Dimitri’s Reviews > The Wars of Afghanistan: Messianic Terrorism, Tribal Conflicts, and the Failures of Great Powers > Status Update

Former defence minister Massood, veteran of the Soviet war & leader of the Northern Alliance, was killed 2 days before 9/11 by Tunisian suicide bombers who trained as journalists in Belgium.

WHAT IS IT WITH MY COUNTRY & HINDSIGHT ACCESSORY TO HIGH PROFILE POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS ??

The period 1991-92 could've been a victory for Pakistani moderates under UN aegis, but instead the Kabul saw battle in 1992 & 1996, both times with professional Pakistani support.

The barefoot mullah recruits of the Taliban knew early popularity; religious Law&Order was better than total banditry chaos. But Shia vs. Sunni massacres ruined that credit. their opponent, the Northern Alliance was defeated by 2000.

Pakistan's foreign policy, unfortunately, took a turn for the Sharia. It even tried to supply rebels around Kabul with rockets until the USA whistled it off. This pattern continues under the present conflict: a local ceasefire allowed Bin Laden to escape the Tora Bora caves, cornered by Pakistani-Afghan ground troops and the U.S. Air Force.

The BIGGEST missed opportunity in modern Afghan history occured after the ceremonial Soviet exit over the Friendship Bridge (into the Uzbekistan SR) around 1991-92 : an alternative policy of hosting US-Soviet talks, perhaps including Pakistan as the Ally/new local outside power, but excluding either way non-moderate Afghanis of all political denominations. Moderates saw a US presence as vital to prevent their rise.

The Afghan Army had already voted with their feet under Amin: half the effective had deserted, sometimes by brigade and often after massacring its own officer corps, or at least the Soviet 'advisors' attached, before fleeing into Pakistan.

The Soviet invasion had been the brainchild of the KGB, who had but a rudimentary grasp on the Afghan spirit (a common defect of determinism) & pushed for a Politburo decision by 12 december 1979. It became their christmas present.

Amin shorty perished in a poisonous Red Wedding of his own. Puppet rulers or not, the USSR was there to stay. "Sovietization" was followed in '86 by "Aghanisation" - similar to the USA's capacity building among allies today. Not that either policy abated Wahabi fury. It kept pushing until the last "defiant" tanks pulled out over the bridge on 15/02/89. Afghanistan morphed into the world's terror training haven.

When the 17th Armoured Division in Herat rebelled, it instigated nationwide minor revolts that the regime was too weak to supress on its own. The Moscow reflex as it would remain: angry, confused, more aid, more 'military advisors'... the U.S. meanwhile started discreet aid to the Muhadeens.

Taraki perished in blood in september '79, leaving a weakened Amin between a hostile Kabul and provinces overrun by rebels.

Moscow thus never found an Afghan political leader who, once in power, continued to be a faithful subordinate. Taraki & Amin started infighting. Repression and conscription caused both city flight (even Kabuli cinema lovers had to trade Hollywood westerns & Bollywood musicals for Russian fare) & internal migration. Among the refugees in the countryside, the agnostically ostracized Mullah's influence grew...

All Soviet attempts to export their model to Third World countries eventually failed. Marx' recipe for revolution, designed to fit onto the socio-economic structure of industrialized Western Europe, could not be reverse-engineered to more medieval and/or agricultural societies. [Try Russia without Petrograd & the Great War]