-3.14
-1.55
-1.58


22
Detroit Pistons
-3.77
-1.89
-1.88


23
Orlando Magic
-2.32
1.81
-4.14


24
New York Knicks
-1.84
2.51
-4.35


25
Brooklyn Nets
-0.85
4.03
-4.89


26
Atlanta Hawks
-3.19
3.15
-6.34


27
Chicago Bulls
-1.89
4.75
-6.64


28
Sacramento Kings
-6.02
0.66
-6.67


29
Memphis Grizzlies
-8.68
-1.17
-7.51


30
Phoenix Suns
-3.06
7.74
-10.81

Sweet 16 odds

What a weekend!. Unfortunately Duke is now the favorite to win it all. Dook has a 22.84% chance to win and 55% chance to make Final 4

Team
2
3
4
5
6


DUKE
14.88%
29.98%
24.30%
8.00%
22.84%


Villanova
32.74%
19.12%
19.34%
6.86%
21.94%


KANSAS
30.80%
36.70%
16.56%
5.88%
10.06%


ZAGS
34.86%
29.18%
12.18%
14.70%
9.08%


MICH
37.56%
28.18%
12.00%
14.00%
8.26%


UK
38.94%
21.04%
21.54%
12.66%
5.82%


WVA
67.26%
14.72%
9.74%
3.22%
5.06%


PURDUE
45.06%
35.22%
11.66%
3.50%
4.56%


TEX TECH
54.94%
30.94%
9.24%
2.14%
2.74%


TEX A&M
62.44%
21.40%
7.50%
6.26%
2.40%


NEVADA
36.28%
36.22%
17.24%
8.28%
1.98%


FSU
65.14%
21.24%
6.64%
5.14%
1.84%


K STATE
61.06%
17.24%
14.62%
5.38%
1.70%


CLEMSON
69.20%
22.26%
6.08%
1.44%
1.02%


LOYOLA
63.72%
25.50%
8.28%
2.12%
0.38%


SYR
85.12%
11.06%
3.08%
0.42%
0.32%









>=3
>=4
>=5
6


DUKE
85.12%
55.14%
30.84%
22.84%


Villanova
67.26%
48.14%
28.80%
21.94%


KANSAS
69.20%
32.50%
15.94%
10.06%


ZAGS
65.14%
35.96%
23.78%
9.08%


MICH
62.44%
34.26%
22.26%
8.26%


UK
61.06%
40.02%
18.48%
5.82%


WVA
32.74%
18.02%
8.28%
5.06%


PURDUE
54.94%
19.72%
8.06%
4.56%


TEX TECH
45.06%
14.12%
4.88%
2.74%


TEX A&M
37.56%
16.16%
8.66%
2.40%


NEVADA
63.72%
27.50%
10.26%
1.98%


FSU
34.86%
13.62%
6.98%
1.84%


K STATE
38.94%
21.70%
7.08%
1.70%


CLEMSON
30.80%
8.54%
2.46%
1.02%


LOYOLA
36.28%
10.78%
2.50%
0.38%


SYR
14.88%
3.82%
0.74%
0.32%

Updated NCAA odds

16 beating a 1 is always more likely than all 4 #1 seeds making final 4 and it finally happened!

