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People become risk seeking when all options are bad.

23 - The Outside View: Take an outside view not an inside view or you will fall victim to the planning fallacy-assuming the best case scenario for you. It is better to look at the base-line case and adjust up or down if you are above or below average. Watch for the sunk-cost fallacy-'we cant quit now, we've done so much work.'

22 - Expert Intuition: When can we trust it? When the expert has practiced in a regular, high validity environment. I.e., not stock pickers or political pundits, but nurses and doctors

21 - Intuition vs. Formulas: PMeehl points out that formulas beat experts most times in making predictions; e.g. predicting future grades or price of wine. Carefully weighted variables are not necessary, equal weight to all factors works just as well. Marital stability = sex - arguments. Apgar does this, simple but accurate. But, after collecting objective data, "closing your eyes" and using intuition adds value

The illusion of validity, the illusion of skill. It's not that you are not an expert, it is that the world is not predictable.

Regression to the mean. If two variables are imperfectly correlated, one gets regression to the mean. Do well, and next time you do poor. Do poor, and your bond to do better. 'most smart women marry men not as smart as tem"

11 - Anchors: If you see a (unrelated) number, it will influence your answer to the next question. Why? System 2 moves away from the anchor to find the right answer, but stops too soon-adjustment. System 1 tries to make the anchor true, then sticks to close to it-associative coherence. This happens with house listing vs. sell price or donations to charity. But it also works with random anchors.

The Law of Small Numbers - Large samples are more precise than small samples and small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do. The best schools are small, but so are the worst schools. Small schools have more variability. But people are not sensitive to sample size, system 1 does not doubt. We make story as to why the school is good or bad.

System 1 does basic assessments quickly. It can to averages well, but not sums. Sums needs system 2. This is because system 1 represents categories by prototypes or sets of typical exemplars. System 1 can intensity match, e.g., if Julia learned to read at 2 years what is her college GPA. System 1 does more than you ask, like a shotgun. Ask to compare rhymes and you will also see the spelling.

A Machine For Jumping To Conclusions - When you see ambiguity, system 1 sorts it out. Looking at letters, and you will see more letters, not numbers. We want to believe, system 2 unbelieves, if it is busy we are more gullible. The halo effect is dirt impressions make us more prone to seconds.

Norms and Causes - System 1 quickly makes stories of cause and effect from what it experiences in the world.

5 - Cognitive Ease - Easy vs. strained. Repeated experience, clear display, primed idea, good mood all lead to cognitive ease. Cognitive ease leads to feeling familiar, true, good, or effortless. This is type 1. Lack of ease forces type 2. Yes, bad font makes people not go with gut but instead analyze with type 2 system

The Associative Machine - System 1 is associatively coherent; cognitive, emotional, and physical responses all occur quickly. For example, see the word vomit and you will experiences disgust. System 1 unconsciously responds to priming. For example, do a task involving words related to age and you will feel older and walk slower. Money priming leads to bad behaviors.

The Lazy Controller - Self-control and system 2 draw from the same budget of effort. If ask to do 23 x 78 while walking, one stops to do it. All variants of voluntary effort - cognitive, emotional, or physical - draw down a shared pool of mental energy. Called ego depletion. System 1 solves problem (wrong) do you hand it off to system 2 to check? 50-50 for Harvard students.

Attention and effort - Do hard calculations under time stress (system 2) and pupils dilate. Relax between tasks, and they shrink back down. Concentrating on system 2 can make you 'blind.'. Like the invisible gorilla. As you become skilled, energy use, and pupil dilation decreases.