Welcome to The Midnight Bell (a virtual pub and general discussion thread) (2024)

[Alwynne]

Any theories on why the turnout was so low?

[Roman Clodia]

Alwynne wrote: "Any theories on why the turnout was so low?"

It fits with all the polls: so much apathy, disillusion, 'they're all the same' feelings. Not good. And noticeable that Labour majorities are pretty low.

[Roman Clodia]

George Galloway gone - Neil Kinnock enjoying that!

Lee Anderson will be unbearable.

[Alwynne]

Totally, seems like a preening, arrogant man with repellent beliefs. But glad to see the back of Galloway too, similar type! Looks as if Farage up soon.

[Alwynne]

The Tory guy in Basildon looks as if he's going to cry.

[Roman Clodia]

So does Grant Schapps!

[Roman Clodia]

Blast, IDS survives after Labour made a mess of their candidates.

[Roman Clodia]

Isn't it noticeable how varied Labour accents are against posh Tory voices?

[Alwynne]

Roman Clodia wrote: "Isn't it noticeable how varied Labour accents are against posh Tory voices?"

Good point, interesting that a number of the Reform reps also sound quite posh. Grant Shapps does look gutted, 19 years is a long time.

[Alwynne]

Although rather disingenuous of him to blame the Tory defeats on their internal squabbles rather than the damage wrought by their policies.

[Alwynne]

Bloody Farage, he's going to be a pain going forward.

[Roman Clodia]

So sick of his voice already!

[Alwynne]

I know, he's so oily and fake, and potentially very dangerous. And that speech so arrogant and self-serving.

[Roman Clodia]

Richard Tice as well... but Mordaunt out! She was one I wanted to see lose.

[Alwynne]

Definitely good to see, presumably that scuppers her ambitions?

[Alwynne]

I wanted Braverman to go, so that was a blow.

[Roman Clodia]

Rishi Sunak concedes!

Surprised Jeremy Hunt has survived. Braverman will launch a civil war, I'm sure.

[Alwynne]

Sunak and Hunt gave surprisingly reasonable speeches. I suppose conceding is less galling than being informed of defeat.

[Alwynne]

It's incredible though, so much overturned. I never imagined a few years ago that Labour could make such an amazing comeback in Scotland.

[Roman Clodia]

Me too. And Jacob R-M gone!

[Alwynne]

And Rees-Mogg finally out, so so pleasing. Feel I should now be setting off fireworks or running amok in the street.

[Roman Clodia]

Haha! I need to get a couple of hours sleep before getting to work. Thanks for your company - such a relief, and very ready to celebrate tomorrow.

[Alwynne]

Actually more emotional than I'd anticipated, and so good to have someone in power talk about public service, duty and hard work. I feel worried for Starmer though, the country's in a total mess. The international scene is also increasingly frightening. But he seems like a very grounded person.

[Sonia]

A healthy 72.41% turnout has given my constituency LibDem candidate a 634 majority over the incumbent Conservative. Conservative vote was down 24.9% from last election. At the last election it was the safest Conservative seat in the country. Suprised, but very pleased with the result.

[Alwynne]

That's great Sonia, think there's been quite a bit of tactical voting this time round, I know there have been conversations between Labour and the Lib Dems on helping each other defeat Conservative candidates.

[Alwynne]

Roman Clodia wrote: "Haha! I need to get a couple of hours sleep before getting to work. Thanks for your company - such a relief, and very ready to celebrate tomorrow."

Me too, definitely flagging now! And thanks to you too.

[Roman Clodia]

Alwynne wrote: "Actually more emotional than I'd anticipated"


Me too - I was so terrified of things going wrong and Tories slipping back into power.

I'm logging off now, will catch up with you later 🎇🎆💃💃🎶💟

[Hester]

well done to you both for staying up . I'm watching the coverage 2 hours behind having got up and hour ago...love to watch the felling of timber ....coffee and toast and feet up

[Roman Clodia]

Grr, alarm gone off and have to drag myself into work!

Am I right that we haven't had a declaration from Braintree yet? (The most inappropriate constituency name for the misnamed James Cleverly!)

[Roman Clodia]

Ah, see I'm wrong and Cleverly is a survivor alongside Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch.

Also pleased that Johnny Mercer is gone, beaten by the ex-Royal Marine whose reputation he attacked. (Mr RC is an ex-marine so army vs. navy went down well here!)

[Blaine]

My big surprise was Labour's vote share of less than 34%. Combined with the low turnout it says to me that they have a huge parliamentary majority but haven't won over the country. They have 4 years to use their majority to do that.

I understand the point about the Reform vote as a protest vote, but what are they protesting against? A Tory government that wasn't right wing enough? The wrong Brexit? An insufficiently brutal immigration policy? A lot of ink has been spilled puzzling about Trump voters and I still don't fully understand that phenomenon. Now we seem to have a similar disaffected group here, many of whom are the youngest voters. And Labour wants to give the vote to 16 year olds?!