Team
1
2
3
4
5
6


1
Villanova
12.10%
22.52%
15.16%
16.82%
9.96%
23.44%


2
CINN
23.68%
25.56%
14.40%
13.86%
11.04%
11.46%


3
KANSAS
23.58%
22.88%
21.76%
14.24%
6.78%
10.76%


4
DUKE
24.18%
31.34%
20.28%
12.26%
5.26%
6.68%


5
UNC
31.20%
27.72%
16.32%
10.10%
8.24%
6.42%


6
MSU
21.20%
36.40%
19.50%
12.50%
4.24%
6.16%


7
ZAGS
37.44%
25.66%
17.74%
8.74%
5.68%
4.74%


8
TENN
22.36%
42.52%
13.20%
11.56%
6.04%
4.32%


9
MICH
36.96%
31.26%
14.72%
8.04%
5.12%
3.90%


10
WVA
11.50%
58.82%
12.72%
9.64%
3.82%
3.50%


11
XAVIER
37.44%
29.92%
17.00%
7.62%
5.10%
2.92%


12
UK
25.14%
27.62%
27.10%
12.10%
5.44%
2.60%


13
PURDUE
39.20%
27.80%
21.02%
6.70%
2.92%
2.36%


14
TEX TECH
43.64%
26.84%
19.90%
5.82%
2.06%
1.74%


15
AUB
42.46%
34.72%
13.36%
6.02%
1.86%
1.58%


16
K STATE
11.52%
46.74%
28.30%
8.56%
3.66%
1.22%


17
OHIO ST.
62.56%
20.48%
9.74%
3.88%
2.28%
1.06%


18
HOUS
63.04%
22.48%
8.58%
3.66%
1.46%
0.78%


19
FLORIDA
56.36%
23.28%
15.04%
3.52%
1.04%
0.76%


20
TEX A&M
68.80%
18.54%
7.32%
3.10%
1.54%
0.70%


21
CLEMSON
57.54%
28.82%
9.12%
3.00%
0.90%
0.62%


22
FSU
62.56%
23.94%
8.58%
3.06%
1.24%
0.62%


23
BUT
60.80%
22.08%
12.80%
3.08%
0.70%
0.54%


24
SETON HALL
76.42%
13.58%
6.72%
2.16%
0.80%
0.32%


25
NEVADA
76.32%
14.00%
5.28%
2.76%
1.32%
0.32%


26
SYR
78.80%
15.88%
4.06%
0.92%
0.20%
0.14%


27
RIU
75.82%
16.38%
5.20%
1.94%
0.52%
0.14%


28
BUFF
74.86%
15.44%
7.50%
1.84%
0.28%
0.08%


29
LOYOLA
77.64%
17.92%
2.98%
1.06%
0.32%
0.08%


30
ALA
87.90%
7.84%
2.76%
1.32%
0.14%
0.04%


31
MARSHALL
88.50%
10.82%
0.60%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%


32
UMBC
88.48%
10.20%
1.24%
0.06%
0.02%
0.00%

Chance of each team winning >=n games.

>=2
>=3
>=4
>=5
>=6


Villanova
87.90%
65.38%
50.22%
33.40%
23.44%


CINN
76.32%
50.76%
36.36%
22.50%
11.46%


KANSAS
76.42%
53.54%
31.78%
17.54%
10.76%


DUKE
75.82%
44.48%
24.20%
11.94%
6.68%


UNC
68.80%
41.08%
24.76%
14.66%
6.42%


MSU
78.80%
42.40%
22.90%
10.40%
6.16%


ZAGS
62.56%
36.90%
19.16%
10.42%
4.74%


TENN
77.64%
35.12%
21.92%
10.36%
4.32%


MICH
63.04%
31.78%
17.06%
9.02%
3.90%


WVA
88.50%
29.68%
16.96%
7.32%
3.50%


XAVIER
62.56%
32.64%
15.64%
8.02%
2.92%


UK
74.86%
47.24%
20.14%
8.04%
2.60%


PURDUE
60.80%
33.00%
11.98%
5.28%
2.36%


TEX TECH
56.36%
29.52%
9.62%
3.80%
1.74%


AUB
57.54%
22.82%
9.46%
3.44%
1.58%


K STATE
88.48%
41.74%
13.44%
4.88%
1.22%


OHIO ST.
37.44%
16.96%
7.22%
3.34%
1.06%


HOUS
36.96%
14.48%
5.90%
2.24%
0.78%


FLORIDA
43.64%
20.36%
5.32%
1.80%
0.76%


TEX A&M
31.20%
12.66%
5.34%
2.24%
0.70%


CLEMSON
42.46%
13.64%
4.52%
1.52%
0.62%


FSU
37.44%
13.50%
4.92%
1.86%
0.62%


BUT
39.20%
17.12%
4.32%
1.24%
0.54%


SETON HALL
23.58%
10.00%
3.28%
1.12%
0.32%


NEVADA
23.68%
9.68%
4.40%
1.64%
0.32%


SYR
21.20%
5.32%
1.26%
0.34%
0.14%


RIU
24.18%
7.80%
2.60%
0.66%
0.14%


BUFF
25.14%
9.70%
2.20%
0.36%
0.08%


LOYOLA
22.36%
4.44%
1.46%
0.40%
0.08%


ALA
12.10%
4.26%
1.50%
0.18%
0.04%


MARSHALL
11.50%
0.68%
0.08%
0.02%
0.00%


UMBC
11.52%
1.32%
0.08%
0.02%
0.00%

NBA Ratings March 12

Rank
Team
Offense
Defense
Rating


1
Houston Rockets
6.41
-3.75
10.16


2
Toronto Raptors
6.40
-2.64
9.04


3
Golden State Warriors
8.70
2.09
6.61


4
Philadelphia 76ers
1.36
-3.01
4.37


5
Utah Jazz
-3.77
-7.78
4.01


6
Minnesota Timberwolves
3.42
-0.28
3.70


7
Boston Celtics
-2.30
-5.85
3.55


8
Portland Trail Blazers
0.39
-2.99
3.38


9
Oklahoma City Thunder
1.34
-1.62
2.96


10
San Antonio Spurs
-3.90
-6.75
2.85


11
Los Angeles Clippers
4.84
2.53
2.31


12
Miami Heat
-2.87
-4.80
1.94


13
Indiana Pacers
-1.73
-2.72
0.98


14
Washington Wizards
1.18
0.34
0.83


15
Denver Nuggets
3.39
3.05
0.35


16
New Orleans Pelicans
5.97
5.81
0.16


17
Charlotte Hornets
1.96
2.16
-0.19


18
Milwaukee Bucks
-1.91
-1.69
-0.22


19
Los Angeles Lakers
3.02
3.66
-0.63


20
Detroit Pistons
-2.74
-1.39
-1.35


21
Cleveland Cavaliers
3.36
5.13
-1.77


22
Dallas Mavericks
-3.83
-1.80
-2.03


23
Orlando Magic
-1.26
2.14
-3.40


24
New York Knicks
-1.94
3.10
-5.04


25
Brooklyn Nets
-1.85
3.36
-5.20


26
Atlanta Hawks
-4.01
1.80
-5.81


27
Chicago Bulls
-1.09
4.98
-6.07


28
Memphis Grizzlies
-9.33
-1.87
-7.47


29
Sacramento Kings
-6.57
1.35
-7.92


30
Phoenix Suns
-2.67
7.43
-10.11