Status Updates From How Not to Be Wrong: The Po...

Agak kaget ada contoh netflix pdhl buku terbitan 2014 dan setauku netflix belum sepopuler ky skrg hmm

Bab 9: the international journal of haruspicy
MINDBLOWNNN chapter ini relatable bgt dan ada contoh kedokterannyaa

note to self: page 124-129 bahas ttg purpose of statistics neyman & pearson vs fisher, seru tsab bisi mo baca lg kpn2 :)

mulai susah dicerna :' bab reductio

The title. It makes me laugh.

"Proving by day and disproving by night is not just for mathematics. I find it's a good habit to put pressure on all your beliefs... Believe whatever you believe by day, but at night, argue against the propositions you hold most dear."

last chapter, "How to be Right": pit Theodore Roosevelt against "Soonest Mended" poem by John Ashbery. action vs. acknowledgement of uncertainty? "Math gives us a way of being unsure in a principled way"

section “genius is a thing that happens” is a mildly digressive, but surprisingly refreshing, debunking of the glorification of genius. genius is a thing that happens (as the result of a village / teamwork / persistence and grit), not a person. the glorification of genius is esp prominent in math, but debunking it is a refreshing reminder for many other fields too!

I just read an entire section about this dude who did an experiment on dead fish and how their brains reacts to pictures of different human emotions AFTER THEY ARE DEAD and have never been as concerned for the scientific method as now

"dividing one number by another is mere computation; figuring out what you should divide by what is mathematics."

loved the examples of how you could tell a fake story using the right numbers, makes me doubt every percentage i've seen on medias

kind of 🤯 at all the voting systems and how they can yield different results. mostly florida 2000 as an example, if only this book came out after 2016... the irrelevant alternative and asymmetric domination effect, instant runoff voting and its difficulty for centrists, giving up on the search for truth and settling for a definition

“public opinion doesn’t exist” ... the majority preference doesn’t always meld into a definitive stance

How is the Law of Large Number works?

"Not by balancing out whats already happened, but by diluting whats already happened with new data, until the past is so proportionally negligible that it can safely be forgotten."

bahas regresi linear jd ingat skripsi:"

a nice caveat to the uncertainty around correlation and causation: in terms of policy, you can’t wait until you’re certain to make the policy. if there is a possibility of saving lives in the case that the causation is true, then the policy is worthwhile. “it’s not always wrong to be wrong” “if you never give advice until you’re sure it’s right, you’re not giving enough advice”

Terpantau masih bisa ngikutin

"not all curves are lines" this line hits me deep

finally picked up this book that ive last read years ago, remembered myself being very motivated learning the truths about math after watching Jordan's lectures on youtube haha

now fast forward to 2 years later -- still the curious kid w/ sadly no better understanding of math

not sure the exact page but somewhere in the intro:
"without the rigorous structure that math provides, common sense can lead you astray"

slow buildup to “correlation =/= causation” (surprised he didn’t say it outright. “the non-transitivity of correlation is somehow obvious and mysterious at the same time.” he recommends the “blood relation” analogy - the correlated variables may “share part of their DNA”, but you can’t conclude one causes the other. esp tricky for medical scenarios; lots of factors at play!

must be remarked that Galton was an unapologetic eugenicist, and Ellenberg pushes back on his own title. “There is real danger that, by strengthening our abilities to analyze some questions mathematically, we acquire a general confidence in our beliefs, which extends unjustifiably to those things we’re still wrong about.” timely to note with recent discussions around AI and racial stereotypes!

regression to the mean. for example: “artistic success is an amalgam of talent and fort tune, like everything else in life, and thus subject to regression to the mean. (these cases are complicated by the fact that novelists and musicians tend to get better with more practice)”

Great analogy to entrepreneurship: "For most people, opening a business is a bad bet... you are much more likely to fail than to succeed... And yet society benefits from a world in which people, against their wiser judgment, launch businesses... the utility of running a business...is not measured only in expected dollars. The very act of realizing a dream, or even trying to realize it, is part of its own reward."

"But the simplest explanation doesn't require much theoretical heavy lifting at all. Simply: buying a lottery ticket, whether you win or not, is, in some small way, fun...Economics isn't like physics and utility isn't like energy.It is not conserved,and an interaction between two beings can leave both with more utility than they started with...So play Powerball, if Powerball is fun for you.Math gives you permission!"

"This kind of irrational behavior is as unacceptable to ... economist[s] as the irrational magnitude of the hypotenuse was to the Pythagoreans. It doesn't fit their model of what can be; and yet it is. Economists are more flexible than Pythagoreans. Rather than angrily drowning the bearers of bad news, they adjust their models to fit reality." e.g. "deathbed" model; thinking of wealth in terms of classes...

Unexpectedly in these last few pages found the answer to my years-long wondering about "people make the best possible decision" principle in economics. Why is the lottery so popular even though the odds of winning are so clearly announced to be low?...

“you can be forgiven for not caring about 24-dimensional spheres and how to smoosh them together, but...”
“And if machine intelligences of the future can take over from us much of the work we know as research now? We’ll reclassify that research as ‘computation.’ And whatever we quantitatively minded humans are doing with our newly freed-up time, that’s what we’ll call ‘mathematics.’”

projective geometry, mathematical theory of communication, error correcting codes such as Hamming (all to explain the Cash WinFall situation)

most people have a nonlinear utils-money relationship. (lost the book 2 years ago, picking it back up on a new copy, thank goodness for goodreads updates to help me find where i left off)

Interesting so far, the writing is much more engaging than most “informative/nonfiction” books

Interesting so far, the writing is much more engaging than most “informative/nonfiction” books

ww2 plane engine and fusillade. if there are more bullet holes in the fusillage, you want to armor the engine because the planes with holes in the engine aren’t coming back.