The History Book Club discussion
AMERICAN DEMOCRACY - GOVERNMENT
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17. LEGACY OF ASHES ~ CHAPTERS 49 - 50 (486- 516) (04/25/11 - 05/01/11) ~ No spoilers, please
I was a little surprised at the end; he actually seemed upbeat! Two things that I found really interesting is that the CIA is mostly young people and now many go into the private sector. This is bad indeed.
Mod
Yeah, I didn't see it coming. Intelligence is vital, so I hope something positive happens.In the last chapters he was really attacking the CIA and how the Homeland Security was not solving the problem, but just moving the pieces around.
I think that is true. I was dubious from the beginning about creating another bureaucracy. I think intelligence needed reform due to 9/11, but not exactly what I had in mind...
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Bentley wrote: "I think he had an hypothesis which in many ways he proved with the sources cited; but then at the end he seemed to be backing away from his own bleak outlook to wrap it up so that folks still had s..."Good point, the editor/publisher might have had some input on this. It felt a little awkward.
The ending was not what I expected, he just sort of stopped. I was anticipating some recommendations given the path of the rest of the book. Seemed odd. I was also surprised that he wasn't more critical of GW Bush, given his treatment of the other presidents in the book.
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Or maybe his own personal political beliefs? it was noticable.
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Petraeus 'next head of CIA', Panetta to lead Pentagon
Gen David Petraeus, the US head of international forces in Afghanistan, will be nominated as CIA director when its chief moves to head the Pentagon, unnamed US officials have said.
Article: BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-ca...
Here is an article from Mail Online:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/artic...
It appears that the job that Petraeus really wanted was to be Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
It appears as quoted:
The 59-year-old general has turned down a number of high-profile military jobs in the last year – including the top Nato position in Brussels – in the hope of succeeding Admiral Mike Mullen at the Pentagon.
Fits quite nicely. Another general moves into the CIA chair. He might in for a shock.
Mod
I am still thinking about these choices and while I am not sure who I would suggest I am not convinced a military man is the right choice. After reading this book I am more concerned about the quality of people doing intelligence gathering and analysis and developing people who understand cultures and can infiltrate as part of their fact gathering mission. Regime change, not so much, it just doesn't seem to be successful and I have a hard time seeing Petraeus having other than a military perspective. I mean, it's like asking a surgeon if the tumor should be removed or treated non-surgically. What kind of answer do you expect? And why Panetta for defense, also seems like an odd choice.
My only guess for Panetta is that he is beltway insider and knows how to cut a budget, a policy that Obama wants to see done. I agree Alisa. I say it is shocking because many people with equal status and experience tried to reform the CIA and got nothing. How does he recruit good people? Tap the military? I'm not sure it is the best way to go. He might have some great connections in the military intelligence and private sector that could help. And, as the author suggests, what kind of influence does the CIA really have now with Homeland Security and the private sector?
I wonder how hard it was for Obama to get a replacement?
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I wonder what McChrystal is doing these days? I worry about the military perspective that is really part and parcel of who is he and has been for all of these years (Petraeus).
Shouldn't we be looking for someone who has the goals you described Alisa?
Everybody says that Panetta is a born administrator; a real talent and I guess maybe at the Pentagon that is what is needed but he seems to be a totally different kind of choice than let us say Gates was.
Mod
For sure Bryan; he may change how things get done post haste in terms of organizational structure.
Bentley wrote: "I think that these were the best choices that Obama had; are they the best choices for these jobs...that is the different question. I wonder what McChrystal is doing these days? I worry about ..."
Yeah, I put Panetta in the league with Rumsfeld, same kind of background.
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Bentley wrote: "Yes; but vastly different personalities."Exactly.
Back to Petraeus, we won't know a lot of what he will be doing since it is based on secrecy...except the really bad stuff.
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And covert ops might focus differently than in the past; possibly less on regime change and more on hit and run against terrorists. Also, with Afghanistan and Iraq, there is no feeling of "invincibility" that Dulles had in the 1950s. One would hope.
Here is a very good article from the Council on Foreign Relations:http://www.cfr.org/united-states/crum...
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All of a sudden the Panetta and Petraeus moves make a lot more sense after tonight's news. Remarkable, and yes a big success for the CIA and the military.
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Indeed and it might help Obama's chances in 2012, but that is pretty far away. I'd say this ranks up there with the Cuban Missile Crisis as one of the high points of the CIA.
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Bentley wrote: "I think higher frankly; probably their finest achievement; remember this person caused 3000 Americans to die while only going to work."You make an excellent point.
The author will have to write a sequel or a new afterward if there is a reprint; we would love to learn how it was done, but I imagine it won't be for awhile with the security issues.
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Bentley wrote: "No, this security operation and the how tos will not see the light of day nor should they - next question - ...where is Dr Ayman al- Zahiri?"They might in say 20-50 years. I would think al-Zahiri is next and hope the CIA can pull off another one, especially with Petraeus in charge. Will be interesting.
Mod
It is sad and I do wish we could end this.I wonder about Pakistan in all of this?? Did they know he was in the compound? Did they work with us? How much does the CIA have on Pakistan?
You have to think they know more about Pakistan now after this mission. Someone, probably more than one, put themselves at risk to share the extent of information which allowed the US to find and eliminate Bin Laden. The question I am asking is how could the Pakistani's NOT know where he was given that he was living among retired former military? It will be interesting to see what happens over there in the aftermath of this.
