The Next 100 Years Quotes

“Anger does not make history. Power does. And power may be supplemented by anger, but it derives from more fundamental realities; geography, demographics, technology, and culture.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“The computer focuses ruthlessly on things that can be represented in numbers. In so doing, it seduces people into thinking that other aspects of knowledge are either unreal or unimportant. The computer treats reason as an instrument for achieving things, not for contemplating things. It narrows dramatically what we know and intended by reason.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“America is in the earliest phase of its power. It is not fully civilized. America, like Europe in the sixteenth century, is still barbaric (a description, not a moral judgment). Its culture is unformed. Its will is powerful. Its emotions drive it in different and contradictory directions. Cultures live in one of three states. The first state is barbarism. Barbarians believe that the customs of their village are the laws of nature and that anyone who doesn’t live the way they live is beneath contempt and requiring redemption or destruction. The third state is decadence. Decadents cynically believe that nothing is better than anything else. If they hold anyone in contempt, it is those who believe in anything. Nothing is worth fighting for. Civilization is the second and most rare state. Civilized people are able to balance two contradictory thoughts in their minds. They believe that there are truths and that their cultures approximate those truths. At the same time, they hold open in their mind the possibility that they are in error. The combination of belief and skepticism is inherently unstable. Cultures pass through barbarism to civilization and then to decadence, as skepticism undermines self-certainty Civilized people fight selectively but effectively.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Here is the irony: Europe dominated the world, but it failed to dominate itself. For five hundred years Europe tore itself apart in civil wars, and as a result there was never a European empire—there was instead a British empire, a Spanish empire, a French empire, a Portuguese empire, and so on.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“... common sense is the one thing that will certainly be wrong.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Psychologically, the United States is a bizarre mixture of overconfidence and insecurity. Interestingly, this is the precise description of the adolescent mind, and that is exactly the American condition in the twenty-first century. The world’s leading power is having an extended adolescent identity crisis, complete with incredible new strength and irrational mood swings. Historically, the United States is an extraordinarily young and therefore immature society. So at this time we should expect nothing less from America than bravado and despair. How else should an adolescent feel about itself and its place in the world? But if we think of the United States as an adolescent, early in its overall history, then we also know that, regardless of its self-image, adulthood lies ahead. Adults tend to be more stable and more powerful than adolescents. Therefore, it is logical to conclude that America is in the earliest phase of its power. It is not fully civilized. America, like Europe in the sixteenth century, is still barbaric (a description, not a moral judgment). Its culture is unformed. Its will is powerful. Its emotions drive it in different and contradictory directions. Cultures live in one of three states. The first state is barbarism. Barbarians believe that the customs of their village are the laws of nature and that anyone who doesn’t live the way they live is beneath contempt and requiring redemption or destruction. The third state is decadence. Decadents cynically believe that nothing is better than anything else. If they hold anyone in contempt, it is those who believe in anything. Nothing is worth fighting for. Civilization is the second and most rare state. Civilized people are able to balance two contradictory thoughts in their minds. They believe that there are truths and that their cultures approximate those truths. At the same time, they hold open in their mind the possibility that they are in error. The combination of belief and skepticism is inherently unstable. Cultures pass through barbarism to civilization and then to decadence, as skepticism undermines self-certainty Civilized people fight selectively but effectively. Obviously all cultures contain people who are barbaric, civilized, or decadent, but each culture is dominated at different times by one principle.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“There are many who predict that China is the next challenger to the United States, not Russia. I don’t agree with that view for three reasons. First, when you look at a map of China closely, you see that it is really a very isolated country physically. With Siberia in the north, the Himalayas and jungles to the south, and most of China’s population in the eastern part of the country, the Chinese aren’t going to easily expand. Second, China has not been a major naval power for centuries, and building a navy requires a long time not only to build ships but to create well-trained and experienced sailors. Third, there is a deeper reason for not worrying about China. China is inherently unstable. Whenever it opens its borders to the outside world, the coastal region becomes prosperous, but the vast majority of Chinese in the interior remain impoverished.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“the United States has a single core policy in Eurasia—preventing any power from dominating Eurasia or part of it. If China weakens or fragments and the Europeans are weak and divided, the United States will have a fundamental interest: avoiding general war, by keeping the Russians focused on the Balts and Poles, unable to think globally.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“This highlights the single most important geopolitical fact in the world: the United States controls all of the oceans. No other power in history has been able to do this. And that control is not only the foundation of America’s security but also the foundation of its”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“When you drill down and see the forces that are shaping nations, you can see that the menu from which they choose is limited.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Europe was barbaric in the sixteenth century, as the self-certainty of Christianity fueled the first conquests. Europe passed into civilization in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and then collapsed into decadence in the course of the twentieth century. The United States is just beginning its cultural and historical journey.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“The United States doesn’t need to win wars. It needs to simply disrupt things so the other side can’t build up sufficient strength to challenge it.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“The history of the twenty-first century, therefore, particularly the first half, will revolve around two opposing struggles. One will be secondary powers forming coalitions to try to contain and control the United States. The second will be the United States acting preemptively to prevent an effective coalition from forming.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Rome wasn’t planned, and neither did it just happen.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Cultures live in one of three states. The first state is barbarism. Barbarians believe that the customs of their village are the laws of nature and that anyone who doesn’t live the way they live is beneath contempt and requiring redemption or destruction. The third state is decadence. Decadents cynically believe that nothing is better than anything else. If they hold anyone in contempt, it is those who believe in anything. Nothing is worth fighting for.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Economists talk about an invisible hand, in which the self-interested, short-term activities of people lead to what Adam Smith called “the wealth of nations.” Geopolitics applies the concept of the invisible hand to the behavior of nations and other international actors. The pursuit of short-term self-interest by nations and by their leaders leads, if not to the wealth of nations, then at least to predictable behavior and, therefore, the ability to forecast the shape of the future international system.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Pero su meta no era ganar. Ni siquiera estaba claro qué significaba ganar. Su meta era sólo perturbar al mundo musulmán y ponerlo en contra de sí mismo, para que no emergiera un imperio islámico.”
― George Friedman, Los próximos 100 años: Pronósticos para el siglo XXI

“Pero a comienzos de la década de los ochenta sucedió algo notable. Por primera vez en la historia, el comercio traspacífico igualó al comercio trasatlántico.”
― George Friedman, Los próximos 100 años: Pronósticos para el siglo XXI

“En los últimos quinientos años, Europa fue el centro del sistema internacional, y sus imperios crearon un sistema global por primera vez en la historia humana.”
― George Friedman, Los próximos 100 años: Pronósticos para el siglo XXI

“Europe was barbaric in the sixteenth century, as the self-certainty of Christianity fueled the first conquests. Europe passed into civilization in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and then collapsed into decadence in the course of the twentieth century.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“as the Russians press on the Poles from the east, the Germans won’t have an appetite for a third war with Russia. The United States, however, will back Poland, providing it with massive economic and technical support.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“And here’s a fact that should get you thinking: when Social Security set the retirement age at sixty-five, the average life expectancy for a male was sixty-one. It makes us realize how little Social Security was designed to pay out. The subsequent surge in life expectancy has changed the math of retirement entirely.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“There are endless unknowns, and no forecast of a century can be either complete or utterly correct.”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century

“Japan will need to foster deep”
― George Friedman, The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century