ROBUST discussion
Book Talk & Exchange of Views
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How many novels will be published this year? No matter, precisely, it will be too many.
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That's an interesting and scary link, Andre. It drives home the unspoken point that marketing/promotion skills are more important than ever. But for some of us (me, anyway), that doesn't come naturally or even at all. I'd be comfortable with good, old-fashioned advertising, but who can afford that? Most of us are just sticking notes in bottles and setting them afloat in the hope that someone finds them.
Mod
http://coolmainpress.com/ajwriting/ar...
from Bella Street:
"I’m actually excited about the flurry of publishing–and yes, I’m an author. I’ve done it both ways–trad and indie, and indie is hands down the way to go (btw I have your book on my Kindle because I was sooo disappointed in GWTDT that I needed some solace).
Your figures above prove trad publishing is inefficient, so let the market do its work. Cream will rise to the top and readers will find good books in even more and more specialized niches. If a book is truly bad, reviews and sales will tank it. Competition will do its work.
"Bottom line–let the readers be the gatekeepers (even if they are swamp hillbillies) and not a small group of people who think 93% of books selling less than 1,000 copies is acceptable."
Mod
http://coolmainpress.com/ajwriting/ar...
to Bella Street:
I’m a big fan of markets, Bella. Trad publishing, under all three the arrangements I described in the Slush Pile articles, starting at
http://coolmainpress.com/ajwriting/ar...
was and is a marketplace. A marketplace operating on taste will display inefficiencies; the only place I’ve ever seen a perfect market was in a college classroom, where I was telling jokes about it. But at least among the inefficiencies there was selection for quality and marketability. On the other hand, the system the Big Six trad publishers operate currently is equally clearly perverted, exclusionary, and not self-renewing.
However, I don’t conclude, as you appear to do, that this efflorescence of publishing means that more than 7% of books published will sell more than a 1000 copies. How can it unless the number of books sold has increased faster than the number of novels published? Books sales aren’t up more than percentage points, the number of novel published are up magnitudes. Conclusion: a much larger percentage of books than before will sell fewer than a thousand copies, or fewer than a hundred, or none at all.
I agree with Katie. The vast confluence of crap being published will make it harder for the good new writers to be noticed and survive.
However, it may well be that these incredible numbers of new books — the annual novel output of London or New York publishing every day! — is just the boil of frustration building up behind the inequitable practices of the big conglomerate publishers for the last twenty or thirty years, that once it is relieved the numbers will fall back to more manageable proportions. And that will be good, because, if my numbers in the Slush Pile articles are anywhere near valid, it will mean we have twice the number of readable books every year.
Of course, unless the market suddenly puts on a spurt, that still means that on average every writer will sell fewer copies. Twice the number of writers, same or slowly growing number of copies, inevitably means the average writer’s income will be less. Large implications loom.
Mod
We need to consider whether the number of novels extant has suddenly multiplied by near enough 35000% and accelerating, that is, can this rate of publication be sustained? Or is this a boil of pentup demand bursting, and will the numbers fall back to, say, double what they were before? Call that new stasis 20,000 new novels per annum between London and New York, rather than 1,400,000, which is what the current trend seems to be heading for.
It is because I saw this coming before it happened -- I've been waiting for it since I came into ebook in the week before Christmas last year -- that I keep trying to discuss what percentage of the new writers are writing or not writing a new book, because the ones with one book will clearly fall away and represent only a temporary disturbance in the warp of literature.
I'm not pretending that even doubling up the number of novels launched every won't cause difficulties for many writers, because clearly book sales are not accelerating at remotely near the same pace. But 20K novels per annum, instead of 10K, mights be handled, whereas 1.4m is just -- well, it is so far off the scale, it is difficult to comprehend.
I wonder what number Amazon is currently using when they talk about the number of books available on the Kindle. When I bought my first Kindle in '09, I think the number was about 600,000. Maybe knowing the current number would give us some inkling of the impact of Kindle Direct Publishing.If an Indie is in it for the money, uploading just one book might be enough to discourage future uploads. It's not a get-rich-quick scheme. There are exceptions, but I suspect that most authors are making nothing or next to it.
I suspect we're heading towards a 'two tier' system, much like with live music. Most towns/cities have a thriving local band circuit, and some music fans (including most of the people IN the bands) attend the gigs, buy the t-shirts etc. Let's face it, that's pretty much like what a lot of the new 'indie book scene' is like.
But it's not the same as being a big 'name' band, and many acts will drop out the race before they reach that status; and some will continue as a 'good local band' forever.
I don't see this development as bad necessarily; in the past, none of us could even read the book equivalent of a good local band very easily. Now it's just one-click.
