The History Book Club discussion
PRESIDENTIAL SERIES
>
THE PRIMARIES, THE CONVENTIONS, THE ELECTION
message 51:
by
Bryan
(new)
Sep 10, 2012 04:50PM
Thanks, Bentley
reply
|
flag
Mod
Republican National Convention:
http://graphics.latimes.com/vignette-...
Democratic National Convention:
http://graphics.latimes.com/vignette-...
Thanks for those Bentley.Something that amuses me is the polling results....depending on which poll you see, both Obama and Romney will be the next POTUS. They fail to mention the polling population.....if you poll all Republicans, what do you think the results will be....and vice versa. I'm sure there is one polling group that is unbiased but which one?
Mod
Gallup has had critics on both sides of the aisles but the Democrats seem upset with them now. Polls are polls; you have to ask who are they polling and what their sampling looks like.
Overall, though it looks like Obama got more of a bounce from the convention than Romney did. Obama +5 versus Romney +1 and the favorability ratings for Obama really showed the bounce +10. All probably related to the like ability factor or the fact that many folks felt that the DNC had the more substantive convention.
Really hard to tell but the trending seems more of an advantage for Obama as of this week.
On the even of the Presidential election this looks like a good one to consider. Electoral Dysfunction: A Survival Manual for American Voters
by Victoria BassettiSynopsis
Imagine a country where the right to vote is not guaranteed by the Constitution, where the candidate with the most votes loses, and where paperwork requirements and bureaucratic bungling disenfranchise millions. You’re living in it. If the consequences weren’t so serious, it would be funny.
An eye-opening, fact-filled companion to the forthcoming PBS documentary starring political satirist and commentator Mo Rocca, Electoral Dysfunction illuminates a broad array of issues, including the Founding Fathers’ decision to omit the right to vote from the Constitution—and the legal system’s patchwork response to this omission; the battle over voter ID, voter impersonation, and voter fraud; the foul-ups that plague Election Day, from ballot design to contested recounts; the role of partisan officials in running elections; and the anti-democratic origins and impact of the Electoral College. The book concludes with a prescription for a healthy voting system by Heather Smith, president of Rock the Vote.
Published in the run-up to the 2012 election, Electoral Dysfunction is for readers across the political spectrum who want their votes to count.
We may all be consulting the electoral college map tomorrow so here it is ~ 
The Electoral College
The Electoral College is the institution that officially elects the President and Vice President of the United States every four years. The electors are chosen by each state of the United States and by the District of Columbia, but not by other territorial possessions of the United States (such as Puerto Rico). The number of electors is 538, based on the total voting membership of the United States Congress (435 Representatives and 100 Senators) and three electors from the District of Columbia. Article II, Section 1, Clause 2 of the Constitution specifies the number of electors to which each state is entitled and state legislatures decide how they are chosen.
Voters in each state and the District of Columbia cast ballots selecting electors pledged to presidential and vice presidential candidates. In nearly all states, electors are awarded on a winner-take-all basis to the candidate who wins the most votes in that state. Although no elector is required by federal law to honor a pledge, in the overwhelming majority of cases each elector votes as pledged. The Twelfth Amendment provides for each elector to cast one vote for President and one vote for Vice President. It also specifies how a President and Vice President are elected. The Twenty-third Amendment specifies how many electors the District of Columbia is entitled to have.
Critics argue that the Electoral College is inherently undemocratic and gives swing states disproportionate influence in electing the President and Vice President. Proponents argue that the Electoral College is an important, distinguishing feature of federalism in the United States and that it protects the rights of smaller states. Numerous constitutional amendments have been introduced in the Congress seeking to alter the Electoral College or replace it with a direct popular vote.
source and more information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_S...
Thanks for that information, Alisa. It is a controversial process to say the least.
Alisa wrote: "We may all be consulting the electoral college map tomorrow so here it is ~ The Electoral College
The Electoral College is the institution that officially elects the President and Vice President ..."
HI guys, I just wanted to point out that the electoral college map posted above is outdated. The new one that reflects the most recent 2010 census can be found at the link below. Sorry, I don't know how to insert a picture!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epol...
A gentle reminder for all U.S. citizens in our group, please vote :-).We will see if we need to create a new thread for this topic or edit the Obama thread.
Thanks.
Thanks for the updated map and additional info. Thanks.
The postmortems are coming in!I am on vacation and decided it was time to take a short detour from my sequential read of US history, jump ahead 160 years, and indulge my addiction to politics. I'm enjoying the Balz book so far, and think it will keep me going for a few months until the Halperin & Heilemann book is released.
The news stories told us that the Obama campaign raised and spent a lot of money in 2011--relatively early compared to past campaigns. Balz helps to explain how much of that money was spent: they were geeking-up in a very big way.