Now to start reading the pundits.

[Hester]

I'm simply enjoying the " to camera" pieces ...."Labour is cock a hoop in Scotland " against a background of a near empty sports hall with someone looking for the toilet . A man behind Starmers wife , specs half way down his nose in a lilac shirt looking bewildered not ecstatic , some of the outfits of the returning officers ( and hats) , people wandering in front of the static camera trained on 10 Downing Street , the no show of George Galloway , Lizzie Truss slow handicapped and late to the podium ....Jeremy Vine scampering across the broken swing o meter ..

[Blaine]

Great observations!

[Roman Clodia]

Hester wrote: "I'm simply enjoying the " to camera" pieces ...."

Haha, yes, some of those returning officers hats were tremendous.

I'm so sad I missed Truss ☹️ I wanted to enjoy every second of her defeat.

Jeremy Vine is fantastic, isn't he, especially with that hexagon road to no.10. And yes when the Labour swing went beyond what the swingometer could deal with!

[Roman Clodia]

Ben wrote: "I understand the point about the Reform vote as a protest vote, but what are they protesting against? A Tory government that wasn't right wing enough? The wrong Brexit? An insufficiently brutal immigration policy?

All the above? I'm not sure that applying logic really gets to grips with this question. For example, in Farage's Clacton where they want to 'get my country back' and are obsessed with immigration, the constituency ethnicity is 96% white.

Some places complain about lack of housing and blame it on 'immigrants' but actually huge percentages are second homes owned by the rich and left empty for 50 weeks a year or rented out as Air BnB places.

[Stephen]

I bailed out at 2 am and woke just after 9.
Well done to those who managed to stay up.

Overall pleased with result and glad that the Reform vote didn’t materialise into a dozen or so seats. 4 is more than enough.
I believe it is a protest vote.
Interestingly, in Scotland, their vote share was significantly less, under 7 % I think.

Labour have come back strongly in Scotland but the argument and will for independence is still strong, particularly in the younger voter (Apologies for the broad brush).

Over to Labour, as others have said, it is an extremely challenging hand they have been dealt domestically and internationally.
I hope that the idea of change will now become more of a reality.

[Roman Clodia]

I have the feeling that if I were Scottish I'd have a lot of time for the independence debate, especially after Brexit. And Stephen Flynn is fantastic - glad he held his seat as he's a good voice in Westminster. And very outspoken against Farage and Reform.

[Alwynne]

Ben wrote: "My big surprise was Labour's vote share of less than 34%. Combined with the low turnout it says to me that they have a huge parliamentary majority but haven't won over the country. They have 4 year..."

Protest votes are always a bit mystifying, as are spoilt ballots. But part of it will be Tory voters signalling displeasure in things like the way that their party has presided over, indeed brought about, things like a cost-of-living crisis. Some will be protesting immigration. It's a weird mentality.

Still there's something reassuring about a leader named after Keir Hardie, and he does have an old-school Labour feel for all the talk of change, and seems to have a lot more substance than Blair.

[Alwynne]

Also Starmer's speech about public service had me in tears, is it just me or was his stance reminiscent of the Jewish concept of Tikkun olam and the idea of commitment to renewal, repair, restoration of the world through good work, duty etc?

[Alwynne]

Roman Clodia wrote: "Ah, see I'm wrong and Cleverly is a survivor alongside Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch.

Also pleased that Johnny Mercer is gone, beaten by the ex-Royal Marine whos..."

I'm fairly disgusted that people like Priti Patel held on, not only dangerous in her views but blinkered and intellectually deeply suspect.

[Roman Clodia]

Alwynne wrote: "Also Starmer's speech about public service had me in tears, is it just me or was his stance reminiscent of the Jewish concept of Tikkun olam and the idea of commitment to renewal, repair, restorati..."

Nice. I'm sure you know his wife is Jewish and her father is still alive so could well be.

[Nigeyb]

Considering the scale of Labour’s defeat in 2019 the extent to which the Tories squandered that goodwill is extraordinary...Partygate, Truss crashing the economy, VIP lanes for PPE, betting on the election date etc etc (the list just goes on and on)

It is also the result of strong leadership from KS that began with sorting out the party’s internal problems. The targeting of seats seems to have been particularly successful, if you look at the 5% swing away from Labour in non-target seats like Hove v the 19/20 per cent swings from Tory to Lab in other seats.

Some people have lent their votes to Labour and would prefer more radicalism but the early legislation will be Rwanda/railways/fair work agency/onshore wind/housing etc so let’s see how that goes down

The millions who voted Reform is a direct result of the growth in ineqality under Tories and the cutting of public services to the bone. Reform voters are the left behinds and easy meat for opportunists like Farage. Got to give them hope and a stake in the future.

