The Indie Bubble - Will It Burst?

[K.A.]

Took some time this weekend to meditate on Sales Trends as posted to Kindle Boards.

I think we are seeing a Trend.

http://jordanscroft.blogspot.com/2011...

PS - posted this to Kindleboards as well. Let's see what happens. I'm in a mood for a fight.

[Amos]

Pretty sure it will be some major ups and downs, but ereader numbers are going up, seems to be new readers coming on line (that don't necessarily look for names) and the back-lists are a finite resource. Some older pieces also hold up better than others.

There is such a glut at the moment that you must see a slow down. It will put off a lot, but the terminally stubborn will keep at it.

I don't seem to be part of the bubble, so I probably won't notice it pop. lol.

[Amos]

I don't quite understand 'packing it in'. Like, where the heck do they think they are going to go from here?

[K.A.]

I'm not part of the bubble either. Maybe there is hope for us?

I've been seeing 'meltdown' posts and books that I've reviewed have vanished. Brenda Sedor for example has unpublished her category romance 'Snake in Paradise.'

[Patricia]

Kat, I've unpublished some books -- but it has nothing to do with the issues raised here. Also, I know of others who unpublished when they had a traditional publishing deal underway.

If a writer decides to stop writing because of a lack of sales, I don't think that writer is really a writer. Writers write because they have to.

[K.A.]

That's a good point.

I've always been driven that way. It never seems to leave me alone for long.

[James]

I'm sure Andre and a few others have been predicting this kind of thing for awhile now. Certainly I have - it's not a crash, just a gradual deflation to realistic levels. Hopefully.

But, like that guy in Jurassic Park who said all the dinosaurs would get out, no one listened...

[K.A.]

I think for the people with the e-books that took off like comets - it's going to feel like a crash.

The rest of us won't notice the difference. LOL It will be slow but steady.

[Patricia]

Maybe we'd be better off if we never checked our sales, and just buckled down to writing. I say that on a day when once again I am avoiding writing...

[K.A.]

Watch out, Patricia, I might just spam you with my WIP - give you an excuse to Not Write for a whole day.

Then you'll shake your head and say 'I can do better than that.'

[Patricia]

Only trouble is, I'm having lots of trouble reading. Can't concentrate (which then translates to having trouble concentrating on writing). I start things, stop, and immediately forget what I've read or written.

[Ardyth]

If the "bubble" has involved people slapping up books that aren't ready just because books in general are "selling" then I don't see that it popping is a bad thing. The serious writers will keep writing and publishing and perhaps people will start actually making sure their work is polished before they dump it into the market.

Honestly, it makes me think of the stock market, It's better to be slow and steady and play for the long haul.

[Andre Jute]

Kat wrote: "I think for the people with the e-books that took off like comets - it's going to feel like a crash.

The rest of us won't notice the difference. LOL It will be slow but steady."

Some of the whiners about low sales in September still have three times the sales they had at Christmas last year. What they're whining about is not having four times the sales of Christmas, as they had in July. They should stop and listen to how stupid they sound.

Those who rise like rockets will fall like sticks. (With apologies to John Keats.)

[Katie]

Andre wrote - "Some of the whiners about low sales in September still have three times the sales they had at Christmas last year. What they're whining about is not have four times the sales of Christmas, as they had in July. They should stop and listen to how stupid they sound."

I'm so glad you said that. I thought maybe I was the only one who gets annoyed by threads saying 'I'm not selling' and then complaining that they've dropped to only 40 sales a day.

I should be so lucky.

[Amos]

Well if you 'drop' to 40 sales a day you might as well be not selling. lol. Poor things.

I suppose if they are selling for 99c on Amazon and getting 30c a copy that would be a pain.

[Katie]

That's still $12 a day more than I'm getting (*whine, whinge, grumble...*)

[Amos]

Well, that's true. I haven't sold anything today either (well, not on smashwords), but I have given away a couple. It's all good. :)

[K.A.]

I hand sold 4 books during the Second Saturday festival.

That's it for the month.

[Katie]

We're about even then. Let's look at the bright side...we haven't got far to fall if the bubble bursts. We won't even feel a bump! :)

[K.A.]

LOL - not a bit.

I am trying to get a new cover for 'Swallow the Moon' with the artist Andre recommended.

There has to be SOMETHING I can do that will make that book take off. It's so much better than the first one.

The problem is the more I invest - the higher the price has to be. I can't justify $.99 or at this point, $2.99 after all this.

[Katie]

I'm wondering if putting Treespeaker up to $2.99 might not make more serious fantasy fans more interested? Maybe they think 99c will be rubbish.

[Amos]

I had 4 on the weekend, plus some freebies. It's a bit slow, but I don't think the sky is falling. Twitter can be great, but it's a huge time sink.