Collision 2012: Obama vs. Romney and the Future of Elections in America
Synopsis
"Four years ago, a bright young presidential candidate named Barack Obama campaigned on a theme of hope and change, and made history. Today, he finds himself in another bitter, divisive presidential race but without the buzzwords. Instead, an embattled president struggles with a dysfunctionally divided Congress, the controversial healthcare bill, a decade-long war, and a stagnant economy.
Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, former corporate tycoon and former governor of Massachusetts, faces his own controversies in the form of vague policies, fluctuating positions, and questions about his business practices in the private sector. Romney’s personal fortune and business background seemed at odds with the Republican base until he named Wisconsin congressman, Tea Party darling and fiscal conservative Paul Ryan as his running mate.
Using sources deep inside both campaigns and on the campaign trail through primary and battleground states, Washington Post correspondent Dan Balz writes with a keen political mind and a seasoned reporter’s ear. He traces the highs and lows of the Obama presidency as well as the ruthless Republican primary as both laid the groundwork for one of the most crucial, contentious elections of our time. Collision 2012 puts the race for the White House in context and explores just what the election means for the future of the democratic process and America."
by Dan Balz (no photo)Scheduled for release in November
by
Mark Halperin and
John Heilemann
Thanks Becky, I was wondering when the books will come out now.
The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election
by John Sides (no photo)Synopsis:
"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest--and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election--with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis. Instead, they draw on extensive quantitative data about the economy, public opinion, news coverage, and political advertising to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. Combining this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, they provide the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written--and the only book of its kind.
Which mattered more--Barack Obama's midsummer ad blitz or the election year's economic growth? How many voters actually changed their minds--and was it ever enough to sway the outcome? The Gamble answers important questions like these by looking at the interplay between the candidates' strategic choices--the ads, speeches, rallies, and debates--and the chance circumstances of the election, especially the economy. In the Republican primary, the book shows, the electioneering and the media's restless attention did matter, producing a string of frontrunners. But when Obama and Mitt Romney finally squared off in the general election, there were few real game-changers. The candidates' billion-dollar campaigns were important but largely cancelled each other out, opening the way for Obama to do what incumbents usually do when running amid even modest economic growth: win.
An election book unlike any other, The Gamble is a must-read for political junkies, analysts, journalists, consultants, and academics.
Mod
2016 Primary Schedule
The 2016 Presidential primary schedule is currently being assembled.
The dates below are subject to change as states make their final decisions regarding which day to hold their primary contests. Please use our contact form if you see incorrect information and can provide a link to accurate information. This page will be updated as the calendar is finalized.
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016.
January
Monday, January 18 Iowa caucuses
Tuesday, January 26 New Hampshire
February
Tuesday, February 2
Colorado caucuses
Minnesota caucuses
New York
Utah
Saturday, February 6 Nevada caucuses
Saturday, February 13 South Carolina
Tuesday, February 16 North Carolina
Tuesday, February 23 Michigan
March
Tuesday, March 1
Colorado caucuses
Florida
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Saturday, March 5 Louisiana
Tuesday, March 8 Alabama
Hawaii Republican caucuses
Mississippi
Ohio
Sunday, March 13 Puerto Rico
Tuesday, March 15 Illinois
Missouri
Tuesday, March 22 Arizona
April
Tuesday, April 5
Maryland
Washington, DC
Wisconsin
Tuesday, April 26
Connecticut
Delaware
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
May
Tuesday, May 3 Indiana
Tuesday, May 10
Nebraska
West Virginia
Tuesday, May 17
Kentucky
Oregon
Tuesday, May 24
Arkansas
June
Tuesday, June 7
California
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
Tuesday, June 28
Utah
States with no firm dates:
(Some states may be listed with tentative dates)
Georgia
Idaho
Kansas
Maine
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
South Carolina
Washington
Wyoming
Last update: 1/8/15
Read more at http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews...
Mod
Let's get ready to rumble.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/a...
The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced that it intends to invite the yet-to-be-declared candidates to a debate on September 16, 2015. It will be the third presidential election in a row that the Reagan Library in Simi Valley will host, and judging by the long list of contenders who are considering a White House bid, it could be a free-for-all.
Source: The Atlantic
Mod
Josh Putnam, Guest Columnist October 10th, 2013
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crys...
Source: University of Virginia Center for Politics
Mod
The Starting Gun: Your Guide to the 2016 GOP Primary Field
TIME Staff Nov. 5, 2014
http://time.com/3556624/republican-pr...
Mod
RNC rolls out 2016 debate schedule
The committee plans to partner mainstream organizations with conservative commentators and outlets.
By James Hohmann and Alex Isenstadt
1/16/15 1:27 PM EST
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01...
