Stop Guessing Quotes

“Don’t Rely on Experts Doveryai, no proveryai (trust, but verify). —OLD RUSSIAN PROVERB,”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“You must unlearn what you have learned.1 —YODA, IN STAR WARS: EPISODE V—THE EMPIRE STRIKES”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“If you believe that success is inevitable, you’re less likely to work your tail off in order to achieve it. Hard problems are definitely immune to the power of belief. Simply deciding that you’ll solve something doesn’t solve it. The best problem-solvers I know hold in their head a kind of contradiction. They simultaneously hold two beliefs: They have the skills needed to solve the problem, and they fear that this might be their moment of failure if they are not vigilant. They have the confidence to dive right in and get their hands dirty, to jump into unfamiliar situations, to explore processes or science that’s brand new to them. And along with it, they know that there is no path to success laid out for them that they can follow. They must forge their own way, and they are wary of getting lost. They hate the thought of failure, and they know it’s a real possibility.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“It is possible, with lots of hard work, dedication, and timely help, to make a good writer out of a merely competent one.1 —STEPHEN KING, ON WRITING”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Variable Analysis 1. Define the problem. a. What problem are you trying to solve? b. Determine the primary variable • Closely inspect the point of failure or failed output • What measurable property do you want to change? • Is it possible to define the problem using a more specific variable? 2. Describe the problem: describe the problem in detail. a. What does the problem look like? b. When did the problem start? c. How often does the problem occur? d. Where does the problem first occur? e. When where don’t you see the problem? 3. Create a variable tree: develop each layer of sub-variables by understanding how the process works a. How is the process designed to control the primary variable? b. What else determines the value of the primary variable? c. Can we combine any of the sub-variables? 4. Eliminate sub-variables from the tree a. What should the value of each sub-variable be to prevent the problem from occurring? • What is the relationship between each sub-variable and the primary variable? b. Eliminate sub-variables that do not contribute to the problem • What is the actual value of the sub-variable during failure? During non-failure? • What tests could you use to eliminate variables that are difficult to measure? • What does the pattern of failure tell you? c. Expand sub-variables that have not been eliminated (iterating step 3) d. Start with sub-variables that the pattern-of-failure suggests are most likely to contribute to the problem e. Continue to expand and eliminate sub-variables until you have found the out-of-spec variable(s) that are directly in your control • Can you explain exactly how the out-of-spec sub-variable(s) contribute(s) directly to the problem? f. If you get stuck . . . • Have you eliminated a sub-variable that you should not have? • Have you missed a sub-variable? 5. Implement the solution a. Implement the solution b. Verify the solution”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“whenever you read a method step such as “determine possible root causes,” this is a red flag for your problem-solving method.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“In my own experience I have found that most problem-solving methods promote guessing at some point in the process, but that it is snuck in under disguise.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Keep in mind that the method you choose to guide you is of little use without strong problem-solving behaviors.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“most methods disguise the guessing stage in some fancy language, such as “determine possible root causes.” This is making a list of guesses, and at this point I hope you would read such an instruction and declare, “How the heck am I meant to do that?” Even coming up with a “hypothesis” is a guess, despite it being a scientific term. If at any point in a method you are asked to make a list, “come up with” something, or hypothesize, then avoid such a method for the junk that it is.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Choose wisely, for the true grail will bring you life; the false grail will take it from you.1 —THE GRAIL KNIGHT, IN INDIANA JONES AND THE LAST CRUSADE”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Noticing and eliminating distractions will enable you to stay on target when you’re facing down your next complex problem.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Don’t “solve” your problem at a high level where you throw lots of money at it to make it go away: Stay on target and keep going until you’ve found the simple root cause.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“When you move down your tree, keep in mind there may be multiple variables contributing to the failure.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Staying on target means understanding and measuring only what you need to in order to drill to the root cause and find a simple solution.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“By eliminating the variables closest to the primary variable, we immediately eliminate many potential root causes, and we can avoid collecting data about or looking deeply into most of the process or system.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“our job is to efficiently find the root cause. So instead of expanding each variable, we want to see if we can eliminate some of the “high level” variables right at the start. Each one we get rid of has many subvariables that sit below it and we can then ignore.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“There are even a lot of formal problem-solving methods that actively encourage expanding possibilities when problem-solving. As I’ve said before, expansive thinking is wonderful when you’re creating new things. But when you’re solving a practical problem, it’s completely unhelpful. Great problem-solvers instead reduce and eliminate possibilities in order to stay on target. They are masters of simplifying.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. —LEONARDO DA VINCI, 15TH-CENTURY PAINTER AND INVENTOR”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“The last major risk to getting good facts is our own prejudices. While we may not always test a solution based on our opinions or assumptions about what’s causing the problem, confirmation bias can plague any problem-solving effort.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“So what is a relevant fact? It’s a fact that’s going to answer the question you’re asking that takes you to the next step in your problem-solving process. When you’ve reached a certain variable, you need to get the facts to accurately understand its behavior, and what controls it.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“So often, I see people bury themselves in mounds of data coming off their computers, hoping that some stream or other will yield an interesting correlation. There’s nothing wrong with using statistical analysis as a tool, and with this ability to crunch big data, the cost of this continues to drop. However, recognize that relying on this is just guessing.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Life gets painful both at work and at home when you’re not making decisions with facts. When all you hear are people’s opinions, you’re in the unenviable position of having to decide whose opinion to accept and invest in based on who you trust. You may have to consider who has a bias and who has an agenda.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“most people believe they’re making fact-based decisions, when they are, in fact, making opinion-based ones.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Great problem-solvers also have opinions; what makes them different is that they recognize them for what they are and then set them aside.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the latter ignorance. —HIPPOCRATES, ANCIENT GREEK FOUNDER OF THE SCIENCE OF MEDICINE”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Truly great problem-solvers powerfully communicate the value of the problem-solving process and difficulty of the problem once the solution is found.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“If you don’t believe in a simple solution, you are very unlikely to find it, whether it is there or not.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“Don’t confuse believing in a simple solution with hoping that a simple guess will work.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“If you believe that complex solutions are better than simple ones, or if you believe it’s better to take a simple guessing shortcut, but then be saddled with a horrendous, complicated execution plan, you might as well give up now.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers

“When you don’t believe in a simple solution to a hard problem, you instead believe in a complex solution. These complex solutions are easy to come by, but they tend to be expensive.”
― Nat Greene, Stop Guessing: The 9 Behaviors of Great Problem Solvers