A massive challenge given what Labour have inherited so got to be bold and decisive

[Hester]

Agree Nigel . I hope we have a period of policy not personality .

A big issue is the structural framework needed to deliver the long term aims Starmer is hoping to prioritise . So much has been stripped out . So much is tied to a short term annual budgeting round which absorbs a lot of effort, stifles creative thinking and closes down anything but the short term bottom line. Longer term plans can be sabotaged by fiscal firefighting . Local government has been eviscerated and we now have a handful of unaccountable private companies providing a vast array of backroom services where scrutiny is opaque . Neither is easy to tackle and , although necessary , is not a vote winner . Finally I feel for the long term we need reform for the commons . Successive governments have been free to ignore backbenchers and too many MPs are too keen to be gifted a minor government post so keep quiet . As a result we have a recipe for poor legislation . it should not be left to the non elected judges or the bloated house of Lords to scrutinise bad law . The commons should do more but I can't see it happening . There's a risk we spend too much time on hereditary peers , like foxhunting under Blair ...a worthy cause but there are more pressing issues .

If the Conservatives choose a right wing leader there's a chance that Farage will be courted by them and a deal struck : unless the left behind are appeased , which means big investment in deprived areas , we could see a reversal next time

[Roman Clodia]

Nigeyb wrote: "Reform voters are the left behinds and easy meat for opportunists like Farage. Got to give them hope and a stake in the future."

I'm sure this is likely to be one reason for the votes for Reform in somewhere like Clacton.

But I wonder about how much difference there is between a Suella Braverman and a Farage, and she's been returned for Fareham in Hampshire which doesn't seem to be high on the deprivation index. Are her constituents left behind? Or are there other reasons for her success there?

This is a genuine question and I don't know or think I know the answer - I'm just not sure there's a single linear cause behind Reform. As Stephen says above, Scotland hasn't shown much inclination for Reform in this election.

[Blaine]

Alwynne wrote: "Also Starmer's speech about public service had me in tears, is it just me or was his stance reminiscent of the Jewish concept of Tikkun olam and the idea of commitment to renewal, repair, restorati..."

I had the same reaction when Obama was inaugurated as President. And yet his eight years left me so disappointed in his lack of ambition and lack of effectiveness. I do hope Starmer has greater success.

[Blaine]

I think part of Farage's appeal is bound up in English nationalism and so doesn't play as well in the other nations.

I feel a bit disconcerted seeing repeated references to Labour's "landslide", given their small percentage of the vote and an actual decline in the number of votes since 2019. Perhaps some of that was reduced by tactical votes for the Libdems, but in absolute numbers of votes the Libdem share also slightly declined between 2019 and this year. The main change seems to be Tory votes going to Reform or staying at home. Can't wait for a more sophisticated analysis.

It will be interesting to see how support for the centre-left translates into support in the polls once Labour begins to govern.

[Roman Clodia]

All you say is true, Ben, but I also think voters have got more sophisticated and understand how the first past the post system works so are gaming it. This is the first election where I recall tactical voting being such a huge thing with all the web sites set up to enable it.

There are always doomed predictions about low turnout after each election. There should be some investigation though into voter suppression and missing postal votes.

You're absolutely right about Farage's toxic English nationalism not playing well in the other nations.

Whatever the cautious optimism today, the British electorate is notoriously cynical and will enjoy carping and laughing at the failures more than celebrating the successes. Governing a country really is hard and hats off to Starmer and friends for trying to do something I never could!

[Sonia]

While I am super pleased about the change of government, my expectations of the next few years are very modest, as the country is in a mess.
There will be a lot of criticism of Starmer's government, that is the way of the British press and people. What I am hoping for is grown-up conversation and decisions, and for a government more willing to serve the electorate than themselves.

[Alwynne]

Ben wrote: "Alwynne wrote: "Also Starmer's speech about public service had me in tears, is it just me or was his stance reminiscent of the Jewish concept of Tikkun olam and the idea of commitment to renewal, r..."

I see what you mean Ben but going to dissent, the Obamas don't have quite the same dedication to public service if their post-presidential, celebrity-ridden lifestyle is anything to go by. And the Democrats are fairly conservative compared to the Labour Party.

[Alwynne]

Roman Clodia wrote: "All you say is true, Ben, but I also think voters have got more sophisticated and understand how the first past the post system works so are gaming it. This is the first election where I recall tac..."

Absolutely, I know it's a tradition on the Left to pick apart and almost lament our successes but I think I'm going to take a moment to bask in what is a victory, even if it's a relatively small one. Just knowing that there are people in charge not invested in capitalist necropolitics and who actually think allowing poverty to increase is a bad thing makes me feel quite gladdened.

I'm not sure btw that there is much difference between Braverman, Patel - also fairly right wing - and Farage, other than Farage is better at cashing in on people's dissatisfaction and stirring up mass support.