The Click Moment Quotes

“If, as in the case of The Lord of the Rings, your idea or project has been swept up in a swirl of complex forces, doubling down is a necessity. You may have gotten lucky, but you need to take advantage of that luck. But that is not always so straightforward a move. In a conversation I had with entrepreneur and venture capitalist Randy Haykin, he told me that the most difficult thing about doubling down is that it requires “killing your darlings.” For a venture capitalist, at least, he said that for every company you double down on, you have decided to end your involvement in five other projects. “That is very difficult and I think the issue is we have a very hard time making that choice,” he said.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“If we find something that works, particularly something that seems to be swept up by complex forces, we need to double down. In this context, doubling down means that you invest time, money, reputation, or other resources into the project with the expectation that it will not only continue to be successful but in fact go big. You are, in other words, finally making some sort of prediction.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“The holy grail of complex forces is when success feeds on itself in a self-reinforcing loop or cascade. Although we can’t rationally figure out exactly how to trigger such forces, we can be prepared to harness them when they occur—assuming we are able to spot them in the first place.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“I’ve cast aspersions on forecasting algorithms previously in this book, but the type of real-time intelligence and fast response that Zara’s brings to its business is different. It does not presume that it can predict success. In fact, the entire model is based on the idea that it can’t know what will be popular. Instead, it tries to spot early signs of demand—that is what allows Zara to move quickly when it sees a fashion idea taking off.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“in this case that is exactly what it was.” Because it is impossible to fully control the events that occur around us, we must use complex forces to our advantage. The constant reshuffling of actions, desires, and consequences causes windows of opportunity to open and close unexpectedly. These windows provide a pathway to breakthrough success. They may not be open for long, however, so we need to be prepared to make a quick decision before complex forces cause conditions to shift once again.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“And therein lies the beauty of complex forces. The big opportunity is almost never what you would guess, because your best guess is based on the prevailing logic. Surprises are likely to harbor unexpected opportunities—the type that are a far cry from obvious. So much so that anyone who is not a party to the surprise would be hard-pressed to come up with anything like it.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“In order to harness complex forces you must first to create something for these forces to latch on to. You must actually do something, even if you are not sure where it will lead. This tactic is based on the idea that the most important part of a purposeful bet is the fact that you took action. Once you start executing, whether or not the bet actually works in your favor, you are exposed to complex forces that can pave the way for future success. Even if you do not have a crystal-clear goal in mind, it is still better to do something—and to tell people about it. The complex forces of the world will now have a concept to work with, and you will have exposed yourself to the possibility of positive unanticipated consequences, cascades, and self-reinforcing loops.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Just as you cannot engineer a revolution in the Middle East with only a well-directed slap on the face or jump-start the next eBay by selling Pez dispensers, you cannot plan for the exact click moments that will make all the difference for your career or your organization. But that does not mean that we cannot harness these types of complex forces. Even if you can’t purposefully ignite specific complex forces around your project, you can—and must—take advantage of those forces once they start acting.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“In chaos theory this cumulative impact is known as the butterfly effect, a phrase coined by Lorenz. The idea is that when a butterfly in India flaps its wings, the atmospheric pressure in the area is changed and, compounded over millions of interactions across the globe, can cause rain in Brazil. The butterfly effect exemplifies the complex way in which actions can have unintended consequences, cascades, and cycles that are excruciatingly difficult to predict.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“There is a third type of complex force, which I call a self-reinforcing loop, and I think it’s the most interesting of them all. Self-reinforcing loops are situations where past success continually reinforces future success. The initial success can sometimes be very, very small—just enough for other people to notice it—but this small initial win makes it more likely to become increasingly successful. If one is truly fortunate, such a loop will allow a person or an organization to not only reach greatness, but also make it difficult for others to emulate this particular pathway.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“The second type of complex force is what might be called a cascade. A cascade is an action that has consequences that spread far beyond anything predicted or expected, like the rings on the surface of water. The initial action can be very, very small, but its effects seem to take on a life of their own and propagate throughout society. These types of cascades are becoming far more common today with the increasing connectedness of people across countries and across fields. Social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter provide an infrastructure for viral trends to take off at an instant.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“The second type of complex force is what might be called a cascade. A cascade is an action that has consequences that spread far beyond anything predicted or expected, like the rings on the surface of water. The initial action can be very, very small, but its effects seem to take on a life of their own and propagate throughout society.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“What all of this suggests is that we should pay great attention to unexpected consequences. They indicate that we may have been fortunate enough to encounter something random, something we never would have figured on given even extensive analysis—something that might ultimately set us apart.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“We often consider unintended consequences as something undesirable, but this is just our natural resistance to randomness. Instead they can provide an amazing opportunity for us to avoid our predictable, instinctive reactions.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“The first such complex force involves unintended consequences. These occur when a person or organization takes an action expecting some sort of result, but the actual result is completely different than the one they expected, and sometimes even its direct opposite. Stiffer penalties intended to decrease incidents of drunken driving in the 1980s, for example, caused a short-term increase in hit-and-run accidents.