Geoff > Status Update

Good old '68 student uprisings, source of most Sponti-Sprüche.

A touching review by Simon, which confirms what I always thought: You're a hell of a good person, Manny.

PS: Marx ist die Theorie, Murx die Praxis.
[it's actually spelled Murks=a mess]

But seriously, can the universe give us a better metaphor for 2017 than a giant shadow falling across the US and dividing it in half? If it was fiction you'd not write it because it would be way too obvious.

God's such a ham, isn't He?

Why are people so reluctant to admit that Trump sympathized with Neo-Nazis and the KKK? His remarks have increased the possibility that he is, in fact, racist, yet even I can't say for sure. The alt-right certainly benefits from Trump's rhetoric. When the Ku Klux Klan approves of you, you know you did something wrong. Trump is an idiot

Trump may not be a Nazi but everyone who is a Nazi seems to like him

BREAKING NEWS: All stupid terrorists run home crying like stupid babies after president calls them "losers" on live TV.

ISIS Militants Reportedly Intimidated By President's Long Tie.

Barbara Lee was 100% right to vote no to the invasion of Afghanistan on 9/14/01. The other 420 Senators and Representatives were all wrong. Maybe if this were more widely acknowledged we could start to see a way out of the 'quagmire' Trump inherited.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...

“An incoherent wish list unmoored in political reality or principle.”

Bingo!

As usual he is following orders from the swamp which in turn has no idea how to get out of the mess after 16 long years.

I have previously written about the continued stupidity with which successive American presidents have made the same mistakes over and over again starting from Bush Jr when, months into the invasion, he lost his goal to take out Al-Qaida's leadership and instead took over the whole of Afghanistan - and for what? (And while we're at it, why the heck is Ayman al-Zawahiri still around?)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PGmn...

(Has anything changed from this Bush clip to Trump's babble yesterday?)

If I were a conspiracy theory believer, I'd say America wants to stay in Afghanistan permanently because it's strategically too important a place to just lose. With China and Russia at stone's throw and those "Islamic nukes" to keep an eye on, not to mention Afghanistan's vast mineral wealth, the Americans don't want to create conditions that would enable them to leave any time soon.

But conspiracies do happen in international imperial affairs, so who knows the complete stupidity might just be a deliberate plan.

David M wrote: Barbara Lee was 100% right to vote no to the invasion of Afghanistan on 9/14/01. The other 420 Senators and Representatives were all wrong.

Jibran wrote: I have previously written about the continued stupidity with which successive American presidents have made the same mistakes over and over again starting from Bush Jr when, months into the invasion, he lost his goal to take out Al-Qaida's leadership and instead took over the whole of Afghanistan - and for what?

It is true that it was a big mistake to invade Afghanistan. It was also a mistake to invade Iraq in 2003. I didn't like Bush, but compared to Trump, Bush seemed like a decent president. At least he didn't speak as incoherently as Trump does now (Bush still did very stupid things though)

Bush certainly didn't embolden the neo-Nazi far right in the way Trump has. On the other hand, so far Trump hasn't done anything as destructive as invading Iraq/instituting the war in terror. So at this point... I dunno. Kind of a wash.

Laura wrote: "It didn't like Bush, but compared to Trump, Bush seemed like a decent president. At least he didn't speak as incoherently as Trump does now (Bush still did very stupid things though) >

The economist John Kenneth Galbraith during the Bush presidency said that I look at George Bush and I yearn for Ronald Reagan. Today people look at Donald Trump and yearn for George Bush.

Hmm, a leading scholar and observer of civil wars around the globe gives America a sixty-five percent chance of falling into one over the next ten to fifteen years.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-de...

David wrote: "Hmm, a leading scholar and observer of civil wars around the globe gives America a sixty-five percent chance of falling into one over the next ten to fifteen years.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/..."
Interesting article. Thanks for posting.

A year ago, there was a swathe of articles predicting civil war *if Hillary won* because the right were the ones who were most armed and most angry and resentful. I recall one or two post-election pieces (don't have links to hand, would have to dig) saying that although the writers didn't like the Trump victory in most ways, it meant the country was likely to hold together for a bit longer, whilst the right-wing militia types, the ones most likely to kick off in a big way, felt they had a president who was more or less on their side.

