Norm Chronicles Quotes

“We don’t ‘see’ odds – how likely the thing is – we ‘see’ consequences. That’s what people would mean if they were to say ‘picture the risk’. They mean picture the worst that can happen.”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers about Danger

“But how many believe they’re average? Most think they’re better than that—a self-confidence known, naturally enough, as the “above-average effect” or “illusory superiority.”12 Like everyone else, even Norm once thought he was better than average. This is illusory for obvious reasons. For example, since only half of drivers can be in the top half, if exactly half of all drivers thought they were in the top half, they could in theory all be wrong. Even if you’re genuinely better, you might not be much better. And if above-average driving ability turns you into an above-average jerk, you might be so cocky that you become a bigger hazard.”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

“But caution can have unintended consequences. After the 9/11 attacks in New York, many people felt more nervous of flying and took to their cars instead. Psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer states that 1,500 more people than usual were killed on US roads over the following year.10”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

“Could we ignore it instead? The chance that a stranger will try to abduct Norm or any other young child is on average extremely small; the chance that the stranger will succeed is far lower than that. The chance that someone will murder your child is smaller again. For murder by a stranger of a child under five, even that risk drops 97 percent. If you are a parent, by far the biggest violent risk to your child, on average, is you.”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

“One accident that kills, say, 10 people gets far more attention than 10 accidents that kill 1 each. The 876 people each year who die on US tracks usually have little publicity, but imagine if they all occurred at once. . . .”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

“Comparisons between murder rates in the United Kingdom and the United States can be controversial, and differences in definitions create some uncertainty around them. For example, in the United Kingdom, it is only murder when someone is convicted of murder. In the United States, if there’s a body and officers suspect murder, then it’s counted as murder. As the FBI states, “The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body.”
― Michael Blastland, The Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death