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Fooled by the Winners Quotes
Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
by
David Lockwood149 ratings, 3.67 average rating, 31 reviews
Fooled by the Winners Quotes
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“The main negative feedback loop on Earth is rain. Rainfall is sensitive to temperature—the hotter it gets the more it rains. Rain catches CO2 in the air and drags it down to Earth’s surface to be deposited in rocks. An additional but less important negative feedback loop is photosynthesis. Plants use the sun’s energy to combine CO2 with water to produce more plants. More CO2 in the atmosphere spurs more plant growth, and more CO2 is then taken out of the atmosphere.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“What we do know is that most species don’t make it. Ninety-nine percent of all species that once lived on the earth are gone.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“The contrasts in how Hitler, Mao, and Stalin are viewed today show how those governments and political parties that survive can rewrite history.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“The story of Unit 731 may be the exception: Victor and vanquished colluded to cover up war crimes and genocide carried out with biological weapons.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“His greatest academic achievement was the discovery of the theory of statistical decision functions. Today, Wald is known as the founder of sequential analysis. He also published some of the first papers on game theory.2 The methods of sequential analysis he developed were widely applied to the US WWII effort.3 Wald was known”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“Nevertheless, even if one feels a bit depressed by this state of affairs, there is no reason to take antidepressants, they probably won’t work.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“However, how a particular individual got to the top is not necessarily the best way to get there.”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“One way to test for survivor bias in mutual funds is to ask your stockbroker for a list of all the funds that he recommended ten years ago. Or ask for a report on the performance of the firm’s mutual funds that includes those that were shut down over the last decade, the non-survivors. (I have done this myself. To date, no such reports have arrived in my inbox.)”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
“In a study of 720 hedge funds that started twenty years ago, only 262 were still operating after the first decade, and only 13 after the second.15 Another study of over one thousand hedge funds showed that from 2004 to 2014, fewer than half that started at the beginning of the period were still in business ten years later.16 As expected, the number of hedge fund closures varies”
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us
― Fooled by the Winners: How Survivor Bias Deceives Us