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Smart Baseball
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Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball - Keith Law - 5 Stars
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I understand sabermetrics, but I don't really like what it is doing to the pleasure of watching a game. Everyone these days seems to be swinging for the fence, and much of the intricacies that were really exciting are nearly gone (stealing bases, stealing home!, hit and runs, bunts, etc.)I also think there is value in baseball knowledge and experience of people who played the game. These days, metrics departments are overriding experienced managing, and sometimes the managers are not even "in charge" of making moves. To me, I "get" the new trend but I don't really like it much.
Back in the Moneyball days, sabermetrics was new and gave the A's an edge, but if everyone manages by statistics, how do they gain an advantage? I also think it tends to mean the players are treated as cogs in a machine instead of human beings.
I hope I am not coming off as confrontational - I don't mean it that way. I enjoy discussing baseball with other fans. I may read the book, since I always try to be open to new ideas. Thanks for the review!
Joy D wrote: "I understand sabermetrics, but I don't really like what it is doing to the pleasure of watching a game. Everyone these days seems to be swinging for the fence, and much of the intricacies that were..."You are not coming off as confrontational at all. I enjoy discussing baseball, or most topics, as well. I hope I don't come across as mansplaining or not open to counter arguments.
I agree with your assessment that the transformation in the game has taken away from some of the excitement of the game such as base stealing. The problem with base stealing, statistically, is you have to have at least a 75% success rate for it to work positively for you team in runs scored over the course of a season. A caught stealing is 3x as harmful as 1 successful stolen base. (figures are approximate) As you know, MLB is taking steps to increase the success rate of stolen bases with the amount of pickoff attempts and larger bases.
Statistically, hard hit balls have a higher percentage chance of getting on base vs softer hit balls. Also, line drives have a higher percentage of getting on base vs both ground balls and line drives. So, while it appears everyone is going for home runs, they are really trying to hit the ball hard and, in the air.
At the heart of Moneyball, is economics. Finding an undervalued commodity. They found OBP. As more and more stats are coming in through Statcast, teams have to try and decide what is important and how to build a team. So yes, it's harder to find undervalued commodities, but they exist, and new ones will be created as the game changes. Smart Baseball shows how the majority of the information the teams are using is proprietary and there is a huge gap between teams and the public in data and evaluation.
Now, all that said, is all this the end all be all? Of course not. Some formula might come along that shows us that all that information is incorrect such as valuing high RBI totals is not the best way to evaluate a hitter.
Where I differ in the thought process of all the data. The data is from large sample sizes and shows the best way to win over 162 games. Game 7 elimination game.... got to find a way to win. You don't get a large sample size to even out the projections. You get this one play, this one batter, this one pitch.
I agree with your last paragraph 100 percent. I can tell you my experience from watching my SF Giants, which has gone through the "stats" period for the past 7 years (2018 - 20024), before Buster Posey took over and restored some sanity to upper management. The constantly were looking for guys off the "scrap heap" - trying to save money and win games at the same time. It worked exactly once, in 2021.
In my view defense is undervalued in the stats-based method. They figure that they "know" exactly where someone is going to hit the ball, so "positioning" the players is going to offset the need for guys who can actually field. Brilliant defense can be exciting to watch! We now have Matt Chapman at 3rd - watch him play sometime. He's amazing. The year they won so many games, they had inherited defenders from the previous regime, such as Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, and a few more. One year, they actually started two random guys they had just picked up on OPENING DAY - hadn't even been in Spring Training with them. Unbelievable. Sigh.
The other issue is pitching. The starting pitchers are now expected to be fireballers or at least to throw as hard as they can for the few innings they get to pitch. This wears out the bull pen over the course of the season, as opposed to say, letting the starter go deep into a game. I could go on and on (but I'll spare you).
Joy D wrote: "I agree with your last paragraph 100 percent. I can tell you my experience from watching my SF Giants, which has gone through the "stats" period for the past 7 years (2018 - 20024), before Buster..."
Since Posey is from my hometown and we went to school together, I have followed him and the Giants. I am excited he is running the Giants now.
The Giants have had trouble bringing big stars to San Fran recently. I think this partly due to the park being super pitcher friendly (why they get a lot of 1 year deal pitchers who then go sign big contracts elsewhere) and I think there has to be something off putting about the previous front office. But that is just a guess.
Not all analytics are created equal. Two teams can get the same data but interpret it differently or one thinks they see something undervalued which leads to different philosophies. One might work and one might not. I think the Giants are also trying to recreate 2010. A bunch of young low payroll guys. See also Astros but their division is not as difficult.
The Giants do have the longest streak of different starter at a position on Opening Day. I think its Left Field. 17 or 18 years of a different starter on Opening Day. That's not good at all. haha.
Fielding is an undervalued commodity and Smart Baseball touches on that, not having the data or even the methods to acquire the correct data to accurately measure fielding. Things like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) being the best thing the public has but it isn't great. Things like Statcast will is revolutionizing how fielding is measured and valued. The Reds recently tried to devalue the middle infield and strengthen the corner infield positions defensively. It didn't work. Their hypothesis was incorrect. Enter Elly De La Cruz.
