Gee’s Reviews > Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall > Status Update

During the centralization ​phase, when the elite/general population ratio is favorable, the imperial core elites ​are likely to be open to the entry
of peripheral aspirants - highly ​conducive to strong pressures for assimilation. Decentral​ization phase, imperial elites close their ranks against newcomers, who then have no choice but to build alternative power net​works, and challenge the established order.

the theory of ​asabiya - the capacity of a group for collective action. the ​hypothesis that asabiya increases on metaethnic frontiers and declines in the core ​regions of large polities

Heightened sociopolitical instability depresses birth rates, resulting in a smaller cohort and, consequently, less competition among the next generation. The next ​generation, therefore, does well economically, has a lower mobilization potential, ​but also produces a large number of babies. Such a mechanism should lead to an ​alternation of small/docile versus
large/belligerent generations.

selfish elite model: this model predicts that, in order for the state to be viable, it needs to keep a ​relatively low ratio of elites to commoners. The model, thus, makes a prediction that a centralization trend could not get going until the number of French nobles declined below a certain threshold.

Goldstone's theory of state breakdown is the mass mobi​lization potential
(MMP)
First, we can measure the degree of misery affecting ​the urban masses by the dynamics of real wages.
Second, a youthful age ​structure increases the mobilization potential of the crowd.
Third, urban growth ​concentrates the poor young sons, and thus could play an important multiplier ​role in further amplifying the popular discontent

Another consequence of rapid population growth is the expansion of youth ​cohorts. This segment of the population is particularly impacted by lack of ​employment opportunities. Additionally, the youthfulness of the population ​contributes to its mobilization potential.
Finally, elite competition and popular discontent fuel ideological conflicts.

In general, asabiya arises from "the social inter​course, friendly association, long familiarity, and companionship". This is remarkably
similar to the explanation of how social capital is ​acquired. However, not all social
conditions are equally conducive to the growth ​of asabiya