[K.A.]

I would push the price higher. $1.99 didn't work for me.

[Andre Jute]

$2.99 has a great deal of support in the indie community.

[Amos]

I went from 99c to $3.99 on one novel and sold more straight away. Seriously. Others are at $2.99 and they trickle along just fine. I only put 99c on a short, or just freebie it. Thinking of just $2.99 across the board.

[Katie]

Maybe I'll experiment up to Christmas. If I sell less, it can't be that many less, because I'm not selling many now! (Though I've not done much marketing this last two months.)

[Amos]

Well, mine are selling at $2.99 and $3.99, so I don't think that is a bad price. I think I had a total of about 2 sales when I had the novel at 99c. lol. Therese has been buying 50-60k short novels at $2.99 to $3.99 and she is not even a big reader until just lately. She is loving the indie books out there though.

At least at $2.99 you get a bit per novel and I don't think you will sell any less really.

[K.A.]

I've got "Swallow the Moon" at $4.95 because I've got so much invested in the two books.

I've got to get the money back from somewhere. 'Lunch' is $3.50, 'Bravado' is $.99 because it's a short story.

When 'Lunch'comes out as a paperback I'm going to price it at $9.99. Which reminds me - I need to re-read the new proof.

[Amos]

99c is fine for a short. If it's really short, or for a specific market like the dog agility guys, I just freebie it. I personally don't buy an ebook if it's over $5 unless it's something really special. I lost a couple of old paperbacks I really like, but I won't buy the ebook at $6. lol.

[Amos]

As for marketing, I have been having fun playing with a few things. It's interesting that a couple of twitter posts will give me 50-60 hits on the book straight up. It doesn't necessarily translate to sales, but it's nice to see people are clicking out there. Had a few sales from one on one contact there, which was interesting. FB on the other hand doesn't seem to do very much, even if you post in all the high volume places. In the end you need to get the brand out there and have people talking about it, and that's a long haul. Will be interesting to see what the next couple of years are like.

[K.A.]

We know that rate of growth is mathematically prevented from continuing for even three more years (because it would put ebooks at 160% of publishers’ revenues if it did!)

Maybe this is the underlying concern - Mathematically it can't go on like this forever.

I re-opened my Twitter account to watch #OccupyWallStreet before they became 'NEWS' it was a very small protest. Now who knows what will happen.

[Amos]

Twitter has been great for wall street, and other events. We have nothing on the news here about it.

[K.A.]

I know - 10 days before it was picked up on the NEWS. Then for some bonehead macing some girls.

It is currently disorganized - but eventually someone well vested in Economics will join them. This could take months - but it COULD change the world.

These are Echo Boomers - they've learned from the Hippie Generation.

It is worth watching!!

[Seb]

Kat /Andre

Congrats on the quality of the debate on Kat's blog. I think that you've captured the pros and cons of this proposition very well.

However, it's a moving feast, centering on the growth of amazon as a power player. As it gets stronger, can it dictate terms to both the indies (easy) and the big 6 trad publishers (not so easy).

Here are two links -

The Guardian newspaper selects JB as the most powerful person in publishing:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2011/...

The Bookseller on amazon's pressure on trad publishers to offer up 90% discounted books for October 17th campaign:

http://www.thebookseller.com/news/ama...

Best wishes


Seb

[Ardyth]

Interesting debate. I'm considering the $2.99 price myself for my new book. My publisher has mine at somewhere between $4.79 and $5.99 depending on the distributor, and I don't see many sales at that price.

I have to admit as an author the whole extremely low price thing worries me some, but as a buyer, I'm also more likely to buy books I wouldn't otherwise... leaving me torn.

[Andre Jute]

Thank you for the kind words, Seb. Unfortunately the rest of your message is not so soothing:

"JB as the most powerful person in publishing"
That is the most frightening thing I've heard all year, a magnified barrowboy as "the most powerful person in publishing".

What has happened to literarure?

This guy has it spot on; it is very, very close to being too late for publishers to make their stand:
------------------
By Fred
"price is the only promotional game in town when it comes to e-books" - how utterly wrong can one person be? If that is what our agents believe then just give the damn content away. Let us set up a central blog repository and all writers drop their stuff in for free. If price is the only promotional tool then we may as well get to the end game now.

Publishers, grow a pair and stop dropping your pants to this bully. You need to make a stand somewhere and at 90% you're already too late. Spineless wimps.
------------------

[Andre Jute]

From Derek Haines:
I can't help but notice that Amazon like toying with other people's margins while keeping their own safe and secure. You can bet your bottom dollar the Kindle itself will not be participating in the campaign at 90% off!

[K.A.]

