Status Updates From How Not to Be Wrong: The Po...

I’m very confused as to what the point the statistician complaining about mediocrity in business is going on about. Low profits are actually the hallmark of a competitive, efficient market. Free entry apparently pushes down successful businesses but no one ever explains how. This is nonsensical

The criticism of Bayesianism is valid, that given “unknown unknowns” we tend to short circuit. However, I think Superforecasting by Tetlock gives perfect examples of people who CAN apply numbers to things without known probabilities. He only ever uses a contrived lab experiment to show people don’t always think that way.