In the last few months I've seen more stuff about violence from the America left, Antifa etc, almost like a Black Bloc attitude edging towards the activist mainstream. e.g. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/... But how much of that is scaremongering and hype..? I'm reading articles thousands of miles away, whilst a few of you actually go on demos in the US.
The implication seems to be that it's the left that has changed - or changed more recently and apparently suddenly than the right, and that's a significant factor in inflaming the situation in a way that those Nov-Dec 2016 articles didn't forsee.

(In the sidebar of that New Yorker article, there's a history of Antifa: http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-t... (not read this yet).

Jessaka wrote: "Another leading scholar says. Trump is taking steps fo become a dictator. We can have both. Trump would love a civil war and so would the south. Taking down confederate statues is reason to cause o..."

I don't really buy Timothy Snyder's line on this. Trump seems to be shaping up to be an extremely weak executive, more like a ceremonial Ubu Roi than a dictator. The chaos and failure of his presidency appears to be further empowering the military and other undemocratic institutions to govern. Doesn't appear to be any kind of Machiavellian plot on his part, just the entropy of American society.

Christopher wrote: "Could it not be cause to worry what could happen though if someone more competent actually wanted to be an evil tyrant? Trump may just be the fool testing the water before someone else comes into the pool with a cannonball."

Yeah, this came up in the run up to the election last year, didn't it? I think I remember Manny posting something to this effect, and read similar in one or two articles.

Transgender ban from the military codified, he pardoned Arpaio, and a Cat 4 hurricane in Texas. What a day.

At least Gorka is out. Who's next, Miller?

David wrote: "The chaos and failure of his presidency appears to be further empowering the military and other undemocratic institutions to govern. Doesn't appear to be any kind of Machiavellian plot on his part, just the entropy of American society. "

Exactly. One could be pardoned for giving a new title to stories of Gorka's dismissal. "Another Victory for the Swamp to Regain the White House."

The trouble is that the Swamp is fighting against SuperSwamp.

The left is in the mix to spice things up. I don't think that at the moment anyone in the corridors of powers is really worried about the left taking things further. They are in damage control mode, not preparing to fight a street battle. If there's going to be a civil war, or civil disturbance on a larger scale, that will happen courtesy of the alt-right.

To add to above, the civil war-like situation isn't the consequence of Trump's election but only a catalyst. Trump is a link in the chain of events that were set off many years ago, especially during Obama's presidency. American right shifted rightward to reclaim the exclusive white American space lost to minorities. Police brutality against blacks and things like Arpaio phenomenon was a subconscious expression of that frustration.

But it's worth noting that the developments in the US also coincide with the rise of rightwing nationalism in major nation-states across the world. Russia, China, India, Turkey - you name it.

As unpopular as Trump is, Hillary Clinton is even less popular. Congress's approval rating is a good bit lower than the president's.

Basically no one accepts the legitimacy of the political class or institutions that are supposed to ensure peaceful governance.

On top of that, large swaths of the population feel intense visceral loathing for other large swaths of the population.

American society does sort of look like a powder keg.

This is pretty worrying: http://mashable.com/2017/08/24/dreamh...

Is there any news coming out of the US that isn't worrying?

Hadrian wrote: "...he pardoned Arpaio..."

Really? Hmmm, what happened to what I heard, that presidential pardon is reserved for convicts who have already served a minimum of 5 years in prison, who have openly admitted guilt and expressed remorse for their crimes? Was that all nonsense, or was that a precedent followed by prior presidents which is non-binding and thus easily ignored by Trump, like the precedent of disclosing taxes?

It is known that Arpaio is a racist sheriff

Arpaio shouldn't even be pardoned

Trump would like to know whether I support socialized medicine. The "unbiased" poll includes this text:

This leftist dream is gaining more traction with the Democratic Party every day.

Even Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer agrees it should be on the Table.

