Fully Grown Quotes

“There are, without a doubt, an incredible number of new and improved technologies arriving every day. Self-driving cars, gene editing, low-cost solar panels, more efficient batteries, biofuel, quantum computers, 3-D printing of metals, artificial intelligence, and on and on and on, Any, or all, of these could generate profound changes in how we live and how we produce the goods and services that go into GDP. That said, it isn't obvious that we'll see profound effects on the growth rate of the economy. Many of those innovations make the production of goods more efficient, but that would only accelerate the shift into services. And there may be a larger question about whether we want to adopt or pursue these innovations at all. As Charles Jones suggested in a recent paper, given our current life expectancy and living standards, the risks inherent in any technology - to the environment, society, or our own health - may not be worth pursuing just to add a fraction of a percentage point to the growth rate.”
― Dietrich Vollrath, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success

“As a tool for offsetting the drag on growth caused by population aging, a modest amount of additional immigration is the best bet.”
― Dietrich Vollrath, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success

“The current constellation of government spending, regulation, and taxation benefits some and hurts others. But as we saw, there is little evidence that shifts in these policies would have a significant effect on economic growth. Thus the arguments over the proper level of all three are best had in terms of their effects on different groups, as opposed to their effect on aggregate growth. In particular, claims that specific policies will 'pay for themselves' in any capacity are fatuous. Government fiscal and regulatory policy is, to a large degree, about the division of the economic pie, not its size.”
― Dietrich Vollrath, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success

“Trade generated severe consequences for certain regions and workers and contributed a little to the shift into services. Changes in trade policy, specific trade deals, and assistance programs could alleviate the economic damage done to those regions and workers or exacerbate it, depending on the particulars. But as the evidence showed, there is little reason to suspect that increased trade had much of an effect on the growth slowdown itself. Hence the debate on trade should focus on whether, and how, the winners from trade might compensate the losers, and any effect on the growth rate is going to be of secondary importance.”
― Dietrich Vollrath, Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success