How to Actually Change Your Mind Quotes

“Учасники експерименту, яким пропонували виграти долар за те, що ті випадково витягнуть з миски червону желейну цукерку, часто обирали ту, де було більше червоних цукерок загалом, навіть якщо їхня частка була меншою. Тобто миску з 7 червоними цукерками зі 100 обирали частіше, ніж ту, де була 1 з 10.

Піддослідні зізнавалися, що розуміли несприятливі ймовірності, але відчували, ніби шанси вищі там, де червоних цукерок кількісно більше.

Обтяжений статистикою читачу, я розумію: для вас слова піддослідних можуть звучати дико, але якщо як слід подумати, їх можна зрозуміти. Імовірність 7% проти 10% може звучати не дуже, проте вона чудово компенсується зростанням кількості червоних цукерок. Імовірність гірша, та шансів на перемогу більше — от побачите!

Над експериментом варто посушити голову, щоб здобути просвітлення, як решта планети сприймає ймовірності.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“Until you admit you were wrong, you cannot get on with your life; your self-image will still be bound to the old mistake.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“But just as the vast majority of all complex statements are untrue, the vast majority of negative things you can say about anyone, even the worst person in the world, are untrue.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“To summarize, you do avoid a Happy Death Spiral by: Splitting the Great Idea into parts; Treating every additional detail as burdensome; Thinking about the specifics of the causal chain instead of the good or bad feelings; Not rehearsing evidence; and Not adding happiness from claims that “you can’t prove are wrong”; but not by: Refusing to admire anything too much; Conducting a biased search for negative points until you feel unhappy again; or Forcibly shoving an idea into a safe box.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“hold off on thinking of an answer.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“once an idea gets into your head, it will probably require way too much evidence to get it out again.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“Once you can guess what your answer will be, you have probably already decided.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“Do not propose solutions until the problem has been discussed as thoroughly as possible without suggesting any.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“The “preliminary” step of locating possibilities worthy of explicit consideration includes steps like: weighing what you know and don’t know, what you can and can’t predict; making a deliberate effort to avoid absurdity bias and widen confidence intervals; pondering which questions are the important ones, trying to adjust for possible Black Swans”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“deliberately think about whatever hurts the most. Don’t rehearse standard objections whose standard counters would make you feel better. Ask yourself what smart people who disagree would say to your first reply, and your second reply. Whenever you catch yourself flinching away from an objection you fleetingly thought of, drag it out into the forefront of your mind. Punch yourself in the solar plexus. Stick a knife in your heart, and wiggle to widen the hole. In the face of the pain, rehearse only this:1 What is true is already so. Owning up to it doesn’t make it worse. Not being open about it doesn’t make it go away. And because it’s true, it is what is there to be interacted with. Anything untrue isn’t there to be lived. People can stand what is true, for they are already enduring it.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind

“effectiveness as a rationalist—is determined by the algorithm that decided which conclusion you would seek arguments for.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, How to Actually Change Your Mind