I'm thinking the same thing, Alisa, hmmm...in a million dollar compound in a neighborhood with retired military officers. On the surface, it doesn't look good.
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Hopefully it was someone in the neighborhood who snitched. Maybe someone caught wind of the fact that the CIA was onto Bin Laden's location and wanted to avoid becoming collateral damage in a bombing raid. Cynical view perhaps but plausible.
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However, it appears that Pakistan gave the United States the initial lead. Bin Laden was living right in the open - 100KM from Pakistan's capitol.
The American Special Forces, task forces, etc went in on their own. I am not sure that you saw some of the initial reports of this engagement reported as being on Twitter when it occurred.
Some IT consultant who lived near by wrote on twitter that they heard a helicopter overhead which was very unusual and that they feared something nasty was coming down. They reported hearing gunshots - a gun fight and then quiet. He was twittering no less when this was happening - this has been termed the first news report (lol).
Twitter, crazy, huh? In this social media world, few things are secret; I'm glad he did not put it together at the time.
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I was reading an article on the Council of Foreign Relations site that Pakistan does not know what the CIA is doing in their own country. We are not sharing.Here is the article:
http://www.cfr.org/pakistan/more-tens...
Mod
Great article by the way Bryan and this is about the size of it:
"Many Americans, convinced that Pakistan has done less than it might to confront radical militants and terrorists, see their worst suspicions confirmed by the fact that bin Laden lived in a large, well-protected compound right under the Pakistani military's nose. Either Pakistan's intelligence service is terribly incompetent, fatally compromised, or both, raising questions about its utility as a partner."
And at this point, Pakistan says their intelligence community did not know and are very embarrassed.I'd be a little dubious before I read our book. Now, I can actually believe it.
Whatever Pakistan intelligence did or did not know had to have been at their own choosing. I find it unbelievable that OBL could build a walled and gated mansion amidst retired military officers without being noticed or anyone knowing who was building it. It's beyond the pale. Maybe it escaped the attention of their intelligence community, as Bryan points out we know these things can happen, but to suggest that no one knew is incomprehensible to me. I think they did not want to know and had plenty of reasons for maintaining their ignorance. The quote you pulled from the article is spot on, Bentley.
I agree, Alisa, OBL is a special case; I think it is hard to miss him or someone did not know. I read the last sentence of Bentley's quote, and at times, according to the author, the same could be said of the CIA.
I think Tim Weiner would agree with that, Bryan!
Mod
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MG8qOz...
We need to open the program today by congratulating President Obama. President Obama has done something extremely effective, and when he does, this needs to be pointed out. President Obama has continued the Bush policies of keeping a military presence in the Middle East. He did not scrub the mission to get Bin Laden. In fact, it may be that President Obama single-handedly came up with the technique in order to pull this off.
You see, the military wanted to go in there and bomb like they always do. They wanted to go in there and drop missiles and launch bombs, a number of totally destructive techniques here. But President Obama, perhaps the only qualified member in the room to deal with this, insisted on the Special Forces. No one else thought of that. Not a single intelligence advisor, not a single national security advisor, not a single military advisor came up with the idea of using SEAL Team 6 or any of the Special Forces.
Our military wanted to go in there and just scorch the earth, leaving no evidence of anything after the mission. But President Obama single-handedly understood what was at stake here. He alone understood the need to get DNA to prove the death. Obama alone understood the aftermath, alone understood that there would be doubting Thomases if the place was just obliterated and no evidence was to be found. According to news reports, not one member of the military, not General Petraeus, nobody in the intel community, nobody had the slightest idea of going in there and using Special Forces. It was President Obama, single-handedly and alone, who came up with the strategy that brought about the effective assassination of Osama Bin Laden
Source: The Atlantic
Was he sincere or sarcastic?
The History Book Club
Books mentioned in this topic
The First World War (other topics)Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (other topics)
Authors mentioned in this topic
John Keegan (other topics)Tim Weiner (other topics)
For the week of April 25th - May 1st, we are reading approximately the next 30 pages of Legacy of Ashes.
This thread will discuss the following chapters and pages:
Week Seventeen - April 25th - May 1st -> FORTY-NINE, FIFTY and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS p. 486 - 516
FORTY-NINE - A Grave Mistake and FIFTY - The Burial Ceremony and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Remember folks, these weekly non spoiler threads are just that - non spoiler. There are many other threads where "spoiler information" can be placed including the glossary and any of the other supplemental threads.
We will open up a thread for each week's reading. Please make sure to post in the particular thread dedicated to those specific chapters and page numbers to avoid spoilers. We will also open up supplemental threads as we have done for other spotlighted reads.
We kicked off this book on January 3rd. We look forward to your participation. Amazon, Barnes and Noble and other noted on line booksellers do have copies of the book and shipment can be expedited. The book can also be obtained easily at your local library, on iTunes for the ipad, etc. However, be careful, some audible formats are abridged and not unabridged.
There is still a little time remaining to obtain the book and get started. There is no rush and we are thrilled to have you join us. It is never too late to get started and/or to post.
Welcome,
~Bentley
Week of April 25th (Week Seventeen of our Discussion)
Week Seventeen - April 25th - May 1st -> FORTY-NINE, FIFTY and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS p. 486 - 516
FORTY-NINE - A Grave Mistake and FIFTY - The Burial Ceremony and ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This is a link to the complete table of contents and syllabus thread:
http://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/4...
We are off to a good beginning.
TO SEE ALL WEEK'S THREADS SELECT VIEW ALL
Remember this is a non spoiler thread.