We need to let these extreme leftist Democrats like Schumer and Bernie know that Americans refuse to support a "single-payer healthcare system."

The message intentionally positions this as a "government takeover of medicine" and uses the term "socialized", so obviously the purpose of the "poll" is not to gather data but to signal how to think about the question. Still, I think they're underestimating how much support Americans have for single-payer and Bernie Sanders, including Trump's so-called "base."

I'm sure you said, 'hell no, and I'll defend my right to not have healthcare with my gun,' right?

You can pry my right to not have the government force me to have healthcare from my cold, dead* hands!

*death may or may not have been caused by poor access to affordable healthcare

David wrote: "...so far Trump hasn't done anything as destructive as invading Iraq/instituting the war in terror..."

North Korea is a far bigger risk, not just to Asia and the US, but the whole world.

Carol. wrote: "Is there any news coming out of the US that isn't worrying?"

Nope. And yet there's a weird unreality: for many people it's still theoretical horror. Everyday life continues.

India is in a worse stage. We are having public lynchings on a regular basis.

Cecily wrote: Carol wrote: Is there any news coming out of the US that isn't worrying?

I live in the United States, so... Things are pretty scary with our president

Laura wrote: "I live in the United States, so... Things are pretty scary with our president"

We've just returned from a 16-day trip in the US, booked in autumn 2016. We met up with several friends (who I'm in touch with anyway), and conversations invariably turned to politics. They're all very anti-Trump Democrats, but despite the daily jaw-dropping news, there's still a feeling of calm-before-the-storm.

Want to be a little depressed today?
https://blackamericaweb.com/2017/08/3...

Yeah, apparently there are significant numbers of Trump supporters who blame Obama for Hurricane Katrina and it's disturbing how they seem to echo the very same factually-incorrect talking points.

Because they don't need no education by the liberal elite colleges. They can get all the news they need from Foxx.

It always astonishes me that they are immune the the irony that they disparage the media at the same time they get all their information from one media source.

I'm charitably hoping that there are only a small number of these people, and that the story has been given disproportional coverage due to its sensational nature. Surely even Trump supporters can usually keep track of when the last three presidents were elected?

Cecily wrote: "for many people it's still theoretical horror. Everyday life continues. "
What horror?

During the 2nd World War all the US citizens of Japanese origin went to internment camps. No outcry insued on their behalf.
Anybody got sent to internment camps already?

The Jugoslavia NATO bombings of 1999 which were sanctioned by the US president. Imagine clear spring/summer days, a city full of people and bombs falling on it. Any outcry on that particular horror?

Throughout Europe terroristic acts happen regularly these days. Don't remember seeing news about anyone in US getting mowed by any trucks except for that 1 situation at a demonstration which was not categorised as a terroristic act, I think. Is it just me or have there been no terroristic acts in US?

Whatever horrors you are talking about? Care to name some?

Misericordia wrote: "Cecily wrote: "for many people it's still theoretical horror. Everyday life continues. "
What horror?..."

I was a casual visitor, and I vaguely follow US politics from the UK. However, the various friends we visited along the way are horrified at issues relating to roll-back of various regulations for protecting the environment, regulating financial services, and minority rights. They are horrified at some of the deportations already made, and those to come. They worry about the long-term consequences of cut-backs to health and public education, and specifically, aspects of "science" taught. They are fearful about aspects of foreign policy - especially NK - in the hands of an inexperienced and impulsive leader. They are horrified at the apparent irregularities of this specific election, and wider issues of voter suppression and gerrymandering. The way the "swamp" is filling with Goldman-Sachs related people who seem to be lining their own pockets, along with the first family, repulses them them. The continual lies and hypocrisy that are impossible to keep up with. They are perhaps most fundamentally worried at the divisions that are becoming visible to them in American society, especially those with a racial angle.

I guess you put a very different angle on most of those points, though.

I would like for it to be acknowledged how wise I am for not letting myself get baited here.

That is all.

Zadignose, we just got back from Stockholm. I don't want you to take anything for granted here, but the Nobel committee were very impressed.

