Everything Is Predictable Quotes

“your response to new information is influenced by the beliefs you already hold.”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

“You may say that you assume perfect ignorance, but there are different kinds of “ignorance,” and you have to pick one”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

“if my prior beliefs are very different from yours, then the same evidence can lead us to entirely different conclusions. Which is how we can end up with profound, but sincere, disagreements on apparently well-evidenced questions about the climate, or vaccines, or any number of other questions”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

“Life isn’t chess, a game of perfect information, one that can in theory be “solved.” It’s poker, a game where you’re trying to make the best decisions using the limited information you have.”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

“humans mostly make good decisions—most of the time. They’re kind of fine, in like 90 percent of their decisions. If I want to buy a coffee, I’m capable of going to get one from the café”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

“The questions you can address with frequentist statistics are of no interest to researchers!” says Wagenmakers. “It gets the conditioning wrong. We don’t want to know how surprising the data is if the null hypothesis is true; we want to know the plausibility of the null hypothesis, now that we’ve seen the data. Ultimately, fundamentally, that’s the question.”
― Tom Chivers, Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World