Looks like Bob Meyer had a big drop in sales, too. He's also looking at the success of Indie books and wondering if the bubble has burst.

http://writeitforward.wordpress.com/2...

[Andre Jute]

Interesting remark about how Bob outsells WEB Griffin because he prices at $2.99 and Griffin is agency-priced. I was once approached by a New York agent to write a series to compete with Griffin, for which he had a publisher on the line. I declined the offer; there may be faster ways of committing literary suicide but I cannot offhand think of them.

[K.A.]

I wiki'd, Griffin. He wrote a lot of books.

I see where trying to hit his niche would be very difficult.

[S.M.]

I don't think there is a bubble to burst for most of us. I agree with the comment that writers write, regardless of sales. I am tickled to offer my books and stories for sale, and if I self-pub, I can even offer them at a reasonable price.

And let me just say that my "traditionally published" book have made very little money. I think I saw $25 from my paperback sales in 2010. Ugh. Trouble there is that I'm with a small press whose product is over-priced. My EBOOKS are 9.99! (and no one is buying them, of course, no matter if they are good or not).

What I think and hope will happen to indie publishing is this: the crappy writers won't make any money so they will stop publishing their crappy books.

I think the indie market might experience a slow down purely because well-written indie books are hard to find. I can't tell you how many times I've read rave reviews, and then discovered typos, poor grammar, and other problems when I've attempted to read the book. This makes me insane. I'd write negative reviews, but I don't want to spend my time trashing other writers.

Or maybe the ebooks will basically become "query letters" - and everyone can slam their books up, but only a few will gain enough acceptance to make money.

(shrug)

~Sheri

[K.A.]

One of the first threads I read on Kindleboards concerned having some kind of 'quality assurance' for Indie books.

Unfortunately, since then the only 'seal of approval' cost $150 - and wasn't backed up in any way. The author would simply buy it.

It is difficult to get reviews - the review blogs are backed up. I've got ARCs out since July with no response.

[Sharon]

I don't think there is a bubble to burst for most of us...

...I think the indie market might experience a slow down purely because well-written indie books are hard to find. I can't tell you how many times I've read rave reviews, and then discovered typos, poor grammar, and other problems when I've attempted to read the book. This makes me insane. I'd write negative reviews, but I don't want to spend my time trashing other writers...

Sad but true in both cases, Sheri...

[K.A.]

I've found a few good ones, by sampling MANY books. After 2 years on authonomy, I can usually tell I'm not going to like a book just by the blurb. I avoid anything written in first person as a matter of habit.

[Amos]

Wow.

[Sharon]

I don't mind first person POV, as long as it is well written.

And since I have pretty much abandoned KB I am also finding some pretty good indie books...

[Patricia]

What is KB?

When I do read fiction, I prefer by far first-person narratives.

[K.A.]

To each their own tastes, Patrica.

KB = Kindle Boards.

There are a couple of authors whose 1st person doesn't bother me, Elizabeth Peters, Dick Frances and...?

What I've found, from my years on Authonomy, is that beginning writers choose 1st person because it looks 'easy' but they lose control of the narrative almost immediately.

I can usually tell in the first page if they are going to make it work or not.

That's why sampling is SO important!

The other thing that turns me off is 3rd person with 'head hopping.' I'm trying to edit one now for a friend and it's driving me nuts. I've found I can't keep track of the characters. The PoV shifts mid-paragraph at times and goes from 1st to 2nd to Omni to 3rd sometimes all in the same chapter.

The pages are bleeding pink highlighter.

[Andre Jute]

In Writing a Thriller I advise beginners to choose the god's eye view of third person impersonal until they learn to control their characters and their story. I agree with Kat: little in newbie and indie lit so tiresome as the question "WTF is saying/seeing this?"

POV is just one of those things that seem incredibly easy when you can do it, and incredibly difficult until you've had enough practice not to notice that suddenly you're doing it right.

When a writer changes horses in midstream he'd better signal his intention clearly to the reader, or have a bloody good reason for not doing it.

Sierra and her co-author, who've long since forgotten why this is difficult, are famous for using very effective multiple PsOV but when I dipped into The Prettiest Feathers I was pleased to discover they give each separate character a separate chapter, and don't play any silly tricks on the reader just because they can. Professionals don't.

The problem with amateurs is that their POV errors look like several red herrings too far, and irritate accordingly.

[K.A.]

It took me some time to get the hang of PoV - I'm still hesitant to tackle 1st person in anything except a short story. It's much trickier than it looks.

Even after I had 3rd down there are always a few spots where things shift out of focus.

I'll recommend your book to my friend. Maybe it will help him - he's a college professor - he may not take kindly to the suggestion. LOL

His first book was trade published and I was appalled at the head-hopping and other editing issues they let pass.