Jessaka wrote: "In Russia you had the Gulag. Anyone complain about that? "
Randolph wrote: "Ah, Soviets. "
Actually, they did, that's one of the things thy there is no Soviet Union anymore, even though Randolph might have missed that fact by several decades.

I would have been 'Russian propaganding' had I been talking about Russia. All the while I was asking questions about US. The last time I checked, the two were different countries. Could you answer, please, my questions, whithout histeria?

If you need to discuss Russia/Zimbabwe/any other country, let's do it later. Though I would have to make a disclaimer that I might be a better expert on Ukraine and not Russia. Ok?

Cecily wrote: ""
Cecily, thanks for answering my question. So, basically, people are not happy with legal stuff going on? The financial regulation and deregulation we'll have to see how these turn out, since regulation always leads to heavy externalities for people using the financial services, and deregulation leads to heavy systemic risks which ultimately hit the people hard as well. So no matter what you do there, you are damned since the banks will never side with layman people and will always work for own profit.

The NK thing fail was really funny, though. It's a good thing Trump was no Bush or we might have had a nuclear Iraq over there... Even though the overall handling probably could have been better.

About the stock options and stuff, I don't think your friends are knowledgeable of the matter. From what I gathered, both big and small investors benefited from this market going up. So it's not exactly Goldman adressed stuff, it's more like 'the economy changes trends' stuff. How is it bad? Sinking one's economy is not the recipe to shorten the distances between the rich and the poor.
And the market went up not because Mr Trump demonstrated some predisposition to Golden Sachs or whatever but because the government promised to increase domestic spending which is basically investing in one's economy. And investing expectations are usually taken as stimuli to up the prices.
Another thing is tax cuts which should benefit everyone, again, and which also sent the markets soar.
And the final thing on the point is that the markets are likely to not stay the current level for all times as some correction is expected (again, Reuters swears by it).
So, this 'theoreric horror' is just that, a theory? A neurotic one, at that? Nothing is actually happening and people are just reacting to change?

Jessaka wrote: "In Russia you had the Gulag. Anyone complain about that? "

I think everyone and their grandmother knows about the gulags and the mass scale oppression in the Soviet Union. What is not well known is that minorities in the United States, Japanese during WWII and ordinary socialists during the whole span of the cold war were widely treated as fifth columnists (Of course I am not talking about spies on the payroll of the Soviets).

This is where a universal truth should be acknowledged. Any state, regardless of its official political model or philosophy, regardless of whether it's a democracy or a dictatorship, would not hesitate to use brute force against its own people and curtail their freedoms IF they believe that the survival of the system is at stake. That point, fortunately, has not been reached in the US since the end of the civil war.

Zadignose wrote: "I would like for it to be acknowledged how wise I am for not letting myself get baited here.

That is all."

By any chance are you related to the hilarious Zefrank?

Misericordia, who do you think will win the Chess World Cup, starting tomorrow in Tbilisi?

(I want to see if you're a real Russian).

Manny wrote: "Misericordia, who do you think will win the Chess World Cup, starting tomorrow in Tbilisi?

(I want to see if you're a real Russian)."

I have no interest in chess, thank you. Let's discuss go, it's a lot more interesting, ok?

WassilyF wrote: "Misericordia's economic "analysis" which includes that increased deficit spending is good for the market and everyone should be sent to Brookings for immediate consideration. All the US has to do is spend infinite money; a DC offer to the people of "Come here and take whatever you'd like" is the guaranty of wide prosperity."
You should realise your words do not match my conclusions. People should really take to some studying before speaking. For instance, learning how to read might be beneficial to you, specifically.

I did not discuss deficit spending. What I discussed, was the markets behaviour, which quite obviously reacted positively to the prospect of the US domestic investments.

And as for the deficit spending, you should ask misters Obama and Bush and Clinton, why exactly there is deficit in the US. Deficits don't appear out of nowhere. People and their bad decisions cause them. Really, what the hell does one have to do in order to get the most advanced country of the world to become the said world's biggest debtor? I have no idea.
And this is not propaganda, YOU started this sleazy topic, not me.

