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Research Methods in the Social Sciences Quotes
Research Methods in the Social Sciences
by
Chava Frankfort-Nachmias78 ratings, 3.62 average rating, 10 reviews
Research Methods in the Social Sciences Quotes
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“Errors in Sampling Frames: The 1936 Presidential Election
Our discussion of errors in sampling frames would not be complete without mentioning
a classic example of sampling failure, the 1936 Reader’s Digest presidential poll. In 1936,
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, completing his first term of office as president of the United
States, was running against Alf Landon of Kansas, the Republican candidate. Reader’s
Digest magazine, in a poll consisting of about 2.4 million individuals, the largest in history, predicted a victory for Landon, forecasting that he would receive 57% of the vote
to Roosevelt’s 43%. Contrary to the poll’s prediction, Roosevelt won the election by a
landslide—62% to Landon’s 38%.
8
Despite the extremely large sample size, the error was enormous, the largest ever
made by any polling organization. The major reason for the error was found in the
sampling frame. The Digest had mailed questionnaires to 10 million people whose
names and addresses were taken from sources such as telephone directories and club
membership lists. In 1936, however, few poor people had telephones, nor were they
likely to belong to clubs. Thus the sampling frame was incomplete, as it systematically excluded the poor. That is, the sampling frame did not reflect accurately the
actual voter population. This omission was particularly significant because in that
year, 1936, the poor voted overwhelmingly for Roosevelt and the well-to-do voted
mainly for Landon.
9”
― Research Methods for the Social Sciences, Eighth Edition
Our discussion of errors in sampling frames would not be complete without mentioning
a classic example of sampling failure, the 1936 Reader’s Digest presidential poll. In 1936,
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, completing his first term of office as president of the United
States, was running against Alf Landon of Kansas, the Republican candidate. Reader’s
Digest magazine, in a poll consisting of about 2.4 million individuals, the largest in history, predicted a victory for Landon, forecasting that he would receive 57% of the vote
to Roosevelt’s 43%. Contrary to the poll’s prediction, Roosevelt won the election by a
landslide—62% to Landon’s 38%.
8
Despite the extremely large sample size, the error was enormous, the largest ever
made by any polling organization. The major reason for the error was found in the
sampling frame. The Digest had mailed questionnaires to 10 million people whose
names and addresses were taken from sources such as telephone directories and club
membership lists. In 1936, however, few poor people had telephones, nor were they
likely to belong to clubs. Thus the sampling frame was incomplete, as it systematically excluded the poor. That is, the sampling frame did not reflect accurately the
actual voter population. This omission was particularly significant because in that
year, 1936, the poor voted overwhelmingly for Roosevelt and the well-to-do voted
mainly for Landon.
9”
― Research Methods for the Social Sciences, Eighth Edition