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Creating click moments is one way for us to escape a predictable view of the world, and so is placing purposeful bets. Click moments allow us to find opportunities we may never have considered using a logical approach. When we make purposeful bets we view the world less like a machine working according to the laws of cause and effect and more like a game of chance. You can try a new approach or idea—and it may work or it may not. It is impossible to know with any certainty because we’re rolling the dice anew every time and exposing ourselves to the effects of randomness. Over the next two chapters we will look at a third way of harnessing randomness. Any action we take is likely to create a number of unintended consequences, ripple effects, and other unexpected outcomes that can have huge effects on our end results. The fact is that far more forces are at play in the world than we can ever keep track of or account for, and these forces interact with one another in myriad random ways that multiply their effect. I call these forces of randomness that allow for events and actions to change, build, and propagate in unexpected ways complex forces.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Sometimes events play out in a straightforward way, exactly according to plan. There is a simple cause-and-effect transaction: we act, and our actions bring the result we expect. Put a piece of bread in the toaster and press down. Two minutes later the toaster pops up and you have a nice warm breakfast. You are sitting in your car, idling at an intersection and waiting for the traffic light to turn green. It does turn green. You put your foot down on the gas and—predictably—the car starts to move forward again. This much is obvious. Unfortunately this predictability has convinced many people that the world behaves, more or less, like a machine; a complicated machine, perhaps, but a machine nonetheless. If we study this machine carefully we should be able to pull back the curtain that covers its mechanics and effect change in a far more thoughtful manner. But that’s not how most of the world works at all. We can never really be sure that pushing this button or pulling that lever will have the result we are looking for.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Sometimes events play out in a straightforward way, exactly according to plan. There is a simple cause-and-effect transaction: we act, and our actions bring the result we expect. Put a piece of bread in the toaster and press down. Two minutes later the toaster pops up and you have a nice warm breakfast. You are sitting in your car, idling at an intersection and waiting for the traffic light to turn green. It does turn green. You put your foot down on the gas and—predictably—the car starts to move forward again. This much is obvious. Unfortunately this predictability has convinced many people that the world behaves, more or less, like a machine; a complicated machine, perhaps, but a machine nonetheless. If we study this machine carefully we should be able to pull back the curtain that covers its mechanics and effect change in a far more thoughtful manner.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“It is critical, then, for organizations to screen an idea’s criteria based on the passion of the people involved. That is the best way to understand if they will have the wherewithal to keep placing many bets. Because the success of virtually every aspect of an organization, or even the world at large, is becoming increasingly random, it follows that it has become more important than ever to find and fuel the passion that drives you and your team.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“With the benefit of hindsight, everything seems obvious. But the reason these people did not connect the dots has to do with how connections and associations happen. The whole reason for bringing in Sargent’s software was to improve Microsoft’s own debugging program—it had nothing to do with fixing Windows. Our mind tends to keep separate concepts apart. It requires something unusual to spark the connection. The opposite of click moments are planned situations with expected outcomes. On their own, these don’t generate the chaos and randomness needed to discover new, unique ideas. They have a harder time shaking the box of concepts, projects, and ideas to form new combinations.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“made perfect sense for Microsoft to partner with IBM. But great strategies are not based on what makes sense. Rather, they are based on what sets you apart and what you can reasonably defend. Those types of insights are almost never the result of a logical calculation. Instead, small, fortuitous observations can tip the balance.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“These three types of random moves together can explain, at least in part, why successful people tend to be personable, hardworking, and somewhat talented. You have an easier time creating click moments if you connect with more people, something that comes naturally to social creatures. You have a simpler time making a successful bet if you try a lot of them, and hardworking people tend to be productive. And you are more likely to get caught up in complex forces if you are out in the world doing stuff, which is easier if you know how to do something well.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“You need to do something different in order to become successful and rise above the avalanche of competitors. Success in the future defies logic and prediction because it is and must be random.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“This book is about two very simple but highly provocative ideas. The first one is this: success is random, far more random than we have come to believe. The second is that there are a number of specific actions that individuals and organizations can take to capture randomness and focus it in our favor.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“At every step of the way, windows of opportunity opened and closed, some of them worked and others did not. Th e hallmark of a great career is never the brilliance of the person behind it—it is the person’s tenacious and stubborn willingness to keep trying until the chips fall in his or her favor. Work hard, try different things, stay unique, but never believe that you can predict what will happen next. Instead, stay open to the possibilities and be prepared to switch plans if things don’t go your way. Sometimes life simply throws you a lot of curveballs. But it is from those curveballs that new and exciting opportunities will start to emerge. You never know what awaits you.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Many of the lessons of this book are ones I had to discover through my own process of trial and error. Luck not only matters far more than we’d like to believe, but it is also our best chance to stand apart. As such, there is no one single master plan for success; every journey is unique.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“In 2011 Alabama passed a controversial law meant to curb illegal immigration and bolster the state’s economy. In 2012, the University of Alabama estimated that the law would eliminate upwards of 140,000 jobs, costing the state nearly $11 billion annually.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Creating diverse teams is one of the best ways to encourage click moments.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“when the cost of believing a false pattern is real is less than the cost of believing the genuine pattern, natural selection will favor the false pattern.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World

“Or in the words of the famous British historian Arnold Toynbee, “History is just one damn thing after another.”
― Frans Johansson, The Click Moment: Seizing Opportunity in an Unpredictable World