Chapman is one of my favorite players and he is overlooked because of the park he plays in. But yes, he is a top 3b defensively. 5th best 3b by DRS in 2025 which was a down year for him and best 3b defensively in 2024 by DRS. He also tied for MLB lead in errors by a 3b in 2024, showing that stats like errors don't tell you how good/bad a fielder actually is.
I do love this conversation
Joy D wrote: "I agree with your last paragraph 100 percent. I can tell you my experience from watching my SF Giants, which has gone through the "stats" period for the past 7 years (2018 - 20024), before Buster..."
Starting Pitching is another area that I think more data and correct data can help with. Throwing hard is easier to teach than movement/location, (throwing hard is now converting more to spin rate. A harder ball with less spin actually is easier to hit than a bit slower and more spin). I hate the idea of closers and not using your best relievers in the biggest part of the game. (also covered in the book) Until we value/pay relivers on something besides saves, that will never change. But pitching is becoming a different position that it was even 10 years ago. A starter is get through the order twice, maybe 3 times, so I see relievers turning back into multi-inning guys, trying to get through the lineup at least once. Most relivers are failed starters because they couldn't get through a lineup more than once.
Speaking of pitching, another part of baseball that needs a good look is the "win." Currently (as well as historically) you have to go 5 innings to qualify for a win and leave the game with the lead. Due to pitchers going less innings, the win can be pretty meaningless, and a reliever getting a win when throwing only a handful of pitches is ridiculous. They need to award the win to the most effective pitcher - a change is needed in my opinion. The Giants have had a huge number of left fielders on starting day - you are absolutely right! This I think will change now that Posey is in charge. I have great respect for him. He is smart AND a great (future Hall of Fame) player. I love to hear that you went to school with him! He comes across as such a nice guy and has integrity to boot. Don't find that combination very often anymore.
Matt Chapman gets to so many balls others would not even reach, so I'm not at all worried about number of errors. Great fielders can sometimes get undeserved errors just based on whatever official scorer is feeling on that day (and some of them have obvious "hometown" biases) just because they get to a ball others would miss entirely.
Are you a Braves fan?
Joy D wrote: "Speaking of pitching, another part of baseball that needs a good look is the "win." Currently (as well as historically) you have to go 5 innings to qualify for a win and leave the game with the lea..."Yes, I am a Braves fan. I am a baseball fan first though. I asked a friend if the Braves moved or dissolved, would he still watch baseball. He said no. I would. I would still watch at least 1 game a day. But the Braves are my team. I think they are built well but it feels as though they lack some leadership and then injuries combined with inconvenient slumps killed last year. Looking for a rebound year.
I agree with wins but I feel wins is a useless stat to begin with. Why does one player get credited with a "win" based on arbitrary innings and runs. I like FIP (fielding independent pitching), opponents batting average (OBA I think) and of course, I'm a WAR fan. Wins Above Replacement, although it is a counting stat so its in relation to games plays and position.
Buster was a great guy in high school. We didn't know each other well, though we have talked. I have a copy of the school newspaper where he signed with FSU. Yes I was on the journalism staff. He was just kind and down to earth. His sister was an amazing softball player. At Valdosta State University, she hit a home run cycle (solo, 2 run, 3 run and grand slam) between a double header. In school, we knew Posey was good, but we had no idea how good. He didn't flaunt it.
I am hoping to go to a Savannah Banana game this year.
My favorite team is the SF Giants, but I, like you, I a baseball fan in general. I have a sports package that gives me access to lots of baseball games, and I'm not picky about what game I watch. I think WAR is a good idea, but I wonder about how it is calculated, and what makes it accurate. I put the book on my TBR so I can find out more about the current stats.
The Savannah Bananas is a great name! We have the Reno Aces here locally. I go to a few games a season.
Joy D wrote: "My favorite team is the SF Giants, but I, like you, I a baseball fan in general. I have a sports package that gives me access to lots of baseball games, and I'm not picky about what game I watch. ..."
For minor league teams we have all the braves minor league teams here in Georgia. If you have not heard of the Savannah banana then look them up. They are also now doing what they call a world tour and they are selling out major league stadiums. Banana Ball: The Unbelievably True Story of the Savannah Bananas
Will do! Thanks for the link.
I am a sabermetrics fan, basically the statistical analysis of baseball performance and trying to find the true value of a player's skill, ability, and influence on the game. This had led to a revolution in the sport, gaining traction with Moneyball Athletics in the early 2000's but existed well before. Sabermetrics challenge traditional view of stats and performance and even how the game is talked about, and baseball, being the most tradition loving of the sports, has fought back hard, even now, though tradition is losing.
Keith Law, one of the early statistician departments in baseball, working for the Blue Jays. Yes, I said Law was the statistician department, not that he worked in the department. Law explains the folly of the traditional view of performance, explains in depth what the new view is and means, and then explains how the sport is changing, changing to a point where today, he could not even work in the field he previously managed alone.
A beautiful book that I wish all baseball fans would read. I regularly have these type debates with friends and co-workers as the spout runs batted in and stolen bases and they ignore stats they don't understand such as wins above replacement and weighted runs created plus. But I also believe, for the most part, this book is preaching to the choir.
Despite already being a devout believer in the sabermetrics evolution, I did learn and understand some things deeper from an insider perspective, especially when it comes to combing through terabytes of data per year and the evolution of Statcast.
A great book for baseball fans.