And as for your booming flash, it's not particularly booming and even not flashing. Low interest rates have been with us since before 2010. Longer than Mr Trump, actually. Another thing is that the Fed Rate has just gotten higher, actually, not lower. You can see it for yourself, my dear: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-s.... See? And the markets still went up now. Right?

WassilyF wrote: "As to options, more correctly stated as derivatives, they are as useful as their purchaser's acumen and the financial substance of their issuer."
That's a truism. You can apply that statement to about anything. Since anything can be used or misused, and the use and misuse generally depend on one's acumen and cleverness and resources. So, it's probably a good thing you have heard about derivatives, though it's clear you should have heard more about them. We were talking here not about the generic derivatives but about the basis instruments for options, the ones that Cecily wrote about. The ones that were tied with the firms' stock values which went up with the market.

WassilyF wrote: "I would shop a bit prior to engaging this person as a financial advisor. "
Not interested. I don't care about advising anyone, much less undereducated trolls on a book site. Even my favourite one. So thank you, no, thank you.

Misericordia wrote: "Manny wrote: "Misericordia, who do you think will win the Chess World Cup, starting tomorrow in Tbilisi?

(I want to see if you're a real Russian)."

I have no interest in chess, thank you. Let's discuss go, it's a lot more interesting, ok?"

Absolutely! What do you think about the extravagant use of tenuki in the AlphaGo-AlphaGo games? Is it a genuinely different way to play, or just a weird move-order? And do you expect that its heavy use of tsuke plays will catch on?

Manny wrote: "Absolutely! What do you think about the extravagant use of tenuki in the AlphaGo-AlphaGo games? Is it a genuinely different way to play, or just a weird move-order? And do you expect that its heavy use of tsuke plays will catch on? "

I don't really like AIs and think we'll likely live to see the Terminator yet. And he's going to play go, among other things.

Tenuki is generally a control thing, from how I see it, it's usually employed to show the adversary that you have other plans other than what has been happening so far. So, If we are speaking about the same game, one is left to wonder if the 2 AGs had different databases or different processes or whatnot. Though maybe I underestimate the processes available to AIs these days and they already know how to wield emotion as a cognitive resource.

Misericordia wrote: "Tenuki is generally a control thing, from how I see it, it's usually employed to show the adversary that you have other plans other than what has been happening so far. So, If we are speaking about the same game, one is left to wonder if the 2 AGs had different databases or different processes or whatnot. Though maybe I underestimate the processes available to AIs these days and they already know how to wield emotion as a cognitive resource."

That might be true when people play people, but AIs have no feelings, so AG must be playing the tenukis for objective reasons. I played through most of the 50 AG-AG games, and it's always doing it. But I really have no idea why.

One possible explanation is it's just much more often correct to play tenuki than people thought, and you do it as a probe. I saw some expert commentary on one game which pointed in that direction.

Jessaka wrote: "Jibran wrote: "Jessaka wrote: "
but her purpose is to praise Putin, put down the U.S."
That's weird. I haven't used the Putin-word in this discussion. I also haven't spoken about Russia. There is also no purpose in this discussion, for me, at least. It's just a chat.
I also have on a number of posts reiterated that I happen to like the US even though my opinion of its politicians tends to be a bit on the low side.

Are you sure you are ok? You seem to be talking to yourself and attributing your words/thoughts to me. Get off of whatever you take now.

Manny wrote: "One possible explanation is it's just much more often correct to play tenuki than people thought, and you do it as a probe. I saw some expert commentary on one game which pointed in that direction. "
It's possible you are right. Still, it would show that the AI are either preprogrammed to do such probing or are teaching themselves to do that. Another thing that still bothers me is that only one of the 2 AIs involved did this. Of course they probably have some scenario-building mechanism in them and only one of them got the tenuki-scenario. But still, it's disconcerting.
You think soon we are all going to be out of jobs as the bots will be smarter than us by far?

deleted user wrote: " I'm going to make this my last post here as it takes more time than it's worth and you're just this week's most "exotic" asshole on a show with a Nielsen of zero.."

I take exception. I give this thread a Nielsen rating of at least 2.