Here are the nine debates that have been sanctioned, with the caveat that negotiations to finalize the details are ongoing:
1. Fox News, August 2015, Ohio
2. CNN, September 2015, California, at the Ronald Reagan presidential library
3. CNBC, October 2015, Colorado
4. Fox Business, November 2015, Wisconsin
5. CNN, December 2015, Nevada
6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa
7. ABC News, February 2016, New Hampshire
8. CBS News, February 2016, South Carolina
9. NBC/Telemundo, February 2016, Florida
Three more are pending:
10. Fox News, March 2016, location TBD
11. CNN, March 2016, location TBD
12. Conservative Media Debate, date TBD, locations TBD
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01...
Mod
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinion...
Yep, we are gearing up, aren't we? Thanks for updating this folder...more to come.
Mod
Mod
There seems to be plenty of fodder to discuss this go round.
Mod
http://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
And Real Clear Politics
http://www.realclearpolitics.com
I watched the debates on both sides in the beginning when the field was larger. I haven't watched the last few because it seems like it's the same arguments over and over and certainly on the right it seems to be more bashing of each other than real political debate. I'll likely start watching again when it's down to the Republican vs. Democratic candidate. I will be curious to see if anyone emerges from another party. I know Bloomberg had considered running as an independent but looks like he won't after all.
I can't say that I'm jazzed about any of them.
I wouldn't even know where to start re: the election circus this year. It truly is amazing and not in a particularly good way. Think about the candidates......Trump, who seems to have no substantive policies, a billionaire hated by the party but loved by the people,; Cruz who is not popular with his party either but is no dummy; Rubio, hanging on by his fingernails and starting to use the "insult" politics of Trump; John Kasic who is a good governor but is so low key that nobody knows him but can use the electoral votes in Ohio which he should win, to do some negotiating; Hillary, who seems to have lots of baggage and is supposedly being investigated by the FBI; and Bernie Sanders, a Socialist who has surprised everyone by capturing the imagination and support of the young voters.Where does that get us, especially on the Republican side.....a brokered convention? Possibly......the smoke filled back room of deal making. This is going to be interesting and hopefully we can start a neutral political conversation here, Remaining civil can sometimes be tough when discussing politics (and religion)!!!
I've seen some articles saying that Jesse Ventura may throw his hat in the ring if Bernie Sanders doesn't win. Not sure how viable the sources are, so I won't post here.
Well said, Jill. It's actually a little frightening.
Mod
It seems like the pre primary "stuff" and the large Republican list of candidates wore folks out somewhat. I think it was tiring. The League of Women Voters use to run the debates and they were true debates at that time and the candidates agreed not to interfere but be a participant in a real debate. You could understand the candidate's positions more because every person was answering the same question about the same issues and you could compare and contrast. Now with the networks running it - to me it seems more like entertainment television.
Mod
I think what it will get down to - is the platform of the party. One has to ask themselves which platform is better for them? The candidates are going to follow the established platform of their party. That is what they do.
At least we have been spared a third party run by Michael Bloomberg. I had not heard about Jesse Ventura.....surely he must be kidding.I agree it will get down to the party platform but the question is who will be the Republican candidate who has to support it? That's when the deal making starts.
And someone please tell me exactly why Mitt Romney felt moved to make that speech the other day? I know that he is very anti-Trump but I felt he demeaned himself.
I couldn't agree with you more re: the debates, Bentley. Using the word "debate" is very misleading since there was no debate but instead you had candidates slinging mud at each other. I'm not sure I heard one thing that offered any solutions for the problems that need addressed. I could get up on the stage and say "I will fix the poverty problem" but don't I have to say how I am going to do it?
Mod
Because Romney is chomping at the bit to get another shot no matter what he had to do.
These are no debates - I went to the Presidential library (Kennedy) and viewed his debates and I have to tell you - everybody looked a lot smarter than what we are subjected to now - these so called debates are almost becoming like reality show entertainment.
The Kennedy debates were just that - and the responses that he gave were unbelievably coherent, intelligent, dense with information, etc. and there was the back and forth between candidates which is what a debate is all about.
What I have been seeing are free for alls. And entertainment news and cable networks asking questions with gotchas embedded in them to embarrass the candidates.
If this is the best that America has to offer any longer in terms of substance - then there is a deeper issue afoot.
I had heard that Romney thought the party might approach him to be the candidate. He has lost twice so why would he think that even in desperation that the Republicans would put him up one more time? I hate to say this, and there are exceptions of course, but once you are a loser, that sticks to you like glue....a loser and that doesn't bode well for one's future in politics. And he got beaten badly so the perception of him is not favorable. I thought the speech was a mistake, if anybody really cared. I'm sure he is a fine man but he is history, yesterday's news.