Mod
Mmm. One morning at dawn a couple of weeks ago, I stopped my bike in the mall outside our local bookshop. My mind was, as is usual when I'm out riding in the night (in the daytime I generally have the pedalpals along, lots of bright chatter), disengaged or, more precisely, engaged on a story my protege Dakota Franklin is stuck on. In the window were at least a dozen books by chums and acquaintances. And you're right, James, they split neatly into the people with strictly local reputations (at most national, some even regional) and those with international reputations.
That isn't necessarily a bad thing. A guy with a local reputation probably sells as many copies of the drugs confessions of his youth as a literary hardcover by someone with an international reputation sells on the library circuit in the UK.
On the other hand, the internet turns everywhere into the same village...
I agree with Katie. The vast confluence of crap being published will make it harder for the good new writers to be noticed and survive. I don't remember using THAT word! ;)
I read a thread on another site the other day, where Indie Authors were bragging about how many books they could produce/had produced in a year.
Maybe I should have used that word.
It is so interesting to talk about where publishing may be heading. I don't think any of us really know, but it is exciting to be involved in e-book self publishing right now. At the very least, we can see a legitimate challenge to traditional bookstores and publishing practices.
Read an article today from The Daily Beast that brings up another point -- this one about what I guess could be considered the Indie reviewer. Are Amazon reviewers bringing down the standards but being more trusted than professional reviewers?Link: http://tinyurl.com/3h7z5um
Take note of what's said about the "If you liked this, you may like this..." method of recommendation used on Amazon.
Mod
Katie wrote: "I don't remember using THAT word! ;)"
Now, see, it is not every day you learn a super new word like "confluence" for the junction of sewerage pipes...
Will wrote: "It is so interesting to talk about where publishing may be heading. I don't think any of us really know, but it is exciting to be involved in e-book self publishing right now. At the very least, we..."Will,
This reply also fits with some of your other comments on how you plan to develop your web site this summer. But I agree that it is exciting and interesting to see the twists and turns in publishing. Colleen Houck started as a self-publishing author, then went to eBooks and now is selling in print. Check out her site:
http://www.tigerscursebook.com/
Her book trailer was well received by my students. Her first book in the series is never on the shelf and we all are waiting for the second. I think that all your ideas for your site are great and are what readers crave.
My students and I love books in a series. It keeps the characters in our lives. We are loath to leave them once we get to understand them and their stories. A good example of this is the new Stephanie Meyer book The Twilight Saga: The Official Illustrated Guide which has been on the NYT best seller list for 4 weeks. I make this point just as an example of the reader never having enough of their favorite characters not necessarily because I may like or dislike those books.
Like you I can not wait for summer to begin so I can read until my eyes blur and write reviews until my fingers freeze in keyboard position; well along with all my gardening too.
Margie,I only have eight more days of school! Almost there. One of the big reasons I got into teaching was for the summers. I finished my first two books last sumer, and I plan to write one or two short stories and start my third novel, while also working on the website. This is all fun to me, and although it will keep me busy, I won't mind.
Regarding Meyers' Illustrated Guide, I love those types of books. they give interested readers lots of god information when they finish the books. I really think the web gives us even more ways to provide extra material to our readers.
Will wrote: "Margie,I only have eight more days of school! Almost there. One of the big reasons I got into teaching was for the summers. I finished my first two books last sumer, and I plan to write one or tw..."
No truer words can be spoken when it comes to being busy; who cares as long as it is what we love to do.
Students like to extend their reading experience by going to their favorite book or author's web site or blog. They frequently share the latest with me. They are so tech savy. It's good that you will be able to start "the fun" in just 8 days. We have four more weeks and I work at least two full weeks after the kids are done and countless other hours at home but I love it!
Have you ever been to http://booktrailersforall.com?
That is something that I would like to do with my students next year.
Margie,So far, I have created a map, a log/diary written by one of my characters, several photographs of key locations from the books, the flags from the competing nations in my story, and links where people can buy the books. It is not polished-I am not an expert at website creation, but I think it adds some interesting content for my readers. I will make it public this week as soon as my second novel get approved by Amazon, B&N, and Smashwords.
(You promotional whiz kids leave me in your dust...)
Will wrote: "Margie,So far, I have created a map, a log/diary written by one of my characters, several photographs of key locations from the books, the flags from the competing nations in my story, and links ..."
I will be looking for it.
I just made my website public. I would really like to see what some of you think about it.https://sites.google.com/site/anabars...
Thanks
http://coolmainpress.com/ajwriting/ar...
I suggest you read this. It is the symptom of a quantum change in our profession, and in the avocation of our friends the readers.