Mod
However, he is not coming across as the caring individual that I heard he was - in fact unfortunately he comes across as more rigid or inflexible. The dog story for example did not do him any good and for that matter who puts their dog on the roof of a car (even if it is in a crate)?
I too thought that the speech was a mistake - he came across as a person who knows better than the American populace. Maybe that is true (smile) - but that approach will not garner him any votes.
I am not sure if you saw the Saturday Night Parody but it was very funny.
https://youtu.be/nAwXuJKEBv4
Bentley wrote: "Teri wrote: "I watched the debates on both sides in the beginning when the field was larger. I haven't watched the last few because it seems like it's the same arguments over and over and certainly..."The old phrase was something like, "Whatever sells newspapers." It really seems to me that certain of the media want to be stars more than they want to be journalists. The relationship goes both ways. Politicians who condemn the liberal media will kill for a spot on CNN. I watched Tom DeLay say to Brooke Baldwin of CNN, "Of course, you are the exception, Brooke, but the liberal media ..." She then cut him off with words basically telling him that was enough. Sounded to me like she was warning him: Be nice or I won't invite you back. But she will. They feed off each other.
Jill wrote: "I had heard that Romney thought the party might approach him to be the candidate. He has lost twice so why would he think that even in desperation that the Republicans would put him up one more tim..."Jill, your comment and Bentley's about Kennedy's debate transcripts reminded me of Richard Nixon. He did keep coming back until he got elected. Twice. The exception always does prove the rule, doesn't it?
I do agree that Romney wants back in.
Bentley wrote: "I think he is a fine man - at least folks who really know him have said that - I do not know him personally - but a cousin of mine worked at Bain Capital and did - she liked him so I will add that ..."I've also heard that his daughters-in-law are told to let him win at the competitive sports played at the annual family gathering.
Mod
Portia you make a valid point about the 24x7 newscasters. And of course - all of these candidates love to be on television and court the media (all types)
Mod
Well that is chauvinistic and disappointing.
Bentley wrote: "Portia wrote: "Bentley wrote: "I think he is a fine man - at least folks who really know him have said that - I do not know him personally - but a cousin of mine worked at Bain Capital and did - sh..."This is the article I was remembering.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...
I don't think Romney is a bad person. I just think he's locked in the 1950s and has a good dollop of the ego needed to believe you can be president.
Mod
Probably - but you know he has tried this Presidential thing before and it did not work out for him and he did lose big. So there is something about him on media which does not transmit well to the majority of the electorate. He and all of his family are very nice looking and clean cut. They remind me of the Al Gore family in many ways. And in someways Romney has the same problem that Al Gore did in connecting to people via the media.
Bentley wrote: "Portia, I think you are right but according to the article - he does like to be competitive for sure and likes to have his own way. You know I never thought about it but your comparison of Romney to Al Gore is spot on. Neither could seem to capture the public mind .....they did not come across in the media at all. I don't know if their image was any different in person but somehow I doubt it. There was no "fire" in either of them and almost a blandness. Television was not a good medium for them.
Mod
I'll just drop a line here so that I get thread updates on the 2016 primary discussion to go along with our HBC read of Unreasonable Men: Theodore Roosevelt and the Republican Rebels Who Created Progressive Politics. I'm looking forward to a history-linked discussion of this year's tumultuous political season. I'll add more thoughts as we get deeper into the book. 
by
Michael Wolraich
I'm adding two books that shed interesting light on the recent histories of the Republican and Democratic parties. The Party is Over came out a couple of years ago. The author is a long time Republican staff member who used to work for John Kasich. He is particularly scathing on the way the GOP betrayed its constituents, using social issues as decoys to distract the base from the real agenda. Listen, Liberal, published in 2015, tells a similar tale from the Democrat's side and explains why the party establishment essentially shifted its allegiance away from unions and blue-collar workers. Both are amusing reads in a grim sort of way and both seem very prescient seen from the halfway mark in the 2016 primaries. 
by Mike Lofgren (no photo)
by
Thomas Frank
Mod
It might be because I just continued the discussion from the previous primaries and thought it would be interesting for folks to read through the previous primary notes but feel free to add anything you would like here to get things going.
Mod
Thank you Hana - I will add them to my long "to be read" list.
The History Book Club
Books mentioned in this topic
Tension City: Inside the Presidential Debates (other topics)The Party Is Over: How Republicans Went Crazy, Democrats Became Useless, and the Middle Class Got Shafted (other topics)
Listen, Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People (other topics)
Unreasonable Men: Theodore Roosevelt and the Republican Rebels Who Created Progressive Politics (other topics)
The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election (other topics)
More...
Authors mentioned in this topic
Jim Lehrer (other topics)Mike Lofgren (other topics)
Thomas Frank (other topics)
Michael Wolraich (other topics)
John Sides (other topics)
More...
